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The coronavirus race to the bottom

Phys251

Phys251

Purge evil with Justice
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Location
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As we know, this virus and its associated disease, COVID-19, need to be analyzed on a per-capita basis when comparing states or regions. Also it is a good idea to filter out statistical noise.

With these two caveats in mind, let's look at how the states are doing with the one-week average of the number of new cases per capita. Since you have to get COVID-19 to die from it, and since COVID-19 deaths can lag behind new cases by several weeks, we can start with just the numbers of new cases per capita.

Today's worst-case rankings are:

1. Florida
2. Arizona
3. Louisiana
4. South Carolina
5. Georgia
6. Texas
7. Alabama
8. Tennessee
9. Idaho
10. Mississippi

After being in the lead for several weeks, Arizona has stabilized at roughly the same number of new daily infections per capita that New York state had at the height of its outbreak, actually seeing their one-week average drop a little in the last couple of days. Florida has overtaken them with an increase that shows no end in sight. Louisiana is not far behind.

Note that all ten of these states went red in the last presidential election.

Today's best-case rankings are:

1. Vermont
2. Maine
3. New Hampshire
4. Connecticut
5. Hawaii
6. New Jersey
7. New York (!)
8. Massachusetts
9. Michigan
10. Wyoming

Andrew Cuomo has taken his state from having by far the worst coronavirus situation in the nation to one of the best. One has to wonder how much credit goes to his citizens who accepted the life-saving science that brought their daily case numbers down.

Gretchen Whitmer, the governor of Michigan, wisely resisted cries from a fringe minority who wanted her to remove life-saving measures from her state. Because she did so, her citizens get to enjoy a state with one of the lowest infection rates in the country.

Note that the top eight states in this list all went blue in the last presidential election.
 
Southern red-state governors kowtowed to Trumps demand that states reopen far too early, with the [political] hope of re-energizing the worst US economy since the Great Depression.

Those states are now paying the price for listening to Donald Trump rather than to Dr. Anthony Fauci. Now those states must close yet again, which is devastating.

Another such nexus is approaching. Donald Trump is now demanding that schools fully reopen asap. Yet there is no federal plan or assistance.

Who will the Governors and parents and the teachers listen to? Trump or Dr. Fauci? Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida is obeying Trump in the midst of COVID ravaging that state.

That is insane.
 
Since the very beginning the data has been garbage. For financial and bureaucratic reasons, the books have been cooked and they are still being cooked. Some are in denial about that fact.
 
Rogue Valley said:
Southern red-state governors kowtowed to Trumps demand that states reopen far too early, with the [political] hope of re-energizing the worst US economy since the Great Depression.

Those states are now paying the price for listening to Donald Trump rather than to Dr. Anthony Fauci. Now those states must close yet again, which is devastating.

Another such nexus is approaching. Donald Trump is now demanding that schools fully reopen asap. Yet there is no federal plan or assistance.

Who will the Governors and parents and the teachers listen to? Trump or Dr. Fauci? Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida is obeying Trump in the midst of COVID ravaging that state.

That is insane.
Click to expand...

DeSantis is the quintessential Republican Headcase.

HEre’s a bit of hubris from May 2020.

 
Rogue Valley said:
Southern red-state governors kowtowed to Trumps demand that states reopen far too early, with the [political] hope of re-energizing the worst US economy since the Great Depression.

Those states are now paying the price for listening to Donald Trump rather than to Dr. Anthony Fauci. Now those states must close yet again, which is devastating.

Another such nexus is approaching. Donald Trump is now demanding that schools fully reopen asap. Yet there is no federal plan or assistance.

Who will the Governors and parents and the teachers listen to? Trump or Dr. Fauci? Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida is obeying Trump in the midst of COVID ravaging that state.

That is insane.
Click to expand...

Yes, When DeVos was interviewed a few days ago it was quite clear from her remarks that there is no federal plan in place to keep your kids safe, and the buck is passed to individual states to flounder around and do the best they can.
What I found truly disgusting was Trump's threat to remove federal funding from schools which refuse to reopen, instead offering financial bribes to those as yet undecided. As always it's about politics, Trump's obsession with getting reelected and screw anyone else, including children. Of course Trump can't actually do any of that, legally, but it gives you a good insight into his transactional mindset.
 
snakestretcher said:
Yes, When DeVos was interviewed a few days ago it was quite clear from her remarks that there is no federal plan in place to keep your kids safe, and the buck is passed to individual states to flounder around and do the best they can.
What I found truly disgusting was Trump's threat to remove federal funding from schools which refuse to reopen, instead offering financial bribes to those as yet undecided. As always it's about politics, Trump's obsession with getting reelected and screw anyone else, including children. Of course Trump can't actually do any of that, legally, but it gives you a good insight into his transactional mindset.
Click to expand...

.....
108730630_1668266826659310_1642899046549180089_n.jpg
 
AZ appears to be plateauing and models currently predict they could start to be on a downward trend as early as July 22. This will probably be pushed back because this is about the time we will see the affects of July 4th. I'm hoping AZ follows what California is doing and shuts down indoor activities. If they don't, we will probably see a flood of Californians coming to vacation here like they did in the early summer.

There are a lot of scary numbers. Deaths, ICU, Ventilator etc. are up. This would be expected given the number of cases recently.

The number of emergency room visits due to C19 has been trending down the last six days. The Rt is also trending down. The positive tests are also trending down but still scary high.

AZ includes antibody tests with positive tests. I suppose that skews the numbers upward. Do other states do this? AZ also has a high percentage of infections from the Navajo nation and it's southern border county's. The southern county's get some overflow from Mexico. It seems AZ has a lot of infections in its prison system.

Today's numbers are very high but there is always a lag from the weekend.

Basically, although AZ's overall numbers on a per capita basis is horrible we may actually be seeing indicators that things are getting better and maybe things aren't as bad as it looks.
 
Thoreau72 said:
Since the very beginning the data has been garbage. For financial and bureaucratic reasons, the books have been cooked and they are still being cooked. Some are in denial about that fact.
Click to expand...

When the facts point to the obviou, denial is all Trumpsters have.

It isn’t as if they can point to the sterling leadership of their fuhrer.

He is still telling people that if we don’t test, we don’t get cases!
 
Jetboogieman said:
DeSantis is the quintessential Republican Headcase.

HEre’s a bit of hubris from May 2020.

Click to expand...
While Pence looks on, approvingly! Why are these guys losing, again? :doh
 
TomFitz said:
When the facts point to the obviou, denial is all Trumpsters have.

It isn’t as if they can point to the sterling leadership of their fuhrer.

He is still telling people that if we don’t test, we don’t get cases!
Click to expand...
And then they (DP Trump supporters) rush in here, and tell us the same thing! It's total nonsense. Hilarious even, if not for the gravity of the situation.
 
TomFitz said:
When the facts point to the obviou, denial is all Trumpsters have.

It isn’t as if they can point to the sterling leadership of their fuhrer.

He is still telling people that if we don’t test, we don’t get cases!
Click to expand...

Trump's best demonstration of leadership was when he implied:

I choose to have states take care of this virus hoax in this year and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard.

Before you fire out the lawsuits, the line is implied, not in quotations, and it is a parity. For some reason I felt the need to put in this disclaimer, hmmmm
 
Chomsky said:
And then they (DP Trump supporters) rush in here, and tell us the same thing! It's total nonsense. Hilarious even, if not for the gravity of the situation.
Click to expand...


I used to think it was hilarious when all the lemmings went wild on cue over things like incandescent light bulbs. This is a lot more dangerous.
 
TomFitz said:
When the facts point to the obviou, denial is all Trumpsters have.

It isn’t as if they can point to the sterling leadership of their fuhrer.

He is still telling people that if we don’t test, we don’t get cases!
Click to expand...

LOL, it sounds like you might be in denial yourself, about many things besides Apocalypse Covid.

Likely you firmly believe the virus began by somebody in China drinking bat soup. Highly likely you believe that JFK was killed by "the lone gunman" or that his brother was killed by Sirhan.

This event was planned, and many people profit nicely from it. If you're into the stock market, buy Big Pharma.
 
TomFitz said:
I used to think it was hilarious when all the lemmings went wild on cue over things like incandescent light bulbs. This is a lot more dangerous.
Click to expand...
It's deadly serious. Our peer nations' citizens used to laugh & joke about us. Now they pity us, and look at us with alarm.
 
Phys251 said:
As we know, this virus and its associated disease, COVID-19, need to be analyzed on a per-capita basis when comparing states or regions. Also it is a good idea to filter out statistical noise.

With these two caveats in mind, let's look at how the states are doing with the one-week average of the number of new cases per capita. Since you have to get COVID-19 to die from it, and since COVID-19 deaths can lag behind new cases by several weeks, we can start with just the numbers of new cases per capita.

Today's worst-case rankings are:

1. Florida
2. Arizona
3. Louisiana
4. South Carolina
5. Georgia
6. Texas
7. Alabama
8. Tennessee
9. Idaho
10. Mississippi

After being in the lead for several weeks, Arizona has stabilized at roughly the same number of new daily infections per capita that New York state had at the height of its outbreak, actually seeing their one-week average drop a little in the last couple of days. Florida has overtaken them with an increase that shows no end in sight. Louisiana is not far behind.

Note that all ten of these states went red in the last presidential election.

Today's best-case rankings are:

1. Vermont
2. Maine
3. New Hampshire
4. Connecticut
5. Hawaii
6. New Jersey
7. New York (!)
8. Massachusetts
9. Michigan
10. Wyoming

Andrew Cuomo has taken his state from having by far the worst coronavirus situation in the nation to one of the best. One has to wonder how much credit goes to his citizens who accepted the life-saving science that brought their daily case numbers down.

Gretchen Whitmer, the governor of Michigan, wisely resisted cries from a fringe minority who wanted her to remove life-saving measures from her state. Because she did so, her citizens get to enjoy a state with one of the lowest infection rates in the country.

Note that the top eight states in this list all went blue in the last presidential election.
Click to expand...

Funny thing, all Republicans know that's fake news. That's one of the reasons their states are blowing up with the fake covid19.
 
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