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CDC Current Best Estimate of Covid-19 Morbidity Rate is 0.4%

Bucky said:
I have always been problematic with how overblown the attention this virus has received. I have a friend for example that lives in the Philippines. His friend got the virus and was cured. There is a clinic in Manila, which provides an injection that has helped many people.

My point is, this COVID-19 is no cancer, no HIV. We have things contained.
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What are they injecting? Hopefully some leftist won't snark lysol, serious question!
 
GhostlyJoe said:
Literally the data I've been referencing. Let's start with this. The demographics and virus data on the Princess Cruise line, even back at the beginning of this, implied a much lower mortality rate than what was being reported.
We've known that the virus was around .5 mortality.
Here's an opinion piece from March -- not a right-wing rag. Actual experts recognizing how unclear the picture was.
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Data informs decisions

You look at data to see if it meets the specified criteria
When you look at the data, you believe the data does not meet the criteria to justify the shutdown.
What are the criteria which the data do not meet?


Was the contagion rate too low? Should it have been X but it was only 0.8X?

Was the number of deaths too low?

Is the rate of hospitalizations Y% but it needs to be Z% instead?


###

and what about that standards of proof question?
What is your standard of proof when it comes to justifying shutdowns during a pandemic?
beyond a reasonable doubt?
a preponderance of evidence?
abundance of caution/ better safe than sorry?
or something else?
 
HennyBogan said:
How many Americans has each flu / strain killed before "herd immunity was reached"? And how many years did it take to reach that "herd immunity point"?
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no clue.

go ahead and make you argument and we can look up the numbers later


Unless you know already.
If you know the answers, feel free to go ahead and supply them.

We clocked 100k in a couple months give or take.

covid should be able to hit 900k dead Americans w/i a couple of years
 
Captain Adverse said:
Yes folks, this from CNN 05/26/20:
CDC says 35% of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic - CNN

The source?
COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC

So wow, only 0.4%!!! NOT 4% or higher...just 0.4%. Good news, right folks? (Not like I haven't been suggesting this in other threads well before).
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I posted this a few days ago and got crickets. Evidently, proof that the shutdown was unnecessary is not interesting.

BTW, that's 0.4% of those with symptoms. If you include the asymptomatic cases, it works out 0.26%.
 
Jay59 said:
I posted this a few days ago and got crickets. Evidently, proof that the shutdown was unnecessary is not interesting.
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I'll bet it was necessary for those who might have died without it.
 
Simon W. Moon said:
Data informs decisions

You look at data to see if it meets the specified criteria
When you look at the data, you believe the data does not meet the criteria to justify the shutdown.
What are the criteria which the data do not meet?


Was the contagion rate too low? Should it have been X but it was only 0.8X?

Was the number of deaths too low?

Is the rate of hospitalizations Y% but it needs to be Z% instead?


###

and what about that standards of proof question?
What is your standard of proof when it comes to justifying shutdowns during a pandemic?
beyond a reasonable doubt?
a preponderance of evidence?
abundance of caution/ better safe than sorry?
or something else?
Click to expand...

OK ... no shutdowns unless a pathogen is proven to be twice as virulent as the common flu and has a real-world death rate of at least 20%.

Or better yet, no lockdowns ever unless we are in an active state of war on our own soil.

Now, you tell me exactly how bad a pathogen must be to give up my rights for your safety.
 
Helix said:
fake news. i don't want anyone to catch it, even COVIDiots. i was offering a solution for them to fulfill their desire to lick doorknobs at b dubs for a month without putting the rest of us at risk. i stand by this potential solution.



thanks for sharing that wrong. however, i'm not sure that it is entertaining enough for me to continue participating for more than a few posts. if you'd like to discuss the logistics of the Wyoming wall, i can maybe do a couple posts on that.
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I have no desire to entertain your diseased gulag fantasies filled with political dissidents.
 
What if...? said:
How about this:

One of the reasons we require people to wear pants in public is to keep your dirty asshole off the chairs.

Don't rub your asshole on the air other people breathe.

Wear your ****ing mask.
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Dude, stay in your home if you're scared of me breathing.

Honestly, you people are scary. DO AS I SAY!!!!
 
Lord Tammerlain said:
Using unrelated stats to determine relationships makes for crappy data. All your examples are unrelated and nonsensical
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Your math is truly idiotic since you assume it is known how many people have been infected by covid-19,when that is unknown.

That you WANT millions of Americans to die doesn't make that a fact. Stupid math doesn't make it a fact.

No one in my family, no one at the company, and no one we know has been died of covid-19. Therefore, the lethality rate is 0%. No one in my family, no one at the company and no one we know has been infected by covid-19 as far as is known. So therefore the infection rate also is 0% too.

0% infection rate. 0% lethality rate. That is how YOUR math is calculated.
 
Torus34 said:
Let's see ...

As of today the US has a reported [Worldometer(r)] total of COVID-assigned deaths of 100,572.

The virus mortality rate is 0.4%

So the number of those in the US who have actually been infected by the virus, including those who have not been reported, is:

(100,572 x 100)/0.004 = 2,514,300,000.

Golly gee whiz, Mr. Science! Ain't mathematics fascinating?

Regards to all. Stay safe 'n well.
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Yes it is, depends though on who crunches the numbers!
 
I've been suspecting this percentage for a while now, as all of the evidence from serological testing has shown that many, many cases are gone unconfirmed in countries with large populations. No matter how much testing you have, it's just impossible to keep up. Combine these serological findings with data collected from small, rich countries (presumably able to keep up with PCR testing due to smaller populations) and I became convinced that the true infection fatality rate was below 1%. It's very reassuring to see the CDC release these estimates, it feels like 0.5% could be an upper bound IFR.

Having said all this, I still think a some degree of mitigation is reasonable for societies: Doing the math, if 60% of people need immunity to achieve herd immunity, at 0.5% deadly that still amounts to around 1 million dead if left to run it's course unfettered, and 60% is a low estimate for herd immunity as I understand.

Still, this is great news!
 
GhostlyJoe said:
Dude, stay in your home if you're scared of me breathing.

Honestly, you people are scary. DO AS I SAY!!!!
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That's not entirely accurate. He will be safe if he goes and hangs out in a WalMart store with another thousand people because no one can get infected there according to the government. Just stay out of mom and pop stores that no one is in other than the owner. You go into a small clothing store with no customers and you will infect hundreds of people and be infected yourself.
 
avatar said:
Sounded like you were having a panic attack. or at least a punctuation and grammar attack. Go a bit more slowly and it will all come back to you.
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Nope, I was just pointing out how idiotic your post was.
 
joko104 said:
That's not entirely accurate. He will be safe if he goes and hangs out in a WalMart store with another thousand people because no one can get infected there according to the government. Just stay out of mom and pop stores that no one is in other than the owner. You go into a small clothing store with no customers and you will infect hundreds of people and be infected yourself.
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Boy howdy! That's science!
 
GhostlyJoe said:
If you believe in absolute preservation of life, you would never drive a car again.
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^ That is how non Christians justify a ton of deaths from a new and deadly virus.


I bet some republicans here have lost family members and are no longer posting. Or just died themselves.
 
Torus34 said:
Let's see ...

As of today the US has a reported [Worldometer(r)] total of COVID-assigned deaths of 100,572.

The virus mortality rate is 0.4%

So the number of those in the US who have actually been infected by the virus, including those who have not been reported, is:

(100,572 x 100)/0.004 = 2,514,300,000.

Golly gee whiz, Mr. Science! Ain't mathematics fascinating?

Regards to all. Stay safe 'n well.
Click to expand...

You've made a ghastly error in your calculations... it should be either 100,572/0.004 or (100,572 x 100)/0.4 otherwise you are applying a multiplier of 100 twice, kind sir.

The true number of expected infections under according to this CDC estimate is actually around 25,000,000
 
CaughtInThe said:
^ That is how non Christians justify a ton of deaths from a new and deadly virus.


I bet some republicans here have lost family members and are no longer posting. Or just died themselves.
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Huh? Christians?

Did you have a stroke?
 
fireflygmf said:
You've made a ghastly error in your calculations... it should be either 100,572/0.004 or (100,572 x 100)/0.4 otherwise you are applying a multiplier of 100 twice, kind sir.

The true number of expected infections under according to this CDC estimate is actually around 25,000,000
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Bingo! A real maths whiz wasn't he?
 
GhostlyJoe said:
Dude, stay in your home if you're scared of me breathing.

Honestly, you people are scary. DO AS I SAY!!!!
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Well, you can't come to my house ever.

My upholstery is difficult to clean.

And a mask does nothing to protect me.

My mask protects you. It is a sign of respect for my fellow man.

I could be contagious and not know it. So I wear a mask in public. So I don't put others at risk.

And I go about my business, have the whole time.

And I am at high risk for hospitalization.

So save the "scaredy cat" rhetoric.

You would be mortified if I whipped my dick out and plopped it in your salad.

And you know it.
 
In China, 79.9% of covid-19 infections occurred in people's homes. Nearly all the rest were in mass transit. Only ONE person contracted covid-19 in an outdoor setting.
Indoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2 | medRxiv

THEREFORE, it was concluded in the USA that everyone needs to be in their homes and the beaches must be ordered closed and outlawed going fishing? Yet that is exactly what they did - when in fact if you are out fishing it is impossible for you to infect anyone or be infected. This is about getting people infected with covid-19, not limiting infections - and has been from the start.

I have often stated the government orders are NOT to contain covid-19, but to get as many people infected as possible - and studies prove that is exactly what is happening. All the rules to stay home, shop only at mega stores with gobs of people, homemade masks, and 6 foot distancing has always been absurd and just to force submission - while serving the real money and power goals of the richest and most powerful people on earth. They made you your servants, serfs and slaves. Via ownership of all info outlets, they got most of you to willingly destroy the quality of your own life and that of your loved ones - for them.

The government - on the advice of the experts selected by the wealthiest and most powerful people on earth - the rich profiting to the trillions and grabbing massive power - made orders to maximize the number of people infected with covid-19. That doesn't mean that is the goal of the politicians. It just means they will do exactly what the richest people on earth tell them to do - just like nearly all of you will.

If TV experts and talking heads of the super rich ordered you wear your underwear on the outside of your clothing (borrowing from a Woody Allen movie) or you will contract covid-19 and (worse) infect others, 99% of progressive Democrats and 80% of the American public would be wearing their underwear on the outside of their clothing .- and ranting furiously at anyone who isn't.
 
What if...? said:
Well, you can't come to my house ever.

My upholstery is difficult to clean.

And a mask does nothing to protect me.

My mask protects you. It is a sign of respect for my fellow man.

I could be contagious and not know it. So I wear a mask in public. So I don't put others at risk.

And I go about my business, have the whole time.

And I am at high risk for hospitalization.

So save the "scaredy cat" rhetoric.

You would be mortified if I whipped my dick out and plopped it in your salad.

And you know it.
Click to expand...

That's... graphic.
 
Simon W. Moon said:
no clue.

go ahead and make you argument and we can look up the numbers later


Unless you know already.
If you know the answers, feel free to go ahead and supply them.

We clocked 100k in a couple months give or take.

covid should be able to hit 900k dead Americans w/i a couple of years
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Possible over 4 or 5 years, judging by numbers it could be 4 or 5 times deadlier than flu strains, I have no idea whether herd immunity is reached at all with flu strains.
 
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