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Why Climate Change is good for the world

So you agree with the OP? That warming is good? Once we reach a point where the Earth absorbs more heat energy that it loses, which is what warming is, how are we gong to stop it from melting all the ice on earth? Far from a "hyper exaggeration", it appears inevitable to me. Why is the future so difficult for you to comprehend?

You did not do well in physics at school did you.

Warming stops when the planet gets warm enough to radiate as much heat as it is recieving.

Given that that is expected to be slight don't worry about it.
 
How do you know that? The Earth has been glacier free before. What other conclusion could absorbing more heat energy than we lose produce?
No glaciers on Antarctica too?
 
How do you know that? The Earth has been glacier free before. What other conclusion could absorbing more heat energy than we lose produce?

Even as a plumber I am expected to do maths to calculate the heat requirements for central heating and to be able to calculate the size of a radiator for a given room.

If you have a single candle as your heating in your house on a cold winter's day you will be very cold. Adding another candle will not cause your house to boil no matter how long you burn the candles.

The ice that is around at the present is almost all so well protected from melting due to warming that it will need something in the order of +15c or much more to get anywhere near worth the effort to even start looking at it as a possibility.
 

Even as a plumber I am expected to do maths to calculate the heat requirements for central heating and to be able to calculate the size of a radiator for a given room.

If you have a single candle as your heating in your house on a cold winter's day you will be very cold. Adding another candle will not cause your house to boil no matter how long you burn the candles.

The ice that is around at the present is almost all so well protected from melting due to warming that it will need something in the order of +15c or much more to get anywhere near worth the effort to even start looking at it as a possibility.

You analogy is ridiculous. The sun is not a candle and when more of it's energy is absorbed then lost it must go somewhere. The "permafrost" is melting as we speak the glaciers will be next.
 
No glaciers on Antarctica too?

But in fact there have been many ice ages, most of them long before humans made their first appearance. And the familiar picture of an ice age is of a comparatively mild one: others were so severe that the entire Earth froze over, for tens or even hundreds of millions of years.

In fact, the planet seems to have three main settings: “greenhouse”, when tropical temperatures extend to the poles and there are no ice sheets at all; “icehouse”, when there is some permanent ice, although its extent varies greatly; and “snowball”, in which the planet’s entire surface is frozen over.

Antarctica wasn’t always a frozen wasteland. It wasn’t until around 34 million years ago that the first small glaciers formed on the tops of Antarctica’s mountains. And it was 20 million years later, when world-wide temperatures dropped by 8 °C, that the glaciers’ ice froze onto the rock, and the southern ice sheet was born.

This temperature drop was triggered by the rise of the Himalayas. As they grew higher they were exposed to increased weathering, which sucked CO2 out of the atmosphere and reduced the greenhouse effect.

The northern hemisphere remained relatively ice-free for longer, with Greenland and the Arctic becoming heavily glaciated only around 3.2 million years ago.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18949-the-history-of-ice-on-earth/
 
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You analogy is ridiculous. The sun is not a candle and when more of it's energy is absorbed then lost it must go somewhere. The "permafrost" is melting as we speak the glaciers will be next.

The degree of warming is very slight. That will result in a slight increase in temperature. That will melt a very small amount of the ice. Then stop. This is because the amount of additional energy the earth has to radiate is slight and the slight temperature rise will do it.

I cannot explain it any more simply.
 


Yes we are all well aware of this.

The reason we have the present ice age is the same as all previous ice ages. That is that there is a large land mass over the pole. Also the North pole has a sea mostly surrounded by land having a similar effect.

This allows winter snows to build up and be so cold that the summers do not melt them. If there was open ocean over the South pole then the ocean would transfer heat to the polar region well enough for it not to freeze and of course the ice colud drift away from the pole.

We do know this sort of stuff.
 
Yes.

I don't think your numbers are correct. Human activity puts about 30 gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere, and there is approximately 750 gigatons currently cycling through the atmosphere. Half of that is captured, the rest increases the total amount in the atmosphere. There are also some questions about whether we're maxing out the natural carbon sinks. The end result is a massive spike in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.

We also constantly reduce the amount of natural carbon storage systems, and release their carbon back to the atmosphere. Coal, oil, trees etc store carbon, and that carbon is released when those types of fuels are burned.

Plus, there are feedback effects. As global temperatures rise, other carbon containment systems start to release carbon. For example, the small increases in temperatures have allowed Siberian permafrost to melt. This results in the release of methane (a greenhouse gas), which in turn causes more warming, which melts more permafrost, which results in the release of yet more methane... There are dozens of feedbacks that affect the climate.

The extra 100 PPM we are allegedly responsible for DOES represents 0.01% of our atmosphere. If you can't even cope with the basic maths here then theres not much more to say
 
Whilst I agree with you on this mostly I still have to put in my bit...



Good luck predicting what human industry will be doing in 50 years. Solar power looks like being better than coal well before then.



If it's an ice shelf it's floating and can easily break off but will never add anything to sea levels as it's already floating.



Every monsoon deposits at least 2cm of mud on Bangladesh, and that's if you are 10km away from the river, you will have to work hard to find such a place.

By 2100 Bangladesh will be bigger not smaller.

Every claim of doom by the doomsayers falls down with a small anount of challenge.

I said a volume the size of the Ross Ice Shelf :roll: Instead of deciding that because you don't like what they say the World Bank is full of alarmists and doomsayers, maybe you should provide a credible information source which supports what you're saying?
 
Yes it is all a conspiracy to ruin you day.........How many record hot years do you need? 14 of the 15 hottest years on record have occurred since 2000.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/feb/02/14-15-hottest-years-record-2000-un-global-warming

To be fair, that's a slightly old article:
- The past three years have each in turn broken all previous records
- The five hottest years have all occurred since 2010
- From paleoclimate data, it's almost certain that they've been the hottest years in the past 500
- The past 16 years (2001-16) have all made up the 17 hottest years on record, with 1998 the other one
- The past 30 years (1987-2016) have all been in the top 33 hottest years on record*

By implication the past 30 years have almost certainly been the hottest thirty-year period in at least the past 800 years, and have a high probability of having been hotter globally than any thirty-year stretch of the Medieval Warm Period (which would then make it the hottest period in over 2000 years). Alternatively the same could be said of the past 20 years (all of which rank in the top 22 on record). I'm not sure which period has the highest probability of exceeding the medieval bump; the past 20 years obviously had a higher average temperature, but a longer period helps improve the likelihood of exceeding the uncertainty and resolution issues from proxy composites.



*Edit: Fun fact; according to both GISS and HadCRUT, 1944 was slightly hotter than 1992 and 1993. 1983 also makes the top 33, plus either 1980 or 81 depending on whether you look at GISS or HadCRUT.
 
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By implication the past 30 years have almost certainly been the hottest thirty-year period in at least the past 800 years,

Well if it was warmer 800 years ago and that was natural why isn't this then ? The ice core records from both poles show today is quite unexeptional even over just the last 4000 years as you have been shown multiple times now

and have a high probability of having been hotter globally than any thirty-year stretch of the Medieval Warm Period (which would then make it the hottest period in over 2000 years).

There is no way you could possibly know that. The LIA was one of the coldest periods in the last 10,000 years so its little wonder then that the natural recovery from it we see today should be equally pronounced

This is a natural phenomenon that has been hijacked by those with poltical agendas like yours
 
I said a volume the size of the Ross Ice Shelf :roll: Instead of deciding that because you don't like what they say the World Bank is full of alarmists and doomsayers, maybe you should provide a credible information source which supports what you're saying?

Which bit?

Do you need a citation on how much mud is left behind by a monsoon in Bangladesh? Or that the Ross ice shelf will not effect sea levels if it melts oir does not melt or what?
 
Which bit?

Do you need a citation on how much mud is left behind by a monsoon in Bangladesh? Or that the Ross ice shelf will not effect sea levels if it melts oir does not melt or what?

You claimed that the impacts of climate change on Bangladesh are/will be different than what is accepted by credible sources such as the World Bank. Do you have a source for your claim?
 
You claimed that the impacts of climate change on Bangladesh are/will be different than what is accepted by credible sources such as the World Bank. Do you have a source for your claim?

http://lib.icimod.org/record/21400/files/c_attachment_84_612.pdf

2 billion t/yr of sediments are deposited in the delta each year.

Does this help? I heard the stat of 2cm deposition for land 10km away from the rivers on the radio and they said that you wil lstruggle to find land 10km away from the rivers in Bangladesh.
 
Well if it was warmer 800 years ago and that was natural why isn't this then ? The ice core records from both poles show today is quite unexeptional even over just the last 4000 years as you have been shown multiple times now



There is no way you could possibly know that. The LIA was one of the coldest periods in the last 10,000 years so its little wonder then that the natural recovery from it we see today should be equally pronounced

This is a natural phenomenon that has been hijacked by those with poltical agendas like yours

Why do think that constantly playing dumb and throwing out empty slander is going to accomplish anything?

Over the past million-plus years, the interglacial periods have been geologically brief warm periods caused by orbital variation, which 'soon' give way to fresh glacial periods. You know that perfectly well, but for some reason you think that pretending to be ignorant is a good way to make an argument. During the deglaciation period, warming oceans and melting ice release CO2 and CH4, which further accelerate the warming process; hence the return to glacial conditions has consistently been noticeably slower than the initial warming.
400px-Vostok_Petit_data.svg.png

(From Wikipedia)

The Holocene thermal maximum (or Holocene climatic optimum) occurred around 9,000 to 5,000 years ago. Surface insolation actually peaked nine or ten thousand years ago, and since then the planet has been gradually receiving less solar energy in the long term, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere where the larger land-masses are more responsive to climatic forcing. (From memory that's also why the previous interglacial was warmer than both this one and the one before it: 125,000 years ago the Northern Hemisphere was closest to the sun during summer, whereas now the opposite is the case.)

MarcottOrbital.jpg
(From Marcott et al 2013)

Hence, over the past 5,000 years or more the long- long-term trend has been global cooling as the planet moves back towards another glacial period. There has been plenty of shorter-term variation, such as the unusually warm medieval period and the cooler than usual Little Ice Age coincident with the sun's Maunder Minimum. But solar activity peaked in 1959 and has been generally declining since then. Natural variation can't account for much if any of the past 50 years' increasing global temperatures, and can only partially explain the 60 years before that.

The resolution of the proxies in Marcott et al 2013 is too low to capture century-scale temperature swings, but shows clearly the long-term Holocene trend:
Marcott1.jpg

Again, all of this is stuff that you know, or should know, from your years on the forum. So why play dumb about it? What did you hope to accomplish? Proxy reconstructions covering only the last thousand or two thousand years have much higher resolutions, and they show that while there've been plenty of hemispheric and possibly even global temperature swings over two or three decades which were about as rapid as the early 20th century warming, at least, there's been nothing to match more than 0.9 degrees' warming over 100+ years, as we've seen recently. On the other hand this dramatic interruption of the long-term trend, continuing even as solar activity and other natural forcings have declined, is exactly what's expected from the fact that greenhouse gas concentrations been increasing so far above natural variation due to human activity. Where correlation with other known causal factors is low or even negative, the correlation between temperature and the main anthropogenic GHG has been extremely strong, particularly in the past half-century as anthropogenic forcings have come to play a larger role compared with natural variation:

lnCO2.jpg
(Data available on Google sheets)
 
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http://lib.icimod.org/record/21400/files/c_attachment_84_612.pdf



Does this help? I heard the stat of 2cm deposition for land 10km away from the rivers on the radio and they said that you wil lstruggle to find land 10km away from the rivers in Bangladesh.

2 billion tonnes would be a little over 1cm of soil per year depending on density and area covered (I assumed 1/3 of Bangladesh's total) - but that figure does not account for erosion. I couldn't find more accurate information of net deposition/subsistence from a quick search, but I did find a 2014 study which looks particularly interesting. Hugh Brammer (Bangladesh’s dynamic coastal regions and sea-level rise) emphatically argues against "a widespread misconception that a rising sea-level with global warming will overwhelm Bangladesh’s coastal area," and suggests that population pressures are a much more immediate and important concern. Furthermore he suggests that some of the measures appropriate in responding to that will help with mitigating the impacts of sea level rise also. But for all that, the message still is obviously not 'nothing to worry about'; in fact his comments in conclusion give some idea of the daunting challenge which sea level rise will pose for many low-lying regions:

Bangladesh?s dynamic coastal regions and sea-level rise

In relation to sea-level rise, the most important early measure required is to start making more detailed assessments of the current physical, economic and human geography of the different physiographic regions and subregions within and adjoining the coastal zone in order to provide a comprehensive factual basis for planning current and future development. Existing institutions for monitoring tide levels, river flow, soil and water salinity, land levels and land use need to be strengthened. Field surveys will be needed to supplement existing information (some of which, like soil surveys carried out 50 years ago, will need to be updated); and interpretations of satellite images must be supported by adequate ground truthing. Such surveys will need to be followed by relevant studies to identify, test and cost appropriate intervention measures for individual areas, including institutional and political measures that might be needed to implement and support identified measures (Brammer, 2010). Budgets and time-frames for implementation in different areas will then need to be drawn up. Patently, it will be essential to engage local people in such studies and decisions in order both to harness their local environmental knowledge and to gain their support for implementing and supporting changes that are considered necessary in both their own and the national interest. The geographical diversity and complexity of Bangladesh’s coastal zone and the multidisciplinary nature of many of the mitigation measures identified suggest that a comprehensive Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan is needed, along the lines of the Dutch delta management plan, with appropriate staffing to prepare, operate and oversee it5.

As was indicated earlier, many of the measures described above are needed regardless of a rising sea-level with global warming. So are several similar land and water management and institutional measures in other parts of the country to feed and employ the burgeoning population. Future sea-level rise − and climate change, also reviewed in Brammer (in press) − merely add urgency to the existing need for a national plan to implement relevant measures to safeguard, maintain and accelerate economic and social development in the country in pace with its growing population and its exposure to existing environmental hazards (Brammer, 2010). The range of studies needed in order to formulate such an integrated development plan in Bangladesh − the country in which intervention to meet current and future development needs is perhaps most urgently required − could provide a model for such planning in other countries with low-lying coastal areas.​
 
Why do think that constantly playing dumb and throwing out empty slander is going to accomplish anything?

Well not that dumb that I reference Marcott 2013 as some kind of sole affirmation which as he himself conceded ". . . the 20th century portion of our paleotemperature stack is not statistically robust, cannot be considered representative of global temperature changes . . ."

The reason being the duration and number of the proxies used being insufficient. Why would you choose to emphasise this paper which is so at odds with the great mass of paleoclimatic studies to date ?

Medieval Warm Period

Roger Pielke Jr.'s Blog: Fixing the Marcott Mess in Climate Science

Over the past million-plus years, the interglacial periods have been geologically brief warm periods caused by orbital variation, which 'soon' give way to fresh glacial periods. You know that perfectly well, but for some reason you think that pretending to be ignorant is a good way to make an argument. During the deglaciation period, warming oceans and melting ice release CO2 and CH4, which further accelerate the warming process; hence the return to glacial conditions has consistently been noticeably slower than the initial warming.

I mentioned the last 4000 years so why is this relevant ?

The Holocene thermal maximum (or Holocene climatic optimum) occurred around 9,000 to 5,000 years ago. Surface insolation actually peaked nine or ten thousand years ago, and since then the planet has been gradually receiving less solar energy in the long term, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere where the larger land-masses are more responsive to climatic forcing. (From memory that's also why the previous interglacial was warmer than both this one and the one before it: 125,000 years ago the Northern Hemisphere was closest to the sun during summer, whereas now the opposite is the case.)

Again this is irrelevent. In the just last 4000 years we have had a number of warmer periods than today and there is a ton of evidence supporting this

C3: 5 Modern Temps: Unprecedented or Similar To Past?

So as you can see there really is nothing whatsoever that is unprecedented about today except the hype

Hence, over the past 5,000 years or more the long- long-term trend has been global cooling as the planet moves back towards another glacial period. There has been plenty of shorter-term variation, such as the unusually warm medieval period and the cooler than usual Little Ice Age coincident with the sun's Maunder Minimum. But solar activity peaked in 1959 and has been generally declining since then. Natural variation can't account for much if any of the past 50 years' increasing global temperatures, and can only partially explain the 60 years before that.

Since we know so little of what can influence these shorter term variations and certainly not over 50 years so thats a pretty big leap of faith (or is that agenda?) you've got going there
 
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Since we know so little of what can influence these shorter term variations and certainly not over 50 years so thats a pretty big leap of faith (or is that agenda?) you've got going there

We know a great deal about both climatic forcing influences and internal variability. Some things we don't know - and we've got a fair outline of many if not most of them too, usually uncertainty in the range of influence which particular variables have. Scientists have been studying most forms of climate forcing and internal variability for over half a century, and believe it or not science tends to be fairly good at working things out, or at least recognizing areas of ongoing uncertainty. Reviewing a 1981 paper which projected with surprising accuracy the ~0.5 degree temperature rise which has since come to pass, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh and Rein Haarsma of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute write:

They got 10 pages in Science, which is a lot, but in it they cover radiation balance, 1D and 3D modelling, climate sensitivity, the main feedbacks (water vapour, lapse rate, clouds, ice- and vegetation albedo); solar and volcanic forcing; the uncertainties of aerosol forcings; and ocean heat uptake. Obviously climate science was a mature field even then: the concepts and conclusions have not changed all that much. Hansen et al clearly indicate what was well known (all of which still stands today) and what was uncertain.​

Please don't insult your own intelligence by once again posting your propaganda image asserting that we have little data and low understanding of every single thing under the sun :roll: Your modus operandi is not scepticism: It's simply closing your eyes and covering your ears and screaming "Can't hear you, don't know anything!"

Except when you find something you like, of course.
 
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We know a great deal about both climatic forcing influences and internal variability. Scientists have been studying most forms of climate forcing and internal variability for over half a century, and believe it or not science tends to be fairly good at working things out, or at least recognizing areas of ongoing uncertainty. Reviewing a 1981 paper which projected with surprising accuracy the ~0.5 degree temperature rise which has since come to pass, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh and Rein Haarsma of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute write:

They got 10 pages in Science, which is a lot, but in it they cover radiation balance, 1D and 3D modelling, climate sensitivity, the main feedbacks (water vapour, lapse rate, clouds, ice- and vegetation albedo); solar and volcanic forcing; the uncertainties of aerosol forcings; and ocean heat uptake. Obviously climate science was a mature field even then: the concepts and conclusions have not changed all that much. Hansen et al clearly indicate what was well known (all of which still stands today) and what was uncertain.​

Please don't insult your own intelligence by once again posting your propaganda image asserting that we have little data and low understanding of every single thing under the sun :roll: Your modus operandi is not scepticism: It's simply closing your eyes and covering your ears and screaming "Can't hear you, don't know anything!"

Except when you find something you like, of course.

So if we know so much about these short term variations and understand them as well as you say then how do you explain this then ?

christy_dec8.jpg

Nuff said :lol:
 
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