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We’re not bending the curve

TomFitz

TomFitz

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This was the most alarming part of the briefing yesterday.

We are not bending the curve.

I work in the road construction industry, a job that still takes me out on the road most days. Fortunately, social distancing is relatively easy to maintain.

However, in my travels, I have seen a lot of very disturbing things. I have noted on this forum, that my first hand experience tells me that the degree to which the precautions are being observed vary widely, even in my state, which is supposed to be on a stay at home order for any non esssential industry. (I expect to be laid off when this tightens, Notice I say WHEN, not IF).

I have seen the crowd at the convenience store standing around like they usually do on ordinary mornings. No signs of social distancing or protective wear. The topic is the virus, but they all seem to think it’s something happening somewhere else on their TV, and not their real lives. Ditto Wal Mart.

Then there’s the hardcore Trumpster crowd here, which shouts its belligerant denials all day long and collectively whistles past the graveyard.

Someone posted a thread here regarding which big city is next.

To me, that’s not the worst of it.

The worst of it is what is going to happen when this plague roars through the small towns, medium sized cities and rural areas of this country.

My personal observation is that people in rural areas are taking this thing a lot less seriously (in terms of their own precautions) than the urban population is. I have seen this first hand, and not just once. It’s very consistant.

So I was alarmed, but not surprised to see this map. It’s behind a paywall in the Times. Ordinarily I would not share it, for fear it might be a rules infraction.

But I think we all need to see it, and take stock of our own personal precautions.

There is danger ahead when you read this map.

Serious danger.

F39DC37F-7C6B-495D-9735-E29E82F79EE2.jpg
 
Are you suggesting that travel is analogous to interpersonal interactions? Do you have any data to back that up?
 
TomFitz said:
This was the most alarming part of the briefing yesterday.

We are not bending the curve.

I work in the road construction industry, a job that still takes me out on the road most days. Fortunately, social distancing is relatively easy to maintain.

However, in my travels, I have seen a lot of very disturbing things. I have noted on this forum, that my first hand experience tells me that the degree to which the precautions are being observed vary widely, even in my state, which is supposed to be on a stay at home order for any non esssential industry. (I expect to be laid off when this tightens, Notice I say WHEN, not IF).

I have seen the crowd at the convenience store standing around like they usually do on ordinary mornings. No signs of social distancing or protective wear. The topic is the virus, but they all seem to think it’s something happening somewhere else on their TV, and not their real lives. Ditto Wal Mart.

Then there’s the hardcore Trumpster crowd here, which shouts its belligerant denials all day long and collectively whistles past the graveyard.

Someone posted a thread here regarding which big city is next.

To me, that’s not the worst of it.

The worst of it is what is going to happen when this plague roars through the small towns, medium sized cities and rural areas of this country.

My personal observation is that people in rural areas are taking this thing a lot less seriously (in terms of their own precautions) than the urban population is. I have seen this first hand, and not just once. It’s very consistant.

So I was alarmed, but not surprised to see this map. It’s behind a paywall in the Times. Ordinarily I would not share it, for fear it might be a rules infraction.

But I think we all need to see it, and take stock of our own personal precautions.

There is danger ahead when you read this map.

Serious danger.

View attachment 67277070
Click to expand...

A lot of people do not respect this Bug.

We are going to have to learn the hard way.
 
Metric Mouse said:
Are you suggesting that travel is analogous to interpersonal interactions? Do you have any data to back that up?
Click to expand...

Not analogous but it aligns with. People who travel by definition aren't at home, which is the point of the map. The problem comes not from the travel itself but when they leave their cars.
 
ecofarm said:
Depends on the destination.
Click to expand...

So maybe none. Maybe some. Maybe "close to normal travel" in some parts of a country as large and diverse as the United States isn't as dangerous as it would be in other parts.

Makes that map kinda silly then.
 
Metric Mouse said:
So maybe none. Maybe some. Maybe "close to normal travel" in some parts of a country as large and diverse as the United States isn't as dangerous as it would be in other parts.

Makes that map kinda silly then.
Click to expand...

You're suggesting that for people who just wanna drive around the neighborhood or up and down the highway, no contact is involved? That's stupid.
 
JackA said:
Not analogous but it aligns with. People who travel by definition aren't at home, which is the point of the map. The problem comes not from the travel itself but when they leave their cars.
Click to expand...

Are they interacting with anyone when they get out of their car? How much danger is a rancher in Ohio traveling around checking cows in his fields?
 
Metric Mouse said:
Are you suggesting that travel is analogous to interpersonal interactions? Do you have any data to back that up?
Click to expand...

Moving around on this scale is increasing probability of spreading virus. When the system is more complex, it is more difficult to keep it error-free to prevent the virus from spreading. And I don't have data to back that up (it’s just my 2 brain cells rubbing against each other).
 
The good news is we're entering the month of April which ends the normal Flu season
 
ecofarm said:
You're suggesting that for people who just wanna drive around the neighborhood or up and down the highway, no contact is involved? That's stupid.
Click to expand...

Not necessarily, in many of those red areas, the distance to the grocery store is simply much further.
Where I live, I have 6 grocery stores, a walmart, Sam's club, and a Costco, within 3 miles.
For my Sister in the Country it is 15 miles to the small town store, and maybe 30 miles to a large grocery store or a Walmart.
What I can do, driving 5 miles, could take her 50 miles of driving to accomplish.
 
longview said:
Not necessarily, in many of those red areas, the distance to the grocery store is simply much further.
Where I live, I have 6 grocery stores, a walmart, Sam's club, and a Costco, within 3 miles.
For my Sister in the Country it is 15 miles to the small town store, and maybe 30 miles to a large grocery store or a Walmart.
What I can do, driving 5 miles, could take her 50 miles of driving to accomplish.
Click to expand...

And the end result is the same. Contact with others.

It's flat moronic to suggest people drive around without stopping and without contacting others.
 
ecofarm said:
You're suggesting that for people who just wanna drive around the neighborhood or up and down the highway, no contact is involved? That's stupid.
Click to expand...

What would be dangerous about going for a drive? (Other than the risk of a mv crash)

And my point was not that people are just "driving down the highway." It was that in some parts of the country significant driving distances can be involved for simple things like going to the grocery store, going to essential work, checking cows in the field or transporting semi trucks of vital supplies to communities across the country.

All of which would be "normal" for a map like this. Clearly a farmer checking cows in Ohio is not as dangerous as a New Yorker riding the subway, even though the farmer would easily travel many more miles.
 
FinnFox said:
Moving around on this scale is increasing probability of spreading virus. When the system is more complex, it is more difficult to keep it error-free to prevent the virus from spreading. And I don't have data to back that up (it’s just my 2 brain cells rubbing against each other).
Click to expand...

Is it? Is a trucker driving 200 miles across the state of Wyoming spreading the virus more than a New Yorker riding the subway for 1 mile?
 
Metric Mouse said:
What would be dangerous about going for a drive? (Other than the risk of a mv crash)
Click to expand...

Yeah, there's a lot of people driving around and not going anywhere.


:screwy
 
ecofarm said:
And the end result is the same. Contact with others.

It's flat moronic to suggest people drive around without stopping, without contacting others.
Click to expand...
But the miles driven, is not related to the number of contacts!
A 50 mile round trip to a grocery store in a bigger town, could have less contact than, a persons walk to the corner store, a few blocks from their home.
 
longview said:
But the miles driven, is not related to the number of contacts!
A 50 mile round trip to a grocery store in a bigger town, could have less contact than, a persons walk to the corner store, a few blocks from their home.
Click to expand...

No one cares how far the drive is. The contact is the concern. We don't give a damn if you drive one minute or one hour to the hair salon, it's a ****ing problem.
 
ecofarm said:
Yeah, there's a lot of people driving around and not going anywhere.


:screwy
Click to expand...

Straw man. No one said they weren't going anywhere. The question was how many unnecessary interactions do they have?
 
Metric Mouse said:
Straw man. No one said they weren't going anywhere. The question was how many unnecessary interactions do they have?
Click to expand...

At least one each time time they leave their house.

No one is driving around in circles and returning home. Do you get that?
 
Metric Mouse said:
Are they interacting with anyone when they get out of their car? How much danger is a rancher in Ohio traveling around checking cows in his fields?
Click to expand...

Is a Connecticut housewife interacting with anyone when she goes to her ATM wearing gloves? The map obviously paints a general picture.
 
ecofarm said:
No one cares how far the drive is. The contact is the concern. We don't give a damn if you drive one minute or one hour to the hair salon, it's a ****ing problem.
Click to expand...

Are they going to the hair salon? Or simply doing their once a week trip to the grocery store, or driving to their job at the hospital? Does the map say anything about hair salons?
 
Metric Mouse said:
Are they going to the hair salon? Or simply doing their once a week trip to the grocery store, or driving to their job at the hospital? Does the map say anything about hair salons?
Click to expand...

Locked down populations still go to grocery stores and jobs.
 
JackA said:
Is a Connecticut housewife interacting with anyone when she goes to her ATM wearing gloves? The map obviously paints a general picture.
Click to expand...

I don't know. Money is pretty dirty though. Why doesn't she just order things with a credit card?
 
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