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"States see spikes in cases over the holiday weekend" (this is a lie)

noonereal said:
deplorables
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It looks like Hillary was wrong or things have changed. There is no "other basket". There is only the deplorable basket.
 
WCH said:
Using weight and appearance to berate another. Liberals have done a tolerance 180.
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LOL.. You're kidding, right? Trump has made fun of people's looks for years. Funny Trumpsters don't care when he does it though..
 
SenorXm/Sirius said:
LOL.. You're kidding, right? Trump has made fun of people's looks for years. Funny Trumpsters don't care when he does it though..
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Pelosi is the new Trump then.
 
BlueTex said:
When did NC and AR begin opening up?

Gov. Hutchinson: COVID-19 cases reach a 'second peak' | KATV
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By the logic of the article, they are calling a "peak" a statistically large increase in daily cases compared to the day before:

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With conventional media logic, this must mean that the first "peak" occurred as a direct result of the state opening up too much on that day (or 5 days before, to account for the average exposure to symptoms lag). Then the state quickly 'shut down' again to get a normalized increase in cases.

Then on May 22nd (or 5 days before), the state opened up again and got hit with a 'spike' in cases. The next day a similar large jump wasn't seen, meaning that the state must have reacted within 24 hours and shut the state down again.

It's nonsense.
 
Rickeroo said:
By the logic of the article, they are calling a "peak" a statistically large increase in daily cases compared to the day before:

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With conventional media logic, this must mean that the first "peak" occurred as a direct result of the state opening up too much on that day (or 5 days before, to account for the average exposure to symptoms lag). Then the state quickly 'shut down' again to get a normalized increase in cases.

Then on May 22nd (or 5 days before), the state opened up again and got hit with a 'spike' in cases. The next day a similar large jump wasn't seen, meaning that the state must have reacted within 24 hours and shut the state down again.

It's nonsense.
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Let's think about this logically, we have over 1.5 million confirmed cases already. That's with the stay at home orders, etc. As states open up, do you expect the number of cases to increase or decrease?
 
SenorXm/Sirius said:
Nope. Not even close..
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Maybe not ideologically, but she's not above childish namecalling.

Don't get me wrong. Damn me, I found it hilarious. I like to think after she made those remarks she went into her office and collapsed from laughter. Because I almost did.
 
BlueTex said:
Let's think about this logically, we have over 1.5 million confirmed cases already. That's with the stay at home orders, etc. As states open up, do you expect the number of cases to increase or decrease?
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As states open up, as they have for 3 weeks, I'd expect cases to go up at a faster rate, percentage-wise, than during lockdown, and I'm not seeing it.

You can't tell from the numbers that opening has started - we are 3 weeks in. It all looks the same, as if lockdowns did nothing.
 
Rickeroo said:
As states open up, as they have for 3 weeks, I'd expect cases to go up at a faster rate, percentage-wise, than during lockdown, and I'm not seeing it.

You can't tell from the numbers that opening has started - we are 3 weeks in. It all looks the same, as if lockdowns did nothing.
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Are you suggesting the infection rate of virus changed? Has it mutated? What were your expectation of the lockdowns?
 
ElChupacabra said:
Some of the most affected states are easing restrictions (NY, NJ, CT), so we'll get a better sense as the next few weeks go by if there are any spikes in states with high density populations. We also have European countries as a reference as well.
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Those states are also reopening slower, in phases, to see the results before continuing. I expect there to be spikes along the way.
 
Rickeroo said:
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Last bar is Saturday, May 23rd. It's a "spike", right?

Anyone have any idea how long it takes from exposure to symptoms (5 days), or how long it takes for test results to come back once you get tested? A couple of days, right?

So the media would have us believe that people get exposed as they emerge on Saturday, feel sick that very same day, get tested for Covid, get their results in 12 hours, and then states "see spikes" in cases come Sunday morning when the reports aren't even in yet.

And I'm supposed to vote Biden because this logic is so convincing? Why lie, oh great media?
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Any increase in volatility will still potentially overwhelm our healthcare sector capacity to deal with the current pandemic. We should be putting some people to work to upgrade critical sectors soonest and all other sectors as soon as possible. High paid Labor used to upgrade those sectors will circulate capital and increase demand and pay taxes in the process.
 
BlueTex said:
Are you suggesting the infection rate of virus changed? Has it mutated? What were your expectation of the lockdowns?
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My expectations for the lockdowns were to reduce transmission rate. To the extent that the lockdowns have been lifted over the last 3 weeks, I expected the infection rate to go up. It has not.

Why?
 
RAMOSS said:
Those states are also reopening slower, in phases, to see the results before continuing. I expect there to be spikes along the way.
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Yep, seems logical based on the infection rates we were seeing early on when there were no measures in place. What I'm really curious to see is whether the spikes lead to higher hospitalization rates and how well prepared various states are to handle that. If people are following the social distancing/mask usage protocols, we should hopefully see smaller spikes and nowhere near where some areas were before.

The one question that floats around is what this will mean for tourist friendly rural areas that weren't affected badly the first go around. Now that summer is around the bend, I'm sure urbanites will be itching to get out of their areas, and with that comes the risk of outbreaks in previously spared areas. My fingers are crossed with the hopes the measures will serve people well in that scenario as well. My wife and I are still debating whether we want to go to the shore; if we do, we'll likely stay in one of the sleepier shore towns where the beaches aren't busy even during peak season.
 
eman623 said:
Pelosi is the new Trump then.
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She didn't call him a fat clownfish. She said he was morbidly obese, which is the correct medical terminology for the state he is in.
 
ElChupacabra said:
Yep, seems logical based on the infection rates we were seeing early on when there were no measures in place. What I'm really curious to see is whether the spikes lead to higher hospitalization rates and how well prepared various states are to handle that. If people are following the social distancing/mask usage protocols, we should hopefully see smaller spikes and nowhere near where some areas were before.

The one question that floats around is what this will mean for tourist friendly rural areas that weren't affected badly the first go around. Now that summer is around the bend, I'm sure urbanites will be itching to get out of their areas, and with that comes the risk of outbreaks in previously spared areas. My fingers are crossed with the hopes the measures will serve people well in that scenario as well. My wife and I are still debating whether we want to go to the shore; if we do, we'll likely stay in one of the sleepier shore towns where the beaches aren't busy even during peak season.
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Part of the metrics for reopening in NY at least is having enough hostpial beds and icu units to handle an upturn in cases.
 
Rickeroo said:
My expectations for the lockdowns were to reduce transmission rate. To the extent that the lockdowns have been lifted over the last 3 weeks, I expected the infection rate to go up. It has not.

Why?
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Because red state reublican governors are covering up the numbers. That's why.
 
Rickeroo said:
My expectations for the lockdowns were to reduce transmission rate. To the extent that the lockdowns have been lifted over the last 3 weeks, I expected the infection rate to go up. It has not.

Why?
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The goal of the lockdowns was to slow the rate of the number of new infections thereby reducing demand on hospital services. That seems to have mostly worked. Ideally, we would have used this time to stockpile PPE, prepare for massive testing and contact tracing and expand hospital capacity as needed on a national basis. We have made some progress in these areas but we will see in a month or so how prepared we are as the number of infected continues to rise. We are very likely well under 5% of the population that has been infected. We have a long way to go..
 
Rickeroo said:
My expectations for the lockdowns were to reduce transmission rate. To the extent that the lockdowns have been lifted over the last 3 weeks, I expected the infection rate to go up. It has not.

Why?
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Why is healthcare capacity being overwhelmed with normal volatility not even upward trends?
 
Rickeroo said:
View attachment 67281459

Last bar is Saturday, May 23rd. It's a "spike", right?

Anyone have any idea how long it takes from exposure to symptoms (5 days), or how long it takes for test results to come back once you get tested? A couple of days, right?

So the media would have us believe that people get exposed as they emerge on Saturday, feel sick that very same day, get tested for Covid, get their results in 12 hours, and then states "see spikes" in cases come Sunday morning when the reports aren't even in yet.

And I'm supposed to vote Biden because this logic is so convincing? Why lie, oh great media?
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Be sure the reported increase is cases is not just from increased testing.
 
poweRob said:
She didn't call him a fat clownfish. She said he was morbidly obese, which is the correct medical terminology for the state he is in.
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Not a very dignified thing to say though. Very Trumpian.
 
eman623 said:
Not a very dignified thing to say though. Very Trumpian.
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This is Trumpian...

Trump called Rosie “fat little Rosie,” “stupid,” “a little clam,” “unattractive,” “that animal,” and a “degenerate.” link...

"big, fat pig." He also called her a "real loser" and referred to her as "my nice fat little Rosie." - link...​

Calling him "morbidly obese" is a much higher road than what he takes.
 
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Rickeroo said:
The headline is that states see spikes as people emerge for the holiday weekend:

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There is no spike, either before or during the holiday emergence.
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I'm not specifically attributing it to anything, but I can see a pretty clear change in trend from the chart you posted. Every hump has been shifting down until the last two, which are mostly flat to rising, meaning a change in trend over the last few weeks. I wouldn't necessarily call that a good sign to re-open. But I also noticed a recent spike in my local area. After looking at testing trends, I figure they might very well be correlated, as testing has also been increasing a lot.
Maybe a fairer metric would be to also somehow factor out the rise in testing, or at least account for it. Again, the testing correlation rise is just in my local area, I haven't looked across all states. Can't really say whether it is the same cause.
 
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Aletheia said:
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I'm not specifically attributing it to anything, but I can see a pretty clear change in trend from the chart you posted. Every hump has been shifting down until the last two, which are mostly flat to rising, meaning a change in trend over the last few weeks. I wouldn't necessarily call that a good sign to re-open. But I also noticed a recent spike in my local area. After looking at testing trends, I figure they might very well be correlated, as testing has also been increasing a lot.
Maybe a fairer metric would be to also somehow factor out the rise in testing, or at least account for it. Again, the testing correlation rise is just in my local area, I haven't looked across all states. Can't really say whether it is the same cause.
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Excellent work with the trend line, however I would have rather seen one starting on May 1st and not the 10th. That being said, the upward line isn't that impressive given some combination of opening and more testing - both of which are known to have occurred.

I think a more accurate way to determine the true effect of the opening is to measure deaths per day, which would have a 15-19 day delay from the onset of infection. Critical and near death cases get top priority for testing.
 
Rickeroo said:
My expectations for the lockdowns were to reduce transmission rate. To the extent that the lockdowns have been lifted over the last 3 weeks, I expected the infection rate to go up. It has not.

Why?
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The guidelines for reopening advise that states should be prepared to test, quarantine and do contact tracing. Done correctly that should allow the new infections to be kept under control. That’s how South Korea has been able to control their cases. We should have been doing that from the start. With Trump being against testing from the beginning instead of pushing for it the US has had an uphill battle.


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