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Holy Crap! Huge Jump in COVID Cases Today

Unitedwestand13 said:
That is more american deaths than the number of Americans killed in world war 2, world war 1, and the Spanish flu... combined
Click to expand...

Mind you, I'm not predicting we reach that number - that's just the implication if we don't do anything about it and let it "burn itself out".
 
NWRatCon said:
The impact on Texas' medical system is acute. An increase in people dying at home suggests coronavirus deaths in Houston may be higher than reported (abc, local). They can't get to them fast enough. The same thing happened in New York at its peak. It's like a recurring nightmare. (See also, Arizona, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, California...)
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You might be interested in looking at the CURRENT trend lines for "Daily Deaths", "7 Day Average Deaths", and "10 Day Average of Averages".

20-07-11 Y1- US Daily Deaths.JPG

20-07-11 Y2 - 7 Day Average Chart.JPG

20-07-11 Y3 - 10 Day Average of Averages.JPG​

Based on the CURRENT situation, those trend lines do not look very good.

Since this thread started, the death numbers have been

20-07-11 X2 - Huge Jump Table.JPG​

With the average of those numbers being 646.857 (which is not as bad as it was at the previous peak, but also not as good as it was at the previous low point).

I know that I don't have to spell it out for you, but for the benefit of the disciples of Dr. Mushmouth, I feel compelled to do so.

"Trend lines" only indicate what is likely to happen
IF NOTHING CHANGES to alter the situation."​
 
NWRatCon said:
I read (trying to find the cite again) that preliminary CDC(?) Analysis indicates that the "burden" is at least 28% higher than reported cases. Burden is CDC-speak for "excess deaths", meaning deaths likely caused by the virus, but untested/unreported as such.
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FOUND THE REFERENCE! It was a JAMA study: COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. may be 28% higher than official count, study estimates (LA Times, subscription).
That means that for every 3.5 known victims of COVID-19, another American lost his or her life as a result of the coronavirus outbreak.

“Official tallies likely undercount deaths due to the virus,” researchers reported Wednesday in JAMA Internal Medicine. The extent of this undercount varies “markedly between states,” they added.

Between March 1 and May 31, the number of COVID-19 deaths reported to the National Center for Health Statistics was 95,235. But there are good reasons to suspect that figure is an undercount, the study authors explained.
Click to expand...
 
TU Curmudgeon said:
You might be interested in looking at the CURRENT trend lines for "Daily Deaths", "7 Day Average Deaths", and "10 Day Average of Averages".
Click to expand...
I find your analyses very helpful, my friend. As we've discussed, I generally limit my comparisons to 3-day and 7-day averages (which are going up markedly). I don't have your fluidity with spreadsheets and charts, but I do pay attention to the numbers and latest analysis.
 
NWRatCon said:
FOUND THE REFERENCE! It was a JAMA study: COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. may be 28% higher than official count, study estimates (LA Times, subscription).
Click to expand...

This is typical of pandemics, especially in the US where there really isn’t any standardized way of reporting deaths- it’s done on the county level.

Actual death counts won’t be known for a few years, and the numbers are invariably higher. The 2009 H1N1 pandemic, for example, didn’t have a definitive death count til 2012.
 
Unitedwestand13 said:
That is more american deaths than the number of Americans killed in world war 2, world war 1, and the Spanish flu... combined
Click to expand...

Indeed the total American deaths from WWI, "American Flu" (commonly known as "Spanish Flu" but it actually originated in the United States of America so, as with COVID-19 [AKA "Chinese Flu"], proper credit should really be given to the country that created it), and WWII was only 1,196,915.

However, <SARC>[I have consulted Dr. Mushmouth and he says that you have to include the American Civil War in your comparison. If you do that, then the total goes up to 1,996,915 and, since 1,635,000 is less than that, that **P*R*O*V*E*S** that the seriousness of COVID-19 is vastly over hyped (especially since only 10,300 people have died from it)</SARC>[.
 
Threegoofs said:
This is typical of pandemics, especially in the US where there really isn’t any standardized way of reporting deaths- it’s done on the county level.

Actual death counts won’t be known for a few years, and the numbers are invariably higher. The 2009 H1N1 pandemic, for example, didn’t have a definitive death count til 2012.
Click to expand...
Very true, my friend. If one applies that supposition to the "official" count, that's 175,453 COVID-19 deaths to date. That should factor into predictive models, too. It would also imply that they've exceeded my projection of 160,000 already. IHME has revised their estimate up, again, now projecting 208,000 deaths by the fall.
 
NWRatCon said:
I find your analyses very helpful, my friend. As we've discussed, I generally limit my comparisons to 3-day and 7-day averages (which are going up markedly). I don't have your fluidity with spreadsheets and charts, but I do pay attention to the numbers and latest analysis.
Click to expand...

The only problem that I have with "3 Day" averages, is that they tend to bounce around too much due to silly factors like "weekends" and "days that people simply don't like to die on [sometimes referred to as "The Christmas Effect"]".

As far as "fluidity" is concerned, I belong to the "Cut and Try" school of design and the "Armstrong" school of engineering.
 
TU Curmudgeon said:
The only problem that I have with "3 Day" averages, is that they tend to bounce around too much due to silly factors like "weekends" and "days that people simply don't like to die on [sometimes referred to as "The Christmas Effect"]".

As far as "fluidity" is concerned, I belong to the "Cut and Try" school of design and the "Armstrong" school of engineering.
Click to expand...
I agree. I use the 3-day mostly to spot early trends. The crossover points are instructive - when the three-day and seven-day trends switch places - going up or down. I also note, that, despite this being a weekend day, there is not a significant dip in reported cases or fatalities. Right now we're at nearly 60k cases and 700+ deaths. I'm afraid next week is going to be horror show. Arizona, Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas are maxed out for hospital capacity. That indicates fatalities will rise rapidly - not just for COVID, but other emergency care situations.
 
NWRatCon said:
I agree. I use the 3-day mostly to spot early trends. The crossover points are instructive - when the three-day and seven-day trends switch places - going up or down. I also note, that, despite this being a weekend day, there is not a significant dip in reported cases or fatalities. Right now we're at nearly 60k cases and 700+ deaths. I'm afraid next week is going to be horror show. Arizona, Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas are maxed out for hospital capacity. That indicates fatalities will rise rapidly - not just for COVID, but other emergency care situations.
Click to expand...

I use the (Excel generated) "polynomial" trend line in my charts. I think that it is the most "responsive" so don't be surprised if it flutters around a bit.

The Sunday and Monday numbers are always lower than the Friday numbers - sometimes by as much as 75% but more usually in the 40% to 60% range. The Saturday numbers are too irregular to make any judgment call on. [NOTE - My "Sunday numbers" are the numbers posted as of 0001 Sunday and are actually the numbers for Saturday.]
 
It's Tuesday. Spike day. I've noted that we're tracking backward through the month of June. I'm in a campground and don't have my spreadsheets with me. The trend the last few weeks though have been progressively upward. That seems to be continuing.
 
NWRatCon said:
It's Tuesday. Spike day. I've noted that we're tracking backward through the month of June. I'm in a campground and don't have my spreadsheets with me. The trend the last few weeks though have been progressively upward. That seems to be continuing.
Click to expand...

Tuesdays (and to a lesser extend Mondays and Wednedays) are when the deaths from Saturday and Sunday end up getting "put into the system".

Have some graphs

20-07-15 X1 - Huge Jump Chart.jpg

20-07-15 X2 - US Daily Deaths.jpg

20-07-15 X3 - 7 Day Average Chart.jpg

20-07-15 X4 - 10 Day Average of Averages.jpg

20-07-15 X5- Total US Deaths.jpg​
 
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