Page 3 of 6 FirstFirst 12345 ... LastLast
Results 21 to 30 of 56

Thread: The Great Bear is coming out of it's 87 year hibernation

  1. #21
    Educator

    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Last Seen
    11-15-19 @ 08:45 AM
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    1,185

    Re: The Great Bear is coming out of it's 87 year hibernation

    Quote Originally Posted by csbrown28 View Post
    What you aren't considering is that productivity exploded when the US decoupled from a commodity standard. This released massive amounts of global productivity of which the US dollar is the greatest portion of. If you're looking at the DJI historically and think that it's bound to fail because of its recent rise, you aren't factoring in why it's risen so much.
    You’re correct, I’m not considering why it exploded or try to find reasons why it exploded. I may have confused you( and perhaps, others) with an earlier post listing reasons why I’m unsure of the financial world and how crypto may dramatically disrupt it, but when it comes to trading, I ignore or disregard any reasons I may have. I only base my decision on the chart, using Elliott wave principles as my guide.

    You may have heard of the expression, ”Show me a chart, and I’ll tell you the news”. Well, that is how I trade. No news items or series of developments can be regarded as the underlying cause of any sustained trend. In fact, over a long period of time the same events have had widely different effects because trend conditions were dissimilar. You can verify this just by casual study of the DJI over the past 100 years. During that period, Kings and Presidents have been assassinated, we have had two world wars, we had booms, busts, panics, bankruptcies, New Era, New Deal, and all sorts of historic and emotional developments. Yet all bull and bear markets evinced similar characteristics that controlled and measured the response of the market to any type of news or developments as well as the extent and proportions of the component segments of the trend as a whole. It is easy to label the progression of Elliott waves on a historical price chart, but it is impossible to pick out the occurrences of war on the basis of recorded stock market action. Try and verify it for yourself if you don’t believe me.

    I’m attempting to explain, that it is not news or a series of developments that forms patterns in the markets, but cycles in psychology or Nature’s Law, and Elliott wave does the best at answering those questions, particularly as the period of time gets longer and the larger the market. I have been counting waves for decades now, disregarding any developments that may have occurred or might have occurred. Like Fibonacci identified the Sequence, I trade on cycles, ignoring all news or human created developments as noise.

  2. #22
    Educator

    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Last Seen
    11-15-19 @ 08:45 AM
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    1,185

    Re: The Great Bear is coming out of it's 87 year hibernation

    Quote Originally Posted by csbrown28 View Post
    Crypto, on the other hand, is a PURELY speculative investment, with zero intrinsic value and very little extrinsic value relative to its perceived value. It makes a terrible currency first because it's so volatile, but second because people are more likely to save then they are to spend it. GDP is measured in spending and demand is a function of GDP. I think virtual currencies might have a niche, but they are not a replacement in any way shape or form for national currencies for more reasons than I care to enumerate.
    It was a speculative market in it’s first several years, but now there has been more accumulative investment made in building upon the protocol and applications than speculative traders investing in the price(which currently stands around 250 billion). The accumulative investment into companies and development of crypto and protocols has surpassed a trillion dollars worldwide(which may well have passed a trillion since I stopped keeping track of it over a year and a half ago). If it was just speculative, bitcoin should has passed $100000 by now. Ask yourself why people and companies have invested more into development, companies and applications than the total market capitalization at its all time peak(750 billion)? Are they just burning capital for no reason?

    “Intrinsic value”? I may go down this rabbit hole in the future, but it’s a deep one and one that will take much time for me to help you understand, but in general, the intrinsic value question is misconstrued, full of hyperbole and not an important measure.
    But, I’ll start with some questions to provoke thought, what intrinsic value do fiat currencies have? And what do think is the intrinsic value of gold in terms of price? And most important, what price do you put on the ability to trust?

    On the subject of Crypto as a currency; This is another subject that takes time for me explain and if you’re interested, I will, but it will take much effort on your part. But here are a couple of quick, unelaborated fundamentals to get your thoughts moving. First, BTC is most importantly, a protocol. One of it’s applications is as a currency, like email is an application to the internet, whereas, BTC, the currency is an application of BTC, the protocol. Confusing isn't it. This is fundamental in understanding BTC. The possibilities of new tech evolving from BTC is infinite. Second, BTC, the protocol is trust in mathematics, completely removing the human characteristic of lying.

    You’ll have to excuse me as I can write about crypto for months on end, so I’ll leave it there.

    And yes, it doesn’t make for a good currency for most nations, especially for the West. At least for now and probably into the foreseeable future. But that doesn’t equate that it won’t be in the future. The Volatility trend has been getting lower since it conception. However, interpreting BTC as just a currency is just not understanding what BTC(protocol) is and has the potential to be, even well beyond the financial space.

    In it’s simplest form, BTC is Trust digitalized, now imagine all the applications and improvements to current systems that can evolve and be developed out of that tech.

    People like to diminish crypto, but I think it's their misunderstanding of it that makes them tend towards that direction.
    Last edited by Buck naked; 10-18-19 at 06:42 PM.

  3. #23
    Educator

    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Last Seen
    11-15-19 @ 08:45 AM
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    1,185

    Re: The Great Bear is coming out of it's 87 year hibernation

    Chart Ending Diagonal.jpg

    STRATEGY - My strategy is to continue to count the subwaves of ‘ending diagonal’ wave 5 and attempt to sell as high as possible within the High Probability Sell Target/Reversal Range Area.

    High Probability Sell Target/Reversal Range Area = $27398.7-$28127 (I shall sell in this range)(I will attempt to pick the top price reversal)
    Active StopSell Order = $26700. (In case Sell Target/Reversal Range Area is not reached)(This price may change as more candles are pasted revealing more info)
    StopBuy Order = Pending until sell order is executed. (Placed after sell order is executed in case my forecast is incorrect)
    Currently = I am counting the Minuette degree(in red) waves as they unfold while waiting and forecasting for the NEAR completion of Minuette degree(in red) wave 5 to sell.
    See CHART ‘DJI Minuette waves’

  4. #24
    Educator

    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Last Seen
    11-15-19 @ 08:45 AM
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    1,185

    Re: The Great Bear is coming out of it's 87 year hibernation

    Update

    Getting closer to a high probability top in the DJI.

    CHART ‘DJI Minuette waves’.jpg

    STRATEGY -I am continuing to count the subwaves of ‘ending diagonal’ wave 5 and subminuette waves(in yellow) and micro degree waves(not labeled) with an attempt to sell as high as possible within the High Probability Sell Target/Reversal Range Area.

    High Probability Sell Target/Reversal Range Area = $27398.7-$28127 (I shall sell in this range)(I will attempt to pick the top price reversal)

    Revised Active StopSell Order = $26900. (In case Sell order is not executed)(This price may change as more candles are pasted revealing more info)

    StopBuy Order = Pending until sell order is executed. (Placed after sell order is executed in case my forecast is incorrect)

    Currently = I am counting the micro degree waves(not labeled) as I interpret this is the final wave 5 of Minuette degree(in red) and possible final wave 5 of Subminuette degree(in yellow). See CHART ‘DJI Minuette waves’. I have shown possible targets. The final set of five micro degree waves may have just barely begun, but too early to tell.

  5. #25
    Educator

    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Last Seen
    11-15-19 @ 08:45 AM
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    1,185

    Re: The Great Bear is coming out of it's 87 year hibernation

    Update

    The DJI Peak/Reversal has a very high probability of taking place this week.

    CHART2 ‘DJI Minuette waves’.jpg CHART2 closeup view.jpg

    High Probability Sell Target/Reversal Range Area = $27398.7-$28127 (I shall sell in this range)(I will attempt to pick the top price reversal)

    REVISED Active StopSell Order = $27400. (In case Sell order is not executed)(This price may change as more candles are pasted revealing more info)

    StopBuy Order = Pending until sell order is executed. (Placed after sell order is executed in case my forecast is incorrect)

    Currently = See CHART2 ‘DJI Minuette waves’. Subminuette degree waves are very difficult to count with accuracy. The Top might be in at $27560.4, however, there could be another set of five waves in the subminuette degree(in yellow) that may carry price higher. There are other scenarios/models which I won’t describe, but basically, the minimum price I would get is $27400 if the StopSell is triggered, with a possibility of selling higher if it moves higher without triggering the StopSell.


    Note: For the ignorant, one can’t trade the DJI directly. One can’t short or long the DJI directly. My forecast is for general stock market sentiment through demonstration of how to trade the DJI if it were possible.

  6. #26
    Educator

    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Last Seen
    11-15-19 @ 08:45 AM
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    1,185

    Re: The Great Bear is coming out of it's 87 year hibernation

    Update

    No change, except for raising the StopSell order.

    REVISED Active StopSell Order = $27560.

  7. #27
    Traveler

    Jack Hays's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Location
    Williamsburg, Virginia
    Last Seen
    Today @ 12:34 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    80,243
    Blog Entries
    3

    Re: The Great Bear is coming out of it's 87 year hibernation



    BusinessMarketWatch
    ‘This is the most prosperous economy the world has ever seen’ says Jamie Dimon - and it’s going to continue

    While many investors may worry about the effects that the U.S.-China trade war, Brexit and Middle East tensions are having on the global economy, Jamie Dimon


    "Waste no more time arguing what a good man should be. Be one." --Marcus Aurelius

  8. #28
    Guru
    Cordelier's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2017
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 10:33 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Slightly Liberal
    Posts
    3,747

    Re: The Great Bear is coming out of it's 87 year hibernation

    Quote Originally Posted by Buck naked View Post
    WARNING! The Dow Jones Industrial Average, as well as all other major stock markets, are nearing their peak and the Great Bear is about to come out of it's 87 year hibernation.

    I don't forecast this with any pleasure as major bear markets affect retail investors the most and that equates to 401(k) and 457 plan holders being dramatically affected over the next 15-20 years.

    I don't use news or politics to forecast this dump, as price charts are not formed and plotted on either. Instead, I use the only long term viable forecasting method labeled as Elliot Wave Principles, a method even the most experienced traders/investors have difficulty understanding and using correctly.

    I'm not advising you on what to do with your portfolios, but I am asking you, how much are you willing to lose before you realize this upcoming major bear market is like no other in your lifetimes.

    What I'm forecasting in general.

    After the All Time High completes, the DJI won't make a new high for AT LEAST 10 years.
    The DJI will nosedive AT LEAST 38%(to $17000) by the first half of the year 2020.
    A Bull Trap will form after the nosedive completes.
    The DJI final low will be somewhere between $13000- $5000.

    Be prepared, protect your investments, and don't fall into the trap of denial. The DJI, from a market psychology point of view, is now in it's delusional phase. The DJI is nearly completing its the long term Cycle Third Wave. The long term Cycle Fourth wave(which is down) will be the greatest in our lifetimes, like no other experienced.

    Please learn to protect investments and retirement accounts.


    I will post when I believe the DJI hits it's peak, which I currently forecast in the range of $27400-$29000. Each stock is different and I have already sold some, but I will sell all my stocks when the DJI hits $27400 as the downside far outweighs the upside.
    Here's my thing with Technical Analysis, Buck... I think it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. All of these analysis tools are used by everybody and everyone comes to pretty much the same conclusions and act accordingly. I think the smart money sticks to the fundamentals, and then adopts a contrarian position when the technicians all jump on the same signal.

    Oh, and the DJI is for old ladies.... stick to the S&P.
    "He who knows, does not speak. He who speaks, does not know." --- Lao Tzu

  9. #29
    we live in a society
    Jesse Booth's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2014
    Location
    https://www.debatepolitics.com
    Last Seen
    11-17-19 @ 06:09 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Libertarian - Left
    Posts
    10,977

    Re: The Great Bear is coming out of it's 87 year hibernation

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hays View Post
    [FONT="]
    [/FONT]

    [FONT="]BusinessMarketWatch
    ‘This is the most prosperous economy the world has ever seen’ says Jamie Dimon - and it’s going to continue

    While many investors may worry about the effects that the U.S.-China trade war, Brexit and Middle East tensions are having on the global economy, Jamie Dimon


    [/FONT]
    Just my personal pet peeve with that guy's statement: we're only the most prosperous economy the world has ever seen if you consider having the biggest numbers the most important mark of prosperity. Our growth rate is currently healthy but substandard, and our strong consumption isn't particularly unprecedented either. Most of what he said was on the money, though.

    Heh. On the money...
    "The state calls its own violence law, nobody bats an eye. But that of the individual is called crime, and everyone loses their minds."
    -meme man Stirner

  10. #30
    Educator

    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Last Seen
    11-15-19 @ 08:45 AM
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    1,185

    Re: The Great Bear is coming out of it's 87 year hibernation

    Update

    According to my Elliott wave Count, I think the DJI Peak/Top was on Friday, November 7, 2019 at $27774.7

    High Probability Sell Target/Reversal Range Area = $27398.7-$28127

    Active Sell Order = $27740.

    REVISED Active StopSell Order = $27578. (In case Sell order is not executed)(This price may change as more candles are pasted revealing more info)

    StopBuy Order = Pending until Sell Order or StopSell Order is executed. (Placed after sell order or stop sell order is executed in case my forecast is incorrect)


    CHART3 ‘DJI Minuette waves’.jpg

    What will it take for my forecast to be incorrect? What will it take to invalidate the ‘Ending Diagonal’ pattern?

    If price surpasses $28127, then the ‘Ending Diagonal’ pattern is invalidated in it’s strictest sense.

    However, as any good trader knows, one must assume to be incorrect and plan/strategize on how to take corrective measures. I will share that strategy if price surpasses $28127.

Page 3 of 6 FirstFirst 12345 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •