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Peak of 7-day average for daily deaths was reached on April 21 at 2255 (*)
(*) Subject to change if newly discovered deaths affect older data
It's been going down since, and today we are at 511 7-day average.
Is 7-day daily death rate going to trend up to at least say half of it prior peak, i.e. 1123? (say in 2020, to put a time limit on it)
I don't have an answer. I can think of cases being made for both.
Case for the second death wave
- increased testing giving us more lead time before deaths occur so delay before second wave is longer than we've seen with first wave of cases
- younger population is more careless and is affected less by the virus than older population. Younger population is also the one coming out to work after reopenings. As a result, we are seeing a lot more younger people getting infected. As they spread the virus more and more, older people (those more likely to die) will have less places to hide. So we are just seeing a greater lag before older population gets it.
- testing is getting overwhelmed again, PPE are getting to be in shorter supply again, this will lead to more deaths
- cases lead to increases of hospitalizations and THEN to increases in deaths. We are starting to see increases in hospitalizations only now, again suggesting longer lag time between case increases and resulting deaths.
Case for NO second death wave
- with increased testing and more lead time, we have more time to give medicine before it is too late (some meds work better when you catch it earlier)
- we also have new medication that we did not have before, which works later in the disease progression, so less people will have to die even if caught later
- my estimates suggest 20-30 million infections back around beginning of May. It's possible we are around 40-50 million now. While most believe herd immunity will take place at around 70%, some researchers have suggested it could even be close to 10-20% because of cross-immunity (source 1, source 2). IF my estimates are close and IF those researchers have a leg to stand on, we are within that herd immunity range. Admittedly, both are very BIG IFs.
- many deaths (50%+?) come from nursing homes. It is possible the virus already either hit most of them and/or others are much more vigilant about protecting against it with strict polities, etc.
- other countries are not seeing death spikes after reopenings. (However, they are also not seeing increases in number of cases like US.)
(*) Subject to change if newly discovered deaths affect older data
It's been going down since, and today we are at 511 7-day average.
Is 7-day daily death rate going to trend up to at least say half of it prior peak, i.e. 1123? (say in 2020, to put a time limit on it)
I don't have an answer. I can think of cases being made for both.
Case for the second death wave
- increased testing giving us more lead time before deaths occur so delay before second wave is longer than we've seen with first wave of cases
- younger population is more careless and is affected less by the virus than older population. Younger population is also the one coming out to work after reopenings. As a result, we are seeing a lot more younger people getting infected. As they spread the virus more and more, older people (those more likely to die) will have less places to hide. So we are just seeing a greater lag before older population gets it.
- testing is getting overwhelmed again, PPE are getting to be in shorter supply again, this will lead to more deaths
- cases lead to increases of hospitalizations and THEN to increases in deaths. We are starting to see increases in hospitalizations only now, again suggesting longer lag time between case increases and resulting deaths.
Case for NO second death wave
- with increased testing and more lead time, we have more time to give medicine before it is too late (some meds work better when you catch it earlier)
- we also have new medication that we did not have before, which works later in the disease progression, so less people will have to die even if caught later
- my estimates suggest 20-30 million infections back around beginning of May. It's possible we are around 40-50 million now. While most believe herd immunity will take place at around 70%, some researchers have suggested it could even be close to 10-20% because of cross-immunity (source 1, source 2). IF my estimates are close and IF those researchers have a leg to stand on, we are within that herd immunity range. Admittedly, both are very BIG IFs.
- many deaths (50%+?) come from nursing homes. It is possible the virus already either hit most of them and/or others are much more vigilant about protecting against it with strict polities, etc.
- other countries are not seeing death spikes after reopenings. (However, they are also not seeing increases in number of cases like US.)
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