The Economist - "Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?"

From here: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

Excerpt:

IF THERE was a defining economic problem for America as it recovered from the financial crisis, it was stagnant wages. In the five years following the end of the recession in June 2009 wages and salaries rose by only 8.7%, while prices increased by 9.5%. In 2014 the median worker’s inflation-adjusted earnings, by one measure, were no higher than they were in 2000. It is commonly said that wage stagnation contributed to an economic anxiety in middle America that carried Donald Trump into the White House.

Yet Mr Trump’s rise seems to have coincided with a turnaround in fortunes for the middle class. In 2015 median household income, adjusted for inflation, rose by 5.2%; in 2016 it was up by another 3.2%. During those two years, poorer households gained more, on average, than richer ones. The latest development—one that will be of particular interest to Mr Trump—is that blue-collar wages have begun to rocket. In the year to the third quarter, wage and salary growth for the likes of factory workers, builders and drivers easily outstripped that for professionals and managers. In some cases, blue-collar pay growth now exceeds 4% (see chart).

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No doubt about it - the fix is "in". And Donald Dork can't take the credit.

The US economy began to fix itself in 2014, well after the Replicants took control of the HoR and stymied all further stimulus-spending in 2010. (So, Barack was left to steer the economic ship with no tailwind.)

Economies do that. Consumers get board with hoarding and saving, so human nature takes the lead. People go out and shop-till-they-drop.

Can it last forever? Nope, but at least another couple of years. At the end of which, growth will once again stagnate and the unemployment rate will inch upward. Not all that much, but nonetheless somewhat.

In such circumstances, the first workers to go are those most easily laid-off at the bottom rungs of the ladder. And those are NOT the ones running Artificial Intelligence machines doing the production work that humans were doing up till 2008.

Which was when the New Era (called "Information Age") finally showed its best and its worst. The latter being massive layoffs that were prompted by the Great Recession. The former being that companies had a damn good reason (recession) to lay-off workers and install massively smart-machines to do the same jobs. Those running the highly complex production configuration from a computer screen are earning damn fine salaries.

What does that mean for Joe/Jane Bloggs looking for a job? It means they'd better go get some new education-credentials rather waiting for the "old-jobs" to come back. Whyzzat?

SERVICES INDUSTRIES

The old jobs are gone for good. We are no longer a predominantly Manufacturing Country. We have become a Services Country. How's that?

Read here: DEFINITION OF THE SERVICE INDUSTRY - excerpt:

The goods-producing sector includes agriculture, forestry, and fishing; mining; construction; and manufacturing. The service-producing sector includes the divisions of (1) transportation, communications, and utilities; (2)wholesale trade; (3) retail trade; (4) finance, insurance, and real estate; (5) public administration; and (6) services. This sixth group—the services division—includes a number of industries

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Some examples cited:
Some agricultural services (including landscaping and horticulture)
Hotels and other places of lodging
Personal services (including dry cleaning, tax preparation, and hair cutting)
Business services (including temporary agencies and business software developers)
Automotive services
Miscellaneous repairs
Motion pictures
Amusements and recreation
Etc., etc., etc.

One benefit of the change is that these jobs tend to be better paying (if one climbs the ladder) than in manufacturing. Time will tell if enough Yanks will go back to school and obtain the necessary credentials.

Or will these jobs go to "furriners" from poorer-countries who nonetheless went to post-secondary schooling to obtain the necessary diplomas because it was free, gratis and for nothing ...

Lafayette said:

From here: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

Excerpt:

No doubt about it - the fix is "in". And Donald Dork can't take the credit.

The US economy began to fix itself in 2014, well after the Replicants took control of the HoR and stymied all further stimulus-spending in 2010. (So, Barack was left to steer the economic ship with no tailwind.)

Economies do that. Consumers get board with hoarding and saving, so human nature takes the lead. People go out and shop-till-they-drop.

Can it last forever? Nope, but at least another couple of years. At the end of which, growth will once again stagnate and the unemployment rate will inch upward. Not all that much, but nonetheless somewhat.

In such circumstances, the first workers to go are those most easily laid-off at the bottom rungs of the ladder. And those are NOT the ones running Artificial Intelligence machines doing the production work that humans were doing up till 2008.

Which was when the New Era (called "Information Age") finally showed its best and its worst. The latter being massive layoffs that were prompted by the Great Recession. The former being that companies had a damn good reason (recession) to lay-off workers and install massively smart-machines to do the same jobs. Those running the highly complex production configuration from a computer screen are earning damn fine salaries.

What does that mean for Joe/Jane Bloggs looking for a job? It means they'd better go get some new education-credentials rather waiting for the "old-jobs" to come back. Whyzzat?

SERVICES INDUSTRIES

The old jobs are gone for good. We are no longer a predominantly Manufacturing Country. We have become a Services Country. How's that?

Read here: DEFINITION OF THE SERVICE INDUSTRY - excerpt:


Some examples cited:
Some agricultural services (including landscaping and horticulture)
Hotels and other places of lodging
Personal services (including dry cleaning, tax preparation, and hair cutting)
Business services (including temporary agencies and business software developers)
Automotive services
Miscellaneous repairs
Motion pictures
Amusements and recreation
Etc., etc., etc.

One benefit of the change is that these jobs tend to be better paying (if one climbs the ladder) than in manufacturing. Time will tell if enough Yanks will go back to school and obtain the necessary credentials.

Or will these jobs go to "furriners" from poorer-countries who nonetheless went to post-secondary schooling to obtain the necessary diplomas because it was free, gratis and for nothing ...

Click to expand...

Trump promised to fix all this. Remember?

If the Stock Market doesn't get control of that monstrous flushing sound, we'll repeat 2008, or worse. It'll be a little tough on wages, but the "too big to fail" banks will get government support/Corporate Welfare Queens.
/

I find it amusing that the amount of people that aren't working more than 30 hrs. isn't commented on much. Employers are doing that to escape health care costs. Not a big deal if get a raise and you're not working 40 hrs.

DaveFagan said:

If the Stock Market doesn't get control of that monstrous flushing sound, we'll repeat 2008, or worse. It'll be a little tough on wages, but the "too big to fail" banks will get government support/Corporate Welfare Queens.
/

Click to expand...

Possible but doubtful that there will be Great Recession Repeat. It was a "special event" brought to Mr&Mrs Joe America by the mortgage-banksters in cahoots with the Federal Reserve at the time.

There were one helluva lotta people with hi-cost mortgages who effectively lost their shirts when the property would no longer resell. Many were in the real-estate market to make-a-quick-buck and not "find a home for the family" at a time when realty prices were skyrocketing. Their property was repossessed and they never recuperated their down-payment.

Of course, the damage was so wide that even those with no or small mortgages were also affected by the massive unemployment level of 10%. The process over two years virtually emptied some large cities of a great many people who moved out to rental accommodations they could afford.

Thank you, Dubya, and thanks also to the Replicant Party. With a record like that, how ever did the American people put faith in Donald Dork?

Who was the consequence of Collective Voting Stoopidity one must suppose combined with the voting manipulation of the Electoral College in the Greatest Democracy on Earth* ...

*Just how long will we, as a people, continue to believe in the Bullshat ... ?

EnigmaO01 said:

I find it amusing that the amount of people that aren't working more than 30 hrs. isn't commented on much. Employers are doing that to escape health care costs. Not a big deal if get a raise and you're not working 40 hrs.

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From the Bureau of Labor Statistics, excerpt:

Working (by Employed Persons) in 2016
• On the days they worked, 83 percent of employed persons did some or all of their work at their workplace and 22 percent did some or all of their work at home. Employed persons spent more time working at the workplace than at home—7.9 hours, compared with 3.1 hours. (See table 6.)
• The share of workers doing some or all of their work at home grew from 19 percent in 2003—the first year the ATUS was conducted—to 22 percent in 2016. In this same period, the average time employed persons spent working at home on days they worked increased by 34 minutes (from 2.6 hours to 3.1 hours). (See table 6.)
• Among workers age 25 and over, those with an advanced degree were more likely to work at home than were persons with lower levels of educational attainment—43 percent of those with
an advanced degree performed some work at home on days worked, compared with 12 percent of
those with a high school diploma. Workers with an advanced degree also were more likely to work on an average day than were those with a high school diploma—73 percent, compared with 67 percent. (See table 6.)
• On the days they worked, employed men worked 56 minutes more than employed women. This difference partly reflects women's greater likelihood of working part time. However, even among full-time workers (those usually working 35 hours or more per week), men worked longer than women—8.4 hours, compared with 7.8 hours

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Of course, the above does not shed much light on those who worked full-time or part-time at home. But it does state that it is a non-negligible 22 percent. Now, I doubt this 22% was ever investigated to find out if they worked more or less than 40 hours a week at home.

And their time OTJ is not reported fully - I suggest - because many are self-employed but perhaps working part- and not full-time contractually for another employer. (Some, of course, work only for themselves.)

Statistics can get hairy ...

Lafayette said:

Possible but doubtful that there will be Great Recession Repeat. It was a "special event" brought to Mr&Mrs Joe America by the mortgage-banksters in cahoots with the Federal Reserve at the time.

There were one helluva lotta people with hi-cost mortgages who effectively lost their shirts when the property would no longer resell. Many were in the real-estate market to make-a-quick-buck and not "find a home for the family" at a time when realty prices were skyrocketing. Their property was repossessed and they never recuperated their down-payment.

Of course, the damage was so wide that even those with no or small mortgages were also affected by the massive unemployment level of 10%. The process over two years virtually emptied some large cities of a great many people who moved out to rental accommodations they could afford.

Thank you, Dubya, and thanks also to the Replicant Party. With a record like that, how ever did the American people put faith in Donald Dork?

Who was the consequence of Collective Voting Stoopidity one must suppose combined with the voting manipulation of the Electoral College in the Greatest Democracy on Earth* ...


*Just how long will we, as a people, continue to believe in the Bullshat ... ?

Click to expand...

To answer with that oft quoted USA political mantra: "Your cannot underestimate the intelligence of the USA electorate."

DaveFagan said:

If the Stock Market doesn't get control of that monstrous flushing sound, we'll repeat 2008, or worse. It'll be a little tough on wages, but the "too big to fail" banks will get government support/Corporate Welfare Queens.
/

Click to expand...

Lafayette said:

Possible but doubtful that there will be Great Recession Repeat. It was a "special event" brought to Mr&Mrs Joe America by the mortgage-banksters in cahoots with the Federal Reserve at the time.

There were one helluva lotta people with hi-cost mortgages who effectively lost their shirts when the property would no longer resell. Many were in the real-estate market to make-a-quick-buck and not "find a home for the family" at a time when realty prices were skyrocketing. Their property was repossessed and they never recuperated their down-payment.

Of course, the damage was so wide that even those with no or small mortgages were also affected by the massive unemployment level of 10%. The process over two years virtually emptied some large cities of a great many people who moved out to rental accommodations they could afford.

Thank you, Dubya, and thanks also to the Replicant Party. With a record like that, how ever did the American people put faith in Donald Dork?

Who was the consequence of Collective Voting Stoopidity one must suppose combined with the voting manipulation of the Electoral College in the Greatest Democracy on Earth* ...

*Just how long will we, as a people, continue to believe in the Bullshat ... ?

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Which President signed the repeal of Glass-Steagall?

Which President made the first move to break down the walls separating banking from investments established in the FDR years?

It would be nice if people understood what actually caused the Financial bubble and what caused it to burst.

Regarding your last question, I was asking it myself as I read your post.

The latest development—one that will be of particular interest to Mr Trump—is that blue-collar wages have begun to rocket.

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Oh, for sure, this is of interest to Trump. After all, this is one of his goals. This is one of the reasons he is working toward increasing manufacturing...working toward moving the US away from a globalist, Wall Street economy toward a US first, Main Street economy.

His efforts are bearing fruit.

DaveFagan said:

If the Stock Market doesn't get control of that monstrous flushing sound, we'll repeat 2008, or worse. It'll be a little tough on wages, but the "too big to fail" banks will get government support/Corporate Welfare Queens.
/

Click to expand...

We're gonna repeat 2008; wait for it.

BULLSHAT

Mycroft said:

Oh, for sure, this is of interest to Trump. After all, this is one of his goals.

His efforts are bearing fruit.

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You hope.

The recovery started all by itself way, way back in 2014 under Obama. Read the stats here from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment to population ratio:


Donald Dork did nothing "to create jobs", except to wail like a child that "he dun it". That's his nature - take the credit for some event, any event, for which he had no decisional responsibility whatsoever.

More bullshat from Donald Dork, the Prince of Bullshat ...

Mycroft said:

This is one of the reasons he is working toward increasing manufacturing...working toward moving the US away from a globalist, Wall Street economy toward a US first, Main Street economy.

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The US is an integral part of the Global Economy that contributes a significant percentage of US jobs. See here - excerpt:

Trade Partnership Worldwide, LLC, updated its periodic estimate of the number of U.S. jobs that depend on trade. We found that U.S. exports and imports of goods and services supported 41 million U.S. jobs in 2014. This means that more than one in every five U.S. jobs is linked to trade. Nearly three times as many jobs were supported by trade in 2014 as in 1992 – before the accelerated wave of trade liberalization that began with the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1994 – when our earlier research found that trade supported 14.5 million jobs, or one in every ten U.S. jobs

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Wake up and smell the coffee ... !

bearpoker said:

Trump promised to fix all this. Remember?

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So did Bush and look what happened to us after that. Trump will kill the golden goose that Obama nurtured just wait. He has bankrupted everything he touches.

DaveFagan said:

To answer with that oft quoted USA political mantra: "Your cannot underestimate the intelligence of the USA electorate."

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Well put.

Sociologists will attribute the disorder to America's craven dependency upon the BoobTube to the exclusion of whatever other merited objective information is available to them.

Because they are too lazy to see the truth, so enamoured are they of television. That is, the childlike razzle-dazzle that amuses them without the slightest bit of substance.

Which is why we as a nation can be manipulated* so very easily ...

*And as an indication of the societal phenomenon we now have "False News". What next?

Lafayette said:

BULLSHAT



You hope.

The recovery started all by itself way, way back in 2014 under Obama. Read the stats here from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment to population ratio:

Donald Dork did nothing "to create jobs", except to wail like a child that "he dun it". That's his nature - take the credit for some event, any event, for which he had no decisional responsibility whatsoever.

More bullshat from Donald Dork, the Prince of Bullshat ...



The US is an integral part of the Global Economy that contributes a significant percentage of US jobs. See here - excerpt:


Wake up and smell the coffee ... !

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The "number of people employed" doesn't have a whole lot to do with the "blue collar wage surge".

The globalists don't want the US to be a manufacturing country. They want us to be a service country...and they want us to be a global market. The manufacturing...well, the globalists want that done elsewhere.

Trump wants the US to be a manufacturing country again. Employment will continue to increase...some...and wages, as they already are starting, will continue to rise. The US will continue to be a market for the world's products, but not at the expense of our own products.

Our GDP will increase at a much higher rate than Obama, with his policies that inhibited US businesses, could ever dream of...let alone manage.

Mycroft said:

The "number of people employed" doesn't have a whole lot to do with the "blue collar wage surge".

The globalists don't want the US to be a manufacturing country. They want us to be a service country...and they want us to be a global market. The manufacturing...well, the globalists want that done elsewhere.

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What do you know about "what they want"?

For the most part, all that most countries want is to trade because it supports employment. They could care less what happens to the US, which is no longer a major manufacturing country. (You are living in the past.)

THe US is no longer the dominant economy that it once was. Both Europe and China also have significant portions of world GDP.

So, enough of the mantra "US Number 1!, US Number 1!, US Number!" - it no longer plays. Because in the past 10/20 years both Europe and China have risen to prominence in terms of GDP.

See here: What Is the World's Largest Economy? - excerpt:

In 2016, China was the world's largest economy for the second year in a row. It produced $21.3 trillion in economic output. The European Union was in second place, generating $19.2 trillion. Together, China and the EU generate 33.9 percent of the world's economic output of $119.4 trillion.

The United States fell to third place, producing $18.6 trillion.

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Mycroft said:

Trump wants the US to be a manufacturing country again. Employment will continue to increase...some...and wages, as they already are starting, will continue to rise.

Our GDP will increase at a much higher rate than Obama, with his policies that inhibited US businesses, could ever dream of...let alone manage.

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Manufacturing is EXACTLY 7.9% of all "goods producing" jobs. See for yourself here: BLS Employment by Major Industry Sector

The Services Sector jobs are at 77%. America has become a Services Economy.

Wakey, wakey - you are stuck in an economic past that no longer exists in the US!

Exactly like Donald Dork ... !

Lafayette said:

What do you know about "what they want"?

For the most part, all that most countries want is to trade because it supports employment. They could care less what happens to the US, which is no longer a major manufacturing country. (You are living in the past.)

THe US is no longer the dominant economy that it once was. Both Europe and China also have significant portions of world GDP.

So, enough of the mantra "US Number 1!, US Number 1!, US Number!" - it no longer plays. Because in the past 10/20 years both Europe and China have risen to prominence in terms of GDP.

See here: What Is the World's Largest Economy? - excerpt:




Manufacturing is EXACTLY 7.9% of all "goods producing" jobs. See for yourself here: BLS Employment by Major Industry Sector

The Services Sector jobs are at 77%. America has become a Services Economy.

Wakey, wakey - you are stuck in an economic past that no longer exists in the US!

Exactly like Donald Dork ... !

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The niche the globalists have place the US into is not where the US will remain.

Lafayette said:

Possible but doubtful that there will be Great Recession Repeat. It was a "special event" brought to Mr&Mrs Joe America by the mortgage-banksters in cahoots with the Federal Reserve at the time.

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As usual, you draw all the wrong conclusions.

There are only seven quarters, 2006(3)-2008(1) at the beginning of the housing market bust, in which there were more homes lost by subprime borrowers than by prime borrowers, although the gap is small as the figure illustrates. Over this time period, which is the focus of much of the previous literature in this area, 39,094 more
subprime than prime borrowers lost their homes. This small difference was completely reversed by the beginning of 2009, as 40,630 more prime borrowers than subprime borrowers lost their homes just in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters of 2008. An additional 656,003 more prime than subprime borrowers lost their homes from 2009(1)-2012(3), so that twice as many prime borrowers lost their homes than did subprime borrowers over our full sample period.

http://www.nber.org/papers/w21261.pdf

The number of full-time employed Americans was 121,042,000 in December 2007, declining to 116,422,000 in December 2008, and then declining further to 109,875,000 in December 2009.

It was the loss of jobs that triggered the massive defaults on mortgages, as household income declined and wage earners were unable to find employment to restore household income to previous levels. The job losses were caused by a reallocation of Capital outside the US to other foreign States, mainly China.

Severe recessions will occur again, when Capital is reallocated to other emerging markets, such as India, Central Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

GOT IT ALL WRONG, HAVE I?

Mircea said:

As usual, you draw all the wrong conclusions.

There are only seven quarters, 2006(3)-2008(1) at the beginning of the housing market bust, in which there were more homes lost by subprime borrowers than by prime borrowers, although the gap is small as the figure illustrates. Over this time period, which is the focus of much of the previous literature in this area, 39,094 more subprime than prime borrowers lost their homes. This small difference was completely reversed by the beginning of 2009, as 40,630 more prime borrowers than subprime borrowers lost their homes just in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters of 2008.

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Blah, blah, blah.

It is not called the Great Recession for nothing. And the only statistical consequence in a recession that matters is unemployment level.

Which at the time looked like this (from BLS here):

Some facts:
*The Great Recession, prompted by a recessionary period lasting from 2008/10, did not happen and is a figment of my imagination?
*Obama, upon entering office in 2009 the recession gifted to him by a Replicant Administration, need not have launched ARRA-spending (in January, 2009) that spiked the unemployment rate at 10% with close to $830B of government spending?
*And the Replicants - having obtained control of the HofR in 2010 - did NOT refuse all further stimulus-spending; which is why it took America five longgg years (2010-2015) to get back to 5% unemployment?
*Because America was not creating jobs throughout that period of time, as seen here (again from the BLS, the Employment-to-population Ratio)?

All that history above was a Replicant machination to keep unemployment high in order for Obama do lose reelection in 2011. (Didn't work did it - but imagine the cost in anguish to the American people that had to endure high unemployment levels until 2015 when America did start finally creating jobs - three years before Donald Dork was elected.)

Got it all wrong, all wrong, all wrong - have I ... ?

Mycroft said:

The niche the globalists have place the US into is not where the US will remain.

Click to expand...

See that in a Hollywood movie somewhere? There is "no niche" and there are no "Dr No Globalists" trying to manipulate the world.

It is the way a capitalist system works today when it is in the hands of people who have no higher authority. So, they move their money around as they see fit to maximize its returns. Without the slightest concern for ramifications. They feel like Masters of the Universe.

It seems obvious that we need an International Law regarding taxation. (Aka a "FATCA" for all nations.) After all, if individuals will invest in projects/stocks/bonds and expect a return regardless of where earned, then they should also expect that they must pay a tax on their gains wherever earned.

That is going to be one helluva program to establish and run worldwide. But, if we never start, it will never be done.

Whoever makes a profit from bringing products/services to market knows that their revenue from that endeavour will be taxed. As well as whatever investments they make employing those returns made inside the borders of that country.

Why should any any one think that they have a right to "escape" taxation by investing in countries with no or little taxation? Simply because it is "their" money?

Nope, that is not sufficient reason. The origin of those funds (now someone's "riches") were sourced from a market-economy in which we all participate. And what is their relation to taxation?

Taxation is necessary to assure that any market-economy functions fairly and legally in a modern economy. Markets must be fair and equitable. Money earned by working or investing are subject to taxation, the revenues of which are employed to safeguard the economy and oversee uniform fairness and legality.

Escaping taxation by living in one's country of birth but investing funds in another country (and not declaring the income earned) is easily defined as "escaping taxation" that would have been government-revenue had the investments remained and been taxed properly ...

jet57 said:

We're gonna repeat 2008; wait for it.

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We're overdue for a recession, but this time it'll be worse. We don't have the same tools in our toolkit anymore.

We haven't raised interest rates enough to resort to ZIRP or quantitative easing again.

Lafayette said:

See that in a Hollywood movie somewhere? There is "no niche" and there are no "Dr No Globalists" trying to manipulate the world.

It is the way a capitalist system works today when it is in the hands of people who have no higher authority. So, they move their money around as they see fit to maximize its returns. Without the slightest concern for ramifications. They feel like Masters of the Universe.

It seems obvious that we need an International Law regarding taxation. (Aka a "FATCA" for all nations.) After all, if individuals will invest in projects/stocks/bonds and expect a return regardless of where earned, then they should also expect that they must pay a tax on their gains wherever earned.

That is going to be one helluva program to establish and run worldwide. But, if we never start, it will never be done.

Whoever makes a profit from bringing products/services to market knows that their revenue from that endeavour will be taxed. As well as whatever investments they make employing those returns made inside the borders of that country.

Why should any any one think that they have a right to "escape" taxation by investing in countries with no or little taxation? Simply because it is "their" money?

Nope, that is not sufficient reason. The origin of those funds (now someone's "riches") were sourced from a market-economy in which we all participate. And what is their relation to taxation?

Taxation is necessary to assure that any market-economy functions fairly and legally in a modern economy. Markets must be fair and equitable. Money earned by working or investing are subject to taxation, the revenues of which are employed to safeguard the economy and oversee uniform fairness and legality.

Escaping taxation by living in one's country of birth but investing funds in another country (and not declaring the income earned) is easily defined as "escaping taxation" that would have been government-revenue had the investments remained and been taxed properly ...

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"International Law regarding taxation" LOL!!

Nice dream. Not reality.

So it goes...

Spartacus FPV said:

We're overdue for a recession, but this time it'll be worse. We don't have the same tools in our toolkit anymore.

We haven't raised interest rates enough to resort to ZIRP or quantitative easing again.

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Yeah, this whole hyper growth thing is just not right; somethin's funny about it. There's a whole bunch of building going on that wasn't happening before and it takes time for money to be released; it's the very same thing that was going on before 2008.

Spartacus FPV said:

We're overdue for a recession, but this time it'll be worse.

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No, we're not.

The longest economic expansion was 120 months.

We're currently in month 103 of the current expansion.

Lafayette said:

GOT IT ALL WRONG, HAVE I?



Blah, blah, blah.

It is not called the Great Recession for nothing. And the only statistical consequence in a recession that matters is unemployment level.

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You failed to address any of the facts I presented refuting your claim that the recession was caused by "mortgage-banksters in cahoots with the Federal Reserve."

Do try to stay on point.

It doesn't really matter if Trump isn't responsible for this. It was pretty obvious that whoever came into office was going to get a boost from an already recovering economy. It will play in Trump's favor regardless.