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Death projections are down from 90k to 80k now to 60k

Casper said:
I like squirrel, and they are bigger than mice and most bats.
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They're edible because they don't scavenge or eat meat (generally). I dunno if that's true of any other rodents.
 
BlueTex said:
Have any theories on why those projections are showing a decline in May or June? Does it have anything to do with the social distancing? Do you believe the virus will just disappear then?
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They aren't showing a decline in May, they are showing a decline starting in a week or so and continuing.

Why does the model factor in social distancing if it's irrelevant?
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Because social distancing is an emergency measure when the scope of the infection in unknown. You tell everyone to self quarantine because anyone could have it. By late April, early May, anyone who had COVID-19 before social distancing will either have developed severe symptoms or have recovered from it and it can be safe to assume that those in quarantine will either not have the illness or have already recovered.

Due to the confidence of a low rate of infection, the high availability of resources, and maintaining prophylactic measures of mask wearing and hand washing, it is safe to start reducing restrictions and allowing people to return to work.
 
jmotivator said:
Due to the confidence of a low rate of infection, the high availability of resources, and maintaining prophylactic measures of mask wearing and hand washing, it is safe to start reducing restrictions and allowing people to return to work.
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My industry has been allowed to continue working, but I treat violation of social distancing as a disciplinary issue, same as violating confined space or lock out/tag out procedures.
 
ecofarm said:
They're edible because they don't scavenge or eat meat (generally). I dunno if that's true of any other rodents.
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As I said, Rabies, but a good idea. Meh ...there is a loooong list of better options
 
jmotivator said:
They aren't showing a decline in May, they are showing a decline starting in a week or so and continuing.



Because social distancing is an emergency measure when the scope of the infection in unknown. You tell everyone to self quarantine because anyone could have it. By late April, early May, anyone who had COVID-19 before social distancing will either have developed severe symptoms or have recovered from it and it can be safe to assume that those in quarantine will either not have the illness or have already recovered.

Due to the confidence of a low rate of infection, the high availability of resources, and maintaining prophylactic measures of mask wearing and hand washing, it is safe to start reducing restrictions and allowing people to return to work.
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Please. We don't know the rate of infection. Testing hasn't been done and we have no idea who is infected or spreading the virus. We've a year and a half of this to endure, or more ,of this . It reminds me of John Kerry saying who wants be the last to die of a mistake, read as the failure of our president to act in the best interest of himself instead of our country.
 
Hamish Howl said:
My industry has been allowed to continue working, but I treat violation of social distancing as a disciplinary issue, same as violating confined space or lock out/tag out procedures.
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Yeah, that will need to continue for a while even after the end of the quarantine. Our site policy is that nobody is allowed in without a mask, and maintain safe distances.

We're still trying to figure out how we will move a data center of hardware across base if none of us can be within 3 feet of one another, and the brass isn't ready to admit it is a problem. *shrug*
 
jmotivator said:
Yeah, that will need to continue for a while even after the end of the quarantine. Our site policy is that nobody is allowed in without a mask, and maintain safe distances.

We're still trying to figure out how we will move a data center of hardware across base if none of us can be within 3 feet of one another, and the brass isn't ready to admit it is a problem. *shrug*
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Yeah, it's a challenge. Some things we just aren't doing.
 
jmotivator said:
Because social distancing is an emergency measure when the scope of the infection in unknown. You tell everyone to self quarantine because anyone could have it. By late April, early May, anyone who had COVID-19 before social distancing will either have developed severe symptoms or have recovered from it and it can be safe to assume that those in quarantine will either not have the illness or have already recovered.

Due to the confidence of a low rate of infection, the high availability of resources, and maintaining prophylactic measures of mask wearing and hand washing, it is safe to start reducing restrictions and allowing people to return to work.
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Sounds like you read no further than the headlines.. You should probably read the FAQ about the models assumptions particularly about the level of social distancing (level 4).


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jmotivator said:
Yeah, that will need to continue for a while even after the end of the quarantine. Our site policy is that nobody is allowed in without a mask, and maintain safe distances.

We're still trying to figure out how we will move a data center of hardware across base if none of us can be within 3 feet of one another, and the brass isn't ready to admit it is a problem. *shrug*
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Put it all in the “cloud”... [emoji1]


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Slavister said:
Great news!

Within a week, US death projections from one of the models used widely (incl by White House) changed from 90k down to 80k and now to 60k.

Earlier range was 40k-180k. New range is 30k-120k.

This shows that stay-at-home measures, now applied to 97% of population, are working.

One explanation I read is that original models assumed 50% of people complied with stay-at-home orders and social distancing whereas in truth 90% do.

Let's keep pushing the projections down! Stay home and away from other people! You are literally saving lives when you do!
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Yup, and imagine if they'd started earlier.

America has already caught up to Spain in deaths and is on track to surpass Italy in a couple of days, but I reckon after the 20k mark it will level off and start to fall and might not pass 30k.

Obviously this is way lower than the dire estimates of 100-200k a week ago when less was being done and much better than the initial fears of several million. that's because science works people: with proper testing and quarantine, effective and dedicated effort by the population to adhere to social distancing and better hygiene, you can run out the clock on a virus that has such a short lifespan.

But in the words of the wisest stable genius on the planet, 'who knew?'
 
Corona versus influenza Virus
maxparrish said:
You mean like a cold...a corona virus, right?
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No. A Ford is not just a type of Chevy. Coronavirus is not just a different strain of influenza. They have some things in common.
 
maxparrish said:
Apparently you didn't even read my thread title, let alone the op. I stated: " Latest Covid Trend Charts Confirm - No Worse than Really Bad Flu". Nowhere in my OP or afterwards did I say this is like the common flu. I repeatedly stated that the Covid Trend Charts confirmed that the number of deaths will be on the order of a really bad flu. (Note the focus on trend).
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:lamo

When you title your thread "Latest Covid Trend Charts Confirm - No Worse than Really Bad Flu", you don't get to then tell us that "No Worse than Really Bad Flu" part, you know, the part that your charts confirm, is not an important part of your OP somehow.

Are you seriously trying to complain now about misinterpretation on anyone's part that your thread with title saying you confirmed it to be "No Worse than Really Bad Flu" was implying CV19 is just like a bad flu?

Maybe the fact that, according to your own words, "every kitchen sink within reach was tossed [your] way...so many it was impossible to answer them all" should tell you something.

maxparrish said:
And yet for each one of those items either you, or one of peers in the collective, claimed that those points made the model, and charts, invalid. No matter how I explained it as irrelevant to the trend lines, the Bronx cheer from the left was almost uniform. In short, you have it both ways.
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I see what you did there. Since you could not accuse me specifically, you decided to accuse me via your imaginary association with my "peers in the collective"? :lamo

Why don't you come back to me with some quote where I said something about your model or charts as being invalid.

maxparrish said:
... I haven't said "social distancing" to be ineffective and therefore useless. I have said the differences between kind of social distancing and the accurate measurement of their effectiveness is not settled...i.e. unclear.
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You'd think a majority of countries and states and localities might have given you a clue. Noone needs precise measurements in this case that lock downs in countries with sufficient spread and not enough tracking are a must to avoid a catastrophe.

When a small asteroid is heading toward us, in deciding whether to have massive economy-destroying evacuation, it does not matter to accurately predict whether it will kill 10 million or 100 million people around the area of the impact.

maxparrish said:
... the SD lockdown nuke as official policy is not uncommon. However, examples using conventional SD weapons are not. Few nations have the backbone to try using a long-term campaign of voluntary social distancing, or mitigation measures such as those described in the Imperial College Report because a) you don't know what will actually happen and b) it doesn't matter because democratic politics require a political leader to incinerate the social economic structure just to look like he/she is doing something.
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So you accuse China, Russia, much of Western Europe, Argentina, Canada, Australia of democratic politics?

maxparrish said:
Here is the bottom line. To everyone's surprise the models way over-shot the impact of COVID-19 and the load on the medical establishment. Folks like Fauci said we 'had to be near perfect' to keep the death toll under 250,000 or so, yet we were very imperfect and yet we are speaking of 60,000, not 250,000.
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No, they predicted the RANGE of 100k-240k, not just the high number that you want to throw out there because it suits you.

In fact, both Fauci and Birx said (while "we should be prepared for [this kind of death toll]") they are hoping the numbers will be LESS with ongoing efforts to reduce them.

maxparrish said:
... obviously the modeling has missed some things, including the possibility that the virus was over-rated in virulence in all but the most dense urban environments and states ... we didn't have to put 10s of millions out of work. ... NOW they ex post facto rationalize how it confirmed everything they believed.
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Wrong again. Just because lockdowns worked better than predicted, it does not mean we did not need them at all. It's really not a hard concept.

maxparrish said:
And the link is: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9.pdf
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Thanks for the link. I don't know what to make of that phrase when in fact many hotspots HAVE in fact been shown to originate from various mass gatherings, whether it be a church or convention or others. The paper does not give us any more information to evaluate their results (in fact they don't even show their results), nor does it tell us what they mean by mass gatherings. While interesting, I don't think this single mention in a single paper is something to hang your hat on.
 
3leftsdoo said:
Anytime people might get sick or die any time ever again from any cause, we need to shut the country down.

Especially if the Democrats don't like a Republican president.

What's a few trillion & massive unemployment & enormous pain to the People in order to advance a criminal political agenda?

Just ask Quid Pro Joe.

:donkeyfla
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Especially if the Democrats don't like a Republican president.
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Just a suggestion, stop playing partisan politics and keep you eye on the eight ball
 
swing_voter said:
The experts didn't think we'd do the social distancing thing, but we have.
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Yes, it was amazing how SF residents were jogging, walking and riding their bikes on the Boardwalk(LOL)
 
ataraxia said:
Corona versus influenza Virus


No. A Ford is not just a type of Chevy. Coronavirus is not just a different strain of influenza. They have some things in common.
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The flu is not the cold. The coronavirus does in fact cause the common cold. Along with rhinovirus and others.
 
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