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Record Wheat Crop This Year

LowDown

LowDown

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General Francisco Franco is still dead, and Paul Ehrlich is still spectacularly wrong.

A generation after leading scientists and experts warned the world of an escalating series of horrendous famines, the crop gluts continue. The latest kick in the pants to the Malthusian doomsayers is a bumper global wheat harvest. Defying not only the Club of Rome doomsayers, but also the climate Chicken Littles who have been warning about damage from rising temperatures to world agriculture, food production is booming even as meteorologists call July 2016 the hottest month ever.
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Agricultural production just keeps going up and up. CO2 is known to act as a fertilizer, so maybe it's playing a part here.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09...hottest-year-ever-come-record-wheat-harvests/
 
LowDown said:
General Francisco Franco is still dead, and Paul Ehrlich is still spectacularly wrong.



Agricultural production just keeps going up and up. CO2 is known to act as a fertilizer, so maybe it's playing a part here.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09...hottest-year-ever-come-record-wheat-harvests/
Click to expand...

It is increased prices that are driving most of the increased production...tilled land has increased by 11% since 2005. Prices are going to crash and farmers are going to decrease production. That's the cycle. As usual, Watts missed the boat. It is not caused by CO2 pollution.

The International Grains Council estimates that inventories of soy, wheat, barley, and corn are reaching their highest volume in 30 years. In the United States, this year’s corn harvest is expected to top last year’s, which was also unprecedented. Europe is setting records with its wheat and corn harvests, and Canada is doing the same with wheat, barley, and oats. “The new abundance will have broad effects, weakening incomes of farmers and companies that supply them, fattening profit margins at food and biofuel companies and—eventually—slowing food price inflation for consumers in rich and poor countries alike,” writes Gregory Meyer of the Financial Times.

And what has caused this explosion in grain supplies? Prices. They’ve been unusually high in recent years and have encouraged farmers to pour money into boosting production. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, from 2005 to 2013 the land used to cultivate wheat, soy, and corn grew by 11 percent globally. Never before has such a large swath of the earth been tilled.
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The World Is Full of Grain - The Atlantic
 
iguanaman said:
It is increased prices that are driving most of the increased production...tilled land has increased by 11% since 2005. Prices are going to crash and farmers are going to decrease production. That's the cycle. As usual, Watts missed the boat. It is not caused by CO2 pollution.



The World Is Full of Grain - The Atlantic
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[h=2]Record hottest year means record bumper wheat crop, opposite of crop models[/h]
Last year there were warnings from crop modelers in Nature that heat kills wheat and yields were going to fall in the “near future”, if temperatures rose. In fact global warming was “already slowing wheat gains”. What followed was a record El Nino, and 2015 was the hottest ever year, with 2016 vying to beat it. But instead of wheat doom, this month the USDA forecasts a record yield of wheat with bumper crops globally. Wheat output has grown in Australia, the US, Russia, Ukraine, everywhere pretty much, except the EU where it has been too rainy. Where are the mea culpas? h/t to the GWPF
Jan 2015, published in Nature. “Global Wheat Yield May Drop as Temperatures Rise”
“… researchers are now letting farmers know that the world’s wheat yields are excepted decline in the near future, with the world standing to lose six percent of its wheat crop for every degree Celsius that the annual global temperature increases.
“The simulations with the multi-crop models showed that warming is already slowing yield gains, despite observed yield increases in the past, at a majority of wheat-growing locations across the globe,” researcher Senthold Asseng, at the University of Florida, explained in a statement.”
August 2016: USDA projects 743m ton wheat production from 2016/2017 year
USDA current August forecast is for 743 million tons, up from 734 million last year (estimated).
Looks like yet another global warming disaster:
​
 
iguanaman said:
It is increased prices that are driving most of the increased production...tilled land has increased by 11% since 2005. Prices are going to crash and farmers are going to decrease production. That's the cycle. As usual, Watts missed the boat. It is not caused by CO2 pollution.



The World Is Full of Grain - The Atlantic
Click to expand...

Increased prices? Prices have fallen for the last 4 years, but production is still rising. The number of acres planted with wheat world wide have declined since the 1980s and have been more or less flat for the past 20 years. Since 1980 wheat production world wide has almost doubled.
 
LowDown said:
General Francisco Franco is still dead, and Paul Ehrlich is still spectacularly wrong.



Agricultural production just keeps going up and up. CO2 is known to act as a fertilizer, so maybe it's playing a part here.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09...hottest-year-ever-come-record-wheat-harvests/
Click to expand...

...CO2 is known to act as a fertilizer, so maybe...

M A Y B E ?

erets1.jpg


CO2 is up 40% and the carbon liberated via photosynthesis is the basic building block of life on Earth.

Higher concentrations of CO2 allow green plants to increase their ability to absorb CO2 while losing less water. Hence CO2 promotes agriculture with less irrigation or in more arid conditions.

(somehow there's an attached image button I managed to hit and I'm on my way out the door and haven't the time to figure out how to undo it)
 

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So what's to debate?
 
Umm...

Am I the only one seeing the common method of cherrypicking stats here?

This year has slightly more wheat than last year. Cool. What is the overall trend from, lets say, the last 30 years? And, maybe more importantly, how are other crops fairing?
 
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Leafsdude said:
Umm...

Am I the only one seeing the common method of cherrypicking stats here?

This year has slightly more wheat than last year. Cool. What is the overall trend from, lets say, the last 30 years?
Click to expand...

Is the price of bread going to go down any time soon?
 
Verthaine said:
Is the price of bread going to go down any time soon?
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No. We are using loads of food as fuel. This is a disguised agricultural subsidy. The price of basic food has been inflated by between 40% to 70%.

This is killing lots of people. There is debate on how many some say it's as low as a couple of hundred thousand per year but I cannot see it being less than 20 million people per year. The poorest billion people live on less than $1.25 a day.

It is also utterly impoverishing the poorest couple of billion people in the world to keep rich western farmers rich. Bio-deisel is a crime against humanity.
 
Leafsdude said:
Umm...

Am I the only one seeing the common method of cherrypicking stats here?

This year has slightly more wheat than last year. Cool. What is the overall trend from, lets say, the last 30 years? And, maybe more importantly, how are other crops fairing?
Click to expand...

Does post 4 ansswer you?
 
Tim the plumber said:
Does post 4 ansswer you?
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Considering it's a 15-year graph of raw data without any attempt to measure a trend (not to mention that it was posted before I made my comment), no, it really doesn't.
 
Leafsdude said:
Considering it's a 15-year graph of raw data without any attempt to measure a trend (not to mention that it was posted before I made my comment), no, it really doesn't.
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You can't look at a graph and see that it's going up??? You need somebody to draw a line on it for you do you??
 
backpacker said:
Go to Aldi's if you have one. Loaf bread is cheap there.
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Unfortunately I live in Louisiana and the nearest one is in Texas.
Plus I prefer to buy locally whenever possible.
Part of my business plan.
Buy locally and give back to the community.
You can't imagine how much business I get from just doing that.
I put it on par with paid advertising and usually a lot cheaper.
 
Verthaine said:
Unfortunately I live in Louisiana and the nearest one is in Texas.
Plus I prefer to buy locally whenever possible.
Part of my business plan.
Buy locally and give back to the community.
You can't imagine how much business I get from just doing that.
I put it on par with paid advertising and usually a lot cheaper.
Click to expand...
We have Aldi's near me, but they seem to only have good prices on a few selected items.
 
Verthaine said:
Unfortunately I live in Louisiana and the nearest one is in Texas.
Plus I prefer to buy locally whenever possible.
Part of my business plan.
Buy locally and give back to the community.
You can't imagine how much business I get from just doing that.
I put it on par with paid advertising and usually a lot cheaper.
Click to expand...

I usually make my own, but if I need to buy, I have no problem shopping at places like Aldi's. We are supposed to be getting some other cheap as dirt euro-chain similar to them in the next year or so once they clear/level the land and build out, but sure, driving round trip to Texas for a loaf of bread might drive up the cost a wee bit.
 
backpacker said:
I usually make my own, but if I need to buy, I have no problem shopping at places like Aldi's. We are supposed to be getting some other cheap as dirt euro-chain similar to them in the next year or so once they clear/level the land and build out, but sure, driving round trip to Texas for a loaf of bread might drive up the cost a wee bit.
Click to expand...

I own ten restaurants and buying locally is cheaper in the long run.
 
Verthaine said:
I own ten restaurants and buying locally is cheaper in the long run.
Click to expand...

Seems like making your own bread would be cheaper in the long run if you own that many restaurants unless they are fast food.
 
backpacker said:
Seems like making your own bread would be cheaper in the long run if you own that many restaurants unless they are fast food.
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I'm thinking of opening up a bakery in N.O. to supply my restaurants here with bread and desserts and seeing how that goes first before I try it in the other state's I have my restaurants in.
I am also thinking of investing in a micro brewery and restaurant supply business.

I'm always looking for new business opportunities to grow and expand.
 
Tim the plumber said:
No. We are using loads of food as fuel. This is a disguised agricultural subsidy. The price of basic food has been inflated by between 40% to 70%.

This is killing lots of people. There is debate on how many some say it's as low as a couple of hundred thousand per year but I cannot see it being less than 20 million people per year. The poorest billion people live on less than $1.25 a day.

It is also utterly impoverishing the poorest couple of billion people in the world to keep rich western farmers rich. Bio-deisel is a crime against humanity.
Click to expand...

Quite true.

Maybe the 'greenies' would allow consideration for turning off the government life support money on that one.

Last summary that I read substantiated that there was more energy (pollution / GHG emissions) expended in converting corn into fuel than you could ever save by using it as fuel. :screwy

So in essence, mandating the use of corn based Ethanol you are speeding up the climate warning, not slowing it down. Well, so much for theoreticians and academicians who advise congress on energy policy getting anything correct about the real world. Also kinda makes you wonder how many other things they got wrong before or since.
 
Verthaine said:
I'm thinking of opening up a bakery in N.O. to supply my restaurants here with bread and desserts and seeing how that goes first before I try it in the other state's I have my restaurants in.
I am also thinking of investing in a micro brewery and restaurant supply business.

I'm always looking for new business opportunities to grow and expand.
Click to expand...

Many people have started them locally and failed just selling baked goods/desserts. The ones that survived and flourished are the ones that do quick lunches and sell things like custom made pimento cheese, chicken salad and the like by the pound. People will settle for grocery store bread to save themselves a trip, but if they are buying a pound of chicken salad for dinner, they will go ahead and grab the bread while they are there. Just something to consider.

As for wheat/corn/soybean in general, I expect that eventually rice/buckwheat flour will overtake them given the move toward gluten free diets and non-GMO's.
 
Verthaine said:
I'm thinking of opening up a bakery in N.O. to supply my restaurants here with bread and desserts and seeing how that goes first before I try it in the other state's I have my restaurants in.
I am also thinking of investing in a micro brewery and restaurant supply business.

I'm always looking for new business opportunities to grow and expand.
Click to expand...
We had a local Italian restaurant, my Wife and I frequented, they also had a commercial bakery that supplied
their breads and desserts. Over the years, the bakery also supplied many other area restaurants.
Last year the restaurant closed, but the bakery is still up and running.
(I wish they had a retail counter!)
 
longview said:
We had a local Italian restaurant, my Wife and I frequented, they also had a commercial bakery that supplied
their breads and desserts. Over the years, the bakery also supplied many other area restaurants.
Last year the restaurant closed, but the bakery is still up and running.
(I wish they had a retail counter!)
Click to expand...

I was blessed with the power of schmoozing.
When I first became a head chef,I would love to take a break and mingle with customers (actually,that's how I met my second wife) to gauge how the night was.
I'd sit at a customers table,order a round of drinks or desserts on the house,and just talk and listen to them (that's the key part,listening)with them.
That's how I met an investor willing to help me create my own restaurants.
I'm a frugal kind of guy,and I don't like dealing with banks or bankers,so we pooled our resources and created my first restaurant.
I brought his half of the shares and made it truly mine.

It's amazing what you can accomplish if you just talk and listen to someone,rather than talking over them
 
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