First GDP month entirely under Trump...falling hard

ashurbanipal said:

I guess I'm a bit flabbergasted to see three paragraphs called "long winded..."



I made some allowance for that kind of thing in my earlier post; my point is that such examples are pretty rare. In an economy that has, for some time, seen similar good news to that which Trump supporters were cheering, it doesn't make much sense that suddenly that good news is due to Trump.

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Well, I guess you could familiarize yourself with principles of business and business planning to gain a greater perspective on why anticipated events could impact plans and investments.

Lafayette said:

Look, enough of the propaganda.

Let's review Actual Economic History since Dubya's recession handed to Obama on a platter in 2008.

From there, in his first year in office, Obama and a Dem-Congress passed the ARRA-bill that spent $830B that successfully stopped an exploding unemployment rate at 10%. See here.

Then, when he wanted even more spending to bring the unemployment rate further down (in 2010), we jerks voted the Replicants into charge of the HofR. Who promptly refused any further stimulus-spending! (Under the silly guise of "Austerity Spending" because of America's "Debt Overhang".)

What happened? This (again from the BLS), the Employment-to-population Ratio:

The economy created NO JOBS from 2010 to 2014 - four longgggg years!

Wasn't that kinda stoopid? As an economics professor, I kinda-sorta qualify that as Stoopid Thinking To Spite a PotUS. (In hopes that you can sink him in the next election with high unemployment. But that ploy didn't work in 2012, did it?)

But explain that history to those who couldn't find jobs for four years ...

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If the idea is to cut out the propaganda, you could start with your post.

What was the employment rate during the bulk of "Dubya's" administration?

Your propaganda isn't going to fly, so I'm not sure why you insist on posting it.

Lafayette said:

This is the same stoopid citation that is made by the Replicant crowd on this forum.

It's always the "draconian limites on business activities" that is reason for a down-turn or a slow up-turn.

it would help if you all took an economics course before commenting in an economics forum.

Unemployment is presently down to around 4.8% from an all-time high of 10% (spiked by Obama as soon as he came into office).

Just what sort of performance do you want from the economy? Miracles. Well, miracles really DON'T HAPPEN in economics. For the US to get the Employment-to-population Ratio back up to where it was in 2008 - see here - it is going to take one helluva lotta spending (and not just on Defense).

But on Education, because the jobs are NOT COMING out of Manufacturing but from the Services Industries. It is highly regrettable that our kids are not getting the sorts of qualifications necessary for Service Industry jobs. Namely, vocational and (at least) a 2-year degree.

And why is that happening. Because the cost of a postsecondary education is TOO DAMN EXPENSIVE. Those graduating find themselves with a $35K debt to repay ... !!!

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More propaganda.

And who is demonstrating "stoopid" here? Certainly your post provides all the necessary evidence.

ocean515 said:

Your propaganda isn't going to fly, so I'm not sure why you insist on posting it.

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Pure fecal matter.

Dubya is solely responsible for the Great Recession due to his administration's lack of authority in the SubPrime Mess that caused the Great Recession.

What planet do you live on ... ?

Lafayette said:

Pure fecal matter.

Dubya is solely responsible for the Great Recession due to his administration's lack of authority in the SubPrime Mess that caused the Great Recession.

What planet do you live on ... ?

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By running from the question I asked, you confirmed your ranking. Not necessary, but certainly telling.

ocean515 said:

Well, I guess you could familiarize yourself with principles of business and business planning to gain a greater perspective on why anticipated events could impact plans and investments.

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I used to be senior VP of Operations at a mid-cap grocery distribution company, and then successfully ran an import business for a few years before walking away from it all. I worked with some morons, that's for sure, but no one stupid enough to change policies on a dime based on who had just been elected. In relationship with government, you want everything in writing in a form you can enforce (either that, or you want the money up front). The notion that a business (especially businesses en masse) would significantly alter what they're doing on the rumor of a promise is not something I ever found to be true.

iguanaman said:

I think that Trump and his GOP friends are going to put us into a recession. It is what business wants....wages are rising and they can't have that. If they get their BAT tax watch out.

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I kinda sorta doubt that outcome.

As you may have seen on this forum-section, I posted the Employment-to-population Ratio that has been improving since the Obama-years of 2014. So, there are people finding jobs and getting paid - though not quite as much as before perhaps.

Nonetheless, the very fact that the ratio expanded in 2000 to 64.5% means that (quite likely) we can do that again - that is, up from the present 60%. But 2014 is not 2000. Fourteen years ago we were already shedding shop-floor employment as the jobs were being shipped to China. That phenomenon started when in 1991 the Bamboo Curtain came crashing down. By 2000, it was hitting American workers very hard. By 2008, the Great Recession put an end to much hope of expanding shop-floor jobs.

That cycle may be coming to an end. Because China is itself suffering from employment-competition in the south-east Asia economies (Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, etc.).

I mean this: For the US to get back up to 64% in the E-to-P Ratio mentioned above, it can't be on the shop-floor that the improvement will incur. Those jobs are being further menaced by robotic machines.

So, what's a person to do who's worked all their life employed in manufacturing???

My suggestion. Get Back to Schooling. Obtain a postsecondary degree in either a vocational subject (cooking, construction, etc.) or a two-year degree (accounting, nursing, etc.)

Now do you see why Hillary borrowed Bernie's idea to have the Dept. of Education finance a postsecondary degree for all families with less than a $100K of income (which is two parents earning at least $50K each)?

It was an idea that was a perfect solution for the challenge facing America' unemployed today!!!!

But, no, we voted for Donald Dork who promised us Jobs, Jobs, Jobs galore - but where? To the miners of West Virginia who know in the heart-'n-souls that just aint gonna happin? (Coal usage is being usurped by photo-voltaic electricity generation.)

Moreover, without the proper training most cannot even pretend to qualify for the jobs going today. And the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in their analysis of job-requirements are pointing the way. From here:

The job openings data tell us about the unmet demand for workers; the hires and separations data provide information about the flow of labor. Industries with high turnover and low job openings, such as construction, are easily able to hire the workers they need.

But industries with high turnover and high job openings, such as professional and business services, still have open jobs at the end of the month despite their hiring efforts during the month. Those industries with consistently moderate turnover and high unmet demand for labor, such as health care, may be a good option for career changers and students selecting a major, and officials who develop training programs and guide people into them can benefit from knowing which industries these are.

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And finally, this tidbit of information from the BLS: Occupations with the most job growth.

How to read that page linked above:
*Look at the percentages posted in the column "Change 2014-24".
*Then select those job-classifications showing at least a 20% growth.
*Then get the educational credentials necessary for that job-classification.
*Keep in mind that another criteria is also "Income", so give the higher-income jobs preference if you think you can obtain the qualifications necessary thereto!

ocean515 said:

By running from the question I asked, you confirmed your ranking. Not necessary, but certainly telling.

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Piffle 'n drivel.

There's an Ignore option for the most redundantly boring posters ...

DA60 said:

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1


The Atlanta Fed GDP Now numbers - which have been remarkably accurate in their relatively short history - are now putting the GDP at only 1.3%.

Not a good sign.


Thoughts?


Once again, I have zero political loyalty to either a party or a movement.

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lol@Trumpettes who whined about Obama's "poor" GDP growth rate.


****ing idiots.

calamity said:

lol@Trumpettes who whined about Obama's "poor" GDP growth rate. ****ing idiots.

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What makes you think GDP growth-rate is the ONLY criteria for judging a presidency.

Especially a presidency that was born at the inception of the Great Recession, handed to Obama on a Silver Platter by one of the worst presidents of our era.

The Great Recession was the second most important economic debacle in America since the 1930s. Why does it seem that you expected Obama to work-miracles when the GOP was controlling the budget in the HofR whilst preaching "Austerity Budgeting"?

In fact, the hideousness of the Replicant position was that it actually WANTED high-unemployment from 2011 onward in order to prepare the way for Obama's defeat in 2012. This is the level of callousness inbred in the Replicants to maintain the status-quo of preferential Upper-income Taxation thus allowing lightly-taxed Income to move up to Wealth for their constituents ...

Lafayette said:

What makes you think GDP growth-rate is the ONLY criteria for judging a presidency.

Especially a presidency that was born at the inception of the Great Recession, handed to Obama on a Silver Platter by one of the worst presidents of our era.

The Great Recession was the second most important economic debacle in America since the 1930s. Why does it seem that you expected Obama to work-miracles when the GOP was controlling the budget in the HofR whilst preaching "Austerity Budgeting"?

In fact, the hideousness of the Replicant position was that it actually WANTED high-unemployment from 2011 onward in order to prepare the way for Obama's defeat in 2012. This is the level of callousness inbred in the Replicants to maintain the status-quo of preferential Upper-income Taxation thus allowing lightly-taxed Income to move up to Wealth for their constituents ...

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Trump is much more of a disaster than just a low GDP growth would indicate. That is for sure.

Lafayette said:

From there, in his first year in office, Obama and a Dem-Congress passed the ARRA-bill that spent $830B that successfully stopped an exploding unemployment rate at 10%. See here.

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What a load of nonsense.

A) The job losses had already turned around by the time ARRA was passed.

B) Where is your link to UNBIASED, factual proof that the ARRA 'successfully stopped an exploding unemployment rate at 10%' and that market forces would not have stopped it all on their own?
And remember - you made a matter-of-fact statement. So then, you must have factual proof to back it up or your statement is pure nonsense.

Lafayette said:

As an economics professor, I kinda-sorta qualify that as Stoopid Thinking To Spite a PotUS.

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Ohhhhh....that explains why you a) sound SO incredibly arrogant and condescending

and b) why - on macroeconomic matters - you are so incredibly ignorant.

Some of the most ignorant people on macroeconomics I have ever heard/met are/were economics prof's.

Especially the Keynesian one's...they were arrogant and staggeringly ignorant about macroeconomics...kinda like the Federal Reserve.


I despise the jobs arrogant, Keynesian Prof's do.

All they do is fill young people's heads with keynesian/Krugmanite garbage that was shown to be utterly nonsensical in the 1930's.

Of course, these prof's take the entire wrong message from that time and actually hold it up as proof of the theory.

What a joke.


And I ask them the same thing every time...prove to me using ONLY links to unbiased, facts/data that the great Depression would not have ended FAR quicker and cost taxpayers far less had the government just let it work itself out (like it had VERY successfully during the 1920-21 Depression)?

And - of course - they can never prove it.

But then these ignoramuses still go on saying that 'America was saved by the New Deal'...or some such tripe.


And, once again, I have ZERO loyalty to any political movement or party.


NOTE to young people thinking of going to college for economics...DON"T.

It is a complete and total waste of time.

Start a business - about anything you like (only with money you can afford to lose) - and you will learn far more in six months doing that than you will sitting in some classroom for 4 years listening to ignorant prof's like Lafe-what's-his-name spewing forth his 'theories' while you rack up huge student debts in the process.

Lafayette said:

This is the same stoopid citation that is made by the Replicant crowd on this forum.

It's always the "draconian limites on business activities" that is reason for a down-turn or a slow up-turn.

it would help if you all took an economics course before commenting in an economics forum.

Unemployment is presently down to around 4.8% from an all-time high of 10% (spiked by Obama as soon as he came into office).

Just what sort of performance do you want from the economy? Miracles. Well, miracles really DON'T HAPPEN in economics. For the US to get the Employment-to-population Ratio back up to where it was in 2008 - see here - it is going to take one helluva lotta spending (and not just on Defense).

But on Education, because the jobs are NOT COMING out of Manufacturing but from the Services Industries. It is highly regrettable that our kids are not getting the sorts of qualifications necessary for Service Industry jobs. Namely, vocational and (at least) a 2-year degree.

And why is that happening. Because the cost of a postsecondary education is TOO DAMN EXPENSIVE. Those graduating find themselves with a $35K debt to repay ... !!!

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You want to know what middle class Americans will end up with from Keynesian/Krugmanite economics when it is all said and done?




The Fed will make sure the rich get much richer.

The poor will be taken care of by huge social programs.

And the middle class will have to pay for it all.


Don't say I did not warn you.


Have a nice day.

Lafayette said:

Pure fecal matter.

Dubya is solely responsible for the Great Recession due to his administration's lack of authority in the SubPrime Mess that caused the Great Recession.

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never met a liberal easier to trip up than Layfayette:

if what you say above is true why did Barney take responsibility???



Barney Frank: "I hope by next year we'll have abolished Fanny Freddie... it was a great mistake to push lower income people into homes they couldn't afford and couldn't really handle once they had it"



"These two entities—Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—are not facing any kind of financial crisis," said Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts, the ranking Democrat on the Financial Services Committee. "The more people exaggerate these problems, the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing."-Barney Frank




then why did Barney Frank take responsibility for the liberal policies that caused subprime mess??? ?????????

ashurbanipal said:

I used to be senior VP of Operations at a mid-cap grocery distribution company, and then successfully ran an import business for a few years before walking away from it all. I worked with some morons, that's for sure, but no one stupid enough to change policies on a dime based on who had just been elected. In relationship with government, you want everything in writing in a form you can enforce (either that, or you want the money up front). The notion that a business (especially businesses en masse) would significantly alter what they're doing on the rumor of a promise is not something I ever found to be true.

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Where did you get the idea that anyone has changed policies on a dime? As a VP of operations, how did you plan for the year ahead, as well as the next 5 years? What criteria did you use? How did you plan for expansion, contraction, operational improvements?

Certainly, any larger operation includes business environment as a consideration in order to project and plan. This would include planning for capital expenditures required to meet anticipated demand, or any of the myriad of variables that are discussed when putting annual budgets together. I would assume you participated in such activities in your position as VP of Operations.

I've owned what some might consider a large business, with hundreds of employees. The considerations I have mentioned when commonly used in planning, and favorable conditions would always be responded to. I can only go by my experience in these matters.

Lafayette said:

Piffle 'n drivel.

There's an Ignore option for the most redundantly boring posters ...

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Well then, I would suggest you avail yourself of it and spare us both the pain and suffering.

DA60 said:

You want to know what middle class Americans will end up with from Keynesian/Krugmanite economics when it is all said and done? The Fed will make sure the rich get much richer.

The poor will be taken care of by huge social programs.And the middle class will have to pay for it all.Don't say I did not warn you.

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You are incorrigible - not an ounce of cogency in your response.

Piffle 'n drivel, drivel 'n piffle ...

ocean515 said:

I've owned what some might consider a large business, with hundreds of employees. The considerations I have mentioned when commonly used in planning, and favorable conditions would always be responded to. I can only go by my experience in these matters.

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Planning in general is a "comfort tool" of Top Management. It makesthem think they've thought of everything - and "planned for it".

So, they believe it as if it were liturgy and go crashing into a wall. What happened?

The "unplanned" happened.

A plan - and I've done hundreds - is just a comfort mechanism. It assumes that "all possible events have been considered". When, in fact, it is the un-predetermined event that sinks a company. why?

Because when the event occurs, it is dismissed as "one off" or "insignificant", when in fact it is quite the opposite.

Companies (that is, corporate management) generally do not know how to "think outside the box" - because that is from where the knockout punch is coming ...

Since Valentine's Day, the DOW has done almost nothing.

It's actually down a bit.

And with Trump's Presidential priorities a complete mess while he plays Neocon over in Syria...I doubt it will get much better anytime soon unless the Fed steps in.

His domestic agenda (from a financial standpoint) is going completely off the rails.

He flip flops on a daily basis now and cannot get anything of any notable financial/fiscal significance through Congress.

His presidency is a mess.


On the positive side....he is doing wonders for my precious metals.

PM's love instability...and Trumpboy is providing that in spades.

After an initial plummet when the markets (foolishly) thought Trump might actually do what he promised. Since about Christmas, reality has set in and gold alone has risen over 13% since that time.


Once again, I have ZERO loyalty to any political party or movement.

Lafayette said:

Planning in general is a "comfort tool" of Top Management. It makesthem think they've thought of everything - and "planned for it".

So, they believe it as if it were liturgy and go crashing into a wall. What happened?

The "unplanned" happened.

A plan - and I've done hundreds - is just a comfort mechanism. It assumes that "all possible events have been considered". When, in fact, it is the un-predetermined event that sinks a company. why?

Because when the event occurs, it is dismissed as "one off" or "insignificant", when in fact it is quite the opposite.

Companies (that is, corporate management) generally do not know how to "think outside the box" - because that is from where the knockout punch is coming ...

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Actually, its all they teach in MBA schools but predicting the future is often mostly a matter of luck so we never know who is lucky and who thought outside the box.

DA60 said:

After an initial plummet when the markets (foolishly) thought Trump might actually do what he promised. .

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???? He is doing what he promised: wall, repeal, tax cuts , SCOTUS, Korea, Syria, and its only been 100 days.

Lafayette said:

Planning in general is a "comfort tool" of Top Management. It makesthem think they've thought of everything - and "planned for it".

So, they believe it as if it were liturgy and go crashing into a wall. What happened?

The "unplanned" happened.

A plan - and I've done hundreds - is just a comfort mechanism. It assumes that "all possible events have been considered". When, in fact, it is the un-predetermined event that sinks a company. why?

Because when the event occurs, it is dismissed as "one off" or "insignificant", when in fact it is quite the opposite.

Companies (that is, corporate management) generally do not know how to "think outside the box" - because that is from where the knockout punch is coming ...

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Well, it seems you've explained why your resume contains a number of "former" positions you've held.

No company can plan for everything. No company should.

However, a sound business plan is not a "comfort tool". That is an astonishing claim. A company that does not plan is doomed, period. A competent Executive would know this.

Obviously, there is nothing more to be gained here, so I'll leave you to your bizarre claims.

ocean515 said:

However, a sound business plan is not a "comfort tool". That is an astonishing claim. A company that does not plan is doomed, period. A competent Executive would know this.

.

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Interesting that liberals don't like CEO pay but now admit a CEO who can predict the future to one degree or another is very very rare and worth 10 times what he gets paid!!

James972 said:

Interesting that liberals don't like CEO pay but now admit a CEO who can predict the future to one degree or another is very very rare and worth 10 times what he gets paid!!

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I don't know about all liberals, but certainly some appear to be hampered by levels of cognitive dissonance that removes the ability to think rationally.