Trump country is confident and growing again

From the Economist: Trump country is confident and growing again

HOW STRONG is the American economy? It depends who you ask. Just 37% of Democrats say the economy is in good shape according to the Pew Research Centre, a think-tank. Among Republicans, the figure is twice as high. By one reckoning, this partisan gap in economic sentiment is now at its widest point since at least Ronald Reagan’s presidency. The divide may not just be in people’s heads. Figures from the Bureau of Labour Statistics show that since Donald Trump’s 2016 election, job growth has been slightly higher on average in the parts of the country that voted for Mr Trump than the ones that voted for Hillary Clinton. In 2017, employment in red counties grew by roughly 1.7%, up from 1% in 2016. In blue counties, employment in 2017 grew by 1.6%. A study released today by Indeed, a jobs website, estimates that in the past year and a half, the unemployment rate has fallen 0.9 percentage points for likely Trump supporters and 0.7 percentage points for likely Clinton supporters.

There are three possible explanations for the improving economic fortunes of Trump country. First, some industries that are concentrated in conservative parts of America—most notably mining—are growing faster than the overall economy. Second, the American economy is in the latter stages of an expansion when firms tend to hire more unskilled workers, a trend which may favour Trumpier cities and towns. Finally, confidence among Trump supporters may be providing a psychological boost to consumption and investment. Academic research suggests that consumer sentiment can influence economic activity. A recent poll by Ipsos shows that 66% of Republicans feel more comfortable making a major purchase than they did six months ago. Among Democrats the figure is just 44%.

While jobs may be plentiful in red parts of America for the moment, liberal parts of the country are still better off by many measures. The employment rate in Trump counties, as measured by the share of the total population with a job, is 46% compared with 49% in counties that favoured Mrs Clinton. Jobs in liberal parts of the country also pay higher wages (most likely because the job opportunities in such places are different). Workers in red counties earn an average of about $860 per week; in blue counties the figure is $1,200, or 40% more. Mr Trump has many economic statistics he can tout while on the campaign trail. These might not be the best examples.

Donald Dork can quote all the economic statistics he wants, that does not make him any more able to run the country. The man is sick, sick, sick in the head.

Anyway, the country is mending itself after the worst Great Recession since that of the 1930s and it is no-thanks to him ...

Lafayette said:

Donald Dork can quote all the economic statistics he wants, that does not make him any more able to run the country. The man is sick, sick, sick in the head.[/FONT][/COLOR]

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Donald has 4.2% GDP thanks to being pro business. Obama didn't have it because he was libsocialist anti-business!! Obama had worst recovery FDR!!

Lafayette said:

Anyway, the country is mending itself after the worst Great Recession since that of the 1930s and it is no-thanks to him ...[/FONT][/COLOR]

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Just coincidence economy didn't mend itself under Obama? Maybe being anti business hurts when you want business to grow? Econ 101 for you: A recession is the time its takes the economy to mend itself from the misallocations caused by distiortionary govt intervention. Do you understand?

James972 said:

Just coincidence economy didn't mend itself under Obama? Maybe being anti business hurts when you want business to grow? Econ 101 for you: A recession is the time its takes the economy to mend itself from the misallocations caused by distiortionary govt intervention. Do you understand?

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James972, we do understand. President Obama led us out of the the poor economic legacy that President George W. Bush's administrations left behind.

Refer to https://www.statista.com/statistics/188165/annual-gdp-growth-of-the-united-states-since-1990/

I'm Supposn said:

James972, we do understand. President Obama led us out of the the poor economic legacy that President George W. Bush's administrations left behind.

Refer to https://www.statista.com/statistics/188165/annual-gdp-growth-of-the-united-states-since-1990/

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Obama led us out? OMG! It was the world economic recovery since FDR!!

Barack Obama Is Now The Only President In History To Never Have A Year Of 3% GDP Growth

James972 said:

Just coincidence economy didn't mend itself under Obama? Maybe being anti business hurts when you want business to grow? Econ 101 for you: A recession is the time its takes the economy to mend itself from the misallocations caused by distiortionary govt intervention. Do you understand?

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But it did mend itself. Job growth during Obama's last four years was just as strong as it has been under Trump.

Lafayette said:

From the Economist: Trump country is confident and growing again

HOW STRONG is the American economy? It depends who you ask. Just 37% of Democrats say the economy is in good shape according to the Pew Research Centre, a think-tank. Among Republicans, the figure is twice as high. By one reckoning, this partisan gap in economic sentiment is now at its widest point since at least Ronald Reagan’s presidency. The divide may not just be in people’s heads. Figures from the Bureau of Labour Statistics show that since Donald Trump’s 2016 election, job growth has been slightly higher on average in the parts of the country that voted for Mr Trump than the ones that voted for Hillary Clinton. In 2017, employment in red counties grew by roughly 1.7%, up from 1% in 2016. In blue counties, employment in 2017 grew by 1.6%. A study released today by Indeed, a jobs website, estimates that in the past year and a half, the unemployment rate has fallen 0.9 percentage points for likely Trump supporters and 0.7 percentage points for likely Clinton supporters.

There are three possible explanations for the improving economic fortunes of Trump country. First, some industries that are concentrated in conservative parts of America—most notably mining—are growing faster than the overall economy. Second, the American economy is in the latter stages of an expansion when firms tend to hire more unskilled workers, a trend which may favour Trumpier cities and towns. Finally, confidence among Trump supporters may be providing a psychological boost to consumption and investment. Academic research suggests that consumer sentiment can influence economic activity. A recent poll by Ipsos shows that 66% of Republicans feel more comfortable making a major purchase than they did six months ago. Among Democrats the figure is just 44%.

While jobs may be plentiful in red parts of America for the moment, liberal parts of the country are still better off by many measures. The employment rate in Trump counties, as measured by the share of the total population with a job, is 46% compared with 49% in counties that favoured Mrs Clinton. Jobs in liberal parts of the country also pay higher wages (most likely because the job opportunities in such places are different). Workers in red counties earn an average of about $860 per week; in blue counties the figure is $1,200, or 40% more. Mr Trump has many economic statistics he can tout while on the campaign trail. These might not be the best examples.

Donald Dork can quote all the economic statistics he wants, that does not make him any more able to run the country. The man is sick, sick, sick in the head.

Anyway, the country is mending itself after the worst Great Recession since that of the 1930s and it is no-thanks to him ...

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The economy has little to nothing to do with who is president. But that has never stopped political creatures from claiming that it does.

James972 said:

Obama led us out? OMG! It was the world economic recovery since FDR!!

Barack Obama Is Now The Only President In History To Never Have A Year Of 3% GDP Growth

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Except for Trump, who has also not yet had a 3% GDP growth rate year. I assume you mean a Jan-Dec calendar year.

If you just mean four consecutive quarters, then you are even more wrong - Obama did have a four consecutive quarter span in which our gdp growth rate far exceeded 3% (Trump has yet to accomplish that).

James972 said:

Donald has 4.2% GDP thanks to being pro business. Obama didn't have it because he was libsocialist anti-business!! Obama had worst recovery FDR!!

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Trump has so far had one 4.2% growth rate quarter. Not a year. Obama exceeded that growth rate in an individual quarter several times, so I suppose that Obama's policies must have been even more pro-business than Trump's.

imagep said:

I suppose that Obama's policies must have been even more pro-business than Trump's.

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Obama was anti-business "you didn't build that" socialist. Ever heard of Cuba/Florida?? Socialism makes people poor and has already starved 120 million to death.

imagep said:

Except for Trump, who has also not yet had a 3% GDP growth rate year. I assume you mean a Jan-Dec calendar year.

If you just mean four consecutive quarters, then you are even more wrong - Obama did have a four consecutive quarter span in which our gdp growth rate far exceeded 3% (Trump has yet to accomplish that).

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Anti business Obama has worst economic record in American History. Pro business Trump is starting out with one of the best! 1+1=2
why would a libsocialist even try to debate when he knows libsocialism is anti-business?? USSR/Red China starved 120 million to death they didn't make 120 milion millionaires!!

FreedomFromAll said:

The economy has little to nothing to do with who is president. But that has never stopped political creatures from claiming that it does.

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well sometimes it does like now when we just switched from an anti business socialist president who was the only president in American History to never have a 3% GDP year to a pro business president significantly cutting taxes, regulations and encouraging fair trade deals.

FreedomFromAll said:

The economy has little to nothing to do with who is president. But that has never stopped political creatures from claiming that it does.

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A bad economy will kill a sitting PotUS their second-term.

When an economy is growing well, people are content with their lot in life because they settle for what they have. But economic analysis has shown that they are getting ripped off badly when one looks at the Income Shares derived. As shown here:

Why do they not care that damn few earn so damn much? Because the truth is not being shown to them. Besides, people only get really mad when they cannot have any longer what they had before (in terms of lifestyle) - and that goes for all income-classes. We have a sense of fairness in sports where the rules are well-accepted - but we don't have a proper sense of unfairness when it comes to sharing total income generated by our economy.

It's all about the muney in America, which is sad. Far more important is lifespan (and we live four years less on average than Europeans). We are not sufficiently well educating our kids and we are confronting a monumentally historic change in ages - from the Industrial to the Informational. It will take smarts to do well, and our post-secondary education is too damn costly, so less than half of high-school graduates obtain a post-secondary degree. And the rest settle for lower-paid jobs-to-jobs as best they can ...

Life has only two key aspects: Living well and living long. For a while the US was doing fine, because the rest of the world was doing so badly.

But that has all changed. Especially since the coming out of China, that has robbed lower-paying jobs from the US with much lower salary levels. Our economy has turned viciously from one producing goods to one offering services. The result is that far too many service jobs (like selling BigMacs) obtain very low annual salaries. And we have become primarily a services economy. See here: Distribution of Labor Force by Sector:


As said above, all that matters to most people in the US is making enough muney. First and foremost because this determines their lifestyle. That's OK as a general. But the real challenge is facing the fact that it is unacceptable in any economy that a great many earn very badly their wages, and some do well enough, but finally a tiny group (just 10%) take take the lion's share of Income.

And who-is-where in that graphic pictured above is decided very strongly by educational background. Nothing wrong with that rule - except the fact that we have not understood that the necessary post-secondary education must be just as costly as secondary-schooling for the final outcome in terms of Income Distribution to be fair and equitable - but it isn't ...

Which is how Income Disparity occurs worst in America compared to many world economies ...

Lafayette said:

Which is how Income Disparity occurs worst in America compared to many world economies ...

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so do we correct income disparity by stealing from the rich at gunpoint for crippling welfare for the poor or by encouraging the poor to learn how to earn their own money and contribute to society too!!

Lafayette said:

A bad economy will kill a sitting PotUS their second-term.

When an economy is growing well, people are content with their lot in life because they settle for what they have. But economic analysis has shown that they are getting ripped off badly when one looks at the Income Shares derived. As shown here:

Why do they not care that damn few earn so damn much? Because the truth is not being shown to them. Besides, people only get really mad when they cannot have any longer what they had before (in terms of lifestyle) - and that goes for all income-classes. We have a sense of fairness in sports where the rules are well-accepted - but we don't have a proper sense of unfairness when it comes to sharing total income generated by our economy.

It's all about the muney in America, which is sad. Far more important is lifespan (and we live four years less on average than Europeans). We are not sufficiently well educating our kids and we are confronting a monumentally historic change in ages - from the Industrial to the Informational. It will take smarts to do well, and our post-secondary education is too damn costly, so less than half of high-school graduates obtain a post-secondary degree. And the rest settle for lower-paid jobs-to-jobs as best they can ...

Life has only two key aspects: Living well and living long. For a while the US was doing fine, because the rest of the world was doing so badly.

But that has all changed. Especially since the coming out of China, that has robbed lower-paying jobs from the US with much lower salary levels. Our economy has turned viciously from one producing goods to one offering services. The result is that far too many service jobs (like selling BigMacs) obtain very low annual salaries. And we have become primarily a services economy. See here: Distribution of Labor Force by Sector:

As said above, all that matters to most people in the US is making enough muney. First and foremost because this determines their lifestyle. That's OK as a general. But the real challenge is facing the fact that it is unacceptable in any economy that a great many earn very badly their wages, and some do well enough, but finally a tiny group (just 10%) take take the lion's share of Income.

And who-is-where in that graphic pictured above is decided very strongly by educational background. Nothing wrong with that rule - except the fact that we have not understood that the necessary post-secondary education must be just as costly as secondary-schooling for the final outcome in terms of Income Distribution to be fair and equitable - but it isn't ...

Which is how Income Disparity occurs worst in America compared to many world economies ...

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Perhaps you misunderstood. I said that the economy has little to nothing to do with who is president. I did not say that getting reelected or elected, did not have anything to do with economical conditions. Of course a President can screw up the economy by being an idiot. It takes drastic actions by the president to have lasting effects. But just because Trump is president and acts like (sometimes) that he is for business/economy does not magically make the economy better. Outside of major events the economy takes a longtime to adjust normally.

So while Trump fans think that Trump saved the economy one has to give credit to all involved not just a guy claiming crap.

FreedomFromAll said:

just because Trump is president and acts like (sometimes) that he is for business/economy does not magically make the economy better. Outside of major events the economy takes a longtime to adjust normally.

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sure it does capitalism is about confidence or animal spirits. Obama ( you didn't built that) was an anti business socialist president and had worst economic record in American History. Not one year of 3% growth!. Who has confidence or animal spirits when a nut like that is in charge?? Trump is exactly opposite in attitude, philosophy, and policy!! 1+1=2

James972 said:

sure it does capitalism is about confidence or animal spirits. Obama ( you didn't built that) was an anti business socialist president and had worst economic record in American History. Not one year of 3% growth!. Who has confidence or animal spirits when a nut like that is in charge?? Trump is exactly opposite in attitude, philosophy, and policy!! 1+1=2

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I suppose if you are a Trump supporter you would think that. So you replaced "you didn't built that" with Trumps "I did that!" Sounds pretty much the same to me. Personally I would argue that Americans are not so easily fooled by such rhetoric.

FYI many Americans do not have confidence in Trump at all, in fact many find him to be a danger to our Republic.

FreedomFromAll said:

I suppose if you are a Trump supporter you would think that. So you replaced "you didn't built that" with Trumps "I did that!" Sounds pretty much the same to me. Personally I would argue that Americans are not so easily fooled by such rhetoric.

FYI many Americans do not have confidence in Trump at all, in fact many find him to be a danger to our Republic.

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There's also the point that Obama's "you didn't build that" quote was meant in the context of people having worked collectively to build and support the infrastructure that allows entrepreneurs to build successful businesses. Of course sound byte parrots just like to take the parts that serve their end.

ElChupacabra said:

There's also the point that Obama's "you didn't build that" quote was meant in the context of people having worked collectively to build and support the infrastructure that allows entrepreneurs to build successful businesses. Of course sound byte parrots just like to take the parts that serve their end.

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I did not even bother explaining the context since it was obvious that he never understood it.

James972 said:

... anti business socialist president who was the only president in American History to never have a 3% GDP year...

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Making that claim over and over again doesn't make it true. Can you point to which year it was that Trump had a 3% or higher growth rate?

imagep said:

Making that claim over and over again doesn't make it true. Can you point to which year it was that Trump had a 3% or higher growth rate?

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Anti business socialist ("you didn't built that") Obama had worst economic record in American History!!


Roskam says Obama admin the first to never top 3% in annual GDP ...
https://www.politifact.com/illinois/statements/2017/.../rep-roskam-gdp-growth-obama/
Claim: “The past (Obama) administration was the first administration that never had a whole year of 3 percent growth."
Claimed by: Peter Roskam

ElChupacabra said:

There's also the point that Obama's "you didn't build that" quote was meant....

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in the socialist sense that has killed 120 million so far. Will you stop at 200 million?

FreedomFromAll said:

FYI many Americans do not have confidence in Trump at all, in fact many find him to be a danger to our Republic.

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stock market is at all time high precisely because people have confidence with Trump at helm!!

FreedomFromAll said:

. So you replaced "you didn't built that" with Trumps "I did that!" Sounds pretty much the same to me.

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one is capitalist and one is socialist. Socialism killed 120 million

FreedomFromAll said:

So while Trump fans think that Trump saved the economy one has to give credit to all involved not just a guy claiming crap.

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Trump is single most important person and the second he took over with his pro business attitude and policies, after 8 years of anti business socialism, it is not surprising economy took off!.