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Re: Immunity Certificates- Italian regions testing for coronavirus immunity
We'll probably see some pause during the summer with a return in the fall. We are vulnerable until we have a vaccine or a really good antiviral or eventually achieve herd immunity.
But barring a bad mutation were looking at a year and a half or so until the "crisis" phase it over, and it will probably be diminishing "waves" in the process.
And you know what's an interesting thing to consider?
Had we done a hard lockdown for a month in february while doing a blitz on getting testing capacity ramped up we could be actually in control right now as much as could be. We'd have stopped the spread cold. That's the math. It's here and its all over the world. The threat would still be there until we get vaccines. But surveillance testing and contact tracing could easily have kept it in check and further controls could be applied where needed and the rest could continue to keep the wheels rolling.
It would have cost less. Much less. Lots of businesses that will go down now could have weathered a month.
And imagine if the United States had kicked this **** in the ass and could have stood as a proud beacon for the world in a time of global crisis. How much economic advantage we would have.
But there is no way we could have done that. Even with the kind of "Time to suck it up and do what Americans do best. Come together in a time of need" messaging that could easily be sold to most americans, too many would have openly rebelled against the idea. Would prefer the ugly "let nature take it's course" path to that temporary limitation of their liberty. And we'd just be where we are now, just a few months from now.
It's something to think about.
We'll probably see some pause during the summer with a return in the fall. We are vulnerable until we have a vaccine or a really good antiviral or eventually achieve herd immunity.
But barring a bad mutation were looking at a year and a half or so until the "crisis" phase it over, and it will probably be diminishing "waves" in the process.
And you know what's an interesting thing to consider?
Had we done a hard lockdown for a month in february while doing a blitz on getting testing capacity ramped up we could be actually in control right now as much as could be. We'd have stopped the spread cold. That's the math. It's here and its all over the world. The threat would still be there until we get vaccines. But surveillance testing and contact tracing could easily have kept it in check and further controls could be applied where needed and the rest could continue to keep the wheels rolling.
It would have cost less. Much less. Lots of businesses that will go down now could have weathered a month.
And imagine if the United States had kicked this **** in the ass and could have stood as a proud beacon for the world in a time of global crisis. How much economic advantage we would have.
But there is no way we could have done that. Even with the kind of "Time to suck it up and do what Americans do best. Come together in a time of need" messaging that could easily be sold to most americans, too many would have openly rebelled against the idea. Would prefer the ugly "let nature take it's course" path to that temporary limitation of their liberty. And we'd just be where we are now, just a few months from now.
It's something to think about.
