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Thread: Coronavirus death toll in US likely worse than numbers say

  1. #21
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    Re: Coronavirus death toll in US likely worse than numbers say

    Quote Originally Posted by Slavister View Post
    Huh? You are now saying the opposite of the claim I questioned. Earlier you said "People who die of the flu and pneumonia are being counted as covid-19 deaths." but now you seem to be saying the opposite, which is what I was saying to begin with.
    Flip a coin. Or go back and listen to different days of all the contradictory and exactly opposite absolute facts the MSM talking heads, experts including the CDC, WHO, Dr. Fauci, and all politicians on both sides have assured us are absolute facts. Pick the facts you want no matter what those are. You could provide dozens of links to prove whichever ones you pick.

    But WHATEVER YOU DO, don't even PONDER who is making massive sums of money now and for the future - and who the losers are. Likely everyone in the forum including you is on the losers list - so that'd just be depressing.

    Who are you rooting for to make more billions, tens of billions or hundreds of billions more than already currently are and are going to make indefinitely into the future as all their lesser competitors are ordered out of business by the government? Jeff Bezos or the WalMart heirs?
    Coronavirus still poses a low risk to the general public in the US.""If you are a healthy young person, there is no reason if you want to go on a cruise ship, go on a cruise ship." "If you have tested negative for covid-19, there is no reason to wear a mask." Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of NIAID

  2. #22
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    Re: Coronavirus death toll in US likely worse than numbers say

    I've been making some effort to put a number to this question, and I think I have found at least a reasonable one. Yesterday I was reading some articles about the FDNY EMS callout experience during the COVID outbreak. (New York city is always good for lots of data and analysis.) One article noted that they had gone from 20 calls to 220/day (others were even more specific and actually worse). "The dramatic increase of cardiac arrest calls and deaths from cardiac arrest calls demonstrates the impact suspected or confirmed COVID-19 patients are having on 911 and what EMS members are having to respond to every day," said a senior fire official. ('Cardiac calls' to 911 in New York City surge, and they may really be more COVID cases. (NBC))

    From March 20 to April 5, 2019, cardiac calls averaged 69 a day in New York City, with an average of 27 deaths — 39 percent of the calls. For the same period this year, cardiac calls averaged 195 a day, with an average of 129 deaths, meaning 66 percent of those calls involved a death. The numbers for Sunday were the highest yet. Out of 322 cardiac calls, 241, or almost 75 percent, ended in death.
    Epidemiologists commonly use this kind of comparative data to determine the "burden" of a particular disease. Being even more precise (eliminating the first two weeks where there was almost no appreciable difference in experience) yields a probable increase in non-hospital COVID-related deaths of about 200 a week. Non-hospital deaths are generally not included in the statistics because the victims are rarely tested before fatality. Extrapolating from that experience indicates that the statistics are underreporting by about 20% (actually, 21.4%, but I'm rounding down to be conservative). Meaning, instead of 15,000 COVID deaths, it's probably 18,000.

    People die at home for a variety of reasons. Some have co-morbities that keep them housebound, some have no medical coverage so avoid contact with the medical system, some are "toughing it out" and don't realize the rapidity with which a cytokine reaction can attack, and some just don't see it coming. An acquaintance of mine (a friend of a friend, and a "riding buddy") just died of a heart attack that was probably COVID-related. He'd been "feeling a little off" with a cough and a slight fever and stayed home from work, and suffered a heart attack over the weekend. He did not respond to treatment. But, he was never tested.

    The point, however, is that this is probably a reasonable analog for the number of unrecorded COVID-related mortalities and can be applied to our current national experience to get a pretty good estimate of the actual burden. Just multiply by 1.2.

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    Re: Coronavirus death toll in US likely worse than numbers say

    As of this morning, my state's hospitalization rate is 16.5% with a death rate of 2.69% of those tested. Local cases jumped from 12 to 19 in last couple days.

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    Re: Coronavirus death toll in US likely worse than numbers say

    Quote Originally Posted by joko104 View Post
    "The number of COVID-19 cases is not a very useful indicator of anything."
    Definitely proves a point.

    Why Nate Silver, graduate of the London School of Economics and Political Science, isn't head of the World Health Organization or at least the CDC is puzzling. He certainly has the academic credentials - he and anyone on a city council somewhere.

    Besides, he is a statistical genius. He called the win in 2016 for President Hilary Clinton perfectly.
    As I recall he gave Trump about a 1/3 chance of winning at the end.

    If you have a revolver with three chambers, and load one bullet, and a 'pollster' tells you there's a 1/3 chance of killing yourself playing Russian Roulette, is the 'pollster' wrong if you pull the trigger and blow your brains out? Of course not. So why do you think that reasoning works for polling. 538 did a much better job indicating the LACK of certainty about the election than virtually anyone else.

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