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Down to 500 Deaths a Day Nationally. And For This We are Shutting Down the Country?

I don't have a dog in this hunt...BUT for the record here is my latest graph from Worldometers dataset:

Covid Deaths Daily 5-28.jpg

- As of this writing, the 7 day moving average of the daily rate of death is about 1,000, which is less than 1/2 the peak of 2200 one month ago.

- The red-dashed line is the current linear trend line from the peak of the moving average to present, extrapolated forward.

- Because COVID death reporting is weekly cyclical the ONLY statistic worth noting is that of the 7-day moving average. (Tuesday, Wed, and Thursday usually being the peak days).

- The "plus" signs are the actual data points for each day, which obviously fluctuates - again, the 7-day average smooths this natural cycle out.

IF trends hold, by June 1st the moving average will be down to 800 deaths per day, and falling.

I do not believe, nor does the IHME it would seem, believe that this overall decline will be countered by hotspots in other states.
 
I don't have a dog in this hunt...BUT for the record here is my latest graph from Worldometers dataset:

View attachment 67281887

- As of this writing, the 7 day moving average of the daily rate of death is about 1,000, which is less than 1/2 the peak of 2200 one month ago.

- The red-dashed line is the current linear trend line from the peak of the moving average to present, extrapolated forward.

- Because COVID death reporting is weekly cyclical the ONLY statistic worth noting is that of the 7-day moving average. (Tuesday, Wed, and Thursday usually being the peak days).

- The "plus" signs are the actual data points for each day, which obviously fluctuates - again, the 7-day average smooths this natural cycle out.

IF trends hold, by June 1st the moving average will be down to 800 deaths per day, and falling.

I do not believe, nor does the IHME it would seem, believe that this overall decline will be countered by hotspots in other states.

This thing, if it was ever real, is falling like a rock. And that has the leftwingers VERY upset
 
Poor old Mashmont loses yet again.
 
This thing, if it was ever real, is falling like a rock. And that has the leftwingers VERY upset

Only someone devoid of all logic would say "if it was ever real".

40zhbb.jpg
 
Only someone devoid of all logic would say "if it was ever real".

View attachment 67281906

The leftwing hype was and is fake. Cases and deaths are dropping like a rock, yet blue states are stepping up restrictions like my state is. There is no danger to anyone but old people with conditions.
 
The leftwing hype was and is fake. Cases and deaths are dropping like a rock, yet blue states are stepping up restrictions like my state is. There is no danger to anyone but old people with conditions.

Those i the blue states haven't yet figured this out...........um,old people die.
 
I'm not going to debate this with you. You are not influenced by scientific study and only want to believe what you already decided is true.

Mind telling me exactly how 500,000 plus people could come here from Wuhan and other parts of China from 11-17 to 2-1 and not infect ONE American?

Are you really suggesting that when a doctor puts down "Death with Covid in his system" that Dr is asking where that particular strain came from? Does he take a little sample out and say "Yep, this one here looks British too me"? Cuomo was spouting this same nonsense the other day. It was like the Cuomo brothers "Dumb ad Dumber" shtick.

STOP it please. I beg you. Stop listening to these idiots. The same kind that convinced you that Trump colluded. For your mental health, use logic and common sense.
 
The leftwing hype was and is fake. Cases and deaths are dropping like a rock, yet blue states are stepping up restrictions like my state is. There is no danger to anyone but old people with conditions.

When in a hole, stop digging.
 
I don't have a dog in this hunt...BUT for the record here is my latest graph from Worldometers dataset:

View attachment 67281887

- As of this writing, the 7 day moving average of the daily rate of death is about 1,000, which is less than 1/2 the peak of 2200 one month ago.

- The red-dashed line is the current linear trend line from the peak of the moving average to present, extrapolated forward.

- Because COVID death reporting is weekly cyclical the ONLY statistic worth noting is that of the 7-day moving average. (Tuesday, Wed, and Thursday usually being the peak days).

- The "plus" signs are the actual data points for each day, which obviously fluctuates - again, the 7-day average smooths this natural cycle out.

IF trends hold, by June 1st the moving average will be down to 800 deaths per day, and falling.

I do not believe, nor does the IHME it would seem, believe that this overall decline will be countered by hotspots in other states.

Hi!

My own data, though processed through a different method, agrees well with your graph. A 7 day moving average certainly presents the best option I can see for smoothing the curve and indicating the trend.

It's also noted that there is a response time between a change which affects the spread of the disease and a change in the slope of the curve. The next two months will be critical in that respect as standards are relaxed. I look forward to seeing you post your chart as we go into the summer.

Regards, stay safe 'n well.
 
So you're telling me, that because they're old, their lives have no value?

You've been listening to Trump.

The death of an old man is NEVER a tragedy, simple wisdom and truth pointed out by Virginia Madsen's character in Prairie Home Companion.
 
I cited my source like three times. Are you blind? But maybe it’s best you steer clear of numbers. They can be difficult for you.

He is not blind, he is simply in denial.
 
Mind telling me exactly how 500,000 plus people could come here from Wuhan and other parts of China from 11-17 to 2-1 and not infect ONE American?

Are you really suggesting that when a doctor puts down "Death with Covid in his system" that Dr is asking where that particular strain came from? Does he take a little sample out and say "Yep, this one here looks British too me"? Cuomo was spouting this same nonsense the other day. It was like the Cuomo brothers "Dumb ad Dumber" shtick.

STOP it please. I beg you. Stop listening to these idiots. The same kind that convinced you that Trump colluded. For your mental health, use logic and common sense.

The examiners ran DNA tests on samples of the virus to determine origins. The consensus was that the strain that hit NYC was primarily from Europe and likely Italy based on Italy's struggles early on.

America was hit with COVID-19 from two continents, studies suggest | Daily Mail Online
 
Ladies and gentlemen, America is now down to an average of 509 deaths, allegedly from COVID-19 per day for the past three days. Extrapolating current statistics, of that 509, only 125 are under age 70. Of that 125, only 21 are under 70 and have no preexisting conditions. And this is assuming you believe the already-inflated government numbers, which I do not.

We shut down America, forced everybody to wear masks, cost the economy trillions of dollars, lost millions of jobs........all for 21 people.

The goal posts have been moved by the left. Thresholds of decreasing cases and deaths have been reached, yet leftwing governors are STEPPING UP restrictions. In my state, our Democrat governor beginning tomorrow will require masks in every indoor business and government building. This is AFTER new cases have dropped over a two-week period as the guideline for reopening business as laid out by the administration.

This PURELY POLITICAL. I haven't worn a mask, and I'm not about to start. I'll go wherever I've gone before, and I'll make them try to stop me. Got my phone cam at the ready.

THERE IS NO CRISIS and NEVER WAS. It's time to stand up and be counted.

Eric Trump was 100% correct. This story will suddenly vanish after election day, but it will be front and center until then. The leftwing media is once again LYING to us, as they have for five years in all matters relating to President Trump.

U.S. County Coronavirus (COVID-19) Interactive Map and Tracker
73% of Americans Hospitalised With COVID-19 Had an Underlying Condition, Says CDC
Covid Targets the Elderly. Why Don’t Our Prevention Efforts?
Eric Trump: Coronavirus will disappear after election day - Business Insider

You're a little late. It's been shut down for 2 months.
Each sports organization shut itself down.
Each college shut themselves down.
Governors of each state decided for themselves to shutdown or not. Not all did.

Those extreme measures is how we got down to where we are today.

This isn't rocket science. A little common sense goes a long long way.
 
if we shut down the country for every death due to some contagious disease, we would have no country.

I've never made the argument, nor have I heard anyone ever make the argument, that we should shut down the country for every single death caused by a contagious disease.

Surely you don't mean to suggest that anyone believes what you're saying?
 
You're a little late. It's been shut down for 2 months.
Each sports organization shut itself down.
Each college shut themselves down.
Governors of each state decided for themselves to shutdown or not. Not all did.

Those extreme measures is how we got down to where we are today.

This isn't rocket science. A little common sense goes a long long way.

That's unprovable nonsense, the same as the ozone hole people's claim that banning aerosols closed the hole
 
You're a little late. It's been shut down for 2 months.
Each sports organization shut itself down.
Each college shut themselves down.
Governors of each state decided for themselves to shutdown or not. Not all did.

Those extreme measures is how we got down to where we are today.

This isn't rocket science. A little common sense goes a long long way.

Do you understand that all those decisions you mention were made under duress and with inaccurate/bad information? Can sensible decisions be made with inaccurate information?
 
The examiners ran DNA tests on samples of the virus to determine origins. The consensus was that the strain that hit NYC was primarily from Europe and likely Italy based on Italy's struggles early on.

America was hit with COVID-19 from two continents, studies suggest | Daily Mail Online

This is the same BS study that the left has been promoting for some sick point that China isn't to blame. The test wasn't large enough, isn't ongoing, wasn't done in November, December and January and doesn't account for the 500,000 people who came here from China to the US, primarily New York. I have gone over this on numerous Occasions in other posts many weeks ago. The premise is moronic that people weren't infected well before February and that even though a least a half million people flew here directly from China, most f the people who were infected gt it from Europe.

What is the point you leftists are trying to make with this garbage? That China isn't to blame? What?
 
This is the same BS study that the left has been promoting for some sick point that China isn't to blame. The test wasn't large enough, isn't ongoing, wasn't done in November, December and January and doesn't account for the 500,000 people who came here from China to the US, primarily New York. I have gone over this on numerous Occasions in other posts many weeks ago. The premise is moronic that people weren't infected well before February and that even though a least a half million people flew here directly from China, most f the people who were infected gt it from Europe.

What is the point you leftists are trying to make with this garbage? That China isn't to blame? What?
Why are you calling me a leftist? You said:
Are you really suggesting that when a doctor puts down "Death with Covid in his system" that Dr is asking where that particular strain came from? Does he take a little sample out and say "Yep, this one here looks British too me"? Cuomo was spouting this same nonsense the other day. It was like the Cuomo brothers "Dumb ad Dumber" shtick.
I explained where it came from. I do not read all your posts, so I had no idea you have already spoken against the source.

Irony: You point out that Cuomo is making assumptions, and then you jump on me based on assumptions you made.
 
Why are you calling me a leftist? You said:
I explained where it came from. I do not read all your posts, so I had no idea you have already spoken against the source.

Irony: You point out that Cuomo is making assumptions, and then you jump on me based on assumptions you made.

I just don't get why this study has any relevance except to the left. Cuomo is to blame for many deaths, including his handling of nursing homes, as well as DeBlasio and Pelosi and many others in New York for being caught in not reacting swiftly to the fact that this virus came from China and anyone who kept up on the details knew it started in November and NOT February. Cuomo and other leaders are trying to indoctrinate people into believing it didn't get here until February and it was from Europe.
 
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I just don't get why this study has any relevance except to the left. Cuomo is to blame for many of them, as well as DeBlasio and Pelosi and many others in New York for being caught in not reacting swiftly to the fact that this virus came from China and anyone who kept up on the details knew it started in November and NOT February. Cuomo and other leaders are trying to indoctrinate people into believing it didn't get here until February and it was from Europe.
Keep in mind that testing was not widely available until April. That to me is the bigger issue.
 
Do you understand that all those decisions you mention were made under duress and with inaccurate/bad information? Can sensible decisions be made with inaccurate information?

Do you understand France, Italy, Spain, UK, did the same thing. From their gov'ts.

Do you understand, sports leagues all over the world shut down on their own accord.

Deaths were so high in certain areas the whole world shut down. How's that bad information. Common sense.
 
Keep in mind that testing was not widely available until April. That to me is the bigger issue.

All the more reason that the study is/was worthless. You aren't the first one to bring this same study up. By that time, yes.....it was possible that the strain that came fro Europe was in the mix. Before this time, however, there were still hundreds of thousands of people who flew DIRECTLY to New York from Wuhan, the epicenter.
 
That's unprovable nonsense, the same as the ozone hole people's claim that banning aerosols closed the hole

You don't understand basics of knowledge, so it seems.
Did the ozone hole shrink?

TECH & SCIENCE
NASA: Hole in Earth's Ozone Layer Finally Closing Up Because Humans Did Something About It
BY SYDNEY PEREIRA ON 1/5/18 AT 11:53 AM EST
NASA: Hole in Earth's Ozone Layer Finally Closing Up Because Humans Did Something About It

Where does your knowledge of science come from?
 
Ladies and gentlemen, America is now down to an average of 509 deaths, allegedly from COVID-19 per day for the past three days. Extrapolating current statistics, of that 509, only 125 are under age 70. Of that 125, only 21 are under 70 and have no preexisting conditions. And this is assuming you believe the already-inflated government numbers, which I do not.

We shut down America, forced everybody to wear masks, cost the economy trillions of dollars, lost millions of jobs........all for 21 people.

The goal posts have been moved by the left. Thresholds of decreasing cases and deaths have been reached, yet leftwing governors are STEPPING UP restrictions. In my state, our Democrat governor beginning tomorrow will require masks in every indoor business and government building. This is AFTER new cases have dropped over a two-week period as the guideline for reopening business as laid out by the administration.

This PURELY POLITICAL. I haven't worn a mask, and I'm not about to start. I'll go wherever I've gone before, and I'll make them try to stop me. Got my phone cam at the ready.

THERE IS NO CRISIS and NEVER WAS. It's time to stand up and be counted.

Eric Trump was 100% correct. This story will suddenly vanish after election day, but it will be front and center until then. The leftwing media is once again LYING to us, as they have for five years in all matters relating to President Trump.

U.S. County Coronavirus (COVID-19) Interactive Map and Tracker
73% of Americans Hospitalised With COVID-19 Had an Underlying Condition, Says CDC
Covid Targets the Elderly. Why Don’t Our Prevention Efforts?
Eric Trump: Coronavirus will disappear after election day - Business Insider

Oh look mashmont cant math.
 
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