Hurricane Season is upon Us

Any forecasts? Anyone care to make a bold prediction? Here's one forecast.

CFAN’s forecast for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season

Posted on June 8, 2017 | 101 comments
by Judith Curry
Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN)’s first seasonal forecast for Atlantic hurricanes is based on a breakthrough in understanding of the impact of global climate dynamics on Atlantic hurricane activity.
Continue reading →

Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN)’s first seasonal forecast for Atlantic hurricanes is based on a breakthrough in understanding of the impact of global climate dynamics on Atlantic hurricane activity.
Research conducted by Senior Scientist Jim Johnstone at my company Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) has identified skillful new predictors for seasonal Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and the number of U.S. landfalling hurricanes.
CFAN’s prediction for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season:

• ACE: 134 (average value 103 since 1982)
• # of U.S. landfalling hurricanes: 3 (average value 1.7 since 1900)

CFAN’s research team has long-standing expertise in climate dynamics and tropical meteorology research and in developing operational forecasts of tropical cyclones on timescales from 1-30 days. This seasonal forecast reflects the first time that this expertise has been integrated into a seasonal prediction of Atlantic hurricane activity. . . .

Jack Hays said:

Any forecasts? Anyone care to make a bold prediction? Here's one forecast.

CFAN’s forecast for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season

[FONT=&]Posted on June 8, 2017 | 101 comments[/FONT]
by Judith Curry
Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN)’s first seasonal forecast for Atlantic hurricanes is based on a breakthrough in understanding of the impact of global climate dynamics on Atlantic hurricane activity.
Continue reading →

Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN)’s first seasonal forecast for Atlantic hurricanes is based on a breakthrough in understanding of the impact of global climate dynamics on Atlantic hurricane activity.
Research conducted by Senior Scientist Jim Johnstone at my company Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) has identified skillful new predictors for seasonal Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and the number of U.S. landfalling hurricanes.
CFAN’s prediction for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season:

• ACE: 134 (average value 103 since 1982)
• # of U.S. landfalling hurricanes: 3 (average value 1.7 since 1900)

CFAN’s research team has long-standing expertise in climate dynamics and tropical meteorology research and in developing operational forecasts of tropical cyclones on timescales from 1-30 days. This seasonal forecast reflects the first time that this expertise has been integrated into a seasonal prediction of Atlantic hurricane activity. . . .

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No Science, simply an observation of living almost 60 years on the Gulf coast and living through quite a few Hurricanes.
The years that start out really hot, like this one, tend to spawn more but weaker storms.
Of course the tropical storms have in the past been worse rainfall flooding events.
The Hurricanes are strong enough to push through, but the storms stall out and just rain.
Thankfully Houston is well designed for rainfall, and up to about 2 inches an hour the system can keep up.
If that rate continues for more than a few hours, it can get ugly quickly.
Past flooding events have all been rainfalls greater than 10 inches in a 24 hour period.
Unlike New Orleans, which has large areas below sea level, most of Houston is between 30 and 80 feet above sea level.