Apocalypse Cancelled

An interesting thought: the supply of fossil fuels is not enough to bring on warming of even 1 degree C in the 21st century. We can all go home now.


Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Estimates of future atmospheric CO2 values as a result of future emissions, called “scenarios”, fall into two camps—demand driven, and supply driven. A recent paper entitled “The implications of fossil fuel supply constraints on climate change projections: A supply-driven analysis” by J.Wang, et al., paywalled here, has a good description…

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Here’s the takeaway message. Using the most extreme of the 16 estimates of future CO2 levels along with the higher of the two TCR estimates, in other words looking at the worst case scenario, we are STILL not projected to reach one measly degree C of warming by the year 2100.
More to the point, the best bet given all the data we have is that there will only be a mere half a degree C of warming over the 21st century.
Can we call off the apocalypse now?

Estimates of future atmospheric CO2 values as a result of future emissions, called “scenarios”, fall into two camps—demand driven, and supply driven. A recent paper entitled “The implications of fossil fuel supply constraints on climate change projections: A supply-driven analysis” by J.Wang, et al., paywalled here, has a good description of the difference between demand and supply driven scenarios in their abstract:

Tim the plumber said:

Given we have 60+ years of proven oil supplies at recent prices and much more if the price goes above $120 a barrel and that there is much more coal down there than we will ever use I don't see why there is likely to be any serrious restriction of supply this century.

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I think fossil oil will price itself out of the market. The will still be a demand for oil for plastics and other feedstocks,
just not for fuel. I think at about $90 a barrel, the refineries will find it is more profitable to make their own feedstock.
This makes a hard ceiling for the price, many of the enhanced recovery techniques are not economically viable at $90 a barrel.

Jack Hays, your articles have no credible scientific sources. Try again.

Oil won't price itself out of the market so long as it remains an inflexible commodity. The cost of everything will just go up, including food, home heating, transportation, etc. The oil barons don't care how destitute nations become as long as they get paid by somebody.

Northern Light said:

Jack Hays, your articles have no credible scientific sources. Try again.

Oil won't price itself out of the market so long as it remains an inflexible commodity, the cost of everything will just go up, including food, home heating, transportation, etc. The oil barons don't care how destitute nations become as long as they get paid by somebody.

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Oil has a cost of goods sold just like anything else.
There is a very measurable cost to get oil to the input of the refinery, and it is not zero!
When the cost of making their own feedstock from wholesale electricity, water, and atmospheric CO2, is less than the
cost of paying for oil to be brought in, the refineries will choose the path with the most profit.
FYI, oil companies do not sell oil, but rather finished fuel products and lubricants.
So far, fossil oil was the only choice out there, now there are alternatives, and they also have real costs of goods sold numbers.
I have not worked in the oil business for several decades, but they have always been heavy into research and development. (not so much into publishing)
I would be surprised if the Exxon, Chevron, and Shell, did not already have plans in place.
The cheap, easy oil has been found, and mostly exploited, there may be quite a bit left, but it will not
be cheap or easy to extract and get to the refinery.

Northern Light said:

Jack Hays, your articles have no credible scientific sources. Try again.

Oil won't price itself out of the market so long as it remains an inflexible commodity. The cost of everything will just go up, including food, home heating, transportation, etc. The oil barons don't care how destitute nations become as long as they get paid by somebody.

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Not sure why you think a paper published in Science Direct is not credible, but suit yourself.

longview said:

I think fossil oil will price itself out of the market. The will still be a demand for oil for plastics and other feedstocks,
just not for fuel. I think at about $90 a barrel, the refineries will find it is more profitable to make their own feedstock.
This makes a hard ceiling for the price, many of the enhanced recovery techniques are not economically viable at $90 a barrel.

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Well, yes, at that sort of price alternative sources of petrol start becoming workable. That still means that there will not be a supply problem of any significance.

And there is loads af oil.

Tim the plumber said:

Well, yes, at that sort of price alternative sources of petrol start becoming workable. That still means that there will not be a supply problem of any significance.

And there is loads af oil.

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I agree, oil is in no danger of running out, it just will not be economically viable to extract for fuel.