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When did Climate Change Acceptance/Denial become a partisan issue?

You say this, others say that. Per my memory I don't recall any warming papers taken seriously until 79 or 80, or it being a big thing before the late 80s/early 90s. I wasn't following it THAT closely, most of my scientific interests were about other things. When an article appeared in one of my favored science periodicals I read it; or when there was a show about it on NOVA or
something. No internet remember.

I remember saying to a friend, somewhere around 86-88 I think, "Well, they've (scientists) changed their minds and decided no Ice Age, instead it's global warming now." It was news to him; it wasn't much on the public radar at the time, nothing like it was a decade later.


Regardless, I've read papers by supporters and skeptics, and find neither side absolutely convincing. One thing that really bothers me is you don't get real "consensus" by using humiliation, threats and excommunication to silence the skeptics. Nor by cherry-picking data. Both things the AGW bunch has done... makes me skeptical. "Ideas so good we have to silence the opposition with threats!" :roll:

Yes, public radar certainly differs from actual science. Largely due to media coverage.

Here's what the actual science says:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1

Now, flogger posted the same "rebuttal" nonsense claiming 285 "cooling" papers were ignored, and therefore this study is wrong. However, go check out that link of his. Look at a few of the papers they cite as "cooling" papers.

All of them are talking about previously observed cooling, not predictions of future cooling. He doesn't understand why that's an important distinction, but I bet you do.
 
It is probably well hidden in cyberspace by now.
Radiative forcing and climate response - Hansen - 1997 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres - Wiley Online Library
Available data on aerosol single scatter albedo imply that anthropogenic aerosols cause
less cooling than has commonly been assumed. However, negative forcing due to the net ozone change since
1979 appears to have counterbalanced 30-50% of the positive forcing due to the increase of well-mixed greenhouse
gases in the same period.
What is odd about Hansen's statement is that he seems to be implying that the decrease in aerosols
caused negative forcing.
 

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Yes, public radar certainly differs from actual science. Largely due to media coverage.

Here's what the actual science says:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1

Now, flogger posted the same "rebuttal" nonsense claiming 285 "cooling" papers were ignored, and therefore this study is wrong. However, go check out that link of his. Look at a few of the papers they cite as "cooling" papers.

All of them are talking about previously observed cooling, not predictions of future cooling. He doesn't understand why that's an important distinction, but I bet you do.

Not all of them. #1 and #3 on Kenneth Richards' list do indeed predict imminent cooling, as I've already pointed out in this thread and several times in Jack's earlier thread. They're the only two which do out of the 40-odd that I personally looked at, but they are there and it would not be honest to pretend otherwise.

Furthermore, since neither of those papers appears in the Peterson et al survey - and nor does #2, a 'neutral' paper, or #10 and #12, also clearly discussing near-future climate change with non-commital conclusions; and #6 was classified by Peterson et al as 'warming' but would be better classed as neutral - Richards' list does serve to cast more than a slight shadow of a doubt over that paper's thoroughness and accuracy.

Presumably most of the 'best' and biggest-impact stuff Richards' found were put at the front of his list (with the imminent-warming papers which he chose to portray as imminent-cooling hidden down at #146 or so :lol: ). But even multiplying the number of errors and omissions from Peterson et al which I found in Richards' list by ten (though at 40+ I looked at was about one-seventh of the list) we'd get about +20 cooling papers and +40 neutral papers to Peterson et al's total, with warming remaining the same (one of their warming papers was misclassified, but there was also that warming paper in Richards' list which hadn't been in Peterson's). So instead of 7 cooling, 20 neutral and 44 warming papers we'd end up with perhaps 30 cooling, 40 neutral and 40 warming. It remains virtually impossible to imagine that there was any kind of cooling consensus, or even that there were more scientists predicting imminent cooling than warming: It's likely that most climate scientists in the 70s were unconvinced either way.

Ideally of course it'd be nice to see another credible literature survey done, more thoroughly and accurately than Peterson et al and much more accurately and objectively than Richards'!
 
Radiative forcing and climate response - Hansen - 1997 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres - Wiley Online Library

What is odd about Hansen's statement is that he seems to be implying that the decrease in aerosols
caused negative forcing.

The +/-2% S[SUB]0[/SUB] experiments are for solar irradiance.

From immediately above that figure:
3. CO2 and Solar Irradiance Experiments
We first discuss radiative forcings in general (section 3.1) and the 2xCO2 and spectrally uniform +2% S[SUB]0[/SUB] forcings in particular (section 3.2).​

From immediately below that figure:
3.2. The 2xCO2 and Spectrally Uniform +2% S[SUB]0[/SUB] Forcings
The 2xCO 2 and +2% S[SUB]0[/SUB] forcings are used in Figure 3, in an elaboration of a cartoon used to illustrate the Earth's greenhouse effect and the expected radiative-convective response to these two forcings [Hansen et al., 1993a]. . . .

If solar irradiance increases 2% (at all wavelengths), the instantaneous flux change at the top of the atmosphere is 4.7 W/m[sup]2[/sup]...​
 
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This again.

Your article is being deceptive. They are failing to distinguish between "it has cooled previously" and "we predict it will cool in the future."

Do you understand why this distinction is important to the conversation?

Yes because if you were ever to take this into account the sort of societal restructuring being aimed for would be that much more difficult :wink:
 
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Ah. THAT William Connolley!


Global Cooling and Wikipedia Fake News

By Andy May There is an excellent new post up at notrickszone.com on the global cooling scare of the 1970’s and the efforts to erase it from the record by the climate alarmists at realclimate.com. For some the scandal at Wikipedia over William Connolley deliberately posting false articles and altering factual ones on climate is…

December 25, 2016 in Climate News.

William Connolley, now “climate topic banned” at Wikipedia

Bishop Hill had the news first, which is fitting since Mr. Connolley is based in Britain. In a vote of 7-0, The most prolific climate revisionist editor ever at Wikipedia, with over 5400 article revisions has been banned from making any edits about climate related articles for six months.

October 14, 2010 in Climate News, Wiki Wars.

[h=1]Pointman’s: The scorning of William Connolley[/h]Pointman writes: I think we’ve all had that pleasant surprise when something totally unexpected just drops out of the sky and into your lap. That happened to me last weekend when a creature called William Connolley attempted to comment on a piece I’d written about the Bengtsson scandal. If you’re unfamiliar with him, he’s infamous for editing…

May 30, 2014 in Opinion, Wiki Wars.
 
The +/-2% S[SUB]0[/SUB] experiments are for solar irradiance.

From immediately above that figure:
3. CO2 and Solar Irradiance Experiments
We first discuss radiative forcings in general (section 3.1) and the 2xCO2 and spectrally uniform +2% S[SUB]0[/SUB] forcings in particular (section 3.2).​

From immediately below that figure:
3.2. The 2xCO2 and Spectrally Uniform +2% S[SUB]0[/SUB] Forcings
The 2xCO 2 and +2% S[SUB]0[/SUB] forcings are used in Figure 3, in an elaboration of a cartoon used to illustrate the Earth's greenhouse effect and the expected radiative-convective response to these two forcings [Hansen et al., 1993a]. . . .

If solar irradiance increases 2% (at all wavelengths), the instantaneous flux change at the top of the atmosphere is 4.7 W/m[sup]2[/sup]...​
The problem is that Solar Irradiance has gone down not up, and so the Top of Atmosphere energy imbalance
from doubling the CO2 level would be a little less than than his 2XCO2 figure of 2.62 Wm-2.
 
The problem is that Solar Irradiance has gone down not up, and so the Top of Atmosphere energy imbalance
from doubling the CO2 level would be a little less than than his 2XCO2 figure of 2.62 Wm-2.

Yes, it will be a little less than than his 2XCO2 figure of 4.75 Wm-2 at the tropopause (the figure more relevant for climate change in the surface-troposphere system, as they note).

Personally I would view declining solar activity as a blessing, not a problem, not least because it helps show the foolishness of simple-minded "the sun caused the warming" arguments (which we still see from folk like you and LoP in spite of over 50 years' solar decline!). But mostly because solar decline might help partially offset the substantial warming we are causing. Taking that paper at its word, that a 2% decline in solar activity would correlate with a T[SUB]0[/SUB] change of -1.33 degrees, the actual decline since the 1950s would imply around 0.05 degrees of cooling from the sun over that period ( (1 / 1361 Wm-2) / 2% * 1.33C ).
 
Yes, it will be a little less than than his 2XCO2 figure of 4.75 Wm-2 at the tropopause (the figure more relevant for climate change in the surface-troposphere system, as they note).

Personally I would view declining solar activity as a blessing, not a problem, not least because it helps show the foolishness of simple-minded "the sun caused the warming" arguments (which we still see from folk like you and LoP in spite of over 50 years' solar decline!). But mostly because solar decline might help partially offset the substantial warming we are causing. Taking that paper at its word, that a 2% decline in solar activity would correlate with a T[SUB]0[/SUB] change of -1.33 degrees, the actual decline since the 1950s would imply around 0.05 degrees of cooling from the sun over that period ( (1 / 1361 Wm-2) / 2% * 1.33C ).
But are we measuring the total energy in and out of the atmospheric system, or just looking at some mid way point.
The mid way point may be interesting, but does not reflect the energy retained by the system.
 
And this is just the sort of retrospective airbrushing of history I addrssed earlier.

I KNOW what happened back then as I lived through it

https://www.iceagenow.info/massive-cover-global-cooling-papers-deleted/

But you have apparently been in a cave since 1975. The advances in computers and climate science since then are massive. Today the temporary cooling has been explained. No one denies that climate prediction is a complex and difficult subject but we have a much better picture than in the punch card age. It is really foolish to equate stone age tech with what we can do today. It does not help your argument, it hurts it.
 
Radiative forcing and climate response - Hansen - 1997 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres - Wiley Online Library

What is odd about Hansen's statement is that he seems to be implying that the decrease in aerosols
caused negative forcing.

It depends on the aerosol type. Most aerosols cause cooling by their reflection of solar energy. Black carbon is one exception.

Different gasses and different aerosols change the abortion, reflection, and transmission of different spectra in a different way.
 
The +/-2% S[SUB]0[/SUB] experiments are for solar irradiance.

From immediately above that figure:
3. CO2 and Solar Irradiance Experiments
We first discuss radiative forcings in general (section 3.1) and the 2xCO2 and spectrally uniform +2% S[SUB]0[/SUB] forcings in particular (section 3.2).​

From immediately below that figure:
3.2. The 2xCO2 and Spectrally Uniform +2% S[SUB]0[/SUB] Forcings
The 2xCO 2 and +2% S[SUB]0[/SUB] forcings are used in Figure 3, in an elaboration of a cartoon used to illustrate the Earth's greenhouse effect and the expected radiative-convective response to these two forcings [Hansen et al., 1993a]. . . .

If solar irradiance increases 2% (at all wavelengths), the instantaneous flux change at the top of the atmosphere is 4.7 W/m[sup]2[/sup]...​

Yes, but the problem is that Hansens calculations fail to correct for the changes solar radiation has on greenhouse gasses and clouds. The 4.7 W/m^2 is simply the 235 W/m^2 x 0.02. An approximate 2% would be seen in the total radiation exchange as well, since the sun provided the power to start with. If we assume the surface total upward and downward radiant energy to be around 390 W/m^2, then 2% of this is around 7.8 W/m^2 at the surface.

From the AR4:

faq-1-1-figure-1.jpeg


A 2% change from sun would change all these numbers by about 2%. Of course, they aren't linear responses, but the end result will not be far from 2%.
 
But you have apparently been in a cave since 1975. The advances in computers and climate science since then are massive. Today the temporary cooling has been explained. No one denies that climate prediction is a complex and difficult subject but we have a much better picture than in the punch card age. It is really foolish to equate stone age tech with what we can do today. It does not help your argument, it hurts it.

Are you kidding ? We still havent the faintest idea of the significance of of most variables in climate change including water vapour which represents 95% of greenhose gases. Its all just so much subjective supposition
 
Yes, but the problem is that Hansens calculations fail to correct for the changes solar radiation has on greenhouse gasses and clouds. The 4.7 W/m^2 is simply the 235 W/m^2 x 0.02. An approximate 2% would be seen in the total radiation exchange as well, since the sun provided the power to start with. If we assume the surface total upward and downward radiant energy to be around 390 W/m^2, then 2% of this is around 7.8 W/m^2 at the surface.

From the AR4:

faq-1-1-figure-1.jpeg


A 2% change from sun would change all these numbers by about 2%. Of course, they aren't linear responses, but the end result will not be far from 2%.

If it changed every aspect of the surface energy balance it'd be 2% of ~492W/m^2, not 390. That's a questionable assumption, but I can see how it could be the case. If it is the case, then again taking the paper as is the solar variation from the early to mid 20th century would have been responsible for about 0.144 degrees of warming before feedbacks ( (fraction of TSI increase) * surface energy balance / Hansen's 2% solar change * Hansen's surface response, or (1.4 / 1361) * 492 / 4.67 * 1.33C ), and about 0.103 degrees of cooling since the late 1950s (same, except it's only ~1/1361). Allowing for the effect of thermal inertia on year-to-year solar variations the net solar influence may have been much closer to zero in the years since the 50s, if there hadn't been enough time for the climate response to catch up (standard TSI vs. climate response graph), but that would mean that its warming influence would have had to be smaller also.
 
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Are you kidding ? We still havent the faintest idea of the significance of of most variables in climate change including water vapour which represents 95% of greenhose gases. Its all just so much subjective supposition

C'mon mate, show us that graphic again which colourfully asserts that we have little data and low understanding of everything under the sun - as well as the sun itself! You're letting the team down here, and missing a golden opportunity to show how really quite strong your position is :lol:
 
Ah. THAT William Connolley!


Global Cooling and Wikipedia Fake News

By Andy May There is an excellent new post up at notrickszone.com on the global cooling scare of the 1970’s and the efforts to erase it from the record by the climate alarmists at realclimate.com. For some the scandal at Wikipedia over William Connolley deliberately posting false articles and altering factual ones on climate is…

December 25, 2016 in Climate News.

William Connolley, now “climate topic banned” at Wikipedia

Bishop Hill had the news first, which is fitting since Mr. Connolley is based in Britain. In a vote of 7-0, The most prolific climate revisionist editor ever at Wikipedia, with over 5400 article revisions has been banned from making any edits about climate related articles for six months.

Seriously, from the number of times this stuff gets posted do you guys think that 'Wikigate' is some kind of major international scandal, or what? Number of article edits means absolutely nothing on its own. Most Wikipedia editors are anonymous/pseudonymous and depending on their level of tech savvy even a single person could use any number of accounts in succession. If some propaganda-driven partisan hacks made a thousand biased and inaccurate or even simply sloppy changes to articles, someone else would have to make a thousand corrections. This isn't exactly rocket science.

So the question is simply who was sloppy, who were the propagandists, who were the correctors?

The fact is that we know virtually nothing about what went on with all of that. The accusations against Connelley trace back through James Delingpole of The Telegraph to some article by Lawrence Solomon of The National Post. But whatever one's opinion of those authors or publications, the original article is no longer on the National Post website and Delingpole's article is not on the Telegraph's site either. Whatever the reason for those removals, obviously their accusations now amount to little more than random internet rumour-mongering.

However the information we do have from the individuals most closely involved in whatever it was that went on suggest that while Connelley's knowledge and (relative) expertise was appreciated by the Wiki community, he apparently got too heated by becoming too personally invested in whatever disputes he was having with the unknown counter-editor/s of climate articles (who by the looks of it were also banned by the community). These are the only two comments amongst the votes to topic-ban him, from that second WUWT link:
3. It has become clear, during the case itself, that the topic area has become too personalized and polarized around a number of editors who are, frankly, incapable of working together. While I may not agree that all editors involved have the same severity of misbehaviour, I can appreciate that a forcible fresh start is probably going to help - with gradual return on merit as the editors involve themselves in other areas of the project.



7. Sad, reluctant support. I dislike intensely the idea of separating a knowledgeable editor from editing in the field of his expertise. My instincts impel me to say that I would, if possible, prefer a more carefully tailored, nuanced sanction or set of sanctions that could preserve the value of William M. Connolley's editing while addressing the problems that exist with it. . . . We have also acknowledged that some of the specific assertions made about him previously were inaccurate or taken out of context.​

Short of personally going through and trying to figure out all previous edits and counter-edits of relevant articles - and it's worth noting that despite providing several direct Wikipedia edit-history links, Delingpole's claims do not highlight any specifically problematic examples - those comments above are the only primary sources we have on this issue, from people directly involved.

All the third-party partisan sensationalism in the world is pretty much worthless compared to the first-hand knowledge and objectivity of the people who voted to topic-ban him. Kudos to Anthony Watts for providing that information.
 
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C'mon mate, show us that graphic again which colourfully asserts that we have little data and low understanding of everything under the sun - as well as the sun itself! You're letting the team down here, and missing a golden opportunity to show how really quite strong your position is :lol:

But you already know what it says and have yet to take issue with any of its statements :roll:
 
Seriously, from the number of times this stuff gets posted do you guys think that 'Wikigate' is some kind of major international scandal, or what?

Look my friend I lived through this and I know it happened. Indeed it was this systematic and comprehensive reverse engineering of history that was the genesis of my skepticism more than a decade ago now
 
Look my friend I lived through this and I know it happened. Indeed it was this systematic and comprehensive reverse engineering of history that was the genesis of my skepticism more than a decade ago now

Given the fact that while debating this scientific topic I have so far seen you A) cite a total of maybe four or five scientific papers in about as many years and B) grossly misunderstand and/or profess ignorance even of some relatively simple concepts, it's quite difficult to believe that you were an avid follower of peer-reviewed climate science in the 70s. You don't know, in other words.

Sensational headlines about an ice age during a New York or London winter really aren't the same thing as a scientific consensus. There's really no surprise here, but just going through that Popular Technology list of 116 headlines which you posted earlier you can easily see that there were about 14.9 headlines per month in the five coldest months (73 total, not counting the two from SH May and June) but only 5.8 headlines per month in the other seven (would be only 5/month in the warmer seven, but some scientist managed to get himself 11 headlines in September 1972). Check for yourself, please. Furthermore those headlines are mostly from higher-latitude regions, though that may be largely due to population distribution in the Anglosphere. I only checked a little over one third of the list, but found 27 headlines from newspapers based above ~37° north or south and only 7 from more sub-tropical regions (and some such as the Christian Science Monitor or Popular Science which couldn't really be pinned down geographically).

It's hard to view these figures as mere coincidence, especially since it's already been shown that there were almost certainly more 'warming' papers in the 1970s than 'cooling' ones (but with most climate-related scientists probably not having any strong conclusions). Whatever you remember from forty years ago has a lot more to do with newspaper sales than scientific enquiry.
 
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Given the fact that while debating this scientific topic I have so far seen you A) cite a total of maybe four or five scientific papers in about as many years and B) grossly misunderstand and/or profess ignorance even of some relatively simple concepts, it's quite difficult to believe that you were an avid follower of peer-reviewed climate science in the 70s. You don't know, in other words.

Many were sublinked on the link I already provided and the CIA provided a report to Nixon outlining the potential consequences so this was no urban myth much as I know how you would like to paint it as such.

Anyone my age can certainly confirm that

You've bought into Gavin Schmidts BS so its unsurprising you also bought into Greenpeace activist William Connollys rewriting of history as well :roll:
 
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Many were sublinked on the link I already provided and the CIA provided a report to Nixon outlining the potential consequences so this was no urban myth much as I know how you would like to paint it as such.

Anyone my age can certainly confirm that

You've bought into Gavin Schmidts BS so its unsurprising you also bought into Greenpeace activist William Connollys rewriting of history as well

When did I say it was an urban myth? I explicitly stated that some scientists certainly believed in imminent global cooling. But the CIA are not considered a scientific authority :roll: They advise on foreign intelligence and the political ramifications of possible contingencies. On the other hand nine years before that CIA contingency report to Nixon, President Johnson's Science Advisory Council raised the issue of CO2 emissions and global warming:

As early as 1965 a report by the US President's Science Advisory Committee summarized the risks implied by and limitations to contemporary understanding of CO2 emissions:
The possibility of climatic change resulting from changes in the quantity of atmospheric carbon dioxide was proposed independently by the American geologist, T. C. Chamberlain (1899) and the Swedish chemist, S. Arrhenius (1903), at the beginning of this century. Since their time, many scientists have dealt with one or another aspect of this question, but until very recently there was little quantitative information about what has actually happened. Even today, we cannot make a useful prediction concerning the magnitude or nature of the possible climatic effects. But we are able to say a good deal more than formerly. . . .


One of the most recent discussions of these effects is given by Moller (1963). He consisders the radiation balance at the earth's surface with an average initial temperature of 15°C (59°F), a relative humidity of 75 percent, and 50% cloudiness. We may compute from his data that with a 25 percent increase in atmospheric CO2, the average temperature near the earth's surface could increase between 0.6°C and 4°C (1.1°F to 7°F), depending on the behaviour of atmospheric water vapour content. . . . A doubling of CO2 in the air, which would happen if a little more than half the reserves of fossil fuels were consumed, would have about three times the effect of a twenty-five percent increase.

As Moller himself emphasized, he was unable to take into account.... In consequence, Moller's computations probably over-estimate the effects on atmospheric temperature of a CO2 increase.​

The "list of over 285 papers... showing there was a near consensus of an imminent global cooling" posted by Flogger has previously been proven nothing more than dishonest propaganda. For example it includes items such as Bach et al 1976 as an imminent global cooling paper (#146 on the list) despite its abstract saying:
"However, in the near future, far-reaching adverse climatic and ecological consequences can be expected because the CO2 increase is too rapid for the regulatory mechanisms of the oceans. The impact of an increasing aerosol loading cannot be assessed reliably yet. The net effect will probably be small or one of warming."

I have pointed this out two times already in this thread, and in earlier threads. But for some reason you seem to be utterly incapable of coming to terms with the reality that there were scientists holding both warming and cooling concerns in the 60s and 70s, probably with most undecided either way.

Hell, even if there had been a contrary majority opinion in earlier decades, all that does is highlight the overwhelming weight of evidence necessary to overturn previous paradigms - unless you want to assert some ridiculous notion that scientists just make everything up as they go along, or some even more far-fetched conspiracy theory to explain the supposed paradigm shift. Luckily for modern contrarians there simply isn't any evidence of an earlier cooling consensus, except in the imaginations of folk who depend on sensationalist journalism to inform their 'scientific' views.

But since you are so thoroughly and counter-productively wedded to this notion of a cooling consensus; possibly willing to assert whatever fantasy is necessary to explain the alleged paradigm shift without acknowledging the weight of scientific evidence; and most disturbingly, have proven yourself happy to stoop to the misrepresentation and insults above as soon as reality intrudes, I really can't imagine it's worth responding to you any further :peace
 
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Many were sublinked on the link I already provided and the CIA provided a report to Nixon outlining the potential consequences so this was no urban myth much as I know how you would like to paint it as such.

Anyone my age can certainly confirm that

You've bought into Gavin Schmidts BS so its unsurprising you also bought into Greenpeace activist William Connollys rewriting of history as well :roll:
In 1975 the NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES issued a report called
"UNDERSTANDING CLIMATIC CHANGE
A Program for Action"
https://archive.org/stream/understandingcli00unit/understandingcli00unit_djvu.txt
While it is subjective, to me, their main concern was global cooling, as exemplified in their INTRODUCTION .
It is not primarily the advance of a major ice sheet over our farms
and cities that we must fear, devastating as this would be,
for such changes take thousands of years to evolve. Rather,
it is persistent changes of the temperature and rainfall in areas
committed to agricultural use, changes in the frost content of Canadian and
Siberian soils, and changes of ocean temperature in areas of high
nutrient production, for example, that are of more immediate concern.
 
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