- Joined
- Sep 28, 2011
- Messages
- 15,166
- Reaction score
- 11,407
- Location
- SF Bay Area
- Gender
- Male
- Political Leaning
- Conservative
Remember when Sweden was "doomed" because it did very little to stop the pandemic? Recall all the forum hysteria a few months ago, the uninformed assumption that pandemics exponentially increase forever unless aggressive measures are taken to suppress it? Recall those of us who pointed out that most infections are polynomial (not exponential) with a sudden rise and then decline IF left "unsuppressed"?
Well, it looks like Sweden just proved team apocalypse embarrassingly wrong and the critics right.
Avlidna is "fatalities" in english
Sjukdomsfall is "cases" in english
per dag is "per day" in english
Here are the key takeaways:
1. The classic Gompers S-Curve for unsuppressed pandemic cases has been achieved, as predicted by Team Reality.
2. The total deaths per day has reached near zero for this mainly unsuppressed pandemic, as predicted by Team Reality
3. The age distribution of deaths has been heavily weighted towards senior citizens (1/2 or more in rest homes) as predicted by Team Reality.
4. Sweden has attained herd immunity in AT LEAST two of its three largest areas of infection.
In fact, only 70 people below the age of 50 have died from COVID in Sweden.
The future? A hotspot might occur in a second wave in the fall/winter (Malmo area) because evidence for herd immunity for that area is uncertain. But there is little doubt that where 50 percent of Sweden's people live, in densely populated areas, herd immunity is nearly complete.
Well, it looks like Sweden just proved team apocalypse embarrassingly wrong and the critics right.
Avlidna is "fatalities" in english
Sjukdomsfall is "cases" in english
per dag is "per day" in english
Here are the key takeaways:
1. The classic Gompers S-Curve for unsuppressed pandemic cases has been achieved, as predicted by Team Reality.
2. The total deaths per day has reached near zero for this mainly unsuppressed pandemic, as predicted by Team Reality
3. The age distribution of deaths has been heavily weighted towards senior citizens (1/2 or more in rest homes) as predicted by Team Reality.
4. Sweden has attained herd immunity in AT LEAST two of its three largest areas of infection.
In fact, only 70 people below the age of 50 have died from COVID in Sweden.
The future? A hotspot might occur in a second wave in the fall/winter (Malmo area) because evidence for herd immunity for that area is uncertain. But there is little doubt that where 50 percent of Sweden's people live, in densely populated areas, herd immunity is nearly complete.
Last edited: