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Why Do Climate Scientists Act So Much Like Con Artists?

[h=3]A little known 20 40 year old climate change prediction by Dr. James ...[/h]https://wattsupwiththat.com/.../a-little-known-but-failed-20-year-old-climate-change-p...



Oct 22, 2009 - While doing research 12 or 13 years ago, I met Jim Hansen, the ... Then he explained, “The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. ... Sea level plot - just off Manhattan Island - Graph: University of ..... New readers might find the list of philosophicalquotations from ...

Hansen is actually an exceptional scientist. He just lets his faith in AGW control his science.

Religion should stay out of science!
 
Well, this leads me to my hobby horse du jour. But first some other
Climate Brigade B.S. and scams:

When the glaciers are gone the rivers will dry up.
That's B.S. because it will still rain and snow in the valley and the
rain water and snow melt will still flow in the river.

Antarctica is melting.
It's well below freezing all year round in almost all of Antarctica,
it's not melting. And won't any time soon.

The deep ocean abyss is warming.
No it's not, water below the thermocline is a constant temperature.
It doesn't warm up.

The polar bear population is declining.
No it's not and they've been told as much by the people who live in
places like the Davis Straight.

Warming from 1911 to 1945 was natural but warming since 1975 is anthropogenic.
Because they say so.

Then there's the hundreds of ridiculous headlines you can find on the
Numbers Watch webpage.

OK that's enough, I am really annoyed with the "Methane pound for pound
is 86 times as potent a greenhouse gas as is CO2
" meme that has appeared
in the last year or so. No one it seems wants to step up to the plate and
call B.S. on it. That’s what annoys me. First of all CO2 is about five or
six times better at absorbing infrared in the atmospheric window than
methane. Any casual observation of any of the charts you can pull up on
an image search of "atmospheric window” will tell you that. Besides, what
does 86 times more powerful than CO2 exactly mean? It doesn't say anything
useful about how much a given increase in methane will run up the temperature.
It is in fact a colossal misdirection worthy of the best con-men.

The tipoff that it's a con is the "Pound for Pound" tag line that often
appears with it. Methane has about 36% the mass of CO2, so in any pound
for pound comparison an equal concentration of CO2 in parts per million
(ppm) must be reduced to 36% of that. Let's say you added 2 ppm to methane
to the atmosphere which would effectively double its concentration and
added an equal mass of CO2. 36% of 2 ppm CO2 comes to 0.72 ppm. So CO2
at 400 ppm would become 400.72 ppm while methane's concentration was doubled.
Well at this point you can see what's going on. But it's pretty convoluted
to get to this far. And that's what makes it such a beautiful scam. An
extra 0.72 ppm of CO2 isn't going to raise the temperature very much and 86
times whatever that comes to isn't very much either. But the 86 times as
potent meme sure makes it sound like a hobgoblin worth clamoring to be
saved from.

OH! I didn't answer your question. Why do they behave like con artists?
Because they have found out that they can get away with it.

Just coming to give some links for these arguments :


1. When the glaciers are gone the rivers will dry up

This it would seem is true. Glaciers are the direct source of water for rivers. A lot of glaciers are receeding, the amount of rain & snow aren't enough to maintain the glacier. Thus if the source dies, so does the river.
Receding glacier causes immense Canadian river to vanish in four days

2. Antarctica is melting
Indeed it's not, the Arctic is though.
Antarctic Sea Ice Reaches New Record Maximum

3. The Deep Ocean is warming
This too is false.
Study Finds Earth’s Ocean Abyss Has Not Warmed

4. Polar bear population is declining
That is indeed not true. It's actually rising.
 
Just coming to give some links for these arguments :


1. When the glaciers are gone the rivers will dry up

This it would seem is true. Glaciers are the direct source of water for rivers. A lot of glaciers are receeding, the amount of rain & snow aren't enough to maintain the glacier. Thus if the source dies, so does the river.
Receding glacier causes immense Canadian river to vanish in four days

2. Antarctica is melting
Indeed it's not, the Arctic is though.
Antarctic Sea Ice Reaches New Record Maximum

3. The Deep Ocean is warming
This too is false.
Study Finds Earth’s Ocean Abyss Has Not Warmed

4. Polar bear population is declining
That is indeed not true. It's actually rising.
I had read about the Canadian river, but the water did not go away, it went down another water course.
 
I had read about the Canadian river, but the water did not go away, it went down another water course.

It's not gone yet, but it shows that glaciers have a direct impact on the river. Once the glacier is gone, there will be no more river.

It sounds kinda obvious to me. Maybe it isn't... Glaciers are the source of rivers. Glaciers are receding because the weather isn't cold enough. No river = no river or at least not a big river, only a river fueled by occasional the occasional rain & snow.
 
It's not gone yet, but it shows that glaciers have a direct impact on the river. Once the glacier is gone, there will be no more river.

It sounds kinda obvious to me. Maybe it isn't... Glaciers are the source of rivers. Glaciers are receding because the weather isn't cold enough. No river = no river or at least not a big river, only a river fueled by occasional the occasional rain & snow.
The Glacier does preform a storage/accumulation role, but unless the rainfall changes, the river should still flow.
The direct impact of the glacier in Canada was that when the ice receded far enough, the water found an alternate path out.
 
Hansen is actually an exceptional scientist. He just lets his faith in AGW control his science.

Religion should stay out of science!

Hansen pushes the extreme high impact region of the probability curve. Just like the luke warmers push the lower end. Both are potentially correct. It's not religion at all. He is indicating the threat as part of what should be considered as part of a risk assessment. All his assessments are within the range of scientific uncertainty. Just like the low ballers are.
 
[h=3]A little known 20 40 year old climate change prediction by Dr. James ...[/h]https://wattsupwiththat.com/.../a-little-known-but-failed-20-year-old-climate-change-p...



Oct 22, 2009 - While doing research 12 or 13 years ago, I met Jim Hansen, the ... Then he explained, “The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. ... Sea level plot - just off Manhattan Island - Graph: University of ..... New readers might find the list of philosophicalquotations from ...

A prediction made within a peer-reviewed journal? I think not. An off the record comment to a reporter? Absolutely.

Why not tell the whole story?
 
You should familiarize yourself with the work of Svensmark, Shaviv and Kirkby, among others.

You should realize that the scientific community has investigated the claims of Svensmark and found them irrelevant at best. The cosmic ray flux is real, it's impact on clouds and climate has not been demonstrated.
 
What I am trying to show, is that over the years, the amount of energy imbalance from doubling the CO2 level, (and hence the CO2 input warming)
has steadily declined. The second reason for citing the more recent paper, is that the Armour paper contained a good method section,
but it showed that even the 3.44 Wm-2 is simply an assumption, and not based on any empirical evidence.
The Models infer a static response rate, which is why the error is so large.
The Climate is for more complex, and has more variables than are accounted for in the models.
FYI, many of the models derived a response based of the observations between 1978 and 1998, and tried to project that forward,
in their grids. The problem was while some warming occurred in the next 16 years, it was no where near the rate predicted by the models.
Only the timely arrival of the 2015-2016 El Nino kept the models from completely falling apart.
Since the El Nino is a net zero weather event, time will average out the peak, and the models will be in question again in a few years.

Models predict the impact of CO2 on the system. They do not and can not know how the Sun will behave or when and at what frequency ENSO will occur. This uncertainty impacts on the short term much more greatly than on the long term.

And ENSO is not a weather event. It's a case of climate variability within which weather occurs.

While ENSO is a detrended metric netting zero impact on global temperature, the average temperature of ENSO events has been steadily increasing over decades of time.
 
The Glacier does preform a storage/accumulation role, but unless the rainfall changes, the river should still flow.
The direct impact of the glacier in Canada was that when the ice receded far enough, the water found an alternate path out.

Will the river still flow during the dry season when the water is most needed if there is no glacier?
 
Hansen pushes the extreme high impact region of the probability curve. Just like the luke warmers push the lower end. Both are potentially correct. It's not religion at all. He is indicating the threat as part of what should be considered as part of a risk assessment. All his assessments are within the range of scientific uncertainty. Just like the low ballers are.
I do not think that is accurate, I think the high end of the old probability curve, is now invalid.
All of this comes back to how much total energy imbalance they think doubling the CO2 level will cause.
Hansen in 1997, said the Flux change from doubling the Co2 level would be 4.19 Wm-2.
In 2001 TAR (Baede) had the level at 4 Wm-2,
By AR5, the number been refined down to 3.71 Wm-2.
A more recent papers place the number at (Armour,et al 2017) 3.44 Wm-2
What I am saying is that over the past 20 years (1997 to 2017) the estimate of what would cause
the temperature to increase from added CO2 has declined by 18%, yet the range of temperature
that in theory would result from that Flux change, has not changed at all.
If the cause of the theorized temperature increase goes down, the entire range of uncertainty must follow.



Many do not know the source of this number.
It is not measured, but calculated, and does not even represent the total energy entering and leaving that atmosphere,
but rather the energy imbalance (Flux change)that would occur at the tropopause.
The total energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere would actually be lower.
https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1997/1997_Hansen_ha01900k.pdf
Table 2, From Hansen's 1997 paper shows the Top of Atmosphere number from doubling the CO2 level
to be 2.62 Wm-2.
To me, the amount of the total energy entering and leaving the system, is more important,
than an imbalance theorized at some midway point.
If the two numbers are not the same, then we have energy that is escaping undetected.
 
Will the river still flow during the dry season when the water is most needed if there is no glacier?

That depends on the rainfall patterns in the area, but rivers themselves have a storage/accumulation function,
all be it not the same time frame as Glaciers.
 
Models predict the impact of CO2 on the system. They do not and can not know how the Sun will behave or when and at what frequency ENSO will occur. This uncertainty impacts on the short term much more greatly than on the long term.

And ENSO is not a weather event. It's a case of climate variability within which weather occurs.

While ENSO is a detrended metric netting zero impact on global temperature, the average temperature of ENSO events has been steadily increasing over decades of time.

The ENSO is exactly a weather event because as you cited "While ENSO is a detrended metric netting zero impact on global temperature".
The global temperature is increasing, so one would expect the average temperature of weather events to increase as well.
Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs
It takes about a 48 month mean to flatten out a ENSO event, but it does flatten out!
 
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You should realize that the scientific community has investigated the claims of Svensmark and found them irrelevant at best. The cosmic ray flux is real, it's impact on clouds and climate has not been demonstrated.

We shall see.
 
A prediction made within a peer-reviewed journal? I think not. An off the record comment to a reporter? Absolutely.

Why not tell the whole story?

so why did Hansen act like a con man: to trick folks into believing in AGW. Its turned out to be a very stupid strategy because most don't believe in AGW now in large part thanks to the con man approach.

also off the record means: anonymous and not for publication designed to give reporter background with which to deepen understanding and give direction for further inquiry. Hanson's comments were not off the record in any sense, but rather designed to be on the record to scare the crap out of us. Further, the comments were lies given he assumed a doubling of C02 to lend urgency and drama to his lies as if people keep track of total CO2 and know its meaning.
 
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so why did Hansen act like a con man: to trick folks into believing in AGW. Its turned out to be a very stupid strategy because most don't believe in AGW now in large part thanks to the con man approach.

also off the record means: anonymous and not for publication designed to give reporter background with which to deepen understanding and give direction for further inquiry. Hanson's comments were not off the record in any sense, but rather designed to be on the record to scare the crap out of us. Further, the comments were lies given he assumed a doubling of C02 to lend urgency and drama to his lies as if people keep track of total CO2 and know its meaning.

I can not speak for Hansen or anyone else, but what he says is entirely within the realm of possibility. Unlikely? Most likely. We could be hit by an asteroid within the next 10 years, but you wouldn't call the effort to detect Earth crossing asteroids a con man's game would you?

The dire need for AGW intevention exists far below the level of risk pushed by Hansen. Oh, and more people than not do understand the need to do so. It's political conservatives who largely do not. Also at 2-3 ppm increase per year, CO2 will be doubled from 280 ppm by sometime this century.
 
I can not speak for Hansen or anyone else, but what he says is entirely within the realm of possibility.

he's the head AGW scientist con man, and he didn't talk about it being within the realm of possibility. he implied parts of Manhattan would be under water now!!!

the other big con is the switch from warming to climate merely because nobody gave a crap about warming. Surprise, there is no evidence that climate is getting worse let alone that it is getting worst and caused by mankind!!
 
. Also at 2-3 ppm increase per year, CO2 will be doubled from 280 ppm by sometime this century.

Hanson didn't say by sometime this century, he said by today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
It's political conservatives who largely do not.

yes they understand our Constitution which was designed to protect us from 10001 liberal scams to centralize power in liberal central govt!! Do you understand this?
 
Hanson didn't say by sometime this century, he said by today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Right. Given assumptions that were not realistic by the interviewer.

It's like someone asking 'What would it be like if someone dumped sulfuric acid in the pool?' And he answered 'people would be burned severely'.... and you are whining that no one in the pool has experienced a burn.
 
Hanson didn't say by sometime this century, he said by today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No he didn't. Show me the peer-reviewed study which concludes CO2 would have doubled by now or that parts of NYC would be permanently under water by now...don't bother, you won't find it. Talk is cheap. Show me the actual scientific reports made which supports those claims.
 
That depends on the rainfall patterns in the area, but rivers themselves have a storage/accumulation function,
all be it not the same time frame as Glaciers.

So rivers feed by glacial melt will not disappear with the glaciers? Got it. There are literally billions of people dependent upon glacial melt for their water supply...but nothing to worry about. 100 or 200 years from now when the glacial rivers are reduced to a trickle those billions will do just fine...maybe God will take care of them. We live in a world where nothing can go tragically wrong.
 
yes they understand our Constitution which was designed to protect us from 10001 liberal scams to centralize power in liberal central govt!! Do you understand this?

What I understand is that science doesn't give two hoots about your ideological beliefs. Beyond that, does the whole world live by the U.S. constitutional guidelines? You understand that global warming is a whole world issue which must be solved by all the world's nations don't you? If the U.S. constitution is so rigid and inflexible as to not allow for problem solving then it is one dangerous piece of writing to be sure. However, that is not the case...you are a conspiracy theorist.
 
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