Is The Virus Weakening?

Jonsa · Jul 8, 2020

RetiredUSN said:
I learned that I was asymptomatic last Monday from a test conducted the Friday before. My company paid for everybody's test (about 200) which was nice, and the lab came right to our truck terminal. All the ground crews were tested out on the various job sites. The ground crews being out doors all day I think helps, and us Quint Axle drivers are pretty much inside our trucks all day.

There are 12 positives and nobody is sick thankfully. The lab that conducted the told us that we had a much lower percentage compared to the companies they have tested in the area.

About the only symptom I have had so far was a mild sore/scratchy throat last Monday and it wasn't really all that noticeable unless I happened to be thinking about it.

I have been reading a few article with some doctors reporting that the cases are not as severe as a few months ago.

Coronavirus mutation found in one sample could signal it's getting weaker | Daily Mail Online

COVID-19 is weakening, could die out without vaccine, specialist claims - The Jerusalem Post

Coronavirus is weakening, could disappear on its own: Italian doctor

Some doctors say people with COVID-19 don’t seem to be getting as sick, and that people recently tested are showing a lower viral load compared to those who tested positive for COVID-19 a few months ago.

I hope it does go by the way of the SARS virus and disappear.

Absolutely NO evidence of a weakening of the virus. Asymptomatic is exactly that. The decline in death rate can be mostly attributed to evolving knowledge and treatment protocols.

I hope you being asymptomatic you have quarantined for 14 days. did they do any contact tracing?

JasperL · Jul 8, 2020

longview said:
Your graph only has the positive inpatients, so is not all the positive test, but only those who are already in the hospital.
I found a link that has a lot of data from New York City, and looked at new cases vs deaths.
Coronavirus Statistics: Tracking The Epidemic In New York - Gothamist
Without numbers, we can only eyeball the center of the new cases vs deaths, but they look like about 8 days apart.
the new cases started increasing on 3/17/20, while the deaths started increasing on 3/23/20, suggesting a shorter lag.

I don't really think the time frames are comparable. In early/mid March there was almost no testing capacity, so by the time a case was identified, the person had passed through infection, symptoms, and was at the ED being admitted to the hospitalization stage where they got a rare test, and from there it is a week on average to death. That's what CDC has estimated as a general rule - hospitalization to death about a week, with a large variation.

In this era, we're identifying a lot of cases early, sometimes at symptom onset and other times through contact tracing pre-symptoms, so the lag between a case and recorded death should be longer, by at least a week or so.

longview · Jul 8, 2020

JasperL said:
I don't really think the time frames are comparable. In early/mid March there was almost no testing capacity, so by the time a case was identified, the person had passed through infection, symptoms, and was at the ED being admitted to the hospitalization stage where they got a rare test, and from there it is a week on average to death. That's what CDC has estimated as a general rule - hospitalization to death about a week, with a large variation.

In this era, we're identifying a lot of cases early, sometimes at symptom onset and other times through contact tracing pre-symptoms, so the lag between a case and recorded death should be longer, by at least a week or so.

We will get to see, and several states have had large spikes in cases, the question not if the deaths will spike also, but when.
The morality rate among the younger demographic, may be lower also.

code1211 · Jul 9, 2020

humbolt said:
It's certainly a different approach than the normal procedure. If we're going to throw money at something, this seems worthy, anyway.

I agree!

At first I thought that the various companies were all in a race to accomplish the same result and just competing to see who could get around the track first.

I have heard some reports that the competing companies are developing medicines as things that are different from one another but all, using different tracks and methods, still initiate an immune response from the body. Amazing!

Exciting times. It's like the moon shot technologies developing answers along lines that we in the Great Unwashed have never even imagined. I wonder what Velcro product is being developed.

Given the nature of this virus and its success, it looks like we're going to need some antivirals that act like our current antibiotics.

We're lucky to have genius scientists who can address this kind of thing. At least, we all hope that their genius is equal to the task.

I'm still wondering if there were genius scientists involved in the creation or the distribution of this particular thing.

Thoreau72 · Jul 9, 2020

Phys251 said:
You may not like the facts, but all the empty bluster in the world can't refute them. :shrug:

A fact you don't like to discuss is that 600,000+ die from cancer in this country every year, but we don't shut down the economy and the Constitution over that.

You don't like to discuss the fact that a wee tiny, less than 1% of those infected go on to die.

Likely you don't like to discuss the fact that numbers have been fudged regarding the mortality rate, probably for the financial incentives to hospitals for Covid diagnosis/admission.

snakestretcher · Jul 9, 2020

Thoreau72 said:
It will go the way of most every other virus before it.

My blood test last week came back negative for the antibodies.

Besides the virus weakening, slowly but surely the herd immunity grows.

There is no evidence of herd immunity, no evidence of short or long-term immunity (if any), and several reports of folk being reinfected post-recovery, even after being tested negative. The virus is emphatically not weakening. This is not the time for false optimism.

Coronavirus pandemic getting worse globally - WHO head Tedros - Reuters

Declines in COVID-19 cases not due to herd immunity – NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre

Coronavirus & immunology Q&A: what you need to know about our new report | British Society for Immunology

Thoreau72 · Jul 9, 2020

snakestretcher said:
There is no evidence of herd immunity, no evidence of short or long-term immunity (if any), and several reports of folk being reinfected post-recovery, even after being tested negative. The virus is emphatically not weakening. This is not the time for false optimism.

Coronavirus pandemic getting worse globally - WHO head Tedros - Reuters

Declines in COVID-19 cases not due to herd immunity – NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre

Coronavirus & immunology Q&A: what you need to know about our new report | British Society for Immunology

This morning's NYT has a headline claiming that a particular neighborhood in Queens where they did serological testing showed 68% positive for antibodies. I read only the headline part, totally amazed that NYT would print such heresy to the official narrative.

Sorry for no link. It's there if you're interested in reading it.

humbolt · Jul 9, 2020

code1211 said:
I agree!

At first I thought that the various companies were all in a race to accomplish the same result and just competing to see who could get around the track first.

I have heard some reports that the competing companies are developing medicines as things that are different from one another but all, using different tracks and methods, still initiate an immune response from the body. Amazing!

Exciting times. It's like the moon shot technologies developing answers along lines that we in the Great Unwashed have never even imagined. I wonder what Velcro product is being developed.

Given the nature of this virus and its success, it looks like we're going to need some antivirals that act like our current antibiotics.

We're lucky to have genius scientists who can address this kind of thing. At least, we all hope that their genius is equal to the task.

I'm still wondering if there were genius scientists involved in the creation or the distribution of this particular thing.

I'm not certain about your last, there. I think the confidence level is very high that this virus did originate in Wuhan from natural sources. What may have been behind the spread of it will likely never be known. It could be a simply natural consequence of our interactive world, but I wouldn't entirely dismiss the Chinese propensity for exploiting such situations. The Chinese threat to cut off the supply of essential medications to the west is enough to establish ill intent.

code1211 · Jul 9, 2020

RAMOSS said:
There is a good chance that vaccines won't work on this virus... for any kind of long term solution. However, there is good progress with antiviral drugs, and treatment

Needing annual vaccines against the flu shows the problems presented to us by a flu type virus.

I received vaccinations for polio and measles and small pox in grade school, but don't need a recurring vaccine every year for these same bugs.

With a little luck, our genius scientists will come up with the thing that will turn out to be a permanent fix.

snakestretcher · Jul 9, 2020

code1211 said:
Needing annual vaccines against the flu shows the problems presented to us by a flu type virus.

I received vaccinations for polio and measles and small pox in grade school, but don't need a recurring vaccine every year for these same bugs.

With a little luck, our genius scientists will come up with the thing that will turn out to be a permanent fix.

Unlikely considering reports that the Covid-19 virus mutates as readily as influenza. We can hope though.

Why you need one vaccine for measles and many for the flu -- ScienceDaily

snakestretcher · Jul 9, 2020

Thoreau72 said:
A fact you don't like to discuss is that 600,000+ die from cancer in this country every year, but we don't shut down the economy and the Constitution over that.

You don't like to discuss the fact that a wee tiny, less than 1% of those infected go on to die.

Likely you don't like to discuss the fact that numbers have been fudged regarding the mortality rate, probably for the financial incentives to hospitals for Covid diagnosis/admission.

Cancer isn't an infectious disease. Did that small detail elude you?

Thoreau72 · Jul 9, 2020

code1211 said:
Needing annual vaccines against the flu shows the problems presented to us by a flu type virus.

I received vaccinations for polio and measles and small pox in grade school, but don't need a recurring vaccine every year for these same bugs.

With a little luck, our genius scientists will come up with the thing that will turn out to be a permanent fix.

Many people do not take the annual flu shot. Somehow we're still alive.

Some data months ago showed that those who did take the annual shot fared worse once infected with Covid, by about 36%. You never heard that on MSM though.

Thoreau72 · Jul 9, 2020

snakestretcher said:
Cancer isn't an infectious disease. Did that small detail elude you?

No, I was very much aware of that.

The emphasis is and has been on the death rate. That was my point.

Though now with the huge increase in testing, the emphasis is on OMG so many cases.

I've always thought the infection rate is much higher than publicized. Increased number tested = increased number of cases discovered = increased fear factor.

snakestretcher · Jul 9, 2020

Thoreau72 said:
Many people do not take the annual flu shot. Somehow we're still alive.

Some data months ago showed that those who did take the annual shot fared worse once infected with Covid, by about 36%. You never heard that on MSM though.

Maybe if you learned that Covid-19 is nothing like influenza it would be a good start to your education.

snakestretcher · Jul 9, 2020

Thoreau72 said:
No, I was very much aware of that.

The emphasis is and has been on the death rate. That was my point.

Though now with the huge increase in testing, the emphasis is on OMG so many cases.

I've always thought the infection rate is much higher than publicized. Increased number tested = increased number of cases discovered = increased fear factor.

You should be fearful; this thing can kill you very quickly.

Thoreau72 · Jul 9, 2020

snakestretcher said:
You should be fearful; this thing can kill you very quickly.

Yeah, maybe so, but the stats show that less than 1% of those infected die.

A bigger factor for me is that out of the several dozens of people I know who have had it, not a single one has died yet, and it's been 6 months.

snakestretcher · Jul 9, 2020

Thoreau72 said:
Yeah, maybe so, but the stats show that less than 1% of those infected die.

A bigger factor for me is that out of the several dozens of people I know who have had it, not a single one has died yet, and it's been 6 months.

Personally I don't care for statistics. I do, however, care deeply about my health and that of those around me. I don't subscribe to anecdotal, 'I don't know anyone who has it', evidence and take whatever precautions I can to keep myself safe. Then there's the small matter of asymptomatic infection; you simply can't tell if someone is sick by looking at them and assuming that because they don't display symptoms, they aren't infectious.
I don't personally know anyone who has been infected either, but I'm also not complacent or dismissive.

noonereal · Jul 9, 2020

Thoreau72 said:
Yeah, maybe so, but the stats show that less than 1% of those infected die.

A bigger factor for me is that out of the several dozens of people I know who have had it, not a single one has died yet, and it's been 6 months.

First off, your 1% is wrong... wait till the deaths start coming from the spokes in the south.

second, what about the suffering so many have been through? You just ignore that.

and further, what about teh long term health effects of which there are tons?

In other words, you just doing a death count is ridiculous.

noonereal · Jul 9, 2020

snakestretcher said:
Personally I don't care for statistics. I do, however, care deeply about my health and that of those around me. I don't subscribe to anecdotal, 'I don't know anyone who has it', evidence and take whatever precautions I can to keep myself safe. Then there's the small matter of asymptomatic infection; you simply can't tell if someone is sick by looking at them and assuming that because they don't display symptoms, they aren't infectious.
I don't personally know anyone who has been infected either, but I'm not complacent either.

anecdotal and he bases his judgement on that.... enough said about that post

MTAtech · Jul 9, 2020

Thoreau72 said:
Yeah, maybe so, but the stats show that less than 1% of those infected die.

A bigger factor for me is that out of the several dozens of people I know who have had it, not a single one has died yet, and it's been 6 months.

Your anecdotal experience provides not very much to the overall picture. Studies show that of all age groups combined, the death rate of those infected is about 1%. That's a big number, which implies a 3 million person death rate in the U.S. if we did nothing.

Moderate Right · Jul 9, 2020

RetiredUSN said:
I learned that I was asymptomatic last Monday from a test conducted the Friday before. My company paid for everybody's test (about 200) which was nice, and the lab came right to our truck terminal. All the ground crews were tested out on the various job sites. The ground crews being out doors all day I think helps, and us Quint Axle drivers are pretty much inside our trucks all day.

There are 12 positives and nobody is sick thankfully. The lab that conducted the told us that we had a much lower percentage compared to the companies they have tested in the area.

About the only symptom I have had so far was a mild sore/scratchy throat last Monday and it wasn't really all that noticeable unless I happened to be thinking about it.

I have been reading a few article with some doctors reporting that the cases are not as severe as a few months ago.

Coronavirus mutation found in one sample could signal it's getting weaker | Daily Mail Online

COVID-19 is weakening, could die out without vaccine, specialist claims - The Jerusalem Post

Coronavirus is weakening, could disappear on its own: Italian doctor

Some doctors say people with COVID-19 don’t seem to be getting as sick, and that people recently tested are showing a lower viral load compared to those who tested positive for COVID-19 a few months ago.

I hope it does go by the way of the SARS virus and disappear.

stay healthy

RetiredUSN · Jul 9, 2020

Moderate Right said:
stay healthy

Was in the kayak fishing from 5:30 am this morning until 2 hours ago.

Feel great.

2distracted · Jul 9, 2020

RetiredUSN said:
I learned that I was asymptomatic last Monday from a test conducted the Friday before. My company paid for everybody's test (about 200) which was nice, and the lab came right to our truck terminal. All the ground crews were tested out on the various job sites. The ground crews being out doors all day I think helps, and us Quint Axle drivers are pretty much inside our trucks all day.

There are 12 positives and nobody is sick thankfully. The lab that conducted the told us that we had a much lower percentage compared to the companies they have tested in the area.

About the only symptom I have had so far was a mild sore/scratchy throat last Monday and it wasn't really all that noticeable unless I happened to be thinking about it.

I have been reading a few article with some doctors reporting that the cases are not as severe as a few months ago.

Coronavirus mutation found in one sample could signal it's getting weaker | Daily Mail Online

COVID-19 is weakening, could die out without vaccine, specialist claims - The Jerusalem Post

Coronavirus is weakening, could disappear on its own: Italian doctor

Some doctors say people with COVID-19 don’t seem to be getting as sick, and that people recently tested are showing a lower viral load compared to those who tested positive for COVID-19 a few months ago.

I hope it does go by the way of the SARS virus and disappear.

Thanks for sharing

Good news..which is whyu CNN and co. Probably won't be doing this story

Fox probably will

The AntiDonald · Jul 9, 2020

longview said:
It is difficult to tell if the virus is weakening or if the treatment is improving, but something is happening.
The number of infections has climbed quit a bit, while the number of deaths has declined.
texas covid 19 cases - Google Search
texas covid 19 cases - Google Search
Even though the new cases have been raising for about a month, the number of deaths has been falling!

Problem with that is many people spend weeks in the ICU fighting this virus. Some spend months before they finally die. With the recent increases in positive cases all along the south, we haven't reached the point yet where deaths will rise. Of course we all hope they don't.

longview · Jul 9, 2020

The AntiDonald said:
Problem with that is many people spend weeks in the ICU fighting this virus. Some spend months before they finally die. With the recent increases in positive cases all along the south, we haven't reached the point yet where deaths will rise. Of course we all hope they don't.

There are several variables going on at the same time. The age demographic has shifted to younger (hopefully healthier) people,
Our treatments have also improved. I think in NYC the curves were about 2 weeks apart, so we are about to see.