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Thread: after reopening 3 weeks ago, ICU beds at capacity in Montgomery, Alabama

  1. #171
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    Re: after reopening 3 weeks ago, ICU beds at capacity in Montgomery, Alabama

    Quote Originally Posted by What if...? View Post
    So let me guess, you're the kind of person who would suspect Jews of having spread the black death or had a secret cure because they weren't affected anywhere near as much as everybody else.

    Turned out that what it really was is they culturally washed their hands regularly and kept cats, whcih Christians did not because they were associated with witches. Lots of cats means very few rats. Fleas on rats transmitted the virus.

    The Christian population never made the connection. But they did add the jews' success to their list of greivances against them.

    Which sounds eerily like the rhetoric we hear now from the right in regards to the left, come to think of it.

    LSS, you provide examples from periods when little was known or understood about viruses to now.

    And you still can't gaslight away South Korea's success. Doing all that stupid unnecessary stuff kept their infections down to less than twelve thousand and iirc 264 deaths.

    A sixth of our population less than ten percent of the cases and a tiny fraction of the deaths.

    And their testing and contact tracing efforts avoided complete shutdowns and things are already much back to normal. Masks in public is still practiced.

    They didn't have to implement mitigation efforts. They stayed in containment.

    Trump had no interest in containment.

    He apparently thought that if we just believed in him enough he'd come back to life.
    Oh, wait, that's Tinkerbell...

    If you want another example, consider Japan.

    Summary of 20/07/14 COVID-19 (Deaths/Cases) Mortality Statistics
    World (576,524/13,276,123) 4.34% / USA (138,291/3,481,680) 3.97% / Canada (8,790/108,155) 8.13%
    Running update of the COVID-19 data at Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19

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    Re: after reopening 3 weeks ago, ICU beds at capacity in Montgomery, Alabama

    Quote Originally Posted by Digger View Post
    The state closed down at the beginning of April and opened back up at the end of April. And now they've run out of ICU beds.

    With just one ICU bed available, Montgomery, Alabama, is sending sick patients to Birmingham - CNN
    One ICU bed? Seriously? They could "run out of beds" with a serious car accident.
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    Re: after reopening 3 weeks ago, ICU beds at capacity in Montgomery, Alabama

    Quote Originally Posted by GhostlyJoe View Post
    Fair enough, but that doesn't meant the action you advocate now was politically tenable then.

    Also, the reality is that COVID-19 is extremely contagious but is not anything close to a world killer.
    <SARC>Quite right, it has only killed 340,616 people world wide and that is a mere 0.004% of the entire population of the world. Since that number is so small, the only thing to do is to completely ignore it and concentrate on the really important causes of death - like the people who are trying to take away our guns so that the blacks and browns can rape and slaughter our wives and children</SARC>.
    Summary of 20/07/14 COVID-19 (Deaths/Cases) Mortality Statistics
    World (576,524/13,276,123) 4.34% / USA (138,291/3,481,680) 3.97% / Canada (8,790/108,155) 8.13%
    Running update of the COVID-19 data at Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19

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    Re: after reopening 3 weeks ago, ICU beds at capacity in Montgomery, Alabama

    Quote Originally Posted by Rickeroo View Post
    What's telling is that the estimated death counts really aren't that large with the county opening up. We were promised 2 million dead, and they are talking 150,000 with opening. If 200,000 end up dying, Coronovirus will be about an eighth of the Spanish Flu at 0.06% of the population dead.

    With a few exceptions for tightly-packed cities, we didn't have to close the country.

    If we did have to close the country, then the death toll estimations would be far higher come August 4th.
    Does somebody really need to explain to you AGAIN the purpose of the shutdown?

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    Re: after reopening 3 weeks ago, ICU beds at capacity in Montgomery, Alabama

    Quote Originally Posted by Variant View Post
    When they expand testing they usually keep track of the number of positive tests coming back vs negative ones.

    If you are finding fewer and fewer positive tests per test then the curve is going in the right direction.
    As of 23 May, 2020, one new case of COVID-19 was discovered for every 8.5 tests conducted.

    As of 23 April, 2020, one new case of COVID-19 was discovered for every 5.6 tests conducted.

    As of 23 March, 2020, one new case of COVID-19 was discovered for every 8.8 tests conducted.

    Before that the data is not readily accessible.

    It would be nice to assume that "The ONLY reason why the number of cases is increasing is because we are increasing the number of tests we are doing." - but it isn't methodologically sound.
    Summary of 20/07/14 COVID-19 (Deaths/Cases) Mortality Statistics
    World (576,524/13,276,123) 4.34% / USA (138,291/3,481,680) 3.97% / Canada (8,790/108,155) 8.13%
    Running update of the COVID-19 data at Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19

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    Re: after reopening 3 weeks ago, ICU beds at capacity in Montgomery, Alabama

    Quote Originally Posted by AmNat View Post
    The Spanish Flu killed around 3% of the world population, and around .5% of the US population. The Black Death killed a third to a half of the population in most places. The coronavirus may have a population wide mortality of .1%.

    These aren't "tales of caution". Disease is part of human life. It sucks, but it doesn't justify putting everything on hold. Our ancestors understood this even when facing much deadlier illnesses.
    Our ancestors didn't know jack **** about diseases or how to control them. The Catholic Church held mass gatherings in an effort to stop the Black Death. There were groups of people who wandered town to town flagellating themselves so they could appease God to stop the Black Death. Thousands of Jewish people were murdered because, due to their increased hygiene associated with their religious ceremonies, they died a t a lesser rate than non-Jewish people. They didn't shut down because it would have never occurred to them to shut down. Our social distancing efforts is due to our increased knowledge of science and diseases as a species. Certainly you aren't wishing we follow the example of medieval Europe?

    We need to follow the science, and we need to do so in order to protect people. Also, the death rate for the virus is much more than .1 percent. It is much more dangerous than the flu, and COVID-19 should not be taken lightly.
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    Re: after reopening 3 weeks ago, ICU beds at capacity in Montgomery, Alabama

    Quote Originally Posted by Chomsky View Post
    Alright, fair enough. Earlier when the testing was so SNAFU'd I was going by deaths, but I do believe you may be right.

    So what's your take? How are we doing as a country? How about different states & locales?

    As an aside, I'm not very impressed by my local numbers at all, in terms of infections & deaths. But as you said, that may be a function of more prevalent testing.
    20-05-23 World-China-USA-Canada 20-05-13.JPG

    - - NOTES FOR – World/China/USA/Canada - -

    NOTE 1 – As of 15 APR 2020 Canada and the United States of America use _the same criteria for reporting_ both “Total Cases” and “Total Deaths”. Prior to 15 APR 2020, the US did NOT include “probable” cases and deaths but only reported “confirmed” cases and deaths. Some other countries also use the same criteria for both “Total Cases” and “Total Deaths” as Canada and (now) the US use, but I don’t know which do and which don’t.

    NOTE 2 – Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.

    NOTE 3 –

    More Americans have now died from COVID-19 than died due to the Vietnam War (58,209).

    The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the number of American deaths in World War I (116,516).

    For data on individual US States follow THIS LINK.

    Some dispute has been cast on the US data due to unconfirmed reports that some states are either deliberately UNDER (for political reasons) or OVER (for financial reasons) reporting. [Florida has recently fired the person in charge of maintaining its published COVID-19 reports because that person refused to publish the known to be false data that Florida’s governor ordered them to publish.]

    NOTE 4 – Absolute numbers [Columns (A) and (B)] adjusted to show what they would be if Canada had the same size population as the US. The ratio numbers remain the same.

    PS - The chances that a random person in Canada will die from COVID-19 is 56.12% of the chance that a random person in the US will die from COVID-19. This is true even though the mortality rate in Canada is 7.58% while the mortality rate in the US is only 5.93%.

    How can that be possible? Because the chances of CATCHING COVID-19 in Canada are only 43.93% of the chances of catching COVID-19 in the US.
    Summary of 20/07/14 COVID-19 (Deaths/Cases) Mortality Statistics
    World (576,524/13,276,123) 4.34% / USA (138,291/3,481,680) 3.97% / Canada (8,790/108,155) 8.13%
    Running update of the COVID-19 data at Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19

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    Re: after reopening 3 weeks ago, ICU beds at capacity in Montgomery, Alabama

    Quote Originally Posted by TU Curmudgeon View Post
    If you want another example, consider Japan.

    Not their first rodeo in recent memory, same with SK.

    They already knew the drill. Knew it worked, and of course they don't have trump for a president.
    Anyone wondering what I'm talking about start here:
    The Psychology of Persuasion

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    Re: after reopening 3 weeks ago, ICU beds at capacity in Montgomery, Alabama

    Quote Originally Posted by ataraxia View Post
    I am interpreting that you think the unanimous recommendations of physicians and public health experts should be ignored. Am I misinterpreting that?
    It's not unanimous since any doctors who disagree are viciously attacked for doing so.

    But to get to the fundamental point, possession of scientific knowledge should not confer a right to dictate public policy. Moreover, people with scientific knowledge are not immune to peer pressure, which can unduly influence their predictions on speculative matters.

    Quote Originally Posted by ataraxia View Post
    Who has recommended indefinite quarantines?

    The CDC had put out detailed guidelines of how to prudently reopen the economy. It was stifled by the Whitehouse.
    This type of rhetoric is not at all rare:

    Mayor: LA Will Never Completely Reopen ‘Until We Have A Cure’ – CBS Los Angeles


    Quote Originally Posted by ataraxia View Post
    Yeah, you're right, it did not result in quarantining of ordinary healthy people. Here is what that looked like:
    Are you suggesting that the plague would've had minor lethality if they had had shutdowns?

    Boy, these guys look like they really had it together and knew what they were doing! We need to learn from them and emulate them! And the economy did just fine, I am sure. That was back when men were men! Don't listen to these mambie pambie liberals "scientists", "physicians", and "public health experts" today!
    The 14th century economy did do fine. There is no evidence that plague or any other disease causes mass unemployment by simply existing.

    And yes, men were men back then. We live in a world of safe spaces and emotional support animals. It's simply impossible to imagine the average modern person carrying on during the sort of horror that convulsed Europe from 1347 to 1351.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ikari View Post
    The Black Death happened back in the 1300's where their best idea of medicine was like blood letting. Even the Spanish Flu occurred over 100 years ago. One would hope that with our medical tech and expertise in 2020 that we'd never reach those numbers. That doesn't mean that this is some simple cold that we don't have to worry about. We have over 96K dead in not quite 4 months. And for pandemics like the Spanish Flu, many of those deaths hit in the second wave. We're not at the second wave of this yet.

    Being flippant and nonchalant towards this crisis will only deepen it. The problem, which seems to be where Montgomery is running into, is when we overwhelm our hospitals. The deaths will start increasing dramatically once we overwhelm our healthcare response. If you want another Spanish Flu numbers, then not caring and not taking measures is certainly the way to get there.
    The basic fact that human contact spreads disease has been known from time immemorial. The cause of the current panic isn't an increase in knowledge, but a decrease in common sense and an increase in fear.

    Quote Originally Posted by Digger View Post
    So let me get this straight. You wanted to talk about the first pandemic of the bubonic plague, because that's the one where governments had no idea how to respond and more than half the population died. You'd rather not talk about the later bouts of the same bacteria, when governments knew how to respond and far fewer people died.

    What point are you trying to make, exactly? I don't see how your insistence on using the bubonic plague as an example is helping you in any way.

    A couple million Americans that aren't dead is a strong enough incentive to justify the shutdown. Oh but I'm sure, you know better right?
    I cited the Black Death because someone asked for an example. Me citing one example of something doesn't require me to know about every other possible example in history.

    The point is that people in the past were not prone to insane overreactions, even when faced with extremely serious diseases. Over time we've become progressively more scared of death, and willing to endure more extreme measures to avoid slighter risks of it.

    The notion that subsequent plague outbreaks were less serious because of containment measures is ludicrous. Mortality rates among the infected show that subsequent strains of plague were less virulent than the Black Death. Though in most cases, containment measures were still milder than those implemented now, or even those implemented during the Spanish Flu. British India in the 1890's may have been an exception.
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    If you get covid and end up on a ventilator I would be overjoyed.

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    Re: after reopening 3 weeks ago, ICU beds at capacity in Montgomery, Alabama

    Quote Originally Posted by What if...? View Post
    I doubt this post will age well.
    It will in Trumplandia. Truth is what Trump says it is.
    "I don't kid" Donald J Trump 6/23/2020. Just in case you want to say he was joking

    Quote Originally Posted by Jetboogieman View Post
    This issue has been plowed more times than Paris Hilton.

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