OK, those are the facts. What is your opinion?
As an assistant restaurant manager for Taco Bell Corp. years ago, I saw first hand what happens in fast food when the minimum wage goes up. From 1989 to 1991, the minimum wage increased from $3.35 to $4.25. That doesn't sound like much, but when a good chunk of your workforce gets a 27% raise in two years in a labor-intensive business, that's a significant hit to your P&L. The company made it clear that changes would be implemented to reduce labor hours in the restaurants, and it did. Among the changes:
1. Whereas raw beef was previously sent to the stores in 10-pound bags, seasoned, and then cooked, beef prep was centralized and came to the stores pre-cooked, such that it only had to be reheated in hot water.
2. Lettuce, tomatoes, onions, and green onions were delivered in produce boxes and shredded or diced in the stores. Henceforth, they came in bags already prepped.
3. Corn taco shells were fried in the stores. After the changes, they came pre-fried in boxes.
4. Raw pinto beans were cooked in pressure cookers and then mashed by hand. After the changes went into effect, they came pre-cooked.
5. Previously, cheddar cheese came in large blocks and was shredded in the stores. After the changes, it came pre-shredded.
6. Salaried assistant manager positions (like mine) were eliminated and replaced with hourly "shift" or "lead" workers. Unit level (store) mangers were given responsibility for multiple outlets.
7. Across-the-board cuts were made to labor hours. You were just expected to keep up the same standards and run the restaurant with fewer workers.
Before the changes were implemented, the company often utilized various programs to hire disabled workers (such as people with Down syndrome) to work in the restaurants. Normally, they were restricted to food prep and cleaning duties, but once the food prep was largely done offsite we simply didn't need these people anymore, so we stopped utilizing them. Also, we tended to hire fewer sixteen-year-olds, because they were required by law to be out of the restaurants by 10:00 PM and they were limited in the number of hours they could be scheduled. Personally, I liked hiring them, because it was often their first job and they tended to be reliable and have good attitudes. But with fewer hours, we needed more flexibility from the workers we had, and the unstated fact was age became a more relevant factor in hiring.
So, yeah, there is no doubt in my mind that higher labor cost will mean fewer workers, especially young and disabled workers.