Coronavirus may have caused hundreds of additional deaths in Florida

I saw a meme online that claimed Florida and other 'red' states were deliberately under-reporting Covid-19 deaths, while the death rate from other causes was above the average from earlier years. Doing a bit of reading, it turns out that it's not only red states that have under-reported Covid-19 deaths but there are other non-political reasons why the cause of death is not always a certainty.

from the Tampa Bay Times

Coronavirus may have caused hundreds of additional deaths in Florida
May 20

In places with large coronavirus outbreaks, researchers have recently found thousands of unexpected deaths beyond those captured in the official tally of COVID-19 fatalities.

But what about Florida?

To answer that question, the Tampa Bay Times teamed up with a health researcher from the University of South Florida to analyze all deaths in the state, not just those certified as COVID-19.

They found that during the 5-week period ending April 25, there had been hundreds of unexpected deaths from illness and disease across Florida, more than can be explained by the coronavirus death count.

The analysis suggests the epidemic’s true toll may be between 17 percent and 58 percent higher than published death figures. Health experts say that likely includes some people who died of coronavirus but were never diagnosed as well as others who might have lived had the pandemic not kept them from getting care.

At the same time, the analysis also showed a drop in deaths from external causes such as homicides and motor-vehicle accidents — presumably because people stayed home to avoid the virus.

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NOW - here's a follow-up article that shows how real news is told
There’s a new theory about Florida, coronavirus and pneumonia deaths. May 29

Somerville said:

I saw a meme online that claimed Florida and other 'red' states were deliberately under-reporting Covid-19 deaths, while the death rate from other causes was above the average from earlier years. Doing a bit of reading, it turns out that it's not only red states that have under-reported Covid-19 deaths but there are other non-political reasons why the cause of death is not always a certainty.

from the Tampa Bay Times


NOW - here's a follow-up article that shows how real news is told
There’s a new theory about Florida, coronavirus and pneumonia deaths. May 29

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When y'all have more than "may" and "theory", let me know.

Until then, this is nothing but speculation and it belongs in the CT forum.

The experts said we could hold COVID-19 deaths down to 75,000 if we sheltered in place.

Trump had to get the economy going so he could get reelected.

Now we have over 100,000 deaths. 25,000 dead for no reason.

Thanks, Trump.

Somerville said:

I saw a meme online that claimed Florida and other 'red' states were deliberately under-reporting Covid-19 deaths, while the death rate from other causes was above the average from earlier years. Doing a bit of reading, it turns out that it's not only red states that have under-reported Covid-19 deaths but there are other non-political reasons why the cause of death is not always a certainty.

from the Tampa Bay Times


NOW - here's a follow-up article that shows how real news is told
There’s a new theory about Florida, coronavirus and pneumonia deaths. May 29

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This:

others who might have lived had the pandemic not kept them from getting care.

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is highly questionable since it relies on speculation (opinion?).

ttwtt78640 said:

This:

others who might have lived had the pandemic not kept them from getting care.

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is highly questionable since it relies on speculation (opinion?).

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The death rate being higher than past death rates is not speculation - the causes for that jump are being examined.

Somerville said:

I saw a meme online that claimed Florida and other 'red' states were deliberately under-reporting Covid-19 deaths, while the death rate from other causes was above the average from earlier years. Doing a bit of reading, it turns out that it's not only red states that have under-reported Covid-19 deaths but there are other non-political reasons why the cause of death is not always a certainty.

from the Tampa Bay Times


NOW - here's a follow-up article that shows how real news is told
There’s a new theory about Florida, coronavirus and pneumonia deaths. May 29

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The headline of your thread is wrong. It is social distancing which has caused hundreds of additional deaths (if not thousands) in Florida since social distancing isn't concerned with saving lives but saving hospital resources. That's why the CDC (and WHO) felt it justified to send Covid patients back into nursing home where the residents were the most at risk to Covid. That action definitely caused deaths but saved on hospital resources since nursing homes are self contained and the need for nursing care finite.

cabse5 said:

The headline of your thread is wrong. It is social distancing which has caused hundreds of additional deaths (if not thousands) in Florida since social distancing isn't concerned with saving lives but saving hospital resources. That's why the CDC (and WHO) felt it justified to send Covid patients back into nursing home where the residents were the most at risk to Covid. That action definitely caused deaths but saved on hospital resources since nursing homes are self contained and the need for nursing care finite.

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Your belief is not supported by facts but that seldom makes a difference with a TRUE BELIEVER

Mycroft said:

When y'all have more than "may" and "theory", let me know.

Until then, this is nothing but speculation and it belongs in the CT forum.

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You should be suspicious of anyone who doesn't say "may" and "theory."

"Definitely" and "must" are the province of religion and propaganda. Not science.

cabse5 said:

The headline of your thread is wrong. It is social distancing which has caused hundreds of additional deaths (if not thousands) in Florida since social distancing isn't concerned with saving lives but saving hospital resources. That's why the CDC (and WHO) felt it justified to send Covid patients back into nursing home where the residents were the most at risk to Covid. That action definitely caused deaths but saved on hospital resources since nursing homes are self contained and the need for nursing care finite.

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How does social distancing cause deaths?

Somerville said:

Your belief is not supported by facts but that seldom makes a difference with a TRUE BELIEVER

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Not facts? Explain why the CDC's policy was to admit Covid patients into nursing homes if the main goal of social distancing was to save lives. I mean, a nursing homes is one institution where the residents are highly susceptible to Covid and the residents can't usually be released from the home from a Covid outbreak. Was the CDC just misinformed? I doubt it. The CDC just wanted to save hospital resources. That was the main goal of social distancing.

Somerville said:

The death rate being higher than past death rates is not speculation - the causes for that jump are being examined.

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The problem is that folks are conflating actions taken by the government with the direct effects of COVID-19. Ordering 'non-essential' medical care treatment to cease was not required - it was done as a precautionary measure to prevent possible lack of ability to "treat" (anticipated?) COVID-19 patients.

Using the "logic" that people who lost employer provided medical care insurance due to government mandated "shutdowns" and thus skipped seeking medical care (for say the flu or diabetes) as COVID-19 related deaths is quite a stretch.

lwf said:

How does social distancing cause deaths?

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Social distancing doesn't segregate those who are asymptomatic and those with slight enough symptoms to Covid to not need a hospital from those who are highly susceptible to Covid. Which means the initial social distancing will kill because the highly susceptible will get it from those who aren't affected by Covid because there aren't enough tests to determine who has Covid and who doesn't.

The only way for social distancing to work is the lockdown type of social distancing. Lockdown social distancing protects everybody after the germination period for Covid has expired. Too bad lockdown social distancing is unsustainable.

As soon as there are any measures to relax lockdown social distancing, the chance for those most susceptible to Covid getting Covid goes up.

Social distancing also looks at preventing cases of Covid spread because social distancing can't protect anyone from Covid except for a lockdown situation.
Since the emphasis is on spread, the crisis will be longer. Since the crisis will be longer and since social distancing will NOT protect anyone from Covid, social distancing will kill more people than other ways to combat Covid.

Social distancing was used to protect hospital resources and not used to protect lives. Deaths will go up due to social distancing.

Note: I'm saying Covid is deadly to certain groups of people and we know those susceptible groups.
I'm also saying social distancing was the wrong method to combat Covid for the US. Social distancing is the absolutely last way to combat any pandemic, IMO, since economies and gov'ts, for examples, are destroyed in the process of using social distancing.
Social distancing might have been appropriate at the first outbreak of Covid when there was no data on Covid and there was the possibility everyone could've been hospitalized with Covid.

lwf said:

You should be suspicious of anyone who doesn't say "may" and "theory."

"Definitely" and "must" are the province of religion and propaganda. Not science.

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Sorry, but I don't accept "facts" that must be taken on faith, anymore than I pay attention to people who speculate.

"Just the facts, Ma'am."

cabse5 said:

Social distancing doesn't segregate those who are asymptomatic and those with slight enough symptoms to Covid to not need a hospital from those who are highly susceptible to Covid. Which means the initial social distancing will kill because the highly susceptible will get it from those who aren't affected by Covid because there aren't enough tests to determine who has Covid and who doesn't.

The only way for social distancing to work is the lockdown type of social distancing. Lockdown social distancing protects everybody after the germination period for Covid has expired. Too bad lockdown social distancing is unsustainable.

As soon as there are any measures to relax lockdown social distancing, the chance for those most susceptible to Covid getting Covid goes up.

Social distancing also looks at preventing cases of Covid spread because social distancing can't protect anyone from Covid except for a lockdown situation.
Since the emphasis is on spread, the crisis will be longer. Since the crisis will be longer and since social distancing will NOT protect anyone from Covid, social distancing will kill more people than other ways to combat Covid.

Social distancing was used to protect hospital resources and not used to protect lives. Deaths will go up due to social distancing.

Note: I'm saying Covid is deadly to certain groups of people and we know those susceptible groups.
I'm also saying social distancing was the wrong method to combat Covid for the US. Social distancing is the absolutely last way to combat any pandemic, IMO, since economies and gov'ts, for examples, are destroyed in the process of using social distancing.
Social distancing might have been appropriate at the first outbreak of Covid when there was no data on Covid and there was the possibility everyone could've been hospitalized with Covid.

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I see what you are saying. Yes social distancing while going about your daily routine causes more deaths than a total and complete lockdown. It causes less deaths than going about your daily routine and not social distancing, however.

Mycroft said:

Sorry, but I don't accept "facts" that must be taken on faith, anymore than I pay attention to people who speculate.

"Just the facts, Ma'am."

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"May" and "theory" from a scientific perspective are not based on faith. They are based on probability. If 99% of a theory corresponds to observable reality, then there is a high probability that it is correct. This doesn't make it any less of a theory, but it also doesn't make it rational to accept an outlier theory that corresponds to that 1% of reality that is missing from the generally accepted theory, but not the 99% of reality that is explained by it as pandemic and climate change deniers do.

swing_voter said:

The experts said we could hold COVID-19 deaths down to 75,000 if we sheltered in place.

Trump had to get the economy going so he could get reelected.

Now we have over 100,000 deaths. 25,000 dead for no reason.

Thanks, Trump.

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No, I would like to thank Cuomo.
How will he defend those lawsuits coming his way for the nursing home deaths.

cabse5 said:

Not facts? Explain why the CDC's policy was to admit Covid patients into nursing homes if the main goal of social distancing was to save lives. I mean, a nursing homes is one institution where the residents are highly susceptible to Covid and the residents can't usually be released from the home from a Covid outbreak. Was the CDC just misinformed? I doubt it. The CDC just wanted to save hospital resources. That was the main goal of social distancing.

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Explain why you believe that it was CDC's policy " to admit Covid patients into nursing homes" Preparing for COVID-19 in Nursing Homes | CDC Updated May 19, 2020

All states have underrated covid and comorbidity-related covid case deaths.

lwf said:

"May" and "theory" from a scientific perspective are not based on faith. They are based on probability. If 99% of a theory corresponds to observable reality, then there is a high probability that it is correct. This doesn't make it any less of a theory, but it also doesn't make it rational to accept an outlier theory that corresponds to that 1% of reality that is missing from the generally accepted theory, but not the 99% of reality that is explained by it as pandemic and climate change deniers do.

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LOL!!

I'm not interested in "probability". Hell, if I was I'd tout every bogus poll I can find as god's truth.

No, I'm interested in reality. Take your "may" and your "theory" and peddle them to some useful idiots.

jamesbyoung said:

All states have underrated covid and comorbidity-related covid case deaths.

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Wrong.

Colorado over counted COVID-19 deaths...until they got caught.

cabse5 said:

Not facts? Explain why the CDC's policy was to admit Covid patients into nursing homes if the main goal of social distancing was to save lives. I mean, a nursing homes is one institution where the residents are highly susceptible to Covid and the residents can't usually be released from the home from a Covid outbreak. Was the CDC just misinformed? I doubt it. The CDC just wanted to save hospital resources. That was the main goal of social distancing.

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I've read the CDC guidelines and you are at best not being fair in your interpretation of the guidance. Here's CMS guidance based on CDC's recommendations.

https://www.cms.gov/files/document/3-13-2020-nursing-home-guidance-covid-19.pdf

And if someone sick with CV19 isn't admitted back to the home, or must be kicked out when diagnosed, the next question is where do these people live, especially in hard hit areas where the nursing home deaths were highest? Maybe in retrospect the feds or states seize a couple of unused hotels and staff them up with skilled nursing home care, and send them to those hotels, but otherwise, there aren't obvious options. Many residents don't have alternatives other than that facility, and those facilities are privately owned, so how do you force some kind of arrangement where one business gets the sick patients, and another keeps those not infected, etc.

So this thing about blaming CDC for nursing home deaths is fine but it's 20/20 hindsight and I'm sure most of the problem is facilities failed to achieve the guidelines because protecting any population that lives closely together is just damn near impossible of the virus is widely spreading in the community. So in Tennessee we had outbreaks in nursing homes mostly in Nashville and Memphis, because that's where we had the biggest outbreaks. In Knoxville, ONE nursing home had more than 1 case, and it had 4 cases, they diagnosed them, contained it, and had one death. My mother in law's place had ONE case, they effectively isolated her, and that was the only case so far. So nursing homes can protect the residents when the case counts are low. It's much harder if you find out 1/4th are sick, THEN try to isolate the remaining residents.

Point is the reason for social distancing is to reduce cases in the community, and where there were low cases in the community, there were FEW bad nursing home outbreaks. When it's running loose in the community, yes, nursing homes got hit hard. But that's because social distancing failed, basically.

cabse5 said:

Social distancing doesn't segregate those who are asymptomatic and those with slight enough symptoms to Covid to not need a hospital from those who are highly susceptible to Covid. Which means the initial social distancing will kill because the highly susceptible will get it from those who aren't affected by Covid because there aren't enough tests to determine who has Covid and who doesn't.

The only way for social distancing to work is the lockdown type of social distancing. Lockdown social distancing protects everybody after the germination period for Covid has expired. Too bad lockdown social distancing is unsustainable.

As soon as there are any measures to relax lockdown social distancing, the chance for those most susceptible to Covid getting Covid goes up.

Social distancing also looks at preventing cases of Covid spread because social distancing can't protect anyone from Covid except for a lockdown situation.
Since the emphasis is on spread, the crisis will be longer. Since the crisis will be longer and since social distancing will NOT protect anyone from Covid, social distancing will kill more people than other ways to combat Covid.

Social distancing was used to protect hospital resources and not used to protect lives. Deaths will go up due to social distancing.

Note: I'm saying Covid is deadly to certain groups of people and we know those susceptible groups.
I'm also saying social distancing was the wrong method to combat Covid for the US. Social distancing is the absolutely last way to combat any pandemic, IMO, since economies and gov'ts, for examples, are destroyed in the process of using social distancing.
Social distancing might have been appropriate at the first outbreak of Covid when there was no data on Covid and there was the possibility everyone could've been hospitalized with Covid.

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Absolutely none of your key conclusions are supported by any evidence I've seen. Furthermore, perhaps it's the "last way" except for all the other options available to us. What could we have done in Mid April other than closures and social distancing? Remember Sweden tried the - let the virus spread approach - and got hammered in their nursing homes. That's not a coincidence, or two unrelated aspects of their approach.

Furthermore in much of the country, social distancing or something else WORKED fabulously. Most cities had mild outbreaks. Knoxville is about 750k in the MSA with about 10-15 total deaths. I can't look at the shutdowns and measures put in place and find anywhere to say those failed in preventing deaths and disease related to CV19. We were spared here, and our mayor acted really early, way before we had any serious problem.

Finally, the economy was going to crash with or without government shutdowns, because the public didn't feel SAFE going out when we could read the news and see what was happening in Italy and NYC and elsewhere. Who is going to go to a basketball game with 20,000 of their closest friends, when the guy next to him could have CV19, infect them and kill them? Same with restaurants, and movies, and travel on confined planes, and large conventions and training and sales meetings and all the rest.

Mycroft said:

LOL!!

I'm not interested in "probability". Hell, if I was I'd tout every bogus poll I can find as god's truth.

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That's kind of funny. The problem with polls isn't the poll. They show who answered a series of questions a certain way. The problem is that extrapolating polls to the population is difficult because of the difficulty in getting a random sample, perfectly distributed geographically and demographically. And people often misunderstand what polls actually show.

But the other issue is if you dismiss all polls because they are "theory" or some other silly reason, then you've just decided that you cannot ever have any damn idea what the public feels about anything at all, and so society must remain totally ignorant in every respect about public opinion.

How is that better? I will wallow in ignorance because I cannot trust the ONLY way to determine public opinion, therefore I will assume we cannot know ANYTHING about public opinion, because polling isn't a foolproof exercise! :roll:

No, I'm interested in reality. Take your "may" and your "theory" and peddle them to some useful idiots.

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LOL, thus proving his point. Beautiful!!

Just for example, evolution (the broad explanation) is just a theory. What's the alternative to explain life and how it evolved? If there is none, and there isn't, then dismissing evolution because it's a theory is to prefer ignorance versus a theory that DOES explain much of our world. So the "useful idiots" are the ones who read "theory" or "may" and then dismiss what follows. Heck, I'd guess the VAST majority of convictions for violent crimes are in this view only "theory." Did the jurors SEE the defendant shoot the victim? No, they heard testimony from people who sometimes lie, and reviewed evidence that tied the shooter, but the standard isn't "proof" but beyond a reasonable doubt. Anything short of absolutely certain is "theory" and yet you'd dismiss all those convictions, I guess.... Weird.

Mycroft said:

Wrong.

Colorado over counted COVID-19 deaths...until they got caught.

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Proof of that?

There's evidence some cases counted as COVID 19 weren't but you'd have to know how every person in Colorado died during the relevant period, accurately identify every single case of someone dying from COVID, then compare that total to the number of recorded cases, and show us the difference. So please, since you don't accept "theory," exactly how many people in Colorado died of COVID 19. I don't want an estimate - aka a "theory" - but just the facts.

So can you fill in the blanks?

Actual number of COVID 19 deaths as of some specific date? ____________
Number recorded by the state as of that date? _______________
Difference_____________

We'll await your non-theoretical answer!

Mycroft said:

LOL!!

I'm not interested in "probability". Hell, if I was I'd tout every bogus poll I can find as god's truth.

No, I'm interested in reality. Take your "may" and your "theory" and peddle them to some useful idiots.

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It doesn't surprise me that you accept confident assurances over empirical science. You do support Trump after all.