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COVID-19 Cases Are Rising, So Why Are Deaths Falling?

Rogue Valley

Rogue Valley

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COVID-19 Cases Are Rising, So Why Are Deaths Falling?

The gap between soaring cases and falling deaths is being weaponized by the right to claim a hollow victory in the face of shameless failure. What’s really going on?

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7/10/20
For the past few weeks, I have been obsessed with a mystery emerging in the national COVID-19 data. Cases have soared to terrifying levels since June. Yesterday, the U.S. had 62,000 confirmed cases, an all-time high—and about five times more than the entire continent of Europe. Several U.S. states, including Arizona and Florida, currently have more confirmed cases per capita than any other country in the world. But average daily deaths are down 75 percent from their April peak. Despite higher death counts from the past few days, the weekly average has largely plateaued in the past two weeks. The gap between spiking cases and falling-then-flatlining deaths has become the latest partisan flash-point. What follows are five possible explanations for the case-death gap. Take them as complementary, rather than competing, theories.

1. Deaths lag cases—and that might explain almost everything. The death lag is probably the most important thing to understand in evaluating the case-death gap. But it doesn’t explain everything. Even where deaths are rising, corresponding cases are rising notably faster.

2. Expanded testing is finding more cases, milder cases, and earlier cases. identifying new fatal cases of COVID-19 earlier in the victims’ disease process could mean a longer lag between detection and death. This phenomenon, known as “lead time bias,” might be telling us that a big death surge is coming. And maybe it is. Maybe this is all as simple as nationwide deaths are about to soar, again. But there are still three reasons to think that any forthcoming death surge could be materially different from the one that brutalized the Northeast in March and April: younger patients, better hospital outcomes, and summer effects.

3. The typical COVID-19 patient is getting younger. The most important COVID-19 story right now may be the age shift. In Florida, the median age of new COVID-19 cases fell from 65 in March to 35 in June. Then it fell again, to just 21 in July. In Arizona, Texas, and California, young adults getting sick have been driving the surge.

4. Hospitalized patients are dying less frequently, even without a home-run treatment. The hospitalization and death data that we have aren’t good enough or timely enough to say anything definitive. But the chart suggests some good news (finally): Patients at hospitals are dying less.

5. Summer might be helping—but probably only a little bit. Finally, as more people wear masks and move their activities outside in the summer, they might come into contact with smaller infecting doses of COVID-19. Some epidemiologists have claimed that there is a relationship between viral load and severity. With more masks and more outdoor interactions, it’s possible that the recent surge is partly buoyed by an increase in these low-dosage cases.
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Trumps recent claim that COVID is "harmless" is poppycock and disinformation. That more people are being infected by COVID but less are dying is probably due to a falling age median, more people are wearing a mask and social distancing, and finally the medical people who treat COVID have learned how to go about it much better. For example, they have learned that putting people on a ventilator is the wrong thing to do. There are also now better medications for treatment like Remdesivir.

However, there is also bad news. Health professionals now have enough data to draw some onerous conclusions. COVID attacks many internal body organs via the ACE2 receptor found on most organ cells. COVID badly damages internal organs (including the brain) and also creates blood clots throughout the body. COVID also causes the body to produce enormous amounts of inflammatory proteins called cytokines. This creates what is called a 'cytokine storm' which causes severe symptoms in a human body. COVID can forever scar the lungs of young people. This virus is a cryptic devil. It can brutalize people’s bodies for weeks or months even if it doesn’t kill them.
 
Do you have clinical proof that Remdesivir works, like all the data proving it makes a substantial difference?
 
HennyBogan said:
Do you have clinical proof that Remdesivir works, like all the data proving it makes a substantial difference?
Click to expand...

Don't be so lazy. Look up and read the literature.
 
Rogue Valley said:
COVID-19 Cases Are Rising, So Why Are Deaths Falling?

The gap between soaring cases and falling deaths is being weaponized by the right to claim a hollow victory in the face of shameless failure. What’s really going on?

defense-large.png




Trumps recent claim that COVID is "harmless" is poppycock and disinformation. That more people are being infected by COVID but less are dying is probably due to a falling age median, more people are wearing a mask and social distancing, and finally the medical people who treat COVID have learned how to go about it much better. For example, they have learned that putting people on a ventilator is the wrong thing to do. There are also now better medications for treatment like Remdesivir.

However, there is also bad news. Health professionals now have enough data to draw some onerous conclusions. COVID attacks many internal body organs via the ACE2 receptor found on most organ cells. COVID badly damages internal organs (including the brain) and also creates blood clots throughout the body. COVID also causes the body to produce enormous amounts of inflammatory proteins called cytokines. This creates what is called a 'cytokine storm' which causes severe symptoms in a human body. COVID can forever scar the lungs of young people. This virus is a cryptic devil. It can brutalize people’s bodies for weeks or months even if it doesn’t kill them.
Click to expand...

And the typical response to all of that is "FEAR MONGERING!" That would make sense, except President Trump's request to the Supreme Court to overturn the Affordable Care Act also puts into place protection for insurance companies from patients and former patients of COVID-19. Why would they treat COVID-19 as a pre-existing condition if it did not result in severe, long lasting damage to people's health? If it is "FEAR MONGERING!" then President Trump is guilty of perpetuating that same fear.
 
What mystery?

Deaths lag cases by about three weeks.

Cases have started riding about mid to late June, and deaths will rise in early July.

It’s early July, and deaths are starting to climb.

Two big factors that may help lessen the next peak are that the average age of cases has dropped, which means lower mortality, and we have learned much about treatment over the last few months.

But the deaths will rise in lockstep- and peak 2-3 weeks after the cases peak.
 
Rogue Valley said:
COVID-19 Cases Are Rising, So Why Are Deaths Falling?

The gap between soaring cases and falling deaths is being weaponized by the right to claim a hollow victory in the face of shameless failure. What’s really going on?

defense-large.png




Trumps recent claim that COVID is "harmless" is poppycock and disinformation. That more people are being infected by COVID but less are dying is probably due to a falling age median, more people are wearing a mask and social distancing, and finally the medical people who treat COVID have learned how to go about it much better. For example, they have learned that putting people on a ventilator is the wrong thing to do. There are also now better medications for treatment like Remdesivir.

However, there is also bad news. Health professionals now have enough data to draw some onerous conclusions. COVID attacks many internal body organs via the ACE2 receptor found on most organ cells. COVID badly damages internal organs (including the brain) and also creates blood clots throughout the body. COVID also causes the body to produce enormous amounts of inflammatory proteins called cytokines. This creates what is called a 'cytokine storm' which causes severe symptoms in a human body. COVID can forever scar the lungs of young people. This virus is a cryptic devil. It can brutalize people’s bodies for weeks or months even if it doesn’t kill them.
Click to expand...

If more people get it and less people die from it, that places the virus in the realm of a cold or flu.

Nothing to destroy our economy...issue authoritarian edicts...get all hypocritical...about.

But, of course, the Dems and T-haters won't let this go. It's all they have at the moment to run with in their election campaign against Trump.
 
HennyBogan said:
Do you have clinical proof that Remdesivir works, like all the data proving it makes a substantial difference?
Click to expand...

Well, Trump mentioned Remdesivir, so we know it doesn't work. Why bother with clinical trials? All we require is rhat Trump mention it to put the stuff on a shelf as a curiousity, and nothing more.
 
Threegoofs said:
What mystery?

Deaths lag cases by about three weeks.

Cases have started riding about mid to late June, and deaths will rise in early July.

It’s early July, and deaths are starting to climb.

Two big factors that may help lessen the next peak are that the average age of cases has dropped, which means lower mortality, and we have learned much about treatment over the last few months.

But the deaths will rise in lockstep- and peak 2-3 weeks after the cases peak.
Click to expand...

Exactly. The deaths stopped dropping about a month ago, and the new infections started rising about two weeks ago.

United States Coronavirus: 3,305,005 Cases and 136,830 Deaths - Worldometer

Scroll down past the tables of states. There's two bar graphs, daily new cases and daily new deaths. There's options below the graphs to superimpose lines representing averages. Anyone who looks at those graphs as reason for complacency either doesn't understand what they're looking at or is indulging in wishful thinking.
 
Democrats will do anything to hide Joe Biden from debating Trump.
 
Mycroft said:
If more people get it and less people die from it, that places the virus in the realm of a cold or flu.

Nothing to destroy our economy...issue authoritarian edicts...get all hypocritical...about.

But, of course, the Dems and T-haters won't let this go. It's all they have at the moment to run with in their election campaign against Trump.
Click to expand...

But that's not What's happening. The daily new deaths stopped going down about a month ago and the daily new cases started climbing about two weeks ago.

United States Coronavirus: 3,305,005 Cases and 136,830 Deaths - Worldometer
 
humbolt said:
Well, Trump mentioned Remdesivir, so we know it doesn't work. Why bother with clinical trials? All we require is rhat Trump mention it to put the stuff on a shelf as a curiousity, and nothing more.
Click to expand...

If you mean it is not a cure, you are correct, however evidence shows it does work to reduce the chance of death. If you are dismissing this because Trump mentioned it, well you are just sadly uninformed and too biased to search out facts.

Gilead says remdesivir coronavirus treatment reduces risk of death
Remdesivir and coronavirus: More good news about antiviral COVID drug
New study supports remdesivir as COVID-19 treatment
Remdesivir and coronavirus: More good news about antiviral COVID drug

There is also another drug that has shown to decrease the odds on death, Dexamethasone, first created in the 1950s, is usually given to treat ulcerative colitis, arthritis and some types of cancer.
 
Sabre said:
If you mean it is not a cure, you are correct, however evidence shows it does work to reduce the chance of death. If you are dismissing this because Trump mentioned it, well you are just sadly uninformed and too biased to search out facts.

Gilead says remdesivir coronavirus treatment reduces risk of death
Remdesivir and coronavirus: More good news about antiviral COVID drug
New study supports remdesivir as COVID-19 treatment
Remdesivir and coronavirus: More good news about antiviral COVID drug

There is also another drug that has shown to decrease the odds on death, Dexamethasone, first created in the 1950s, is usually given to treat ulcerative colitis, arthritis and some types of cancer.
Click to expand...

I was kidding. I understand that Remdesivir has some limited value as a treatment. It's not the silver bullet we have been hoping for, but if it saves some lives, that's good enough until we find something better.
 
humbolt said:
I was kidding. I understand that Remdesivir has some limited value as a treatment. It's not the silver bullet we have been hoping for, but if it saves some lives, that's good enough until we find something better.
Click to expand...

With an increasing number of Americans dying of COVID everyday, you thought it was cool to take a potshot at the Remdesivir treatment?

:shrug:
 
humbolt said:
Well, Trump mentioned Remdesivir, so we know it doesn't work. Why bother with clinical trials? All we require is rhat Trump mention it to put the stuff on a shelf as a curiousity, and nothing more.
Click to expand...

That's an odd comment. All the public requires of Trump is that he faithfully follows the evidence. If the clinical trials shows Remdesivir works, then Trump's job is simple - say that. If there is no evidence it works, say nothing, or say that. Etc.

What's amazing here is Trump has the simplest job imaginable in a crisis like this. Hire good people and listen to them, and tell the public the facts. That he fails on the latter almost daily isn't the fault of anyone but Trump. With HCL he was pushing the benefits when the evidence it's useful simply didn't exist. That was the problem. It's not hard.
 
minnie616 said:
Remdesivir (GS-5734™) | Official Website for US HCPs
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From the link!

Remdesivir is an investigational drug that has not been approved by the FDA for any use. It is not yet known if remdesivir is safe and effective for the treatment of COVID-19.
The distribution of remdesivir has been authorized only for the treatment of hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19. It is not authorized for the treatment of any other viruses or pathogens.
 
HennyBogan said:
From the link!

Remdesivir is an investigational drug that has not been approved by the FDA for any use. It is not yet known if remdesivir is safe and effective for the treatment of COVID-19.
The distribution of remdesivir has been authorized only for the treatment of hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19. It is not authorized for the treatment of any other viruses or pathogens.
Click to expand...

Did you click on the link with the data?

Without the drug , 80 percent of persons who have Covid 19 and were put on ventilator die.
But you asked for the data if you can’t access it perhaps there is a restriction to data access.

From the following

In this cohort of patients hospitalized for severe Covid-19 who were treated with compassionate-use remdesivir, clinical improvement was observed in 36 of 53 patients (68%). Measurement of efficacy will require ongoing randomized, placebo-controlled trials of remdesivir therapy. (Funded by Gilead Sciences.)
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
minnie616 said:
Did you click on the link with the data?

Without the drug , 80 percent of persons who have Covid 19 and were put on ventilator die.
But you asked for the data if you can’t access it perhaps there is a restriction to data access.

From the following

In this cohort of patients hospitalized for severe Covid-19 who were treated with compassionate-use remdesivir, clinical improvement was observed in 36 of 53 patients (68%). Measurement of efficacy will require ongoing randomized, placebo-controlled trials of remdesivir therapy. (Funded by Gilead Sciences.)
Click to expand...

Wow 53 patient study!! Smfh, total bull**** study.
Click to expand...
 
HennyBogan said:
minnie616 said:
Did you click on the link with the data?

Without the drug , 80 percent of persons who have Covid 19 and were put on ventilator die.
But you asked for the data if you can’t access it perhaps there is a restriction to data access.

From the following



Wow 53 patient study!! Smfh, total bull**** study.
Click to expand...

This sounds like a knee jerk reaction. It does not properly evalution the evidence.
There is also the use of steroids to reduce inflamation of the lungs, which they didn't know which steroids would work at the start of the epidemic, and the use of blood thinners to stop blood clots, strokes and heart attacks, which can be triggered by this virus.
Click to expand...
 
HennyBogan said:
minnie616 said:
Did you click on the link with the data?

Without the drug , 80 percent of persons who have Covid 19 and were put on ventilator die.
But you asked for the data if you can’t access it perhaps there is a restriction to data access.

From the following



Wow 53 patient study!! Smfh, total bull**** study.
Click to expand...

Did Henny Bogan avoid the last sentence on purpose? "Measurement of efficacy will require ongoing randomized, placebo-controlled trials..." 'Ongoing' being the operative.
Click to expand...
 
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