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Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

Lafayette

Lafayette

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From the Economist: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

Excerpt:
IF THERE was a defining economic problem for America as it recovered from the financial crisis, it was stagnant wages. In the five years following the end of the recession in June 2009 wages and salaries rose by only 8.7%, while prices increased by 9.5%. In 2014 the median worker’s inflation-adjusted earnings, by one measure, were no higher than they were in 2000. It is commonly said that wage stagnation contributed to an economic anxiety in middle America that carried Donald Trump into the White House.

Yet Mr Trump’s rise seems to have coincided with a turnaround in fortunes for the middle class. In 2015 median household income, adjusted for inflation, rose by 5.2%; in 2016 it was up by another 3.2%. During those two years, poorer households gained more, on average, than richer ones. The latest development—one that will be of particular interest to Mr Trump—is that blue-collar wages have begun to rocket. In the year to the third quarter, wage and salary growth for the likes of factory workers, builders and drivers easily outstripped that for professionals and managers. In some cases, blue-collar pay growth now exceeds 4% (see chart).

Has Mr Trump kept his promise to revive American manufacturing, mining and the like? A more probable explanation is that he came to office just as America began to run out of willing workers to fill all of its job vacancies. As unemployment has fallen, from over 6% in mid-2014 to 4.1% today, wage growth has gradually picked up.
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Since 2014 employment in the US had started growing again. (See the BLS Employment to population Ratio chart here.) So, no credit to Donald Dork who lucked out on an election and will try to take the credit for the minor-miracle.

More to the point is the fact that those jobs lost aren't coming back. They were likely base-level employment that once gone will never come back because the work will have been automated. So, where are the new jobs coming from if not the shop-floor?

More than likely they are at an upper-level of skill-sets, for which it always helps to have a post-secondary degree* ...

* Which, I might add, had Hillary got elected would be available free, gratis and for nothing for all families below a wage of $100K (or $50K per spouse.)
 
Lafayette said:
From the Economist: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

Excerpt:


Since 2014 employment in the US had started growing again. (See the BLS Employment to population Ratio chart here.) So, no credit to Donald Dork who lucked out on an election and will try to take the credit for the minor-miracle.

More to the point is the fact that those jobs lost aren't coming back. They were likely base-level employment that once gone will never come back because the work will have been automated. So, where are the new jobs coming from if not the shop-floor?

More than likely they are at an upper-level of skill-sets, for which it always helps to have a post-secondary degree* ...

* Which, I might add, had Hillary got elected would be available free, gratis and for nothing for all families below a wage of $100K (or $50K per spouse.)
Click to expand...

Yes, I had read that article and must say that it does not surprise me very much. We are in an upswing of unusual length and the number of labor would usually be expected to start to climb now. Wages are often a lagging indicator of expansion and will sometimes be the harbinger of less prosperous times. In any event the fall off of immigration in the lower levels of qualifications has increased competition for it driving up its price yet more.

As to tertiary education you might want to be more precise about the meaning and all that. The US has comparatively high levels compared with Germany or France and relatively low ones if you look at Canada. Both of us know that one number doesn't mean much, but in Germany education is mostly free and in the USA it costs something. All sorts of differences pop up, when you look closely enough and one finds that sometime the truth is quite different than the populist tale of free this and free that folks tell for votes.
 
joG said:
Yes, I had read that article and must say that it does not surprise me very much. We are in an upswing of unusual length and the number of labor would usually be expected to start to climb now. Wages are often a lagging indicator of expansion and will sometimes be the harbinger of less prosperous times. In any event the fall off of immigration in the lower levels of qualifications has increased competition for it driving up its price yet more.

As to tertiary education you might want to be more precise about the meaning and all that. The US has comparatively high levels compared with Germany or France and relatively low ones if you look at Canada. Both of us know that one number doesn't mean much, but in Germany education is mostly free and in the USA it costs something. All sorts of differences pop up, when you look closely enough and one finds that sometime the truth is quite different than the populist tale of free this and free that folks tell for votes.
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This is as always supply vs demand. There are jobs that need to be filled. As they go unfilled the wages for those jobs climb till they are accepted by people.
 
joG said:
... but in Germany education is mostly free and in the USA it costs something. All sorts of differences pop up, when you look closely enough and one finds that sometime the truth is quite different than the populist tale of free this and free that folks tell for votes..
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Throughout the European Union, tertiary education is like secondary education. It nearly free, gratis, and for nothing.

Which is the reason that Europe, since the devastation of WW2, has been able to play catch-up as regards the percentage of its population with a tertiary education degree.
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ludin said:
This is as always supply vs demand. There are jobs that need to be filled. As they go unfilled the wages for those jobs climb till they are accepted by people.
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I beg to do differ. It aint so easy as that.

The facts are:
*We've lost a lot of jobs to automation in manufacturing industries, and they aint comin' back. Those jobs have been usurped by China since the 1990s.
*We are not graduating enough tertiary-level students to fill the jobs that the Information Age requires. (The Industrial Age is well behind us.)
*And we are not graduating enough post-secondary degree students because the cost is so effing high.
*Which means that Bernie was right (whilst being Left-of-center). We must have free tertiary-education for all-comers. Provided by state-schools but the costs subsidized by the Federal government ...

NB: Not all state schools can offer courses in all subjects. So, some will specialize in those specific-subjects where out-of-state students can apply. Which is why the program must be supported by Federal subventions.
 
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Lafayette said:
I beg to do differ. It aint so easy as that.

The facts are:
*We've lost a lot of jobs to automation in manufacturing industries, and they aint comin' back. Those jobs have been usurped by China since the 1990s.
*We are not graduating enough tertiary-level students to fill the jobs that the Information Age requires. (The Industrial Age is well behind us.)
*And we are not graduating enough post-secondary degree students because the cost is so effing high.
*Which means that Bernie was right (whilst being Left-of-center). We must have free tertiary-education for all-comers. Provided by state-schools but the costs subsidized by the Federal government ...

NB: Not all state schools can offer courses in all subjects. So, some will specialize in those specific-subjects where out-of-state students can apply. Which is why the program must be supported by Federal subventions.
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The fact is exactly that. Supply and demand always are major factors in anything.
We will always have need for industry jobs. There will always be market shifts in jobs.
Wagon repair guys became mechanics. Just the way it goes. Even automated factories break down and need people to fix and run them.
 
Lafayette said:
I beg to do differ. It aint so easy as that.

The facts are:
*We've lost a lot of jobs to automation in manufacturing industries, and they aint comin' back. Those jobs have been usurped by China since the 1990s.
*We are not graduating enough tertiary-level students to fill the jobs that the Information Age requires. (The Industrial Age is well behind us.)
*And we are not graduating enough post-secondary degree students because the cost is so effing high.
*Which means that Bernie was right (whilst being Left-of-center). We must have free tertiary-education for all-comers. Provided by state-schools but the costs subsidized by the Federal government ...

NB: Not all state schools can offer courses in all subjects. So, some will specialize in those specific-subjects where out-of-state students can apply. Which is why the program must be supported by Federal subventions.
Click to expand...

If college is free, who is going to pay the teachers? Right now, the California US system has a payroll subsidized by grad students most of whom are on grants. It's one big Ponzi scheme.

An assistant professor earns over $110K a year. A full professor, much more than that. So don't expect the taxpayers to replace up the additional $22 billion in operating revenue.

And it's my guess that the very people that feel higher education should be free are also against tax cuts to grow the economy to create the jobs needed to pay these taxes!

The argument is the same for Junior Colleges. Who will pick up the tab? Most of it is publically funded anyway (in California).
 
Lafayette said:
From the Economist: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

Excerpt:


Since 2014 employment in the US had started growing again. (See the BLS Employment to population Ratio chart here.) So, no credit to Donald Dork who lucked out on an election and will try to take the credit for the minor-miracle.

More to the point is the fact that those jobs lost aren't coming back. They were likely base-level employment that once gone will never come back because the work will have been automated. So, where are the new jobs coming from if not the shop-floor?

More than likely they are at an upper-level of skill-sets, for which it always helps to have a post-secondary degree* ...

* Which, I might add, had Hillary got elected would be available free, gratis and for nothing for all families below a wage of $100K (or $50K per spouse.)
Click to expand...

This has very little to do with the President and a lot to do with the several years of a more business friendly Congress. It's the result of what happens when business have more money to put into improving their business model and that includes increasing wages to attract better people. Give businesses even more ability to improve and, over time, you will see more of the same.
 
Lafayette said:
I beg to do differ. It aint so easy as that.

The facts are:
*We've lost a lot of jobs to automation in manufacturing industries, and they aint comin' back. Those jobs have been usurped by China since the 1990s.
*We are not graduating enough tertiary-level students to fill the jobs that the Information Age requires. (The Industrial Age is well behind us.)
*And we are not graduating enough post-secondary degree students because the cost is so effing high.
*Which means that Bernie was right (whilst being Left-of-center). We must have free tertiary-education for all-comers. Provided by state-schools but the costs subsidized by the Federal government ...

NB: Not all state schools can offer courses in all subjects. So, some will specialize in those specific-subjects where out-of-state students can apply. Which is why the program must be supported by Federal subventions.
Click to expand...

Wonder why then employment is 96% and we can afford 150 million smart phone super computers?? if we want even better wages we can follow Trump and eliminate corporate taxes so our corporations don't move out and we can ship 30 million illegals home who take our jobs and bid down our wages. Do you understand?
 
Blue collar wages are surging...can it last?

Yes. In fact, it'll keep surging as Trump moves the economy away from Wall Street and toward Main Street.
 
Mycroft said:
Blue collar wages are surging...can it last?

Yes. In fact, it'll keep surging as Trump moves the economy away from Wall Street and toward Main Street.
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and as he builds the wall!!! How odd the caring Democrats want 30 million illegals here to take our jobs and bid down our wages?
 
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