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Thread: The Dunning-Kruger Effect

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    The Dunning-Kruger Effect

    Or why we think we're smarter than we are

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    "I had nothing to do with Russia helping me to get elected."

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    Re: The Dunning-Kruger Effect

    In part, as much as I like to characterize Chump as a bumbling idiot, his success belies that assessment. In spite of his inability to articulate complex subjects and his disdain for reading, he has a devoted following... I call them Trumpanzees... many of whom go to his rallies and cheer for him.

    I align with the Anti-Trumpers. I look forward to the Era of Chump ending sooner than later!



    Quote Originally Posted by Trippy Trekker View Post
    What do Betsy Devos, Steve Mnuchin, Wilbur Ross, Carl Icahn, Stephen Schwarzman, Stephen Feinberg, Steven Roth, Richard LeFrak and Robert Woods Johnson IV have in common with Donald J. Trump?

    Yep, they all have millions and millions of dollars at their personal disposal. Trump considers most if not all of these people his peer group. I don't begrudge a single one of them for their riches. I begrudge them for lack of clarity in their motives to accept a service position within the Trump Administration.

    IMO, without real talent, Trump would not have succeeded at becoming POTUS. Confidence and competence provide a much higher probability of success in most endeavors than does luck. I mainly take issue with Trump because I perceive him as unprincipled, overtly ambitious and narcissistic. He has absolutely no track record of making the Common Welfare of Americans anywhere close to a top priority.

    Any comments?

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    Re: The Dunning-Kruger Effect

    Keep in mind that the point of the DKE is that it happens to everyone. It's not a partisan thing, it's not even a "dumb person" thing. It's that everyone, at some point or another, overestimates their knowledge precisely because of the lack of knowledge. The limits of our understanding can prevent us from seeing those limits.

    David Dunning talks a bit about the rather ironic misconceptions of the theory in an interview with Vox:
    The Dunning-Kruger effect, and how to fight it, explained by psychologist David Dunning - Vox
    "Everyone should listen to me all the time about everything." - Rosa Diaz

    "When the mistakes fall disproportionately on one side, it is no respect for the notion of truth to pretend that everything is even." - Lee McIntyre

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    Re: The Dunning-Kruger Effect

    I don't know what your problem is, folks, because I sure know what I'm talking about!

    Okay, seriously, it is always easier to see the lack of ability and understanding in others than in ourselves. I see it A LOT on these forums. There are, of course, some objective measures that can be used - for example, having a degree in a subject, or enough knowledge to at least provide a reference to support a point. Because I know I don't know it all (although, at least I know most of it), I look for support from people who do know more than I do.
    Mission: "to defend and preserve the individual rights and liberties guaranteed to every person in this country by the Constitution and laws of the United States." ACLU. Why isn't every American a member?

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    Re: The Dunning-Kruger Effect

    The first rule of the Dunning Kruger club is that you don't know you are in the Dunning Kruger club
    Quote Originally Posted by Hannah Arendt
    "The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction (i.e., the reality of experience) and the distinction between true and false (i.e., the standards of thought) no longer exist."

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    Re: The Dunning-Kruger Effect

    Quote Originally Posted by RAMOSS View Post
    The first rule of the Dunning Kruger club is that you don't know you are in the Dunning Kruger club
    My biggest fear too. I read it and thought, well how do I know that's not me?
    "I had nothing to do with Russia helping me to get elected."

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    Re: The Dunning-Kruger Effect

    Quote Originally Posted by uptower View Post
    My biggest fear too. I read it and thought, well how do I know that's not me?
    You try to learn, and examine 1) what the data is, 2) What the experts say about the data and then you figure out how much you don't know. If you can see how much you don't know, then you are at least beyond the first stage.
    Quote Originally Posted by Hannah Arendt
    "The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction (i.e., the reality of experience) and the distinction between true and false (i.e., the standards of thought) no longer exist."

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    Re: The Dunning-Kruger Effect

    Another thing to understand about Dunning-Kruger is that it is what makes con men (a la Trump) so good at their game. First, because they are blithely ignorant of the subject, they can be supremely confident they know what they are talking about. "Con", in this context, means is exactly that - confidence (confidence man, or confidence game). They then gain the confidence of their targets. Second, because their targets are also ignorant of the subject, but loathe to admit it, they can be convinced of a proposition by someone who displays that confidence. That, I think, explains Trump's success so well. It is, literally, the blind leading the blind. It is also why those who do understand are so vehemently against him (and see him as exactly the ignorant con man he is), and vexed that others can't see or accept that "reality". As the saying goes, "there are none so blind as those who will not see."
    Mission: "to defend and preserve the individual rights and liberties guaranteed to every person in this country by the Constitution and laws of the United States." ACLU. Why isn't every American a member?

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