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CDC Current Best Estimate of Covid-19 Morbidity Rate is 0.4%

Captain Adverse

Captain Adverse

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Yes folks, this from CNN 05/26/20:

In new guidance for mathematical modelers and public health officials, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is estimating that about a third of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic. The CDC also says its "best estimate" is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms and have Covid-19 will die, and the agency estimates that 40% of coronavirus transmission is occurring before people feel sick.
Click to expand...
CDC says 35% of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic - CNN

The source?

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC

So wow, only 0.4%!!! NOT 4% or higher...just 0.4%.

Good news, right folks? (Not like I haven't been suggesting this in other threads well before).
 
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I suspect that suddenly nobody will want to discuss science, data, or facts.
 
Captain Adverse said:
Yes folks, this from CNN 05/26/20:
CDC says 35% of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic - CNN
The source?
COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC
So wow, only 0.4%!!! NOT 4% or higher...just 0.4%.
Good news, right folks?
Click to expand...
Things can always be worse.
It's always good things aren't worse.

0.4% means that when we reach 70% infection rate and "herd immunity"
we will have 900,000 dead Americans

Does this mean we can all agree this is more serious than the flu now?
 
Captain Adverse said:
Yes folks, this from CNN 05/26/20:

CDC says 35% of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic - CNN

The source?

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC

So wow, only 0.4%!!! NOT 4% or higher...just 0.4%.

Good news, right folks? (Not like I haven't been suggesting this in other threads well before).
Click to expand...
Well, this could be problematic:

Bergstrom, an expert in modeling and computer simulations, said the numbers seemed inconsistent with real-world findings.

"Estimates of the numbers infected in places like NYC are way out of line with these estimates. Let us remember that the number of deaths in NYC right now are far more than we would expect if every adult and child in the city had been infected with a flu-like virus. This is not the flu. It is COVID," Bergstrom said.
Click to expand...
So it seems the CDC number is not borne out in the real world. Using the CDC number for NY, it extrapolates more infections than the entire population.

Yeah, there's a problem here. A big one.

The question becomes,

"Why is the CDC doing this?"
 
Chomsky said:
Well, this could be problematic:

So it seems the CDC number is not borne out in the real world. Using the CDC number for NY, it extrapolates more infections than the entire population.

Yeah, there's a problem here. A big one.

The question becomes,

"Why is the CDC doing this?"
Click to expand...

I have always been problematic with how overblown the attention this virus has received. I have a friend for example that lives in the Philippines. His friend got the virus and was cured. There is a clinic in Manila, which provides an injection that has helped many people.

My point is, this COVID-19 is no cancer, no HIV. We have things contained.
 
Chomsky said:
Well, this could be problematic:

So it seems the CDC number is not borne out in the real world. Using the CDC number for NY, it extrapolates more infections than the entire population.

Yeah, there's a problem here. A big one.

The question becomes,

"Why is the CDC doing this?"
Click to expand...

Nobody suggested that the deaths will be geographically uniform. We are already seeing NY vs. other city disparities. Your odds of dying by a shark bite are much higher in a coastal city than Iowa. We just have to sort out what NYC's beaches are extra sandy when it comes to the COVID shark.
 
Bucky said:
I have always been problematic with how overblown the attention this virus has received. I have a friend for example that lives in the Philippines. His friend got the virus and was cured. There is a clinic in Manila, which provides an injection that has helped many people.

My point is, this COVID-19 is no cancer, no HIV. We have things contained.
Click to expand...

:roll: Right!

You have a friend in the PI who has a friend who had COVID-19 and was injected with something by a "doctor" whose name you don't know working a clinic you don't know and your friend's friend was cured as a result. Therefore, "We have things contained."

That's some pretty impressive logic you are using there, Bucky. Captain Adverse must be honored to have your support.
 
Risky Thicket said:
:roll: Right!

You have a friend in the PI who has a friend who had COVID-19 and was injected with something by a "doctor" whose name you don't know working a clinic you don't know and your friend's friend was cured as a result. Therefore, "We have things contained."

That's some pretty impressive logic you are using there, Bucky. Captain Adverse must be honored to have your support.
Click to expand...

It is the The Fabunan vaccine.
 
Simon W. Moon said:
Things can always be worse.
It's always good things aren't worse.

0.4% means that when we reach 70% infection rate and "herd immunity"
we will have 900,000 dead Americans

Does this mean we can all agree this is more serious than the flu now?
Click to expand...
Sure, but not as serious as obesity, which claims 300,000 Americans every year and we do nothing about it.
 
Wayne Jr said:
Sure, but not as serious as obesity, which claims 300,000 Americans every year and we do nothing about it.
Click to expand...

A different subject and generally controlled by the individual.
 
jamesbyoung said:
A different subject and generally controlled by the individual.
Click to expand...

Most consider covid-19 to be about saving lives. If you aren't one of those people, then it's ok to just keep scrolling. If you are one of those people interested in saving lives, then obesity comes before covid-19.
 
jamesbyoung said:
A low ball estimate, Trump does not accept CDC, so we will move on.
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The President is not nearly as powerful as you think. If Trump had his way then covid-19 wouldn't have even made the news, let alone the suppression of the economy.
 
Wayne Jr said:
Most consider covid-19 to be about saving lives. If you aren't one of those people, then it's ok to just keep scrolling. If you are one of those people interested in saving lives, then obesity comes before covid-19.
Click to expand...

non sequitur but keep trying
 
Simon W. Moon said:
Things can always be worse.
It's always good things aren't worse.

0.4% means that when we reach 70% infection rate and "herd immunity"
we will have 900,000 dead Americans

Does this mean we can all agree this is more serious than the flu now?
Click to expand...

Not really. as you are talking about a number out of 330 million people. Look back to the 1918 Spanish Flu (which is now our "annual" Flu):

From 04/20/20

Captain Adverse said:
Really? Hmmm :think:

Did you know that the first Influenza epidemic in 1918 killed 675,000 out of a population of 103.2 million people in the USA alone, and worldwide at least 50 million? History of 1918 Flu Pandemic | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC

You also overlook the fact that the Flu is still with us, killing anywhere between 12000 - 80000 people per year in the USA alone. [EDIT: CDC has "downgraded the 80000 figure to 61000 recently]

So no, this is not quite "more deadly than Influenza." We have yet to see the full extent, but then again we have larger world populations than back in 1918. Worse, there are all sorts of improvements in the routes, air, land, and sea that human vectors can use to keep spreading it around.
Click to expand...
 
42% of all the virus deaths in the US are within a 60 mile radius of NYC.

So much for "sanctuary city".
 
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Chomsky said:
Well, this could be problematic:

So it seems the CDC number is not borne out in the real world. Using the CDC number for NY, it extrapolates more infections than the entire population.

Yeah, there's a problem here. A big one.

The question becomes,

"Why is the CDC doing this?"
Click to expand...

IMO? They are doing this because they are trying to bring people back to a sense of reality. Back from the brink of ongoing panic that the MSM and others have been stirring up for (IMHO) partisan political reasons.

As you can see below I have been arguing this long before.

avatar said:
Good news is 1 million 4 hundred thousand deaths? ... Wow...
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It is good news, and something I have been pointing out for a while even before these new estimates:

04/21/20

Captain Adverse said:
For the last time, as simply as I can present it...that 5.3% rate is among CONFIRMED CASES, now modified by numbers of recounted deaths that may or may not be actually due to Covid-19.

As I have argued, and is argued by the expert Virologist in the video, we simply do not know how many people have been infected and either had immunity or simply beat the disease with minor effects.

If you added 5 times the number of confirmed cases (i.e. assuming each confirmed infected touched at least 5 other people) to include my low estimate of those possibly infected but immune/strong immune systems, then the number of persons would be over 4.9 million and the morbidity rate would be around 0.9%.

Not hard to fathom when we know NY State has over 15 million people, 8.5 million in NYC alone.
Click to expand...

From 04/25/20.

Captain Adverse said:
...My "own stats" show that the real morbidity rate is very likely less than 1% and not the "scaremongering" 5+% people keep touting based solely on confirmed cases. Even the member I was discussing this with prior to your post agrees it is probably between 0.45% - 0.9%.
Click to expand...

And 05/06/20.

And
Captain Adverse said:
...Even so, the numbers seem to be showing that the morbidity is more likely to be well under 1% and nowhere near your 31% much less the current 5% based on deaths from confirmed cases.

Of course, even 1% of 325 million is 3.25 million. :shrug:
Click to expand...

Meanwhile :roll:

avatar said:
...It's really great that you applaud 0.4% Auschwitz was only 1.1 million. Great news eh.
Click to expand...

So yeah, despite your fallaciously hyperbolic comparison..it IS "good news."
 
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Captain Adverse said:
It is good news, and something I have been pointing out for a while even before these new estimates:


04/21/20



From 04/25/20.


And 05/06/20.
And



So yeah, despite your fallaciously hyperbolic comparison..it IS "good news."
Click to expand...
That's what I said. 1.4 million is really good news isn't it? :lamo That's a simple mathematical rendering of 350 million people times 0.4%. Really great news.
 
avatar said:
That's what I said. 1.4 million is really good news isn't it? :lamo That's a simple mathematical rendering of 350 million people times 0.4%. Really great news.
Click to expand...

Wow, you know how I got my figures! Good for you! :roll:

Yes, it actually is good news, because unlike 1918, we currently have made major advances in medical science and are far likelier to find a vaccine to combat the disease before it reaches that level.

Moreover, we are learning it is not as easy to get, and steps can be taken to prevent exposure for most people. My "estimate" is very, very worst case scenario.

so try to remain calm...the sky is not likely to fall after all. :coffeepap:
 
Let's see ...

As of today the US has a reported [Worldometer(r)] total of COVID-assigned deaths of 100,572.

The virus mortality rate is 0.4%

So the number of those in the US who have actually been infected by the virus, including those who have not been reported, is:

(100,572 x 100)/0.004 = 2,514,300,000.

Golly gee whiz, Mr. Science! Ain't mathematics fascinating?

Regards to all. Stay safe 'n well.
 
Wayne Jr said:
Sure, but not as serious as obesity, which claims 300,000 Americans every year and we do nothing about it.
Click to expand...

Can you get fat by another fat person within 6 feet of you sneezing on you?
 
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