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Coronavirus may have caused hundreds of additional deaths in Florida

It doesn't surprise me that you accept confident assurances over empirical science. You do support Trump after all.

His self own on this thread was classic....

LOL!!

I'm not interested in "probability". Hell, if I was I'd tout every bogus poll I can find as god's truth.

No, I'm interested in reality. Take your "may" and your "theory" and peddle them to some useful idiots.

Then, very next post, posting "may" and "theory" as fact:

Wrong.

Colorado over counted COVID-19 deaths...until they got caught.

Doesn't get much better than that. Seems what the restriction relates to is whether the theory advances an agenda or not, and if it does, it's of course accepted with no evidence at all, like that CO over counted COVID-19 deaths....
 
Proof of that?

There's evidence some cases counted as COVID 19 weren't but you'd have to know how every person in Colorado died during the relevant period, accurately identify every single case of someone dying from COVID, then compare that total to the number of recorded cases, and show us the difference. So please, since you don't accept "theory," exactly how many people in Colorado died of COVID 19. I don't want an estimate - aka a "theory" - but just the facts.

So can you fill in the blanks?

Actual number of COVID 19 deaths as of some specific date? ____________
Number recorded by the state as of that date? _______________
Difference_____________

We'll await your non-theoretical answer!

Tell you what...fill in your own blanks.

Colorado amends coronavirus death count - says fewer have died of COVID-19 than previously reported | Fox News
 

No, you claim not to accept theory, only facts, and you made a claim CO overstated deaths. Maybe they did, but to claim that you have to KNOW as FACT how many died of COVID 19 in CO, and compare that to the total claimed deaths.

What you've shown is a few overcounts, but you don't know the undercounts, if they exist. You need both, and you need to know those numbers definitively, not estimates, but every single death in CO caused by CV19.

You don't have a clue what that number is because no one knows that number. We'll never know that number definitively. Various "estimates" and "theories" will be advanced, but you said you'd reject all those.

It's hilarious that your pledge to accept only "facts" didn't last a single post...
 
I see what you are saying. Yes social distancing while going about your daily routine causes more deaths than a total and complete lockdown. It causes less deaths than going about your daily routine and not social distancing, however.

Social distancing protects from Covid about as much as doing nothing or just going about one's daily routines. The asymptomatic won't be affected if they have Covid and those with slight enough symptoms to not need a hospital won't be affected if they have Covid, either.

This leaves those who are susceptible to hospitalization and/or death from Covid exposure: Those folks aren't being protected, either, with social distancing since the lockdown version of social distancing is the only type of social distancing which protects anyone from Covid exposure in a social distancing environment. Unless you want lockdown social distancing permanently, social distancing won't protect those most susceptible to Covid because lockdown social distancing is unsustainable.

Some will say the cases of Covid exposure have come down. People should care about number of Covid cases if the goal is to save hospital resources but they shouldn't care about number of cases if they are concerned with saving lives. People who want to save lives from Covid exposure should track number of cases where Covid is the underlying cause of hospitalization and/or death. Tracking cases where Covid is the underlying cause of hospitalization and/or death makes for a shorter crisis period because the crisis is devoted to those who are gravely sick and not also those who are Covid-infected. And what happens when no one is protected from Covid for an artificially longer period of time? More people die.
 
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Explain why you believe that it was CDC's policy " to admit Covid patients into nursing homes" Preparing for COVID-19 in Nursing Homes | CDC Updated May 19, 2020

Cuomo said he was following procedure when he let Covid patients back into nursing homes, for example. I doubt that procedure was derived from the NY state legislature, for example. The CDC/WHO was concerned with saving hospital resources from the Covid outbreak and not so concerned with saving lives because the letting of Covid patients back into nursing homes didn't save lives (obvious to the very laypersons) but it contained any further outbreak of Covid and any further need of hospital resources to the nursing homes which were self-contained.
 
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I've read the CDC guidelines and you are at best not being fair in your interpretation of the guidance. Here's CMS guidance based on CDC's recommendations.

https://www.cms.gov/files/document/3-13-2020-nursing-home-guidance-covid-19.pdf

And if someone sick with CV19 isn't admitted back to the home, or must be kicked out when diagnosed, the next question is where do these people live, especially in hard hit areas where the nursing home deaths were highest? Maybe in retrospect the feds or states seize a couple of unused hotels and staff them up with skilled nursing home care, and send them to those hotels, but otherwise, there aren't obvious options. Many residents don't have alternatives other than that facility, and those facilities are privately owned, so how do you force some kind of arrangement where one business gets the sick patients, and another keeps those not infected, etc.

So this thing about blaming CDC for nursing home deaths is fine but it's 20/20 hindsight and I'm sure most of the problem is facilities failed to achieve the guidelines because protecting any population that lives closely together is just damn near impossible of the virus is widely spreading in the community. So in Tennessee we had outbreaks in nursing homes mostly in Nashville and Memphis, because that's where we had the biggest outbreaks. In Knoxville, ONE nursing home had more than 1 case, and it had 4 cases, they diagnosed them, contained it, and had one death. My mother in law's place had ONE case, they effectively isolated her, and that was the only case so far. So nursing homes can protect the residents when the case counts are low. It's much harder if you find out 1/4th are sick, THEN try to isolate the remaining residents.

Point is the reason for social distancing is to reduce cases in the community, and where there were low cases in the community, there were FEW bad nursing home outbreaks. When it's running loose in the community, yes, nursing homes got hit hard. But that's because social distancing failed, basically.

Anyone with half a brain would understand the risk of returning Covid-infected patients back into a nursing home. The DCD/WHO wasn't considering preventing death. I conclude they were preventing a run on hospitable resources.
 
Absolutely none of your key conclusions are supported by any evidence I've seen. Furthermore, perhaps it's the "last way" except for all the other options available to us. What could we have done in Mid April other than closures and social distancing? Remember Sweden tried the - let the virus spread approach - and got hammered in their nursing homes. That's not a coincidence, or two unrelated aspects of their approach.

Furthermore in much of the country, social distancing or something else WORKED fabulously. Most cities had mild outbreaks. Knoxville is about 750k in the MSA with about 10-15 total deaths. I can't look at the shutdowns and measures put in place and find anywhere to say those failed in preventing deaths and disease related to CV19. We were spared here, and our mayor acted really early, way before we had any serious problem.

Finally, the economy was going to crash with or without government shutdowns, because the public didn't feel SAFE going out when we could read the news and see what was happening in Italy and NYC and elsewhere. Who is going to go to a basketball game with 20,000 of their closest friends, when the guy next to him could have CV19, infect them and kill them? Same with restaurants, and movies, and travel on confined planes, and large conventions and training and sales meetings and all the rest.

I've come to all my conclusions based on logic, deduction and philosophy. I'm not an epidemiologist. I'm more like a physicist conducting thought experiments on this subject. A good deal of the information I've received on this subject has come from detractors on DP to my theories about the uselessness of social distancing to combat a pandemic. There is a reason why social distancing has only been used once to combat a pandemic, IMO...Social distancing is too destructive.

Do you have any contributions you could provide?
 
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Politicians don't want us to realize how many people have died due to the so-called Fox News Hoax.
 
Social distancing protects from Covid about as much as doing nothing or just going about one's daily routines. The asymptomatic won't be affected if they have Covid and those with slight enough symptoms to not need a hospital won't be affected if they have Covid, either.

This leaves those who are susceptible to hospitalization and/or death from Covid exposure: Those folks aren't being protected, either, with social distancing since the lockdown version of social distancing is the only type of social distancing which protects anyone from Covid exposure in a social distancing environment. Unless you want lockdown social distancing permanently, social distancing won't protect those most susceptible to Covid because lockdown social distancing is unsustainable.

Some will say the cases of Covid exposure have come down. People should care about number of Covid cases if the goal is to save hospital resources but they shouldn't care about number of cases if they are concerned with saving lives. People who want to save lives from Covid exposure should track number of cases where Covid is the underlying cause of hospitalization and/or death. Tracking cases where Covid is the underlying cause of hospitalization and/or death makes for a shorter crisis period because the crisis is devoted to those who are gravely sick and not also those who are Covid-infected. And what happens when no one is protected from Covid for an artificially longer period of time? More people die.

But reducing the rate of infection will also accomplish this, albeit to a lesser degree, and social distancing reduces the infection rate. So social distancing does protect those who are susceptible, because those who are not at risk would be less likely to contract the virus, and therefore would be less likely to transmit it to someone who is susceptible.

Your theory only holds if the vulnerable are capable of being fully and perfectly isolated and protected. This pandemic has shown that this is impossible. While I agree that the vulnerable need to be protected, if those who are not susceptible do not social distance, the infection rate will be higher and there will be more chances of the virus spreading to the vulnerable, and therefore the death rate will be higher without social distancing.
 
But reducing the rate of infection will also accomplish this, albeit to a lesser degree, and social distancing reduces the infection rate. So social distancing does protect those who are susceptible, because those who are not at risk would be less likely to contract the virus, and therefore would be less likely to transmit it to someone who is susceptible.

Your theory only holds if the vulnerable are capable of being fully and perfectly isolated and protected. This pandemic has shown that this is impossible. While I agree that the vulnerable need to be protected, if those who are not susceptible do not social distance, the infection rate will be higher and there will be more chances of the virus spreading to the vulnerable, and therefore the death rate will be higher without social distancing.

You must feel that social distancing measures will be permanent. I feel this way, BTW. I don't expect a vaccine any time soon.
 
But reducing the rate of infection will also accomplish this, albeit to a lesser degree, and social distancing reduces the infection rate. So social distancing does protect those who are susceptible, because those who are not at risk would be less likely to contract the virus, and therefore would be less likely to transmit it to someone who is susceptible.

Your theory only holds if the vulnerable are capable of being fully and perfectly isolated and protected. This pandemic has shown that this is impossible. While I agree that the vulnerable need to be protected, if those who are not susceptible do not social distance, the infection rate will be higher and there will be more chances of the virus spreading to the vulnerable, and therefore the death rate will be higher without social distancing.

How is it impossible to isolate the vulnerable (EDIT: some reports say that is 20%) when the whole was isolated not too long ago with federal and state mandates?
 
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I saw a meme online that claimed Florida and other 'red' states were deliberately under-reporting Covid-19 deaths, while the death rate from other causes was above the average from earlier years. Doing a bit of reading, it turns out that it's not only red states that have under-reported Covid-19 deaths but there are other non-political reasons why the cause of death is not always a certainty.

from the Tampa Bay Times


NOW - here's a follow-up article that shows how real news is told
There’s a new theory about Florida, coronavirus and pneumonia deaths. May 29

What the Florida state government would like you to forget (if you ever knew it) is that "pneumonia" is NOT A DISEASE. What "pneumonia" is is a SYMPTOM.

That symptom can be caused by many factors including disease, chemicals, and trauma.

To classify a death as "pneumonia" is akin to classifying the death of someone who has completely exsanguinated because their throat was cut as being caused by "hypotension".
 
But reducing the rate of infection will also accomplish this, albeit to a lesser degree, and social distancing reduces the infection rate. So social distancing does protect those who are susceptible, because those who are not at risk would be less likely to contract the virus, and therefore would be less likely to transmit it to someone who is susceptible.

Your theory only holds if the vulnerable are capable of being fully and perfectly isolated and protected. This pandemic has shown that this is impossible. While I agree that the vulnerable need to be protected, if those who are not susceptible do not social distance, the infection rate will be higher and there will be more chances of the virus spreading to the vulnerable, and therefore the death rate will be higher without social distancing.

If the vulnerable are reverse quarantined, separated and protected from everyone else, they can be protected AND hospital resources can be saved since the vulnerable are protected (heavily) with this reverse quarantine.
 
This:

is highly questionable since it relies on speculation (opinion?).

Not really - I have seen reports of deaths due to other than COVID-19 where the deceased failed to seek prompt medical attention because (as their survivors reported) they were afraid of contracting COVID-19 if they were hospitalized. However, since I have neither the time nor interest in spending the time necessary to dig up links, let's say that the only thing that I am disagreeing with is the "highly" in your "highly questionable".

PS - "The Sun rises in the East." IS "questionable", but that doesn't mean that it isn't true.
 
LOL!!

I'm not interested in "probability". Hell, if I was I'd tout every bogus poll I can find as god's truth.

No, I'm interested in reality. Take your "may" and your "theory" and peddle them to some useful idiots.

Yes, I know that your definition of "bogus poll" is "A poll that didn't include at least one person I know PLUS me.", but, unfortunately, that isn't what reality is all about.

The attached tables ARE what reality is all about as is the daily update of the COVID-19 data is available at Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19 (which is also where you will find the notes for the first two tables).
 

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Not really - I have seen reports of deaths due to other than COVID-19 where the deceased failed to seek prompt medical attention because (as their survivors reported) they were afraid of contracting COVID-19 if they were hospitalized. However, since I have neither the time nor interest in spending the time necessary to dig up links, let's say that the only thing that I am disagreeing with is the "highly" in your "highly questionable".

PS - "The Sun rises in the East." IS "questionable", but that doesn't mean that it isn't true.

Just wondering how the sun rises in the east is questionable.
 
Anyone with half a brain would understand the risk of returning Covid-infected patients back into a nursing home. The DCD/WHO wasn't considering preventing death. I conclude they were preventing a run on hospitable resources.

So you are still misstating the recommendations. If you read them - and what I quoted was the original version from mid March - you can't assert they didn't consider the risks. So what you "conclude" is based on not knowing what CDC recommended...
 
I've come to all my conclusions based on logic, deduction and philosophy. I'm not an epidemiologist. I'm more like a physicist conducting thought experiments on this subject. A good deal of the information I've received on this subject has come from detractors on DP to my theories about the uselessness of social distancing to combat a pandemic. There is a reason why social distancing has only been used once to combat a pandemic, IMO...Social distancing is too destructive.

Do you have any contributions you could provide?

You mean, contributions you'll quote, ignore and not address a single word of, to restate your conclusions unburdened by the evidence? No thanks...
 
Only on this point

That's kind of funny. The problem with polls isn't the poll. They show who answered a series of questions a certain way. The problem is that extrapolating polls to the population is difficult because of the difficulty in getting a random sample, perfectly distributed geographically and demographically. And people often misunderstand what polls actually show.

Actually the reputable pollsters quite understand the difficulty in getting a random sample and that is why they "normalize" the responses.

For example if the population is 50% "A" and 50% "B" but the responses are 25% from "A" and 75% from "B" they will weight the "A" responses at three times the "B" responses. Where the problem actually arises is in determining what the "A" and "B" percentages are.
 
So you are still misstating the recommendations. If you read them - and what I quoted was the original version from mid March - you can't assert they didn't consider the risks. So what you "conclude" is based on not knowing what CDC recommended...

The risks of death from an admitting of a Covid patient into a nursing home is pretty darn high. Just wondering, do epidemiologists question, for example, the possibility of sunburn from overexposure to the sun?:roll:
 
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You mean, contributions you'll quote, ignore and not address a single word of, to restate your conclusions unburdened by the evidence? No thanks...

Why are you defending the CDC/WHO? The CDC/WHO should be absolved, for example, because they considered the risks of admitting Covid patients to nursing homes but admitted them anyway?:roll:
 
Just wondering how the sun rises in the east is questionable.

Easy.

"I don't believe that the Sun rises in the east. Prove it."

[NOTE - The "TRUE believer" will respond to whatever you say with "But that isn't what "east" is." or "But that isn't the Sun." or "You can never believe what any egg-head, so-called "scientist", so-called "expert" says. You can only trust what _[fill in name of appropriate cult leader]_ says because _[fill in name of appropriate cult leader]_ is never wrong.".]

[NOTE - I didn't say "rationally questioned".]
 
Easy.

"I don't believe that the Sun rises in the east. Prove it."

[NOTE - The "TRUE believer" will respond to whatever you say with "But that isn't what "east" is." or "But that isn't the Sun." or "You can never believe what any egg-head, so-called "scientist", so-called "expert" says. You can only trust what _[fill in name of appropriate cult leader]_ says because _[fill in name of appropriate cult leader]_ is never wrong.".]

[NOTE - I didn't say "rationally questioned".]

Gotcha.
 
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