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Possible new way to predict covid 19 outbreaks through testing the sewage in cities.

Peter King

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Sewage monitoring as an early warning system for Corona infections

29 May 2020

The emerging questions of the past weeks are: How does the concentration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in sewage water relate to the number of hospital admissions? And can we use sewage surveillance to assess the degree of contamination among the population?

Now that several countries are easing the lockdown measures around COVID-19, it is important to set up a proper monitoring system so that the government can intervene as soon as the level of infection among the population rises again. Sewage research may be an efficient method to indicate changes in the degree of infection among the population.
Corona monitoring in sewage

Via the stools of infected people, the virus enters the sewers. Since 6 February, KWR has been measuring the concentration of RNA from SARS-CoV2 (the causative agent of COVID-19) in sewage water in various cities. As can be seen in the graph for the city of Amsterdam, we are measuring a rapidly increasing concentration in the sewage water in March. This is entirely in line with the rapidly rising line of hospital admissions. With the introduction of the lockdown, we see a flattening and then a drop in the curve. This indicates that there are fewer infections, which is confirmed by the RIVM figures.

Sewage research as a monitoring system in the exit strategy

Now that the population is getting more freedom of movement again, the risk of infection is also increasing. How do we make sure we get an early warning? Based on Gert Jan Medema’s research, several countries (including the Netherlands and England) are considering using sewage monitoring. Firstly, because there are indications that we can detect the virus in the sewage water sooner rather than patients reporting sick. Secondly, because not everyone who is infected actually feels sick and is tested. Third, because there seems to be a correlation between the concentration of RNA measured in sewage water and the level of infection among the population.

In the meantime, Medema says, a European initiative is underway to coordinate the monitoring and testing of sewage water in a hundred cities.

Sewage monitoring as an early warning system for corona - KWR

Another good tool to use to predict problems in cities when the lockdown is being lifted without testing hundreds of thousands of people. Use their poop instead to give an early indicator and then confirm it with testing on potential patients.
 
You would end up with no data from most rural areas.
 
You would end up with no data from most rural areas.

That is a problem that is not as much as an issue, still needs to be addressed by vigorous testing, but close contact with other people (like in cities/big factories) is a bigger risk for covid than a farmer living on his farm with nobody in the close vicinity.
 
That is a problem that is not as much as an issue, still needs to be addressed by vigorous testing, but close contact with other people (like in cities/big factories) is a bigger risk for covid than a farmer living on his farm with nobody in the close vicinity.

There are surely thousands of houses in close proximity to my city that are on septic systems still whose residents come and go into the city on a daily basis. One of my sisters lives only 1.5 miles from the city limits and is on well and septic as are most of the people in her neighborhood that was built before the county had any sewage deal with the city.
 
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