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Persistent misconceptions about COVID-19

GreatNews2night

GreatNews2night

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Some misconceptions and the data that contradicts them:

1) It's OK to just quarantine the elderly and vulnerable and let the others out, for herd immunity.

Only one country has tried this, of the 214 countries with COVID-19 outbreaks: Sweden. It's backfiring. Their death toll is now 11 times higher than neighboring Norway. And it's frequently understood that Sweden is not doing any social distancing. Not really. Colleges and high schools are closed. Gatherings of more than 50 people are forbidden. People are being encouraged to work from home and refrain from non-essential travel, and people are encouraged to stay 2 meters from each other (and Swedes are usually good at following governmental requests). Still, since they didn't lock down completely like Norway, their death toll is 11 times higher. Presumably it would be even higher without any containment measured whatsoever. Herd immunity may also be a fallacy. The Swedes are expecting that it would work if 60% of them get the virus... but updated R0 numbers suggest that one needs 95% for the SARS-CoV-2 to be contained. While here people are protesting the lockdown, in Sweden they are protesting the absence of one.

2) The virus only kills people who were about to die anyway.

This is contradicted by the surge in all-cause deaths and comparison with similar periods last year. In New York, for example, the all-cause death rate is 3 times higher than the average for the same period in the past. That means, no, the surge of deaths to the coronavirus is NOT because people would have died anyway, or else, the all-cause rates would be only slightly bigger, not three times bigger. The same surge has been observed in all 7 states that have had significant outbreaks.

3) The virus is harmless for young or younger people.

Well, think again. Now there are reports popping up everywhere of severe consequences for young people: blood clots leading to stroke (often fatal), frost-bitten-like extremities, Kawasaki disease (an inflammation of blood vessels that decreases circulation to the heart), all of these happening in children, adolescents, and young adults, and permanent lung damage of up to 30% of lung capacity happening in adults aged 40 to 59. I mean, come on, just a little flu? Since when does the flu routinely cause these problems?

4) We can just test people for antibodies, give them certificates of immunity, and let them go back to work, or use rapid antigen tests for tracing

Antigen tests have been so faulty, that they have been capturing only 34% to 80% of previously infected people (therefore, huge number of false positives); on average, a 50-50 proposition so they wouldn't help that much. Anitbody tests have the problem of false positives, which is even worse because it would release a susceptible person into the fray, with an unjustified sense of confidence. And then, we don't know at all if there is lasting immunity after people recover from COVID-10. In 14% of them antibodies can't even be found... Others have just moderate titers, and others do have high titers but who knows how long they'll last? The virus is too novel to allow for an answer to this question.

5) In the US the lockdown was an over-reaction because only the elderly and infirm need to be sequestered

See #1 and #3 but then also consider this for the specific case of the US: probably at least half of our population (likely way more) is made of carriers of underlying conditions. Almost 40% of us are obese (highest rate in the world). 100 million have hypertension and 40% of those don't even know that they have it. 47 million seniors. 26 million diabetics. And so on and so forth, millions of other forms of heart disease, asthma, COPD, heavy smokers, cancer survivors... And then, add to that, the people who take care of them or live with them: release the latter into the fray, and they will bring the virus to the susceptible ones. If we were to do this, we'd need to sequester probably two thirds of our population anyway... no advantage over what we are doing, which concerns 60% of the population because 40% are considered to be essential workers.

Opinion | How Sweden Is Dealing With the Coronavirus - The New York Times

U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests - The New York Times

Kawasaki disease: Rare inflammatory syndrome seen in US child with Covid-19 - CNN

Coronavirus testing: What to know about the three main types of tests - CNN
 
jpn said:
Here's another one: it's no worse than the flu:

View attachment 67279321

Coronavirus Kills More Americans in One Month Than the Flu Kills in One Year
Click to expand...

I know, I've been posting over and over to counter the silly people who still keep comparing this to the flu. And not only the fataility rate is much worse, but also clinically it is much more severe with cytokine storms, acute renal failure, disseminated intravascular coagulation, much bigger rate of critical cases and severe pneumonias, much higher and longer need for ventilators, and the issues I've mentioned in #3 above; all of this plus these steep death toll curves should make it easy for anybody with a thinking brain to realize that this is much worse than the flu. And it's harder to contain too, as the incubation period is longer and the asymptomatic transmission is longer. The influenza virus has bigger particles that are more easily filtered by masks, and is not so airborne like the SARS-CoV-2. And I could go on. There are many virological and clinical characteristics of this virus that make it much worse than the flu (oh, and it is more contagious, too).

What is mind boggling is that even Trump said "it's not the flu, it's vicious" but his followers continue to say that it's just like the flu.
 
GreatNews2night said:
Some misconceptions and the data that contradicts them:

1) It's OK to just quarantine the elderly and vulnerable and let the others out, for herd immunity.

Only one country has tried this, of the 214 countries with COVID-19 outbreaks: Sweden. It's backfiring. Their death toll is now 11 times higher than neighboring Norway. And it's frequently understood that Sweden is not doing any social distancing. Not really. Colleges and high schools are closed. Gatherings of more than 50 people are forbidden. People are being encouraged to work from home and refrain from non-essential travel, and people are encouraged to stay 2 meters from each other (and Swedes are usually good at following governmental requests). Still, since they didn't lock down completely like Norway, their death toll is 11 times higher. Presumably it would be even higher without any containment measured whatsoever. Herd immunity may also be a fallacy. The Swedes are expecting that it would work if 60% of them get the virus... but updated R0 numbers suggest that one needs 95% for the SARS-CoV-2 to be contained. While here people are protesting the lockdown, in Sweden they are protesting the absence of one.

2) The virus only kills people who were about to die anyway.

This is contradicted by the surge in all-cause deaths and comparison with similar periods last year. In New York, for example, the all-cause death rate is 3 times higher than the average for the same period in the past. That means, no, the surge of deaths to the coronavirus is NOT because people would have died anyway, or else, the all-cause rates would be only slightly bigger, not three times bigger. The same surge has been observed in all 7 states that have had significant outbreaks.

3) The virus is harmless for young or younger people.

Well, think again. Now there are reports popping up everywhere of severe consequences for young people: blood clots leading to stroke (often fatal), frost-bitten-like extremities, Kawasaki disease (an inflammation of blood vessels that decreases circulation to the heart), all of these happening in children, adolescents, and young adults, and permanent lung damage of up to 30% of lung capacity happening in adults aged 40 to 59. I mean, come on, just a little flu? Since when does the flu routinely cause these problems?

4) We can just test people for antibodies, give them certificates of immunity, and let them go back to work, or use rapid antigen tests for tracing

Antigen tests have been so faulty, that they have been capturing only 34% to 80% of previously infected people (therefore, huge number of false positives); on average, a 50-50 proposition so they wouldn't help that much. Anitbody tests have the problem of false positives, which is even worse because it would release a susceptible person into the fray, with an unjustified sense of confidence. And then, we don't know at all if there is lasting immunity after people recover from COVID-10. In 14% of them antibodies can't even be found... Others have just moderate titers, and others do have high titers but who knows how long they'll last? The virus is too novel to allow for an answer to this question.

5) In the US the lockdown was an over-reaction because only the elderly and infirm need to be sequestered

See #1 and #3 but then also consider this for the specific case of the US: probably at least half of our population (likely way more) is made of carriers of underlying conditions. Almost 40% of us are obese (highest rate in the world). 100 million have hypertension and 40% of those don't even know that they have it. 47 million seniors. 26 million diabetics. And so on and so forth, millions of other forms of heart disease, asthma, COPD, heavy smokers, cancer survivors... And then, add to that, the people who take care of them or live with them: release the latter into the fray, and they will bring the virus to the susceptible ones. If we were to do this, we'd need to sequester probably two thirds of our population anyway... no advantage over what we are doing, which concerns 60% of the population because 40% are considered to be essential workers.

<edited to meet posting limit>
Click to expand...

Two items you may find of interest:

1] Sweden just changed their policy on unregulated bars & lounges, due to rising infection & death numbers.

2] After ten days of relaxed social distancing, Germany's transmission rate jumped from 0.7 to 1.0, causing them to re-evaluate.

I find #2 to be especially concerning.
 
Oops, on #4 I meant false negatives for the antigen tests. I tried to edit but it seems like while the software initially counted my post as less than 5,000 characters, when I try to edit (and eliminate other typos like data that contradict instead of contradicts; containment measures instead of measured) the software says it has 5,300 characters so I'd have to break the OP down in two posts, after others have already posted after it, so I'll just let these errors stay.
 
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America is full of drug abusing, booze soaked , fat diseased slobs .
No better example of it than what you see now .
Every other commercial on tv today is for bringing you either a double cheese pizza , or a double wrapped taco, or 5 baconator burgers for $5 slathered in cheese to your front door .
Oh,and in the interest of public health they are going to make all these delights " TOUCHLESS " .
You want to avoid croaking from corona? Put down the 2lb bag of tortilla chips burger breath .
 
Chomsky said:
Two items you may find of interest:

1] Sweden just changed their policy on unregulated bars & lounges, due to rising infection & death numbers.

2] After ten days of relaxed social distancing, Germany's transmission rate jumped from 0.7 to 1.0, causing them to re-evaluate.

I find #2 to be especially concerning.
Click to expand...

Yep, it's backfiring on Sweden. This should give pause to all the misguided people who keep bitching about the lockdown being unnecessary.

About what is happening in Germany, it certainly WILL happen here; just much worse. Like Fauci said, we'll get back to where we were weeks ago if we open up too soon. And we will open up too soon, due to political and economic pressure, and if we try to lock down again, people won't obey.

Given the characteristics of our culture that is skeptical of governmental authority, I believe that we'll be the hardest hit developed country in the world.
 
Eatomus said:
America is full of drug abusing, booze soaked , fat diseased slobs .
No better example of it than what you see now .
Every other commercial on tv today is for bringing you either a double cheese pizza , or a double wrapped taco, or 5 baconator burgers for $5 slathered in cheese to your front door .
Oh,and in the interest of public health they are going to make all these delights " TOUCHLESS " .
You want to avoid croaking from corona? Put down the 2lb bag of tortilla chips burger breath .
Click to expand...

Yes, we have the highest obesity rate in the entire world, and obesity is one of the biggest risk factors for a bad case of COVID-19.

I didn't give links to the percentage of sick people in the US because it would be time consuming; one would need to google these diseases one by one and select a source, but you all can google the different diseases and you'll find the millions of people afflicted by them. In the past in my posting history I did post the numbers for each condition, but I won't go through this time-consuming exercise again, now. It's in my posting history if someone really wants it (it will be hard to find, though), but you can also google it on your own. Sorry for no links to back #5 up, but again, the links do exist in my posting history.

Of course there is overlap... like someone being elderly, obese, and diabetic, with hypertension. But that's not big consolation because having multiple conditions make people even more likely to die if they catch COVID-19.

All things considered I think half of our population which doesn't have great health (as opposed to other countries with better diets and lifestyles) is susceptible, at least... which may explain why we have 4.6% of the world's population and 27% of the world's coronavirus deaths.
 
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GreatNews2night said:
Yep, it's backfiring on Sweden. This should give pause to all the misguided people who keep bitching about the lockdown being unnecessary.

About what is happening in Germany, it certainly WILL happen here; just much worse. Like Fauci said, we'll get back to where we were weeks ago if we open up too soon. And we will open up too soon, due to political and economic pressure, and if we try to lock down again, people won't obey.

Given the characteristics of our culture that is skeptical of governmental authority, I believe that we'll be the hardest hit developed country in the world.
Click to expand...
Based upon what we're seeing with Germany, and watching America's chaotic everyone-out-for-themselves local jurisdiction methodology of dealing with this, I'm putting odds more likely to escalate than to succeed.

If so, the big problem will be:

"What will happen if we need to revert back to some form of shutdown, even if only abridged?"

Only months before the election, do you think Trump will do it? Or, the Republican governors will do it? Political aspirations may become a distinct serious danger to us (if they aren't already).
 
Now, I could add another misconception but I wont have a link for it; part was seen on TV; the other part is anecdotal but is based on what others have posted here on DP:

6) The lockdown is preventing people from feeding their families, without a paycheck

Sure, I feel for the less fortunate fellow Americans who are not getting a paycheck. But I saw on TV today a restaurant owner complaining that his employees are getting twice as much from unemployment benefits than they used to get from him to work in his restaurant so they have no incentive to return to work for months when they reopen. Sure, asshole, in this case you should just pay them more... but it shows how some segments of the population are getting good unemployment benefits so they can afford to remain locked down a little longer. I mean, a segment. I don't deny that some people are suffering. But the other anecdotal part, is that someone here posted that of his 20 friends (or some number close to that; I'm quoting from faulty memory) who qualified for stimulus checks, only 1 deposited the money on a savings account to face expenses and to help with a pay cut, and the other 19 immediately rushed online to buy the latest iPhone model and flat-screen TVs. There was a thread here about what people wanted to do with their stimulus checks... Not one said "save the money, I may need it to feed my family." All posters mentioned various dreams... buy videogames, accessories for their trucks, all sorts of non-essential consumer goods. So, it's kind of rich (pun intended) when these same people presumably whine that they can't feed their families. I say, increase governmental aid temporarily, give more stimulus checks if needed, but keep the lockdown going a bit longer. Not forever, of course, not for too long, but a bit longer.

My hope that this will happen is low. Political pressure will be intolerable and we WILL reopen prematurely, and will end up with another wave of contagion.
 
Chomsky said:
Based upon what we're seeing with Germany, and watching America's chaotic everyone-out-for-themselves local jurisdiction methodology of dealing with this, I'm putting odds more likely to escalate than to succeed.

If so, the big problem will be:

"What will happen if we need to revert back to some form of shutdown, even if only abridged?"

Only months before the election, do you think Trump will do it? Or, the Republican governors will do it? Political aspirations may become a distinct serious danger to us (if they aren't already).
Click to expand...

What will happen is what the Georgia governor said, that if a few need to die for the benefit of the many, so be it. America will engage in ageism, content for the elderly who are dying, a false sense of safety, and the virus will encroach, keep killing, and more and more families will face the consequences, while other luckier familiers not hit by tragedy will continue to deny that it's a big deal... until, a long time from now, when hopefully we finally get a safe and efficacious vaccine to conquer this virus, we'll look back and say, "oh my God, we really did terribly, so many people died..." By then, of course, it will be too late.

Until the next pandemic hits and we'll redo it all over again, because I haven't seen a lot of clamor for preparedness and for supporting the sciences.
 
GreatNews2night said:
What will happen is what the Georgia governor said, that if a few need to die for the benefit of the many, so be it. America will engage in ageism, content for the elderly who are dying, a false sense of safety, and the virus will encroach, keep killing, and more and more families will face the consequences, while other luckier familiers not hit by tragedy will continue to deny that it's a big deal... until, a long time from now, when hopefully we finally get a safe and efficacious vaccine to conquer this virus, we'll look back and say, "oh my God, we really did terribly, so many people died..." By then, of course, it will be too late.

Until the next pandemic hits and we'll redo it all over again, because I haven't seen a lot of clamor for preparedness and for supporting the sciences.
Click to expand...
Your scenario is if we escalate, but stop well short of the runaway situation we were in. But there's no guarantee we won't end-up back in a serious escalation again, if we blow it. As cases rise again, and they likely will, Trump & the Republican governors will be loathe to dial their economies back as we go to the polls. That is my concern.
 
Eatomus said:
America is full of drug abusing, booze soaked , fat diseased slobs .
No better example of it than what you see now .
Every other commercial on tv today is for bringing you either a double cheese pizza , or a double wrapped taco, or 5 baconator burgers for $5 slathered in cheese to your front door .
Oh,and in the interest of public health they are going to make all these delights " TOUCHLESS " .
You want to avoid croaking from corona? Put down the 2lb bag of tortilla chips burger breath .
Click to expand...

After I do that, can I finish my corona?

Sorry.
 
Eatomus said:
America is full of drug abusing, booze soaked , fat diseased slobs .
Click to expand...


Even though I may disagree with him, I don't thinks it's fair to talk the president like this...
 
Chomsky said:
Only months before the election, do you think Trump will do it? Or, the Republican governors will do it? Political aspirations may become a distinct serious danger to us (if they aren't already).
Click to expand...

What's so sad about this is that it absolutely never had to become a partisan issue. It's a crisis that could have been completely dealt with within the bounds of science and reason.

But noooooooo.
 
jpn said:
What's so sad about this is that it absolutely never had to become a partisan issue. It's a crisis that could have been completely dealt with within the bounds of science and reason.

But noooooooo.
Click to expand...

Actually, that’s my question. Why is it a partisan issue? I can see how climate change might be, but why this? Seen Limbaugh and Ingraham attack the science. Is skepticism about the danger supposed to help Trump? He has been erratic and untruthful but that’s normal and his administration has put out sensible ideas. What gives with our politics? Has the same divide occurred in other countries?
 
Nickyjo said:
Actually, that’s my question. Why is it a partisan issue? I can see how climate change might be, but why this? Seen Limbaugh and Ingraham attack the science. Is skepticism about the danger supposed to help Trump? He has been erratic and untruthful but that’s normal and his administration has put out sensible ideas. What gives with our politics? Has the same divide occurred in other countries?
Click to expand...

I don't know. It seems to me that Trump's only plank is the economy. He knew right away that a pandemic could ruin that for him. At first he tried to hide the danger of the viral spread to buy some time for the economy. When his cover was blown he had two problems: his cover-up and trouble with the economy. To deal with these threats to re-election, he started claiming that the threat of the virus was a hoax concocted by the Democrats. This is when the divide began. Now the Democrats have two problems: watching the circus in the administration inspired, in addition to ordinary political differences, a fear that Trump is truly unhinged (more dangerous to the country than was previously thought); plus the need to counter Trump's hoax campaign. All down hill from there.
 
Has this been posted before? or some of it? I'm having a Deja Vu moment.
 
jpn said:
What's so sad about this is that it absolutely never had to become a partisan issue. It's a crisis that could have been completely dealt with within the bounds of science and reason.

But noooooooo.
Click to expand...
Yeah, if this doesn't unite us, what will? Trump is ****. No other way to say it. And he turned our country into a ****hole.
 
ldsrptcvt said:
I don't know. It seems to me that Trump's only plank is the economy. He knew right away that a pandemic could ruin that for him. At first he tried to hide the danger of the viral spread to buy some time for the economy. When his cover was blown he had two problems: his cover-up and trouble with the economy. To deal with these threats to re-election, he started claiming that the threat of the virus was a hoax concocted by the Democrats. This is when the divide began. Now the Democrats have two problems: watching the circus in the administration inspired, in addition to ordinary political differences, a fear that Trump is truly unhinged (more dangerous to the country than was previously thought); plus the need to counter Trump's hoax campaign. All down hill from there.
Click to expand...
Trump has embarked on that campaign. He separated himself from his pandemic people, declared victory, and now is spreading lies as he champions the economy, which of course he will save and ride victoriously into the election.

He started on this new deal Monday.
 
Regarding Sweden the jury is still out. Half of the deaths have been in assisted living homes. Sweden admits they screwed that up somehow. They may be in much better shape for a second wave.

Regarding younger people getting Corona. The common denominator is that most of these people had health issues.
 
BlueTex said:
Even though I may disagree with him, I don't thinks it's fair to talk the president like this...
Click to expand...

:lamo




This is the barely coherent and grammatically inept speech of a man who desperately wants to be able to claim that he "cured coronavirus."

That's it, in a nutshell. When we do get a handle on this crisis, he wants to be able to pull out footage and declare "I called it! I said use this! I said try this! I told them to do this, it was my idea!" He's just doing it with lots of stupid stuff because he doesnt want to miss an opportunity. He's afraid 'the big one' will be mentioned and he wont get credit for it.

It's all about declaring himself the savior of the cv crisis and we'll hear all about it, esp in his campaign. (Which is basically each of his press briefings these days) --- Lursa
Click to expand...
 
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Chomsky said:
Trump has embarked on that campaign. He separated himself from his pandemic people, declared victory, and now is spreading lies as he champions the economy, which of course he will save and ride victoriously into the election.

He started on this new deal Monday.
Click to expand...

And had no trouble calling out the governors...all "blue" that I can think of...that dont agree with him. Calling any other person a 'snake' is so unprofessional, such a poor example of leadership, so lowbrow, but that's what he did...to the governor of WA St.




This is the barely coherent and grammatically inept speech of a man who desperately wants to be able to claim that he "cured coronavirus."

That's it, in a nutshell. When we do get a handle on this crisis, he wants to be able to pull out footage and declare "I called it! I said use this! I said try this! I told them to do this, it was my idea!" He's just doing it with lots of stupid stuff because he doesnt want to miss an opportunity. He's afraid 'the big one' will be mentioned and he wont get credit for it.

It's all about declaring himself the savior of the cv crisis and we'll hear all about it, esp in his campaign. (Which is basically each of his press briefings these days) --- Lursa
Click to expand...
 
Mongidig said:
Regarding Sweden the jury is still out. Half of the deaths have been in assisted living homes. Sweden admits they screwed that up somehow. They may be in much better shape for a second wave.

Regarding younger people getting Corona. The common denominator is that most of these people had health issues.
Click to expand...

What difference does that make? These younger people are out in society, and normally, not at risk from other people. Are you just saying their lives dont matter now? People under 50? With high blood pressure, lupus, undergoing chemo, with leukemia, diabetes, etc etc etc?



This is the barely coherent and grammatically inept speech of a man who desperately wants to be able to claim that he "cured coronavirus."

That's it, in a nutshell. When we do get a handle on this crisis, he wants to be able to pull out footage and declare "I called it! I said use this! I said try this! I told them to do this, it was my idea!" He's just doing it with lots of stupid stuff because he doesnt want to miss an opportunity. He's afraid 'the big one' will be mentioned and he wont get credit for it.

It's all about declaring himself the savior of the cv crisis and we'll hear all about it, esp in his campaign. (Which is basically each of his press briefings these days) --- Lursa
Click to expand...
 
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