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Is The Virus Weakening?

Thoreau72 said:
It will go the way of most every other virus before it.

My blood test last week came back negative for the antibodies.

Besides the virus weakening, slowly but surely the herd immunity grows.
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Calling for "herd immunity" from COVID-19 is a dog whistle for genocide.
 
longview said:
The links I posted were for the entire US, I got to the site by looking at Texas, but adjusted the scope for New cases and deaths for the US.
Deaths from Covid-19 in Texas have been cycling between 10 and 58 deaths per day, since May 14.
texas covid 19 cases - Google Search
View attachment 67286530
But US deaths from Covid-19 have been dropping!
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We're still averaging over 500 Americans lost per day, not including the many more who are developing severe complications.

We know more about this disease than we did back in March, and we can treat it better, but we still have too many COVID deniers who prefer "herd immunity" genocide.
 
Phys251 said:
We're still averaging over 500 Americans lost per day, not including the many more who are developing severe complications.

We know more about this disease than we did back in March, and we can treat it better, but we still have too many COVID deniers who prefer "herd immunity" genocide.
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Are you denying that the deaths in the US from Covid-19 are declining, while the number of cases is increasing,
because that is what the numbers show. The cause of that change is a combination of factors, but the numbers are real!
 
humbolt said:
I have no idea. I would note that infections have been rising, but so far deaths have not increased significantly. That may change over the next few weeks. As I said, time will tell. We can only react, and take reasonable precautions.

I agree that herd immunity is wishful thinking. Continuous mutation makes such immunity unlikely.
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There are several good articles on what doctors have learned in the last few months and how they are doing much better in the survival vs death department.
Here's one.

What ICU doctors have learned about COVID-19 — and how they'''re prepared for a 2nd wave
 
HumblePi said:
It's extremely simple for everyone. Why has it been made so difficult? It doesn't take any virtue or altruism just to do something as simple as wearing a mask.
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I live alone in a rural area. I normally don't run into many people. So yes, it is simpler for me.
 
longview said:
Are you denying that the deaths in the US from Covid-19 are declining, while the number of cases is increasing,
because that is what the numbers show. The cause of that change is a combination of factors, but the numbers are real!
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130,000 deaths probably means nothing to you. So maybe if you want to have your armchair quarterbacking taken a little more seriously, you should first take the time to study up on COVID-19 and the fact that death is not the only horrible thing that it causes. :thumbs:
 
RetiredUSN said:
I learned that I was asymptomatic last Monday from a test conducted the Friday before. My company paid for everybody's test (about 200) which was nice, and the lab came right to our truck terminal. All the ground crews were tested out on the various job sites. The ground crews being out doors all day I think helps, and us Quint Axle drivers are pretty much inside our trucks all day.

There are 12 positives and nobody is sick thankfully. The lab that conducted the told us that we had a much lower percentage compared to the companies they have tested in the area.

About the only symptom I have had so far was a mild sore/scratchy throat last Monday and it wasn't really all that noticeable unless I happened to be thinking about it.

I have been reading a few article with some doctors reporting that the cases are not as severe as a few months ago.

Coronavirus mutation found in one sample could signal it's getting weaker | Daily Mail Online

COVID-19 is weakening, could die out without vaccine, specialist claims - The Jerusalem Post

Coronavirus is weakening, could disappear on its own: Italian doctor

Some doctors say people with COVID-19 don’t seem to be getting as sick, and that people recently tested are showing a lower viral load compared to those who tested positive for COVID-19 a few months ago.

I hope it does go by the way of the SARS virus and disappear.
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There's a different strain which is more contagious but doesn't make people as sick. New coronavirus strain is more infectious but does not make people sicker: study - Business Insider

SARS didn't disappear. It went into hiatus, and Corona is just another strain of it. If a vaccine had been developed when the initial SARS outbreak happened maybe Corona could have been contained or perhaps even exterminated.
 
Phys251 said:
130,000 deaths probably means nothing to you. So maybe if you want to have your armchair quarterbacking taken a little more seriously, you should first take the time to study up on COVID-19 and the fact that death is not the only horrible thing that it causes. :thumbs:
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I am looking at the data, that you are denying!
Something is changing, ether the virus is weakening, or our treatments are improving.
Ether way the number of deaths is dropping, while the number of confirmed infected continues to increase.
The decline in deaths is from a peak on May 6.
us covid deaths - Google Search
While the new cases have been increasing since June 8.
us covid deaths - Google Search
 
longview said:
I am looking at the data, that you are denying!
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:lamo

I love how you ignored the FACTS that I wrote and are doubling down on your implication that deaths are the only problem. Have you read nothing about the symptoms of COVID-19 survivors, or are you going to dismiss those, too? :roll:
 
Indie guy said:
There's a different strain which is more contagious but doesn't make people as sick. New coronavirus strain is more infectious but does not make people sicker: study - Business Insider

SARS didn't disappear. It went into hiatus, and Corona is just another strain of it. If a vaccine had been developed when the initial SARS outbreak happened maybe Corona could have been contained or perhaps even exterminated.
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No, it is not weakening. However, one reason people are showing lower initial viral loads , which effect the severity is people are wearing masks in many places. We also have better knowledge on how to treat people who have stronger symptoms.

If you are asymptomic, one thing that 'might' reduce the chances of the severe symptoms is making sure you have a good level of vitamin. Take vitamin d3 supplements. If your blood levels of vit d are normal, it won't do much either for or against things. If the are low, then it has a good chance of reducing the severe symptoms from appears. 42% of people in the U.S. are vitamin D deficient... and that goes up on older adults.

So, it's not that the virus is weakening, but we have a much better handle on how to treat it. And, due to wearing masks and social distancing, quite often the initial viral load is less.
 
Phys251 said:
:lamo

I love how you ignored the FACTS that I wrote and are doubling down on your implication that deaths are the only problem. Have you read nothing about the symptoms of COVID-19 survivors, or are you going to dismiss those, too? :roll:
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I know there are other problems besides death for Covid-19, but my comment is related to the fact that the deaths from Covid-19 is dropping
while the number of cases is increasing. There are plenty of other measure, but this is just one.
Factors involved could range from a younger demographic infected, to the virus is actually weakening.
We know it has mutated to a more contagious strain, but so far they think the new strain is not anymore dangerous than the old one.
https://www.scripps.edu/_files/pdfs...n the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein reduces S1.pdf
 
longview said:
Why would they not? The counties doing the counting are democrat controlled, while the Governor is a Republican,
The Counties will report as many deaths as possible, to make the Governor's policies look bad!
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And those counties account for what.. a few % of all counties? What about the GOP controlled ones? Wait till the total deaths come out (if ever) and compare that to previous years... then we will know how badly Texas and Florida and others have manipulated the numbers.
 
PeteEU said:
And those counties account for what.. a few % of all counties? What about the GOP controlled ones? Wait till the total deaths come out (if ever) and compare that to previous years... then we will know how badly Texas and Florida and others have manipulated the numbers.
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No, those counties account for about 60% of the population of the state.
 
Indie guy said:
There's a different strain which is more contagious but doesn't make people as sick.
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You're reading it wrong.

It is more infections, but is roughly equal in severity.

That's not good news.


SARS didn't disappear. It went into hiatus, and Corona is just another strain of it. If a vaccine had been developed when the initial SARS outbreak happened maybe Corona could have been contained or perhaps even exterminated.
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Sorry, but that is not quite correct.

SARS and COVID-19 are both coronaviruses. However, COVID-19 is not a strain of SARS, they are distinct diseases.

There are some similarities, and researchers did learn much based on SARS research, which is helping accelerate the development of vaccines. But I'm pretty sure that a vaccine for SARS would not work for COVID-19.
 
humbolt said:
Objectively separating data offered to induce panic from the rest is an acquired discipline, but easily available to anyone of sound mind. Otherwise, some people end up ingesting fish tank cleaner.

There have been contrary directives and statements. I've concluded that the best approach is to take reasonable precautions, stand back, and just observe. I have read that virus mutations generally trend toward increasing virulence and decreasing lethality. We'll see. I think predicting mutations is just a mildly educated guess. We're stuck with reacting only at this point. Hopefully we can be more aggressive in a few months if it's necessary.
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All of the drug production/research companies announcing progress seem to give cause for hope.

Perhaps only cause for increased stock prices...

In any event, running the phases of testing and setting up mass production concurrently seems interesting at least.
 
Phys251 said:
Calling for "herd immunity" from COVID-19 is a dog whistle for genocide.
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Embrace your inner coward. Fear and irrationality are good! They lead to absurd and grandiose statements.
 
code1211 said:
All of the drug production/research companies announcing progress seem to give cause for hope.

Perhaps only cause for increased stock prices...

In any event, running the phases of testing and setting up mass production concurrently seems interesting at least.
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It's certainly a different approach than the normal procedure. If we're going to throw money at something, this seems worthy, anyway.
 
Thoreau72 said:
Embrace your inner coward. Fear and irrationality are good! They lead to absurd and grandiose statements.
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You may not like the facts, but all the empty bluster in the world can't refute them. :shrug:
 
longview said:
Are you denying that the deaths in the US from Covid-19 are declining, while the number of cases is increasing,
because that is what the numbers show. The cause of that change is a combination of factors, but the numbers are real!
Click to expand...

The problem is there is a roughly 4 week lag between infection and reported death. It's good news that the cases started going up in a big way around June 15th and we're only seeing slight upticks in deaths, about three weeks later, but we can't say that not seeing data we actually should just now start seeing is proof deaths will remain low. That's not true. We don't know what will happen.

The other problem we're seeing locally is the initial boost in cases was young people, but now those cases are spreading out to the older demos
 
code1211 said:
All of the drug production/research companies announcing progress seem to give cause for hope.

Perhaps only cause for increased stock prices...

In any event, running the phases of testing and setting up mass production concurrently seems interesting at least.
Click to expand...

There is a good chance that vaccines won't work on this virus... for any kind of long term solution. However, there is good progress with antiviral drugs, and treatment
 
JasperL said:
The problem is there is a roughly 4 week lag between infection and reported death. It's good news that the cases started going up in a big way around June 15th and we're only seeing slight upticks in deaths, about three weeks later, but we can't say that not seeing data we actually should just now start seeing is proof deaths will remain low. That's not true. We don't know what will happen.

The other problem we're seeing locally is the initial boost in cases was young people, but now those cases are spreading out to the older demos
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The lag between a positive results and death ranges between 2 weeks and 4 weeks, we will see if that holds true with the younger demographic now infected.
 
longview said:
The lag between a positive results and death ranges between 2 weeks and 4 weeks, we will see if that holds true with the younger demographic now infected.
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Right, unfortunately around here, we're seeing the cases progress to hospitalizations and now deaths. Here's hospitalizations:

Screen Shot 2020-07-08 at 12.40.01 PM.jpg

It doesn't seem like there's a magic this time around that cases ===> harmless.
 
JasperL said:
Right, unfortunately around here, we're seeing the cases progress to hospitalizations and now deaths. Here's hospitalizations:

View attachment 67286655

It doesn't seem like there's a magic this time around that cases ===> harmless.
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Your graph only has the positive inpatients, so is not all the positive test, but only those who are already in the hospital.
I found a link that has a lot of data from New York City, and looked at new cases vs deaths.
Coronavirus Statistics: Tracking The Epidemic In New York - Gothamist
Without numbers, we can only eyeball the center of the new cases vs deaths, but they look like about 8 days apart.
the new cases started increasing on 3/17/20, while the deaths started increasing on 3/23/20, suggesting a shorter lag.
NYC_deaths.jpg
 
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