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Death projections are down from 90k to 80k now to 60k

The Coronavirus is not in the influenza family of viruses. It is entirely different.

This particular strain of coronavirus is particularly deadly because of its predisposition to causing ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome), which is an acute flooding of the lung with water from leaking blood vessels.

It is not any different from any other influenza virus, just a different strain. And a predisposition towards ARDS is caused by all influenza viruses, which is why the CDC combines influenza and pneumonia deaths together. Influenza often leads to pneumonia or other pulmonary disorders.
 
This is standard doomsday cult behavior. When the end of the world doesn't actually happen, it's attributed to the faith of those who believed it would.

Too rational.

:spank:
 
Bats or bugs?

:confused:

Haven't eaten any bats, would be like eating a mouse. Ate plenty of bugs, spend a lot of time in the woods, including on survival courses, plus I Ride.
 
Haven't eaten any bats, would be like eating a mouse. Ate plenty of bugs, spend a lot of time in the woods, including on survival courses, plus I Ride.

I don't think bats scavenge. It would be like eating a squirrel.
 
Testing, contact tracing and shutdowns limited to "hot spots". To say that SK was capable yet the US was not is nonsense.

I agree we should have had better testing. But even now it is not as good as it could be.

Hot spots means little to nothing with this virus because you can spread it for up to 14 days without knowing it. By the time an area becomes a hot spot it is too late.

To me, it is hard to compare SK to USA. Size matters. Population matters. International travel matters. Then mentality of the population matters.
 
I don't think bats scavenge. It would be like eating a squirrel.

Not much actual meat, plus there is the rabies thing. I'll eat bugs first, not really bad and full off protien. Thinking I will wait on that until the apocalypse before going, besides I live on a lake, food and water are not going to be an issue.
 
All the deaths of one flu season in 5 months and only with stay at home till May 30th...

Flu season is October through March and peaks in December/January, COVID-19 is expected to peak this week and run through June... so basically the same run time and the same number of deaths.

I don't think there will be widespread stay at home through May. As the curve turns down the supplies will get ahead of the crisis and people will start going back to work.
 
Flu season is October through March and peaks in December/January, COVID-19 is expected to peak this week and run through June... so basically the same run time and the same number of deaths.

pure speculation that COVID-19 will be seasonal..

I don't think there will be widespread stay at home through May. As the curve turns down the supplies will get ahead of the crisis and people will start going back to work.

Then the model will change and increase the number of deaths...
 
Not much actual meat, plus there is the rabies thing. I'll eat bugs first, not really bad and full off protien. Thinking I will wait on that until the apocalypse before going, besides I live on a lake, food and water are not going to be an issue.

Plenty of people eat squirrels.
 
pure speculation that COVID-19 will be seasonal..

I'm not making a seasonal argument, I am arguing that the projections see the epidemic ending in early June or late May. If that happens, the COVID-19 cycle will be as long as flu season.

Then the model will change and increase the number of deaths...

Or not. It almost seems like you'll be disappointed if it ends up being no more deadly than the flu...
 
The initial Imperial College study was published mid-January, COVID-19 had only been discovered in Wuhan the month before.
The first two studies in January were exclusively on Wuhan. They made no death predictions.

Report 1 - Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Wuhan City, China | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London
Report 2 - Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Wuhan City, China | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

The 3rd report estimated R0 at 2.6. The 4th Report (we're in February now) estimated the case fatality ratio. And so on.

Here is the first IC report to estimate fatalities in the US. 3/16/2020. You're welcome.
Report 12 - The global impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London


The CDC does say precisely that. All those figures came from the CDC. As does the grand total 12,754 US deaths since COVID-19 was first detected on US shores January 21, 2020. There will not be anywhere near 61,000 deaths with COVID-19 like we had with the influenza epidemic of 2017-2018.
Good grief, you can't even read your own charts. Again! There were more deaths YESTERDAY ALONE than during the worst week of the worst flu season ever -- and the death rates are continuing to climb.

And in case you missed it, Fauci rather explicitly said they expect anywhere from 100k to 240k deaths in the US -- and that is with attempts to tamp down the virus. And yeah, he's speaking for the CDC.


We make vaccinations every year for last year's strain of influenza.
Wrong, wrong, wrong. They prepare vaccines for multiple strains based on early samples and forecasts. They don't just take last year's strain. Egads.
Selecting Viruses for the Seasonal Influenza Vaccine | CDC


There were no vaccinations for SARS until the year after it came out. There were no vaccinations for the H1N1 virus until the following year. The same will be true with COVID-19.
Yes, we know. However, we got lucky with SARS, because patients developed symptoms before it became contagious, making it much easier than COVID-19 to detect, track and stop. H1N1 had a mortality rate of 0.02%. The lack of vaccines for SARS and MERS and Ebola, by the way, are (surprise!) part of what makes them potentially so dangeorus.


I would expect hospitals to be overwhelmed in communist sh*tholes like Italy and most of socialist Europe where their level of medicine is vastly inferior. That is just common sense.
Hello? McFly? They're getting overwhelmed all over the place, except in nations that severely clamped down. It won't be long before it is your local hospital's turn.


Once again, the lack of PPE is directly the result of the media-induced panic. As is all the clearing out of the grocery stores....
Oh, really? So we don't have enough ventilators not because we weren't prepared, but because people panicked? Everyone is running out of swabs to run the tests, because they freaked out? Prices for medical equipment quadrupled not because every hospital needs supplies, but because people are sheep?

Why didn't that happen in South Korea? Oh, yeah, it's because they were prepared. Hmmmmm.


....even the panic spending of $2 trillion by a Congress that has completely lost its collective marbles. All that evidence of panic that you choose to refuse to see.
Well, someone apparently doesn't run a small business, or knows any of the perhaps 1/3 of Americans who just lost their jobs.

You must also not have diabetes, or be obese, or have any sort of heart condition, or recently gotten chemo, and I guess you must be under 50. I.e. you aren't like close to half of the US, which are at high risk. Hmmmm.


To answer your last question, I take deliberate acts of terrorism by you leftists very seriously and have been advocating that the Democratic Party be classified a terrorist organization under Public Law 107-40.
Right, because governments taking actions intended to save you, despite your own bad judgment, now counts as "terrorism."

:roll:
 
It is not any different from any other influenza virus, just a different strain.
Incorrect.

Coronaviruses are not in the same family of viruses as influenza. Look it up.

Man, you can't even get the basics right.
 
It is not any different from any other influenza virus, just a different strain. And a predisposition towards ARDS is caused by all influenza viruses, which is why the CDC combines influenza and pneumonia deaths together. Influenza often leads to pneumonia or other pulmonary disorders.

This is dumb and wrong.
 
This is standard doomsday cult behavior. When the end of the world doesn't actually happen, it's attributed to the faith of those who believed it would.

The only difference is that everybody else in the world believe their scientists enough to shut down their countries and damage their economies (unless they did a good job on testing and tracing). Even those that did not want to do so like UK, which is now paying a big price for it. 45+ Governors and many more local officials have also believed their scientists.

But I understand that there are always arm-chair Nay-sayers who just don't get it and think that the rest of the world is a Cult while only they are the normal ones.

Guess what, when everyone else is crazy, chances are it's not them but YOU.
 
And you deserved it too. Claiming this is like a flu is ridiculous. People shut down not just the US but the whole world and still it's more deadly than the flu.
Apparently you didn't even read my thread title, let alone the op. I stated: " Latest Covid Trend Charts Confirm - No Worse than Really Bad Flu". Nowhere in my OP or afterwards did I say this is like the common flu. I repeatedly stated that the Covid Trend Charts confirmed that the number of deaths will be on the order of a really bad flu. (Note the focus on trend).

And now that the kazoo gang has earned itself the badge of red-faced shame, some are back-flipping to no longer attack the IHME data driven graphs but to make lemonaide out of their prior lemons of skepticism.

Therefore I award you the "order of hutzpah"...in recognition bold reinvention of your stance on this issue.

Taking these one by one
- Yes, number of deaths is clearly UNDERstated. A lot of dead people have not been getting CV19 tests.
- I never said you can't trust models - you just have to understand that thanks to Trump's failure in testing, we have limited data and thus models will have large ranges and be subject to change. Yet, they are better than having no models at all. Plus they can rely on data from other countries for some parts of the models (i.e. rate of spread, etc.)
- Yes, we clearly have no idea how many people are infected. If true infection death rate is 0.66%-1% as per some studies, that means we HAD 1.2-1.8 million people infected 2-8 weeks ago.
- I never claimed or heard anyone else claim that "the IHME model assumes 'full compliance'". If someone did, don't lump me in with them.

And yet for each one of those items either you, or one of peers in the collective, claimed that those points made the model, and charts, invalid. No matter how I explained it as irrelevant to the trend lines, the Bronx cheer from the left was almost uniform. In short, you have it both ways.

There are a lot of examples throughout the world that have this settled.

For all the ones that failed on testing (including USA), the earlier the lockdown, the better the curve (and yes, this assume similar population density). This is true at country levels. This is true at State levels (Washington vs NY). This is true at city levels (SF vs LA).

I understand you need to pretend like lockdowns are useless and we'll never know if we needed them but somehow, with exception of countries that had done testing and tracking done well, a LOT of countries, including those that resisted this, have come around to the same conclusion and decided to shut down their economies. Why do you think that is?

First, to be clear, I haven't said "social distancing" to be ineffective and therefore useless. I have said the differences between kind of social distancing and the accurate measurement of their effectiveness is not settled...i.e. unclear. That some jurisdictions have gone from being pacifists to immediately using a nuclear bomb, from an "abundance of caution" (aka "panic"), nothing other than if you want to use a "nuke" and destroy tens of millions of jobs, wipe out savings, and bring commercial activity to its knees this is a good way to do it.

Second, the SD lockdown nuke as official policy is not uncommon. However, examples using conventional SD weapons are not. Few nations have the backbone to try using a long-term campaign of voluntary social distancing, or mitigation measures such as those described in the Imperial College Report because a) you don't know what will actually happen and b) it doesn't matter because democratic politics require a political leader to incinerate the social economic structure just to look like he/she is doing something.

Third, while there are few experiments on this basis, clearly Sweden has (so far) the courage to try it with a degree of moderation (too needlessly moderate in my book, but still much different that the "get out the economic nuke" option).

Here is the bottom line. To everyone's surprise the models way over-shot the impact of COVID-19 and the load on the medical establishment. Folks like Fauci said we 'had to be near perfect' to keep the death toll under 250,000 or so, yet we were very imperfect and yet we are speaking of 60,000, not 250,000.

None are sure why, but obviously the modeling has missed some things, including the possibility that the virus was over-rated in virulence in all but the most dense urban environments and states.

In other words, it only took a fire brigade team to put out a few brushfire hotspots to end this epidemic and we didn't have to put 10s of millions out of work. Rather than admit that even the more conservative models overshot (the one's they said were too conservative) NOW they ex post facto rationalize how it confirmed everything they believed.

cont.
 
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It is not any different from any other influenza virus, just a different strain. And a predisposition towards ARDS is caused by all influenza viruses, which is why the CDC combines influenza and pneumonia deaths together. Influenza often leads to pneumonia or other pulmonary disorders.

Coronavirus is NOT a different strain of influenza virus. It has a different type of genetic material, structure, and mechanism.
 
I like squirrel, and they are bigger than mice and most bats.

Guinea pigs were bred by the Incas as finger food. I have never had them, but I hear they are tasty.
 
Guinea pigs were bred by the Incas as finger food. I have never had them, but I hear they are tasty.

Only problem is, now you don't know where that thing has been.
 
I'm not making a seasonal argument, I am arguing that the projections see the epidemic ending in early June or late May. If that happens, the COVID-19 cycle will be as long as flu season.

Have any theories on why those projections are showing a decline in May or June? Does it have anything to do with the social distancing? Do you believe the virus will just disappear then?


Or not. It almost seems like you'll be disappointed if it ends up being no more deadly than the flu...

Why does the model factor in social distancing if it's irrelevant?
 
Take away New York City, Detroit, and New Orleans and the media wouldn't have much to talk about.

The latest report shows there were a record number of deaths for one day, 1,895. 1,235 were in New York, New Jersey, Louisiana, and Michigan. To put this in perspective, 660 deaths occurred in the other 46 states. California, population-wise the largest state, had 51, 485 altogether in three and a half months time in a population of over 39 million.

Covid-19 is a virulent common cold virus, extremely contagious, and arguably the worst cold virus yet. By all means it should be avoided. Much like any other cold, complications from this virus interacting with other ailments such as lung disease, heart disease, diabetes, hypertension, pneumonia, influenza, etc. can cause death.

Evidence I have provided throughout this thread shows that, with minor exceptions, death occurs in the sick and elderly, many of whom were already in nursing homes and hospitals. Death also occurs among the poor and the homeless, many of whom were sick and lacking in health care, meaning health insurance.

When I said "minor exceptions," one thing I have noticed is that when person below the age of 50 dies from coronavirus, it makes the six o'clock news, and the media will not mention the condition of the person. It comes as no shock to anyone that young people get sick, too.

Many are weary of Trump's campaigning at around five or five-thirty every single weekday, and we are tired of the melodrama playing out in the news media every single day of the week.

The point being, those of us not living in New York, Michigan, or Louisiana and are in good health regardless of age have little to fear. It is just a cold, probably a little worse than the one you had last year.

Because it is so damn contagious, though, maintain precautions until this passes.
 
Coronavirus is NOT a different strain of influenza virus. It has a different type of genetic material, structure, and mechanism.

You mean like a cold...a corona virus, right?
 
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