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Where will the DOW close at on Dec. 31, 2016?

DA60

DA60

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It closed out 2015 at 17,425.03.

Where do you think it will be on Dec. 31, 2106?
 
My way too early predictions for the markets for 2016... (and way too early to be going into this without sufficient coffee...)

18644.78 for the DOW, 2207.45 for the S&P500. Or, roughly a 7% gain in the DOW and 8% gain in the S&P500 (the S&P500 closed at 2,043.94 on December 31, 2015.

Here is mainly why in just a few subjects...

One, world central bank monetary policies are not really in sync right now nor will they be over 2016.

You could argue very well that the primary influence on the markets to date since the financial collapse was the Fed QE programs. In fact, there is almost to the day link between gains and QE rounds 1 through 3 when charting this out. Consequently once the program ended so did the continual sharp rises in the equity markets. For 2016 what we will see is monetary policies playing out elsewhere putting pressure on the US Dollar. As an example, the European Central Bank is still going through their own QE easing policy whereas the US has already gone the other way with tightening efforts with a beginning to rate increases to continue over 2016. With the US Dollar probably being pressured upwards, that also means upward pressure on US Companies doing business overseas. Could mean resistance to equity valuation growth when considering another year of weak economic growth in key markets around the globe.

Two, Oil should find a bottom in the next quarter but it does not mean a sharp rise anytime soon.

When looking over 2016 I cannot find many examples of contractual puts for anything near $50 per bbl over the entire next year, but I do see plenty of them being placed and called right around that $40 per bbl well into April of 2016 ($45 'ish range over the summer months.) It suggests that despite what the Saudis are trying to do that Oil is very oversold, but without a quick rebound there is no reason to not consider 2016 to be just like 2015 for energy market equities. There is not enough expectation of demand increases to offset the probable production and inventory levels across 2016 (assuming no major events causing production problems.) Slow growth in energy prices means covering slow growth in those sectors of the DOW and S&P500, or negative baggage on overall equity market growth over the entire year.

Three, the US has an election year for 2016.

Historically this means volatility climbs to some degree, and usually based on the assumptions of both the disposition of the next White House and the next Congress. If it continues to be politically adversarial between the two (i.e. Hillary wins and the 115th Congress stays Republican... my prediction there as well,) then volatility may not bump all that much but for just a few months towards the end of the year. However, if there is an upset (unlikely) or major shift in Congress (very unlikely) then all sorts of complications may come up towards the end of 2016 taking out all gains to that point. Either way, volatility during a time of slow to moderate equity growth suggests rushing to higher quality equities over lower quality, dividend protections over valuation yields, large caps over small caps, etc. Said another way, safe investing on a slow growth year.
 
Me? I have no idea since the DOW is (IMO) almost totally dependent on what the Fed does. And since I have no idea what the Fed will do, I have no idea what the DOW will do.

If the Fed keeps doing it's stealth QE at the present rate of roughly $200-250 billion per year and raises rates very slowly/not at all then I think the DOW will fall roughly 5-10%. Remember, in 2015 with ZIRP and stealth QE it dropped 2%. But things look worse now IMO then they did a year ago overall.

But if the Fed gets worried and starts stimulating again...the DOW could shoot up again.

One thing is certain, fundamentals are more or less out the window in this era of central bank dominance.
 
This global economy is in a death spiral so we know where we are going, but when and how has yet to be known. Things are getting more risky and choppy as we go however. I think this is going to be like the old adage on bankruptcy " first it goes slowly, then it goes very very fast". The final collapse will catch our breath.
 
Bump!!!!!
 
DA60 said:
It closed out 2015 at 17,425.03.

Where do you think it will be on Dec. 31, 2106?
Click to expand...

I'd say 22,000. Trump is pro-growth as the market as already acknowledged whereas Obama was anti-business socialist.
 
Looks like it may hit 20,000 as early as today. Thank you, Obama!
 
Cardinal said:
Looks like it may hit 20,000 as early as today. Thank you, Obama!
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they call it the Trump bump because it started the day he was elected, and the day the anti business socialist was no longer to be our president.
 
James972 said:
they call it the Trump bump because it started the day he was elected, and the day the anti business socialist was no longer to be our president.
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"They" are idiots. Obama is President, ergo it's his credit.
 
Cardinal said:
"They" are idiots. Obama is President, ergo it's his credit.
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right and its just coincidence the rally started the day Obama lost!! Good thinking
 
Cardinal said:
So you're admitting that Obama wasn't running for election? I'll call that "progress."
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Hilary was running for 3rd Obama term, There was huge stock rally the day Trump/congress was elected and anti business socialist presidency and Congress were defeated.
 
James972 said:
Hilary was running for 3rd Obama term, There was huge stock rally the day Trump/congress was elected and anti business socialist presidency and Congress were defeated.
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...during the Obama presidency. I know. Say, "Thank you, President Obama!"
 
Cardinal said:
...during the Obama presidency. I know. Say, "Thank you, President Obama!"
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thank you stock market took off day anti business socialist Obama was defeated. What a surprise.
 
James972 said:
thank you stock market took off day anti business socialist Obama was defeated. What a surprise.
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Are you attributing the 200% increase from March 2009 until November 2016 to Obama?

fredgraph.png


:lol:

Good to know!
 
One President at a time.

Such as when we were losing 750,000 jobs a month 8 years ago.

Which Obama got stuck with in Feb. 2009, though it was not his fault .
 
Kushinator said:
Are you attributing the 200% increase from March 2009 until November 2016 to Obama?

fredgraph.png


:lol:

Good to know!
Click to expand...

Why attribute to Obama who would regard it as and insult if business did well as a result of his anti business socialist efforts?
 
James972 said:
Why attribute to Obama who would regard it as and insult if business did well as a result of his anti business socialist efforts?
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If you are anything, it is intellectually inconsistent. The brick-thick partisanship is strong with you.
 
Kushinator said:
If you are anything, it is intellectually inconsistent. The brick-thick partisanship is strong with you.
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Jesus and Hitler were partisan. And?????? You prefer someone with no POV? Or you think a POV means you are wrong?? Get it??
 
Kushinator said:
If you are anything, it is intellectually inconsistent. .
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if so you'd present your best example to document your fantasy. Why not try??
 
I think it'll close out in the 19,000s somewhere plus or minus. Business is happy with Trump so far.
 
jet57 said:
I think it'll close out in the 19,000s somewhere plus or minus. Business is happy with Trump so far.
Click to expand...

its high 19's now despite 8 years of a anti business libsocialist president. Trump is pro business and pro jobs so you 'd expect 25,000
 
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