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Big data finds the Medieval Warm Period – no denial here

Renae

Renae

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[FONT=&quot]According to author Leo Tolstoy, born at the very end of the Little Ice Age, in quite a cold country:[/FONT]
The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he already knows, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.
​
[FONT=&quot]So, our new technical paper in GeoResJ (vol. 14, pages 36-46) will likely be ignored. Because after applying the latest big data technique to six 2,000 year-long proxy-temperature series we cannot confirm that recent warming is anything but natural – what might have occurred anyway, even if there was no industrial revolution.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Over the last few years, I’ve worked with Dr John Abbot using artificial neural networks (ANN) to forecast monthly rainfall. We now have a bunch of papers in international climate science journals showing these forecasts to be more skilful than output from general circulation models.[/FONT]
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The better part is the bottom:
[FONT=&quot]Using the proxy record from the Northern Hemisphere composite, decomposing this through signal analysis and then using the resulting component sine waves as input into an ANN, John Abbot and I generated forecasts for the period from 1830 to 2000.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Our results show up to 1°C of warming. The average divergence between the proxy temperature record and our ANN projection is just 0.09 degree Celsius. This suggests that even if there had been no industrial revolution and burning of fossil fuels, there would have still been warming through the twentieth century – to at least 1980, and of almost 1°C.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, relying on General Circulation Models, and giving us the Paris Accord, also estimates warming of approximately 1°C, but claims this is all our fault (human caused).[/FONT]
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https://www.spectator.com.au/2017/08/big-data-finds-the-medieval-warm-period-no-denial-here/
 
Renae said:
The better part is the bottom:

https://www.spectator.com.au/2017/08/big-data-finds-the-medieval-warm-period-no-denial-here/
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http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214242817300426
The largest deviation between the ANN projections and measured temperatures for six
geographically distinct regions was approximately 0.2 °C,
and from this an Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of approximately 0.6 °C was estimated.
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This is reasonably close to Lindzen Choi,
http://www-eaps.mit.edu/faculty/lindzen/236-Lindzen-Choi-2011.pdf
As a result, the climate sensitivity for a doubling of CO2 is estimated to be 0.7K
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Jesse Booth said:
Confirmation education? I'm unfamiliar with that term.
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I believe he's attempting to claim that I refuse to read or accept any information that doesn't agree with my views. Yeah, a climate, changes denier is making that argument.
 
Jesse Booth said:
Confirmation education? I'm unfamiliar with that term.
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It's that branch of education, when applied to climate, that allows us to go outside and notice things - like that it generally warms up after an ice age, generally rains after a long dry spell, and stuff like that. If you believe in that kind of thing, the AGW crowd believes you might be an imbecile. No ****.
 
Renae said:
The better part is the bottom:

https://www.spectator.com.au/2017/08/big-data-finds-the-medieval-warm-period-no-denial-here/
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Old news that is not saying what you are hoping it says.

A 2009 study by Michael E. Mann et al., examining spatial patterns of surface temperatures shown in multi-proxy reconstructions finds that the Medieval Warm Period, shows "warmth that matches or exceeds that of the past decade in some regions, but which falls well below recent levels globally."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period
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calamity said:
Old news that is not saying what you are hoping it says.
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Cherry picking?

Other studies show it was global. We really don't know for certain, but we do know it was warmer in many areas.

Besides. There is plenty of evidence that Mann has an agenda that overrides what he really knows.
 
Threegoofs said:
Once again... the Northern Hemisphere becomes the globe.

Just like the US temps in the 30s somehow disprove global warming.

Deniers really have a hard time with science.
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calamity said:
I'm sure it does. :lol:
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[h=1]Evidence of the Medieval Warm Period in Australia, New Zealand and Oceania[/h]By Sebastian Lüning Geoscientist and co-author of ‘The neglected Sun’ The climate of the pre-industrial past is of greatest importance to the ongoing climate discussion. Current climate can only be understood when interpreting it in the paleoclimatological context of the past few thousand years. Until not too long ago it was thought that the pre-industrial…

January 9, 2016 in MedievalWarmPeriod, Paleoclimatology.
 
Jack Hays said:

[h=1]Evidence of the Medieval Warm Period in Australia, New Zealand and Oceania[/h]By Sebastian Lüning Geoscientist and co-author of ‘The neglected Sun’ The climate of the pre-industrial past is of greatest importance to the ongoing climate discussion. Current climate can only be understood when interpreting it in the paleoclimatological context of the past few thousand years. Until not too long ago it was thought that the pre-industrial…

January 9, 2016 in MedievalWarmPeriod, Paleoclimatology.
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Oh, look.

They published their scientific analysis....on a denier blog.
 
Threegoofs said:
Once again... the Northern Hemisphere becomes the globe.

Just like the US temps in the 30s somehow disprove global warming.

Deniers really have a hard time with science.
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Ya'll believe the earth is heating because a trace gas went up a few hundred parts per million, but you can't believe in the MWP....

Because of politics, not science.
 
Renae said:
Ya'll believe the earth is heating because a trace gas went up a few hundred parts per million, but you can't believe in the MWP....

Because of politics, not science.
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Didn't address the point.

Typical.

And 'belief' doesn't play a role here. It's what the current science suggests. A MWP is only of interest to deniers, who figure that somehow if it exists, it means the current warming is normal. Scientists (the vast majority) know that it's not.
 
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