Page 1 of 4 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 33

Thread: Cherry Picking and AGW Advocacy

  1. #1
    Traveler

    Jack Hays's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Location
    Williamsburg, Virginia
    Last Seen
    Today @ 11:54 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    82,652
    Blog Entries
    3

    Cherry Picking and AGW Advocacy

    Steve McIntyre only posts rarely now, but as this exposition shows his powers are undiminished. What he describes here is a sort of gerrymandering of data; it's politics rather than science. The charlatanry continues with PAGES 2017.

    PAGES2017: New Cherry Pie

    Jul 11, 2017 – 11:31 PM
    Rosanne D’Arrigo once explained to an astounded National Academy of Sciences panel that you had to pick cherries if you wanted to make cherry pie – a practice followed by D’Arrigo and Jacoby who, for their reconstructions, selected tree ring chronologies which went the “right” way and discarded those that went the wrong way – a technique which will result in hockey sticks even from random red noise. Her statement caused a flurry of excitement among Climategate correspondents, but unfortunately the NAS panel didn’t address or explain the defects in this technique to the lignumphilous paleoclimate community.
    My long-standing recommendation to the paleoclimate community has been to define a class of proxy using ex ante criteria e.g. treeline black spruce chronologies, Antarctic ice cores etc., but once the ex ante criterion is selected, use a “simple” method on all members of the class. The benefits of such a procedure seem obvious, but the protocol is stubbornly resisted by the paleoclimate community. The PAGES paleoclimate community have recently published a major compilation of climate series from the past millennium, but, unfortunately, their handling of data which goes the “wrong” way is risible. Continue reading →

    The PAGES 2017 collation is a successor dataset to the PAGES 2013 collation, aspects of which I discussed a few years ago. Not included in my previous discussion was their North American tree ring collection, which stubbornly included the same stripbark bristlecone chronologies of Mann et al 1998-9, while claiming to be “independent”. In total, there were 146 North American tree ring series in PAGES2K (2013).
    PAGES2K (2017) contains almost exactly the same number (150) of North American tree ring series, but, if you look at the second tab (Table S2) of its Supplementary Information – an excerpt of which is shown below, one series after another was rejected because it had a “negative relation to temperature” . . . .

    As Rosanne D’Arrigo explained years ago, you have to pick cherries if you want to have cherry pie. Nothing has changed.
    There are other points of interest in the PAGES 2017 proxies which I’ll try discuss if I have time, inclination and energy.
    "Waste no more time arguing what a good man should be. Be one." --Marcus Aurelius

  2. #2
    Sage

    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 08:46 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    25,751

    Re: Cherry Picking and AGW Advocacy

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hays View Post
    Steve McIntyre only posts rarely now, but as this exposition shows his powers are undiminished. What he describes here is a sort of gerrymandering of data; it's politics rather than science. The charlatanry continues with PAGES 2017.

    PAGES2017: New Cherry Pie

    Jul 11, 2017 – 11:31 PM
    Rosanne D’Arrigo once explained to an astounded National Academy of Sciences panel that you had to pick cherries if you wanted to make cherry pie – a practice followed by D’Arrigo and Jacoby who, for their reconstructions, selected tree ring chronologies which went the “right” way and discarded those that went the wrong way – a technique which will result in hockey sticks even from random red noise. Her statement caused a flurry of excitement among Climategate correspondents, but unfortunately the NAS panel didn’t address or explain the defects in this technique to the lignumphilous paleoclimate community.
    My long-standing recommendation to the paleoclimate community has been to define a class of proxy using ex ante criteria e.g. treeline black spruce chronologies, Antarctic ice cores etc., but once the ex ante criterion is selected, use a “simple” method on all members of the class. The benefits of such a procedure seem obvious, but the protocol is stubbornly resisted by the paleoclimate community. The PAGES paleoclimate community have recently published a major compilation of climate series from the past millennium, but, unfortunately, their handling of data which goes the “wrong” way is risible. Continue reading →

    The PAGES 2017 collation is a successor dataset to the PAGES 2013 collation, aspects of which I discussed a few years ago. Not included in my previous discussion was their North American tree ring collection, which stubbornly included the same stripbark bristlecone chronologies of Mann et al 1998-9, while claiming to be “independent”. In total, there were 146 North American tree ring series in PAGES2K (2013).
    PAGES2K (2017) contains almost exactly the same number (150) of North American tree ring series, but, if you look at the second tab (Table S2) of its Supplementary Information – an excerpt of which is shown below, one series after another was rejected because it had a “negative relation to temperature” . . . .

    As Rosanne D’Arrigo explained years ago, you have to pick cherries if you want to have cherry pie. Nothing has changed.
    There are other points of interest in the PAGES 2017 proxies which I’ll try discuss if I have time, inclination and energy.
    WHOA!!!! ... "lignumphilous".

    Wasn't McIntyre the one who originally blew the whistle on Mann's hockey stick way back when?
    And for pretty much the same reasons I see him mention here.

    IF EVERYTHING IS IMPORTANT THEN NOTHING IS

  3. #3
    Traveler

    Jack Hays's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Location
    Williamsburg, Virginia
    Last Seen
    Today @ 11:54 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    82,652
    Blog Entries
    3

    Re: Cherry Picking and AGW Advocacy

    Quote Originally Posted by bubbabgone View Post
    WHOA!!!! ... "lignumphilous".

    Wasn't McIntyre the one who originally blew the whistle on Mann's hockey stick way back when?
    And for pretty much the same reasons I see him mention here.
    Yes. SM busted MM. It wasn't exactly the same. In the MM case, SM (and statistician Ross McKittrick) showed MM didn't understand the principles of statistics math.
    "Waste no more time arguing what a good man should be. Be one." --Marcus Aurelius

  4. #4
    Sage

    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 08:46 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    25,751

    Re: Cherry Picking and AGW Advocacy

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hays View Post
    Yes. SM busted MM. It wasn't exactly the same. In the MM case, SM (and statistician Ross McKittrick) showed MM didn't understand the principles of statistics math.
    Didn't they call attention to the actual temps spliced onto the proxies to form the blade and the cherry picked proxies that enabled the warm and cool periods to flatten out to form the handle?

    IF EVERYTHING IS IMPORTANT THEN NOTHING IS

  5. #5
    Traveler

    Jack Hays's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Location
    Williamsburg, Virginia
    Last Seen
    Today @ 11:54 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    82,652
    Blog Entries
    3

    Re: Cherry Picking and AGW Advocacy

    Quote Originally Posted by bubbabgone View Post
    Didn't they call attention to the actual temps spliced onto the proxies to form the blade and the cherry picked proxies that enabled the warm and cool periods to flatten out to form the handle?
    A lot came out as the case progressed, but SM's initial irritation was MM's statistical tomfoolery. Best account is The Hockey Stick Illusion by A.W. Montford.
    "Waste no more time arguing what a good man should be. Be one." --Marcus Aurelius

  6. #6
    Sage

    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 08:46 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    25,751

    Re: Cherry Picking and AGW Advocacy

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hays View Post
    A lot came out as the case progressed, but SM's initial irritation was MM's statistical tomfoolery. Best account is The Hockey Stick Illusion by A.W. Montford.
    I was going to mention you should expect someone to mention McIntyre isn't a climate scientist.

    I have a dozen or so books on the subject but that's not one of them. They all touch on the fraudulent hockey stick.

    I tell you, probably the best one on the subject of AGW is The Neglected Sun translated from German. Fantastic.

    IF EVERYTHING IS IMPORTANT THEN NOTHING IS

  7. #7
    Wrinkly member
    Manc Skipper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Southern England
    Last Seen
    Today @ 11:54 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Slightly Liberal
    Posts
    29,365

    Re: Cherry Picking and AGW Advocacy

    Quote Originally Posted by bubbabgone View Post
    I was going to mention you should expect someone to mention McIntyre isn't a climate scientist.

    I have a dozen or so books on the subject but that's not one of them. They all touch on the fraudulent hockey stick.

    I tell you, probably the best one on the subject of AGW is The Neglected Sun translated from German. Fantastic.
    There's a regular denial industry stealing money from the credulous. If it keeps them out of the trffic, I suppose it's got it's uses.
    Never eat anything that's served in a bucket.

    "We look to Scotland for all our ideas of civilisation." ..François-Marie Arouet. French philosopher. 1694 - 1778.

  8. #8
    Traveler

    Jack Hays's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Location
    Williamsburg, Virginia
    Last Seen
    Today @ 11:54 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    82,652
    Blog Entries
    3

    Re: Cherry Picking and AGW Advocacy

    Quote Originally Posted by bubbabgone View Post
    I was going to mention you should expect someone to mention McIntyre isn't a climate scientist.

    I have a dozen or so books on the subject but that's not one of them. They all touch on the fraudulent hockey stick.

    I tell you, probably the best one on the subject of AGW is The Neglected Sun translated from German. Fantastic.
    Thanks. Authors are allies of Svensmark, IIRC.
    "Waste no more time arguing what a good man should be. Be one." --Marcus Aurelius

  9. #9
    Traveler

    Jack Hays's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Location
    Williamsburg, Virginia
    Last Seen
    Today @ 11:54 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    82,652
    Blog Entries
    3

    Re: Cherry Picking and AGW Advocacy

    Quote Originally Posted by Manc Skipper View Post
    There's a regular denial industry stealing money from the credulous. If it keeps them out of the trffic, I suppose it's got it's uses.
    Did you ever enroll in the recommended remedial class in WW1 history?
    "Waste no more time arguing what a good man should be. Be one." --Marcus Aurelius

  10. #10
    Professor

    Join Date
    Dec 2015
    Last Seen
    08-23-17 @ 10:05 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Libertarian - Right
    Posts
    2,467

    Re: Cherry Picking and AGW Advocacy

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hays View Post
    A lot came out as the case progressed, but SM's initial irritation was MM's statistical tomfoolery. Best account is The Hockey Stick Illusion by A.W. Montford.
    There is a video of McIntyre talking about just this subject at teh 2010 International Conference on Climate Change.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqzcA7SsqSA

Page 1 of 4 123 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •