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A Review of the Oroko Swamp Data Set

Jack Hays

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Here Steve McIntyre reviews some issues and difficulties with archiving and presentation of a specific proxy data set. Of note is another instance of splicing observed temperature data onto proxy data when the proxy data goes the "wrong" way. The backstory is also instructive in showing how difficult it is to gain access to data.

https://climateaudit.org/2016/08/13/esper-et-al-2016-and-the-oroko-swamp/

Jan Esper, prominent in early Climate Audit posts as an adamant serial non-archiver, has joined with 17 other tree ring specialists, to publish “Ranking of tree-ring based temperature reconstructions of the past millennium” (pdf). This assesses 39 long tree ring temperature reconstructions. The assessment is accompanied by an archive containing 39 reconstruction versions, together with the underlying measurement data for 33 of 39 reconstructions. (It seems odd that measurement data would continue to be withheld for six sites, but, hey, it’s climate science.)
Because I’ve been recently looking at data used in Gergis et al, I looked first at Esper’s consideration of Oroko, one of two long proxies retained in Gergis screening. I’ve long sought Oroko measurement data, first requesting it from Ed Cook in 2003. Cook refused. Though Oroko reconstructions have been used over the years in multiproxy studies and by IPCC, the underlying measurement data has never made archived The archive for Esper et al 2016 is thus the very first archive of Oroko measurement data (though unfortunately it seems that even the present archive is incomplete and not up-to-date).
Despite claims to use the most recent reconstruction, Esper’s Oroko temperature reconstruction is decidedly out of date. Worse, it uses a n Oroko “reconstruction” in which Cook replaced proxy data (which went down after 1960) with instrumental data (which went up) – in a contemporary variation of what is popularly known as “Mike’s Nature trick”, though Mike’s Nature trick, as discussed at CA here, was a little different.
In today’s post, I’ll look at the “new” Oroko data, which, needless to say, has some surprises. . . .
 
Here Steve McIntyre reviews some issues and difficulties with archiving and presentation of a specific proxy data set. Of note is another instance of splicing observed temperature data onto proxy data when the proxy data goes the "wrong" way. The backstory is also instructive in showing how difficult it is to gain access to data.

https://climateaudit.org/2016/08/13/esper-et-al-2016-and-the-oroko-swamp/

Jan Esper, prominent in early Climate Audit posts as an adamant serial non-archiver, has joined with 17 other tree ring specialists, to publish “Ranking of tree-ring based temperature reconstructions of the past millennium” (pdf). This assesses 39 long tree ring temperature reconstructions. The assessment is accompanied by an archive containing 39 reconstruction versions, together with the underlying measurement data for 33 of 39 reconstructions. (It seems odd that measurement data would continue to be withheld for six sites, but, hey, it’s climate science.)
Because I’ve been recently looking at data used in Gergis et al, I looked first at Esper’s consideration of Oroko, one of two long proxies retained in Gergis screening. I’ve long sought Oroko measurement data, first requesting it from Ed Cook in 2003. Cook refused. Though Oroko reconstructions have been used over the years in multiproxy studies and by IPCC, the underlying measurement data has never made archived The archive for Esper et al 2016 is thus the very first archive of Oroko measurement data (though unfortunately it seems that even the present archive is incomplete and not up-to-date).
Despite claims to use the most recent reconstruction, Esper’s Oroko temperature reconstruction is decidedly out of date. Worse, it uses a n Oroko “reconstruction” in which Cook replaced proxy data (which went down after 1960) with instrumental data (which went up) – in a contemporary variation of what is popularly known as “Mike’s Nature trick”, though Mike’s Nature trick, as discussed at CA here, was a little different.
In today’s post, I’ll look at the “new” Oroko data, which, needless to say, has some surprises. . . .

It looks like "Jeff Id" drives the final nail in the coffin on Aug. 15, 2016 at 10:27 AM. I'll admit to being a little bit buffaloed by the "inside baseball" wordplay of the scientists in your rolling e-mail. It sounds to me like they are in basic agreement that global warming is a hoax. Please advise.
 
It looks like "Jeff Id" drives the final nail in the coffin on Aug. 15, 2016 at 10:27 AM. I'll admit to being a little bit buffaloed by the "inside baseball" wordplay of the scientists in your rolling e-mail. It sounds to me like they are in basic agreement that global warming is a hoax. Please advise.

Steve McIntyre is an heroic figure in the skeptic community, and his ClimateAudit blog definitely attracts skeptics.
 
Steve McIntyre is an heroic figure in the skeptic community, and his ClimateAudit blog definitely attracts skeptics.

McIntyre clearly poo-poos the "Hockey Stick." I read a little about his background. Does his lack of formal training in climate "science" attract a scholarly audience or are his acolytes a bunch of fire breathing antiestablishment groupies?

My broader question goes to the validity of the Elephant In The Room. Do we have cancer or is this just politics as usual?
 
McIntyre clearly poo-poos the "Hockey Stick." I read a little about his background. Does his lack of formal training in climate "science" attract a scholarly audience or are his acolytes a bunch of fire breathing antiestablishment groupies?

My broader question goes to the validity of the Elephant In The Room. Do we have cancer or is this just politics as usual?
He does have at least one published paper.
http://web.archive.org/web/20070412094238/http://www.climateaudit.org/pdf/mcintyre.grl.2005.pdf
As for the Elephant in the room, the proxy data is very subjective.
If the researcher, knows there will likely be followup grants, if his subjective interpretation,
points to recent warming, that is within the broad range of the data! I.E. no one is lying.
Tree growth speed is affected by several factors, temperature being only one of many.
The funding imbalance can cause issues with the science, but the data will only stretch so far
before it becomes implausible.
 
McIntyre clearly poo-poos the "Hockey Stick." I read a little about his background. Does his lack of formal training in climate "science" attract a scholarly audience or are his acolytes a bunch of fire breathing antiestablishment groupies?

My broader question goes to the validity of the Elephant In The Room. Do we have cancer or is this just politics as usual?

McIntyre's relevant expertise is statistics, which he shares with his often-partner Professor Ross McKittrick. Criticisms of scientific papers posted at McIntyre's blog often result in published corrections although authors are reluctant to cite McIntyre because they don't want to irritate the consensus enforcement types.
 
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Gentlemen,

Thank you.

Quaz
 
McIntyre clearly poo-poos the "Hockey Stick." I read a little about his background. Does his lack of formal training in climate "science" attract a scholarly audience or are his acolytes a bunch of fire breathing antiestablishment groupies?

My broader question goes to the validity of the Elephant In The Room. Do we have cancer or is this just politics as usual?
I think I should point out why I think the stretching of the data has limits.
Here Is Michael Mann's prediction in Scientific American.
Earth Will Cross the Climate Danger Threshold by 2036 - Scientific American
earth-will-cross-the-climate-danger-threshold-by-2036_large.jpg
He says we will cross the 2C threshold in 20 years, just two decades,
The last full year 2015 has an average of .87 C
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
To get to 2 C in 2 decades would require warming of 1.13 C, or .565 C per decade.
How does that compare to warming described as extraordinary in the temperature record?
Within the GISS the biggest increase over time would be 1964 at -.2C to 2015 at .87C,
an increase of 1.07 C in 5.1 Decades, or .209 C per decade.
What about the hellish ramp up between 1978 and 1998, the period that is the basis of this concept.
1978 .07 C, 1998 .63 C, .56 C, or .28 C per decade.
So Dr. Mann is saying we will start warming at twice the the highest per decade rate ever observed,
and do so for two decades in a row!
I guess I am skeptical!
 
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