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The Need for a Climate Science Red Team

So . . . your big conspiracy comes down to $25,000!?!?! :lamo

And I note you dodged discussion of leading skeptical scientists.

Let's see - 97% of scientists believe in man-made climate change, 3% do not. That's about the same percentage as the flat-earthers. Who's the conspiracy theorist? When I want to humor myself with another conspiracy, like the 9-11 inside job of Cheney, I'll listen to one of your 3%.
 
Let's see - 97% of scientists believe in man-made climate change, 3% do not. That's about the same percentage as the flat-earthers. Who's the conspiracy theorist? When I want to humor myself with another conspiracy, like the 9-11 inside job of Cheney, I'll listen to one of your 3%.
If you want to continue to use the 97% number, perhaps you should state it correctly!
Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature - IOPscience
From Cook, et al 2013 abstract
We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991–2011 matching the topics 'global climate change' or 'global warming'. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.
So 97% of the papers that expressed a position about AGW.
Total abstracts reviewed 11,944 100%
Abstracts that expressed no position 7,930 66.4%
Abstracts that expressed a position and endorsed AGW 3,894 32.6%
Abstracts that expressed a position and rejected AGW 84 .7%
Abstracts that expressed a position with cause uncertainty 36 .3%

Cook arrived at 97 percent by excluding 7,930 of the 11,944 abstracts reviewed that did not express a position!
 
If you want to continue to use the 97% number, perhaps you should state it correctly!
Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature - IOPscience
From Cook, et al 2013 abstract

So 97% of the papers that expressed a position about AGW.
Total abstracts reviewed 11,944 100%
Abstracts that expressed no position 7,930 66.4%
Abstracts that expressed a position and endorsed AGW 3,894 32.6%
Abstracts that expressed a position and rejected AGW 84 .7%
Abstracts that expressed a position with cause uncertainty 36 .3%

Cook arrived at 97 percent by excluding 7,930 of the 11,944 abstracts reviewed that did not express a position!

You always seem to miss the fact that 100% of major scientific organizations take the position that AGW is real and a significant problem.
 
I am sure that distinction matters little to someone who cannot feed their kids.



While Tim's numbers may be exaggerated, it does not change the fact that US policies have cause corn prices to increase,
and that has limited the poorest in the world ability to feed themselves.
I have always thought placing our machines in competition for our food supply was a bad idea.

I'll also point out that corn is heavily subsidized in the US, with price floors, etc.

And if you think that corn prices will magically go down if ethanol isn't made, you're wrong. Farmers will change to other crops.

The rate limiting step in solving world hunger is NOT food production- especially US corn production.
 
You always seem to miss the fact that 100% of major scientific organizations take the position that AGW is real and a significant problem.
And the 97% number mostly come from cooks paper!
Did his paper include that they reviewed the opinion of the people running the scientific organizations?
 
Let's see - 97% of scientists believe in man-made climate change, 3% do not. That's about the same percentage as the flat-earthers. Who's the conspiracy theorist? When I want to humor myself with another conspiracy, like the 9-11 inside job of Cheney, I'll listen to one of your 3%.

Try Henrik Svensmark of the Danish Technical University, or Nir Shaviv of the Raccah Institute of Physics, Hebrew University of Jerusalem. Svensmark's work has been published by Oxford University and the UK's Royal Astronomical Society. Shaviv was recently a Fellow at the Institute for Advanced Studies at Princeton (where Einstein worked after he came to the US).
 
Do you believe that's a good reason to continually turn a blind eye when someone constantly promotes blatant lies? If anything, the absolute absurdity of Tim's claims make it look like tinfoil hat nonsense and therefore make a mockery of what should be a serious issue.


FYI a year before the GFC spike, corn prices ranged between $2.90 and $4 per bushel (November 2006 to October 2007). US bioethanol production (<90% from corn) more than tripled between 2006 and 2015 (4,884 million gallons to 14,807 million gallons), and in the comparable period November 2015 to October 2016 corn prices ranged from $3.20 to $4.40. That's a 10% increase. On the other hand, it's almost a 50% decrease from the 2011-2013 prices, despite an 11% increase in production from 2012 to 2015. Bioethanol demand must inevitably have some impact on food prices, but "no one can deny" that those impacts are A) impossible to precisely quantify but B) obviously tiny compared to various other factors that cause short- and long-term fluctuations.

As I've already pointed out, and have pointed out many times before, one hostile estimate of the human cost from biofuel effects on food prices - by a right-wing think tank with an agenda of opposing biofuels and climate change action generally, promoted on WUWT and explicitly shown to Tim at his request by Jack Hays - was in the order of ~200,000 deaths per year, smaller by a factor of one hundred than Tim's lies.

A little simple maths;

The price of food was x

Due to the continued advancement of science and economic ability it has droped to 0.7 x.

If the use of food as fuel was stopped it would drop much further to about 0.5 x or so.

Maintaining it at 0.2 x above what it should be costs all of the people of the earth between $150 and $400 a year. For us rich people this does not really matter. Annoying to give rich western farmers money for their new expensive car but not more than that. For the poor of the world it is dreadful.

I understand that you, Mithrae, do not know any poor people. That is obvious, especially when you said that the poor of the world should find some land to grow crops on, but I do care about the murder of the world's poor a lot. My numbers differ from yours. I think mine are closer to being right than yours. I do not lie. We can disagree. That is not lying. Your arrogance in thinking that you are always right is very much a symptom of your need to maintain your attachment to your doom cult. Your religion.
 
Wiki, seems to think the US became the world leader in ethanol production in 2005,
On your posted graph of corn prices, the prices were about $2.00 a bushel for 2005.
The Energy Policy Act of 2005 increased the amount of biofuel (usually ethanol) that must be mixed with gasoline sold in the United States to 4 billion US gallons (15,000,000 m3) by 2006, 6.1 billion US gallons (23,000,000 m3) by 2009 and 7.5 billion US gallons (28,000,000 m3) by 2012.
In 2006 the price of corn rose from an average of $2 a bushel to an average of $3.8 per bushel,
and has not returned to the $2 range since.
I am not speaking to Tim's numbers, only to the idea that the US corn ethanol program have caused
a considerable increase in would hunger, by nearly doubling the cost of a staple food grain.

Thak you. It is hard to present the obvious when you are alone in seeing it.
 
I understand that you, Mithrae, do not know any poor people. That is obvious, especially when you said that the poor of the world should find some land to grow crops on

Once again readers can see for themselves the blatant lies which Tim produces on a regular basis.

The post below wasn't dredged up from obscurity; it was the first one linked in post #40 of this thread, reproduced here in full and unaltered, except for the blue highlight.

I had pointed out to Tim (and on more occasions than this one) the fact that the food supplies of the world's poorest people are mostly sourced locally, in rural villages or grown in shanty town backyards or the like, not least because many can't afford imported food at any price. Obviously this fact substantially reduces the impact which fluctuations of international food prices - between too expensive and far too expensive - have on their well-being. Obviously therefore, that is a fact which Tim does not like. It is a Bad Fact.

So instead of coming to terms with reality, our friendly neighbourhood Plumber simply decides to resort to slander... yet again.

So this is how you debate? Really? You make a claim constantly over the years - including personally slandering me over it on at least two occasions - and no matter how many times various other posters point out how utterly and pathetically wrong it is, you just keep on making it... and beg other posters to try to prove you right?

How about you try Googling 'hunger deaths per year' to start with? It's a very big ask, I know.

"Around 9 million people die of hunger and hunger-related diseases every year, more than double the lives taken by AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis in 2012."
https://www.mercycorps.org/articles/quick-facts-what-you-need-know-about-global-hunger

Does that sound like "at least 10 million people per year dying" just because of the production of biofuels? No, it doesn't look like it to me either. And the impact on food prices caused by inefficiently using agricultural land to feed cows and cars is arguably not even the biggest contributor to world hunger:

Why are they hungry?

Many hungry people live in countries with food surpluses, not food shortages.

The issue, largely, is that the people who need food the most simply don’t have steady access to it.

In the hungriest countries, families struggle to get the food they need because of several endemic issues: lack of infrastructure like roads and storage facilities; frequent war and displacement; overwhelming dependence on livelihoods, like farming, that are disrupted by natural disaster or climate change; and chronic poverty.

75 percent of the world’s poorest families don’t buy their food — they grow it.

Many poverty-stricken families depend on their land and livestock for both food and income, leaving them vulnerable to natural disasters that can quickly strip them of their livelihoods.

Drought — the result of climate change and increasingly unpredictable rainfall — has become one of the most common causes of food shortages in the world. It consistently causes crop failures, kills entire herds of livestock and dries up farmland in poor communities that have no other means to survive.

One-third of the food produced around the world is never consumed.

In developing countries, so much food is wasted due to inadequate food production systems. Inefficient farming techniques, lack of post-harvest storage and management resources, and weak market connections are some of the factors responsible for significant food losses in these countries each year.​

Incidentally that was also the thread in which Jack Hays responded to Tim begging others to do his homework for him by providing that right-wing think-tank estimate of biofuel deaths, which Tim then summarily ignored because he didn't liked it and kept promoting his claim of a figure one hundred times larger. Well worth the read for anyone wanting to further explore the long sordid history of bull**** which our contrarian friends have so far continued to let pass with quiet approval.

Anything goes if the rhetoric attempts to smear climate science and those who accept it, right fellahs?
 
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A little simple maths;

The price of food was x

Due to the continued advancement of science and economic ability it has droped to 0.7 x.

If the use of food as fuel was stopped it would drop much further to about 0.5 x or so.

Maintaining it at 0.2 x above what it should be costs all of the people of the earth between $150 and $400 a year. For us rich people this does not really matter. Annoying to give rich western farmers money for their new expensive car but not more than that. For the poor of the world it is dreadful.

I understand that you, Mithrae, do not know any poor people. That is obvious, especially when you said that the poor of the world should find some land to grow crops on, but I do care about the murder of the world's poor a lot. My numbers differ from yours. I think mine are closer to being right than yours. I do not lie. We can disagree. That is not lying. Your arrogance in thinking that you are always right is very much a symptom of your need to maintain your attachment to your doom cult. Your religion.

Again, the price of corn is not set by the amount of corn produced- if prices drop, farmers switch crops, let land lie fallow, etc.

This doesn't even include the massive subsidies.

In the US, corn prices right now are about $3.75/bushel.

The price floor for corn is $3.70, meaning the US govt will buy corn for that amount.

In addition, despite your whinging about prices, the price of corn and other grains is historically pretty low, meaning that all this ethanol seems to be having little effect upon price.
 
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Once again readers can see for themselves the blatant lies which Tim produces on a regular basis.

The post below wasn't dredged up from obscurity; it was the first one linked in post #40 of this thread, reproduced here in full and unaltered, except for the blue highlight.

I had pointed out to Tim (and on more occasions than this one) the fact that the food supplies of the world's poorest people are mostly sourced locally, in rural villages or grown in shanty town backyards or the like, not least because many can't afford imported food at any price. Obviously this fact substantially reduces the impact which fluctuations of international food prices - between too expensive and far too expensive - have on their well-being. Obviously therefore, that is a fact which Tim does not like. It is a Bad Fact.

So instead of coming to terms with reality, our friendly neighbourhood Plumber simply decides to resort to slander... yet again.

Be careful. Your post comes perilously close to blaming the poor & hungry for their own poverty and malnourishment.

And most imported food in poor countries is not sold but rather is distributed via aid channels. Any grain price increases caused by biofuels would injure aid organizations' food buying capacity, not the purchasing power of poor consumers.
 
Be careful. Your post comes perilously close to blaming the poor & hungry for their own poverty and malnourishment.

How so? Please be specific.

And most imported food in poor countries is not sold but rather is distributed via aid channels. Any grain price increases caused by biofuels would injure aid organizations' food buying capacity, not the purchasing power of poor consumers.

And do you believe that this has increased the global crude death rate by almost 3 per thousand (20 million people per year)? If so, when do you believe that occurred?

Code:
Country or Area	Year(s)		Variant		Global crude death rate (per 1000)
World		2010-2015	Medium variant	8.1
World		2005-2010	Medium variant	8.1
World		2000-2005	Medium variant	8.4
World		1995-2000	Medium variant	8.8
World		1990-1995	Medium variant	9.1
World		1985-1990	Medium variant	9.4
World		1980-1985	Medium variant	10.0
World		1975-1980	Medium variant	10.6
World		1970-1975	Medium variant	11.6
World		1965-1970	Medium variant	12.9
World		1960-1965	Medium variant	16.2
World		1955-1960	Medium variant	17.3
World		1950-1955	Medium variant	19.1

If not, why are you so happy to let Tim's lies pass without comment? Just because you like the rhetorical spin he's going for?
 
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How so? Please be specific.



And do you believe that this has increased the global crude death rate by almost 3 per thousand (20 million people per year)? If so, when do you believe that occurred?

Code:
Country or Area	Year(s)		Variant		Global crude death rate (per 1000)
World		2010-2015	Medium variant	8.1
World		2005-2010	Medium variant	8.1
World		2000-2005	Medium variant	8.4
World		1995-2000	Medium variant	8.8
World		1990-1995	Medium variant	9.1
World		1985-1990	Medium variant	9.4
World		1980-1985	Medium variant	10.0
World		1975-1980	Medium variant	10.6
World		1970-1975	Medium variant	11.6
World		1965-1970	Medium variant	12.9
World		1960-1965	Medium variant	16.2
World		1955-1960	Medium variant	17.3
World		1950-1955	Medium variant	19.1

If not, why are you so happy to let Tim's lies pass without comment? Just because you like the rhetorical spin he's going for?

I found this statement troubling.

In developing countries, so much food is wasted due to inadequate food production systems. Inefficient farming techniques, lack of post-harvest storage and management resources, and weak market connections are some of the factors responsible for significant food losses in these countries each year.

As for Tim's argument in general, I guess I'd say I'm in a wait-and-see mode.
 
I found this statement troubling.

In developing countries, so much food is wasted due to inadequate food production systems. Inefficient farming techniques, lack of post-harvest storage and management resources, and weak market connections are some of the factors responsible for significant food losses in these countries each year.

All of which are genuine factors reducing food production and availability in many third world countries, "troubling" or not. Don't worry, there's still plenty of 'blame the rich' to go around... though it's strange to see you apparently championing that mentality :lol: High levels of meat consumption for example, as noted in post #49; while obviously not as bad hectare for hectare as using agricultural land to feed cars, using grains or prime land to feed cows and to a lesser extent other animals has a similar inflationary effect on prices (and probably still of a larger scale overall).
 
All of which are genuine factors reducing food production and availability in many third world countries, "troubling" or not. Don't worry, there's still plenty of 'blame the rich' to go around... though it's strange to see you apparently championing that mentality :lol: High levels of meat consumption for example, as noted in post #49; while obviously not as bad hectare for hectare as using agricultural land to feed cars, using grains or prime land to feed cows and to a lesser extent other animals has a similar inflationary effect on prices (and probably still of a larger scale overall).

You have no idea what my views are. I've spent a lot of time in the Third World, and I know how firmly the deck is stacked against the common people there.
 
Try Henrik Svensmark of the Danish Technical University, or Nir Shaviv of the Raccah Institute of Physics, Hebrew University of Jerusalem. Svensmark's work has been published by Oxford University and the UK's Royal Astronomical Society. Shaviv was recently a Fellow at the Institute for Advanced Studies at Princeton (where Einstein worked after he came to the US).

Sure, and try David Ray Griffin. He puts up a pretty compelling argument that 9/11 was an inside job, orchestrated by the Bush/Cheney PNAC philosophy. Of course, he is of a very small percentage, that hold this opinion, similar to the scientific Climate Change deniers. I'll stick with the 97%. You can enjoy your conspiracy theories.
 
Once again readers can see for themselves the blatant lies which Tim produces on a regular basis.

The post below wasn't dredged up from obscurity; it was the first one linked in post #40 of this thread, reproduced here in full and unaltered, except for the blue highlight.

I had pointed out to Tim (and on more occasions than this one) the fact that the food supplies of the world's poorest people are mostly sourced locally, in rural villages or grown in shanty town backyards or the like, not least because many can't afford imported food at any price. Obviously this fact substantially reduces the impact which fluctuations of international food prices - between too expensive and far too expensive - have on their well-being. Obviously therefore, that is a fact which Tim does not like. It is a Bad Fact.

So instead of coming to terms with reality, our friendly neighbourhood Plumber simply decides to resort to slander... yet again.



Incidentally that was also the thread in which Jack Hays responded to Tim begging others to do his homework for him by providing that right-wing think-tank estimate of biofuel deaths, which Tim then summarily ignored because he didn't liked it and kept promoting his claim of a figure one hundred times larger. Well worth the read for anyone wanting to further explore the long sordid history of bull**** which our contrarian friends have so far continued to let pass with quiet approval.

Anything goes if the rhetoric attempts to smear climate science and those who accept it, right fellahs?

And i will again explain for those who have a great difficulty understanding that there are real people suffering real problems of abjsct poverty that the poorest do not have land to grow food on.

That those who scratch a living off rubbish dumps or beg in the same streets they sleep in eat food that is mostly imported from the world's markets.

Those who do not send their children to school because it is choice between eating or schooling would love to have the easy choices that you arm chair interlectuals think they do but the real world is one of desperate day to day survival.
 
Do you like using logical fallacies?

Is it possible that they might be right on things every now and then?

I would suggest that Heartland is more accurate than Sourcewatch...

The fossil fuel industry sure thinks so... They sure support them.
 
Again, the price of corn is not set by the amount of corn produced- if prices drop, farmers switch crops, let land lie fallow, etc.

This doesn't even include the massive subsidies.

In the US, corn prices right now are about $3.75/bushel.

The price floor for corn is $3.70, meaning the US govt will buy corn for that amount.

In addition, despite your whinging about prices, the price of corn and other grains is historically pretty low, meaning that all this ethanol seems to be having little effect upon price.

It was down to $2 before this intervention happened.

Given your figures do you think that the US government is not buying any grain for th ebio-fuel industry at all at the moment?
 
Sure, and try David Ray Griffin. He puts up a pretty compelling argument that 9/11 was an inside job, orchestrated by the Bush/Cheney PNAC philosophy. Of course, he is of a very small percentage, that hold this opinion, similar to the scientific Climate Change deniers. I'll stick with the 97%. You can enjoy your conspiracy theories.

Sorry, but that comment is too ignorant to let pass. Svensmark and Shaviv are proponents of a legitimate alternative climate hypothesis which they have advanced via highly prestigious peer-reviewed publications. You are suffering from a science knowledge deficit.
 
It was down to $2 before this intervention happened.

Given your figures do you think that the US government is not buying any grain for th ebio-fuel industry at all at the moment?

Before 'what' happened? Before Ethanol was used for fuel? I recall that Illinois mandated a 10% ethanol content in the 1970s, and many other states did too, so this phenomenon has been going on for at least 40 years.

Again, farmers are getting $3.70 for corn in the US at a minimum, regardless if the corn is needed or not, so wishing that the price was lower isnt going to work.

The US is not buying any grain for the biofuel industry. It just subsidizes farmers directly.
 
Sorry, but that comment is too ignorant to let pass. Svensmark and Shaviv are proponents of a legitimate alternative climate hypothesis which they have advanced via highly prestigious peer-reviewed publications. You are suffering from a science knowledge deficit.

In fact, the Royal Astronomical Society is such a prestigious institution that they disagree directly and firmly support the IPCCs conclusions.

https://www.ras.org.uk/news-and-press/2689-ras-signs-climate-communique

But I guess that blows a hole in your dishonest premise, so you'll have to dismiss it with a one liner.
 
In fact, the Royal Astronomical Society is such a prestigious institution that they disagree directly and firmly support the IPCCs conclusions.

https://www.ras.org.uk/news-and-press/2689-ras-signs-climate-communique

But I guess that blows a hole in your dishonest premise, so you'll have to dismiss it with a one liner.

It's actually irrelevant. Publication by the RAS never meant they agreed with Svensmark, only that his work was/is legitimate science that passed peer review.
 
Sorry, but that comment is too ignorant to let pass. Svensmark and Shaviv are proponents of a legitimate alternative climate hypothesis which they have advanced via highly prestigious peer-reviewed publications. You are suffering from a science knowledge deficit.

Cloud Seed Theory. The key word here is theory, versus real conclusions, with supportive data by the 97%.

New climate-change study about clouds - Business Insider

And look at the conclusion, even if the theory has some plausibility, as this proponent sees it:

"Human impact is not going to go away," Kirkby said. "Temperature will still go up and warming will still occur. But now that we've got this important result, that is going to pin down the pre industrial atmosphere, it's going to sharpen our results and shrink the range of predictions."
 
Cloud Seed Theory. The key word here is theory, versus real conclusions, with supportive data by the 97%.

New climate-change study about clouds - Business Insider

And look at the conclusion, even if the theory has some plausibility, as this proponent sees it:

"Human impact is not going to go away," Kirkby said. "Temperature will still go up and warming will still occur. But now that we've got this important result, that is going to pin down the pre industrial atmosphere, it's going to sharpen our results and shrink the range of predictions."

Jasper Kirkby is an accomplished experimenter who is following up on the insights of Svensmark and Shaviv.
 
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