Buck Naked
DP Veteran
- Joined
- Dec 11, 2010
- Messages
- 1,280
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The DJI final low will be somewhere between $13000- $5000.
This is Phase Three: After phase two completes, the markets will fall relentlessly, devastating in their destruction in terms of price. Fundamentals will ultimately collapse in response. As the denial and disillusionment of phase one, two and of market structural warnings disappears, anxiety, dismay, distress and fear take over. There is no place to hide except in gold, likely silver, likely cash, likely a very few cryptocurrencies(95%+ will collapse to zero), likely treasuries, as well as a few possible other investment vehicles.
My thoughts: Phase two likely will not complete during Trump’s first term and continue on during the first year of the next presidential term. If Trump wins a second term, he’ll be eventually impeached and removed or resign for whatever reason after midterm elections as phase three will devastate market price, unemployment will skyrocket past 10%, retirement accounts will have halved and his base will have lost faith in him and begin to blame him. If Biden or Sanders wins, they’ll be a one term President as “it’s the economy, stupid” for which they can do nothing, as no President can do anything meaningful(but I have little belief this will put that myth to bed).
This phase in EWP terms will be Wave ‘C’
The stock markets will eventually find its low point somewhere between the Fibonacci levels of 0.618($11400 DJI) and 0.88($3560 DJI) as measured from the July 1st, 1932 low on the DJI chart to the ATH on February 3rd, 2020. I personally don’t think it will find it’s bottom near the .618(Golden ratio) level simply because it won’t have “the right look” as Mr Elliott describes and Lionardo di ser Piero da Vinci has postulated. It will look too short, uncompleted, unfinished, partial at the .618 level. Between the .78 and .88 Fibonacci levels seem more likely as the bottom, final low.
A Death Cross(a lagging indicator) in terms of technical analysis on the weekly chart will occur in the first quarter of this phase. If one isn’t completely out of the market by this time, this will be their last area of chance to get out as the markets will collapse from this point further another 50%, at minimum, until it finds the bottom wherever that may be.
This will not be the apocalypse, but it will hurt too many people.
I have known for over thirty years that this wave would likely happen in my lifetime, but I have never felt from my inner being such a desire, wish, longing and hope to be wrong as I do now.
But making investment decisions based on hope is for the fool…