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Death projections are down from 90k to 80k now to 60k

Oh I'm sorry I thought we were playing that game where we make up motivations for the other guys.

Youve been playing that game for 3 1/2 years.
 
Anytime people might get sick or die any time ever again from any cause, we need to shut the country down.

Especially if the Democrats don't like a Republican president.

What's a few trillion & massive unemployment & enormous pain to the People in order to advance a criminal political agenda?

Just ask Quid Pro Joe.

:donkeyfla
Stupid thing for you to suggest.

Which has Zero to do with anything

Then please send you government chech back or donate the money to charity.i assume you don't care is small businesses survive, or Citizens for that matter.

You really are a piece work.....
 
Oh I'm sorry I thought we were playing that game where we make up motivations for the other guys.

You're always playing the game where you lie. :lamo
 
Youve been playing that game for 3 1/2 years.

Laughable considering the post apdst made. Curious that you have absolutely no criticism of it.
 
You're always playing the game where you lie. :lamo

Pot calling the snowbank black. Someone is a fan of 1984.
 
Laughable considering the post apdst made. Curious that you have absolutely no criticism of it.

I read Apdsts post and your mischaracterization of it.
 
I read Apdsts post and your mischaracterization of it.

I didn't characterize apdsts post in any way, shape, or form.

Wait, you took my post literally? No, I was highlighting what he did. He just makes up that us scary liberals want millions to die because it hurts Trump. Is that so hard for you to criticize? You're totally fine with people doing that?
 
That (bolded above) assertion is based on what, exactly? The only thing changed is the model prediction - while COVID-19 death numbers continue to increase.

Looked at another way, it cost $2.2T (so far) to (allegedly) save 10K to 60K lives.

I'm basically in agreement with you there, except that as a close SARs relative, this could come back around much more virulent. Or not. This was more communicable by far than SARs and that would be a huge disaster if it came around.

This could be a very expensive but useful dress rehearsal for a pandemic that epidemiologists have been saying for decades is coming. Not if, but when. Much like the 'big one' earthquake for CA. And yes, that's a simple statement but I do recognize the personal and financial pain it has caused and is still causing people.
 
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You guys know you only get one shot at this, right? If the numbers are much lower than early projections -- and they certainly are going to be much, much lower -- then you've lost the narrative. You can scream "it worked!" all you want, but people feeling the residual economic effects are going to be unconvinced.

It's called crying wolf.

My prediction: There will never be another lockdown no matter how bad the next virus is.

Yes, I do agree with much of that. It's nothing to happy about tho and certainly such people objecting or wanting to ignore another threat could be mistaken.

Epidemiologists have been predicting 'the big one' for decades and it's not 'if, but when.' Much like for CA earthquakes.

If it amounts to a very expensive, damaging 'dress rehearsal,' at least we have learned many things from it.

(OTOH, the boy who cried wolf did so intentionally. I do not believe that worldwide medical experts did so intentionally)
 
Because you said we spent 2.2 trillion to save 10K lives. That isn't true. That 2.2 trillion was not for 10K lives.

What measures would you have preferred?

Testing, contact tracing and shutdowns limited to "hot spots". To say that SK was capable yet the US was not is nonsense.
 
Stupid thing for you to suggest.

Which has Zero to do with anything

Then please send you government chech back or donate the money to charity.i assume you don't care is small businesses survive, or Citizens for that matter.

You really are a piece work.....

We need more caves to hide in! :yes:

(Bat-free, of course.)
 
So, nobody has any immunity to the "normal annual influenza"? We have vaccines for this coronavirus variant?

Do you get your orange zest from apple peels?

Of course people have immunity to COVID-19, just like any other influenza virus it is going to effect people differently. Some will be immune, others will be only mildly effected, others will be seriously effected, and yet others will die. In case you were confused this is the same pattern we see every year with influenza. Vaccines for a particular influenza virus are not produced until the following year. Sometime during 2021 you will be able to get vaccinated for COVID-19, but it isn't likely to happen this year. It never does.
 
I'm basically in agreement with you there, except that as a close SARs relative, this could come back around much more virulent. Or not. This was more communicable by far than SARs and that would be a huge disaster if it came around.

This could be a very expensive but useful dress rehearsal for a pandemic that epidemiologists have been saying for decades is coming. Not if, but when. Much like the 'big one' earthquake for CA. And yes, that's a simple statement but I do recognize the personal and financial pain it has caused and is still causing people.

What has yet to be explained is why adequate testing is still not available in the US. I hear some excuses, but no reasons.
 
What has yet to be explained is why adequate testing is still not available in the US. I hear some excuses, but no reasons.

Dunno. What I really want is for widespread blood testing for antibody titers.

I really think I may have had it in Jan. I was sick twice, once for almost 2 weeks and then a week and a half later for 3-4 days. All with many of the specific CV symptoms. People here in my town complained about a 'two week flu' on our local social media.

And I almost never get sick. I was however, going in to the office more often and around people with kids. So I could have picked up bugs from them...but that also could be the cv bug. The very first known case in the nation was 20 minutes from here...in early Feb.

Just IMO it may have been circulating here in the US under the guise of 'flu' for sometime. So I really want to give blood and find out.
 
Dunno. What I really want is for widespread blood testing for antibody titers.

I really think I may have had it in Jan. I was sick twice, once for almost 2 weeks and then a week and a half later for 3-4 days. All with many of the specific CV symptoms. People here in my town complained about a 'two week flu' on our local social media.

And I almost never get sick. I was however, going in to the office more often and around people with kids. So I could have picked up bugs from them...but that also could be the cv bug. The very first known case in the nation was 20 minutes from here...in early Feb.

Just IMO it may have been circulating here in the US under the guise of 'flu' for sometime. So I really want to give blood and find out.

Finding out who used to have it is nice, but finding out who is contagious (and actual quarantines) would be nicer.
 
Finding out who used to have it is nice, but finding out who is contagious (and actual quarantines) would be nicer.

Yes, most definitely!

Sorry, that was just the epidemiology fan in me coming out.
 
Of course people have immunity to COVID-19, just like any other influenza virus it is going to effect people differently. Some will be immune, others will be only mildly effected, others will be seriously effected, and yet others will die. In case you were confused this is the same pattern we see every year with influenza. Vaccines for a particular influenza virus are not produced until the following year. Sometime during 2021 you will be able to get vaccinated for COVID-19, but it isn't likely to happen this year. It never does.

The Coronavirus is not in the influenza family of viruses. It is entirely different.

This particular strain of coronavirus is particularly deadly because of its predisposition to causing ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome), which is an acute flooding of the lung with water from leaking blood vessels.
 
Yes, most definitely!

Sorry, that was just the epidemiology fan in me coming out.

Hmm... assuming that you had COVID-19, how many others do you think you likely infected?
 
NOW someone attempts to make lemonade out of a lemon, claiming not only that there has been full social distancing BUT that it was "super full distancing" so THAT explains why the IHME model turned to be correct...
What on Earth are you talking about? The IHME model hasn't "turned out to be correct" yet.

What's happening is that IHME periodically updates their model, based on factors like actual rates of new cases, hospitalizations, number of hospital beds, deaths, R0 and so on. They've done this several times, and will continue to do so.

Nor is it a criticism to recognize that IHME is made for a specific purpose, to help hospitals plan for caseloads.


First, the update note at the IHME DO NOT even discuss, let alone claim, that the revision downward is due to EXTRA social distancing.
The model updates are right here, dude.

- Earlier models were based on Wuhan. They updated the model to incorporate data from Spain and Italy, including how long it takes for social distancing policy to take effect.

- They track four main distancing methods (school closures, stay-at-home orders, non-essential business closures, and travel limitations.) Previously they were given equal weight, now they are weighed differently.

- They're comparing past predictions to actual outcomes to reduce uncertainties.

- They adjusted the model to better handle inconsistencies in some of the reports.

And so on. And yes, some of it is due to states implementing controls. The model can't predict when states are going to issue stay-at-home orders.


...much is still unknown about this virus. We don't know it's natural infection rate (only a range of possibilities), it's natural mortality rate, or how much other factors affect it's expression; climate, UV exposure, population density, etc.
There are no such things as "natural" infection or mortality rates. Those are always impacted by the society (e.g. do people shake hands? Do people have clean water?) and medical resources (are there enough hospital beds?) However, they do know enough to develop useful models. They also know that the models become more precise when they compare the previous predictions to actual results, and of course update the models for changes in real-world conditions.


Four, it is also curious that OTHER urban areas are not virulent 'hot spots' : one hear's nothing about Chicago, Los Angles, Dallas, Denver, etc. It may well be that it takes very high population concentration's to maintain an epidemic...
Los Angeles is 4 times more dense than New Orleans. Try again.


Five, it is also impossible to know whether formal SD policy made a difference compared to what people do anyway, voluntarily.
No, it isn't. There is no question that in the US, compulsory measures will work much faster than voluntary ones.

I mean, really. How many people were on the beaches during Spring Break? How many were there when those beaches were closed?


But you could have tracked the data, without knowing the mechanisms, to predict when and how this will end - in other words, look at the charts.
What the what?

Look at what charts? When do you look at the charts?

Are you really suggesting that we should replace models based on actual replication rates and actual responses, to... you just drawing random lines on a piece of paper? :confused:
 
Suppose the new model is right and 60,000 people die in the US. What do you think the numbers would have looked like if we treated this like a normal flu season? Many hospitals are reportedly being overwhelmed and lack proper PPE. Do you believe that's something that usually happens in a normal flu season?

When have their models ever been right? Seriously. Cite a single case of when their model has come close to being accurate to actual observation.

Instead of using models try using actual observation. How many people are actually dying, and at what rate? Then compare it to prior influenza epidemics and see if you can spot any difference between the two. The hospitals are not even remotely overwhelmed, and they lack the PPE because of the media-induced nation-wide panic. The leftist media deliberately incited this panic publishing models they knew to be bogus from the very beginning. Ask yourself why the media is making such a huge deal over COVID-19 when even more Americans died and where hospitalized during the 2017-2018 influenza virus? When there were more than 250 Americans dying every day during the peak in 2018 from influenza why wasn't there a peep from media?
 
Hmm... assuming that you had COVID-19, how many others do you think you likely infected?

Well I do work from home alot. And in the winter here, I dont interact socially with many people, I'm an outdoors person.

So office people...which would all be circulating to each other...and the occasional food shopping. I hate shopping in general so that likely would be the only other place, that and general errands.

Less than 100 people directly would be my guess. Maybe even 50 people. (Depends on how many other shoppers were shopping near me) I totally stayed home while I was sick so only when incubating...which would be up to 2 weeks before symptoms appeared.
 
We need more caves to hide in! :yes:

(Bat-free, of course.)

I am betting you have yours
I like bats they eat their weight in bugs every night, I just don't eat them
 
10 years from now the part of the movie that shows how Republicans "justified" not voting for Hillary because of the deaths in Benghazi and then gave Trump a pass on his slow action (causing deaths) on the Corona Virus will be funny.

not haha funny but "those ****ing idiots" funny.
 
Great news!

Within a week, US death projections from one of the models used widely (incl by White House) changed from 90k down to 80k and now to 60k.

Earlier range was 40k-180k. New range is 30k-120k.

This shows that stay-at-home measures, now applied to 97% of population, are working.

One explanation I read is that original models assumed 50% of people complied with stay-at-home orders and social distancing whereas in truth 90% do.

Let's keep pushing the projections down! Stay home and away from other people! You are literally saving lives when you do!

This is standard doomsday cult behavior. When the end of the world doesn't actually happen, it's attributed to the faith of those who believed it would.
 
No, it wasn't. Again: It was based on past experience with similar diseases, and a reasonably accurate assumption about replication rates. That estimate was also published on 3/16, by which time we had some definite (though certainly not comprehensive) information about the virus.
The initial Imperial College study was published mid-January, COVID-19 had only been discovered in Wuhan the month before. They had virtual no information, and what little they did have was manufactured out of thin air by China. Yet completely lacking any credible information they irresponsibly published a study claiming there would be 2.2 million deaths in the US. Which you leftists ran with in the media in order to create as much panic and terror as possible.


No, no, no. The CDC most certainly does NOT say that. You're just ignoring what the CDC says, and even the data you're presenting.
The CDC does say precisely that. All those figures came from the CDC. As does the grand total 12,754 US deaths since COVID-19 was first detected on US shores January 21, 2020. There will not be anywhere near 61,000 deaths with COVID-19 like we had with the influenza epidemic of 2017-2018.

Incorrect. We make a flu vaccine every year. And the fact that we won't have a vaccine for COVID-19 for at least a year is a major reason for why we need to take action.
We make vaccinations every year for last year's strain of influenza. There were no vaccinations for SARS until the year after it came out. There were no vaccinations for the H1N1 virus until the following year. The same will be true with COVID-19.

What are you, new? Hospitals in Italy were completely overwhelmed, and that drove up the mortality rate. Hospitals in New York, Louisiana and other areas are barely hanging on, and that's with doing everything they can to maximize hospital space for COVID-19 patients, reusing PPE only intended for single use, even using experimental equipment to put 2 people on 1 ventilator.

How many people have to die before you take this seriously?

I would expect hospitals to be overwhelmed in communist sh*tholes like Italy and most of socialist Europe where their level of medicine is vastly inferior. That is just common sense.

Once again, the lack of PPE is directly the result of the media-induced panic. As is all the clearing out of the grocery stores, the "social distancing" nonsense, and even the panic spending of $2 trillion by a Congress that has completely lost its collective marbles. All that evidence of panic that you choose to refuse to see.

To answer your last question, I take deliberate acts of terrorism by you leftists very seriously and have been advocating that the Democratic Party be classified a terrorist organization under Public Law 107-40.
 
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