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Good articles on a growing question. Will Trump and his team of advisors try and reinstate activity too early to save the economy and stock market? Though the Dow seems to be climbing right now, a double-bottom is predicted once the new unemployment and quarterly numbers come in. The rich somehow manage to get richer.
Investor who predicted the start of the 2009 bull market: Beware of a double bottom
"I think it's a little early to predict because given the lockdown that we have seen globally in so many countries around the world, the impact of this lockdown on businesses, it's not going to be seen immediately," said the Mobius Capital Partners founder. "So I believe that once the numbers start coming in, people will be somewhat disappointed." "I think we're probably maybe going to do a double bottom, jumping down again and pushing up again." "If you've got millions of unemployment claims, that means a lot of people will not be returning to the same jobs that they were at before."
U.S. Is Nowhere Close to Reopening the Economy, Experts Say
WASHINGTON - It is still very early in the U.S. effort to snuff a lethal pandemic by shutting down much of the economy. But there is a growing question - from workers, the White House, corporate boardrooms and small businesses on the brink - that hangs over what is essentially a war effort against a virus that has already killed more than 9,000 Americans.
There is no good answer yet, in part because we don't even have the data needed to formulate one.
Essentially, economists say, there won't be a fully functioning economy again until people are confident that they can go about their business without a high risk of catching the coronavirus.
Without more testing, "there's no way that you could set a time limit on when you could open up the economy," said Simon Mongey, a University of Chicago economist.
While they wait for the infection rate to fall, policymakers will need to provide more support to workers who have lost jobs or hours and to businesses teetering on the brink of failure. That could mean trillions more in small business loans, unemployment benefits and direct payments to individuals, and it could force the government to get creative in deploying money.
"It's important not to lift too early," said Emil Verner, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist who is a co-author of a new study that found that cities that took more aggressive steps to curb the 1918 flu pandemic in the United States emerged with stronger economies than cities that did less. "Because if we lift too early, the pandemic can take hold again. And that itself is very bad for the economy." (end)
Investor who predicted the start of the 2009 bull market: Beware of a double bottom
"I think it's a little early to predict because given the lockdown that we have seen globally in so many countries around the world, the impact of this lockdown on businesses, it's not going to be seen immediately," said the Mobius Capital Partners founder. "So I believe that once the numbers start coming in, people will be somewhat disappointed." "I think we're probably maybe going to do a double bottom, jumping down again and pushing up again." "If you've got millions of unemployment claims, that means a lot of people will not be returning to the same jobs that they were at before."
U.S. Is Nowhere Close to Reopening the Economy, Experts Say
WASHINGTON - It is still very early in the U.S. effort to snuff a lethal pandemic by shutting down much of the economy. But there is a growing question - from workers, the White House, corporate boardrooms and small businesses on the brink - that hangs over what is essentially a war effort against a virus that has already killed more than 9,000 Americans.
There is no good answer yet, in part because we don't even have the data needed to formulate one.
Essentially, economists say, there won't be a fully functioning economy again until people are confident that they can go about their business without a high risk of catching the coronavirus.
Without more testing, "there's no way that you could set a time limit on when you could open up the economy," said Simon Mongey, a University of Chicago economist.
While they wait for the infection rate to fall, policymakers will need to provide more support to workers who have lost jobs or hours and to businesses teetering on the brink of failure. That could mean trillions more in small business loans, unemployment benefits and direct payments to individuals, and it could force the government to get creative in deploying money.
"It's important not to lift too early," said Emil Verner, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist who is a co-author of a new study that found that cities that took more aggressive steps to curb the 1918 flu pandemic in the United States emerged with stronger economies than cities that did less. "Because if we lift too early, the pandemic can take hold again. And that itself is very bad for the economy." (end)
