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We now got to more than a thousand deaths a day

Aristaeus said:
Acknowledging reality is not hoping for it.
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Its a prediction that has yet to happen, even though you and the others seem to really want it to be true, which is sad.
 
Stealers Wheel said:
330,000,000 Americans
60% = 198,000,000 Americans
1% of 198,000,000 Americans = 1,980,000 dead

We did not lose that many lives in all the wars the US has ever been involved combined. It would be a tragedy of epic proportions.
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It would be really bad if we lost that many. It does not look like we will lose that many but I won't criticize those who fear we will if we don't. I'll just be glad if we don't.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
Trump leads a populous rebellion against Americas failed leadership, and he is President......Its Complicated.
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Excuses are for losers my friend. You can't have it both ways.

And btw your avatar is an owl not a hawk. :lamo
 
PoS said:
Its a prediction that has yet to happen, even though you and the others seem to really want it to be true, which is sad.
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It's a prediction based on the rapidly rising number of cases, unless you think that people are magically going to stop dying. And to suggest that we want it to be true is a scummy comment even by your low standards.
 
PoS said:
Its a prediction that has yet to happen, even though you and the others seem to really want it to be true, which is sad.
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Step 1: PoS makes naive prediction that is unsupported by most experts
Step 2: people point this out
Step 3: YoU wAnT pEoPlE tO dIe!!!!111!!!oneone!!
 
tacomancer said:
Step 1: PoS makes naive prediction that is unsupported by most experts
Step 2: people point this out
Step 3: YoU wAnT pEoPlE tO dIe!!!!111!!!oneone!!
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Ive never made a single prediction, so stop lying. If you want more people to die just to prove yourselves right somehow, hey thats you.

Aristaeus said:
It's a prediction based on the rapidly rising number of cases, unless you think that people are magically going to stop dying. And to suggest that we want it to be true is a scummy comment even by your low standards.
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You seem to want to believe its true, even when it hasnt happened yet. Thats proof enough.
 
PoS said:
Ive never made a single prediction, so stop lying. If you want more people to die just to prove yourselves right somehow, hey thats you.



You seem to want to believe its true, even when it hasnt happened yet. Thats proof enough.
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You are really sticking to step 3 aren't you? :lol:
 
PoS said:
Well youre proving me right...
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:shrug: Ok I will call your bluff.

Please show me where I have posted about wanting people to die or being happy that people are dying as a result of this pandemic.

Direct statements only.
 
ecofarm said:
Endemic only means exclusive or nearly exclusive to a geography. It's sometimes presumed to mean originating from because most endemic species and languages originated at their locations. Kangaroos are endemic to Australia. Not because they come from there; because they're found only there.

It's not about isolating. It's about achieving containment where possible. A few rural counties can prevent Miami's fire from burning north of the Lake. Now that they're locked down, perhaps they will succeed.
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No. The virus is widespread already in the US population.

A month ago this might have been a valid way to consider mitigation. It’s not anymore.

The horse is out of the barn, or maybe a better analogy is that the phone call is coming from inside the house!
 
There are but a few known facts at this time. We know the number of people who have tested positive for the COVID-19 virus. We know the number of deaths that have been ascribed to the virus. We know, perhaps with less precision, the number of people who have recovered from the virus.

The virus has spread to such an extent that we can no longer effectively detect, trace and isolate it. We can slow the rate of spread through reducing the likelihood of contracting it: physical distancing, etc.. It will spread until all who are susceptible to it have contracted it or, possibly, until such factors as ambient temperature or the development and dissemination of an effective vaccine brings its spread to a halt.

Any estimate of the final number of people in the US who will contract the disease should be given wide +/- limits, as should the eventual number of assignable deaths.

Meanwhile, we wait and track.
 
PoS said:
Thats what youre hoping for, anyway.
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Nope, I and most Americans are not. I just wish that Trump, etc., Fox, etc., cared about America and all of its citizens.
 
GreatNews2night said:
April 1st brought us 1,049 new deaths, and no, it's not an April Fool's prank.

It used to double every 3 days... now it's doubling every other day (558 two days ago).

If we see two weeks of this pattern before it flattens out and starts to shrink, well get to 134,272 new deaths every other day. Whoa.

Hopefully it will start to slow down both because the virus might run out of new people to infect, and because of the containment measures partially put in place.
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Deaths will definitely escalate. Expect 5% mortality among those 217,000-pus with active cases. That's about half the Italian rate. So I doubt I am being pessimistic with that figure. Best case of 10,000 additional deaths this time next week. And, that is definitely best case.
 
tacomancer said:
:shrug: Ok I will call your bluff.

Please show me where I have posted about wanting people to die or being happy that people are dying as a result of this pandemic.

Direct statements only.
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Yeah. Nobody's happy about any of this, and this pandemic has just completely upended everyone's lives. The horror stories that I've read about (and seen though video), are nothing short of terrifying and unbelievably tragic.

This is clearly going to get worse, and accepting that reality is not clasping your hands together, hoping that lots of people will die. Nobody wants that.
 
ecofarm said:
Endemic only means exclusive or nearly exclusive to a geography.
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I'm sorry, my friend, but you're using the term incorrectly. threegoofs had it right, in epidemiological terms.
 
Threegoofs said:
No. The virus is widespread already in the US population.

A month ago this might have been a valid way to consider mitigation. It’s not anymore.

The horse is out of the barn, or maybe a better analogy is that the phone call is coming from inside the house!
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It does appear epidemiology employs the term in a different manner.
 
Stealers Wheel said:
330,000,000 Americans
60% = 198,000,000 Americans
1% of 198,000,000 Americans = 1,980,000 dead

We did not lose that many lives in all the wars the US has ever been involved combined. It would be a tragedy of epic proportions.
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Marke continues to be in denial. The virus will take care of that in the next 3 weeks.
 
ecofarm said:
Endemic only means exclusive or nearly exclusive to a geography. It's sometimes presumed to mean originating from because most endemic species and languages originated at their locations. Kangaroos are endemic to Australia. Not because they come from there; because they're found only there.

It's not about isolating. It's about achieving containment where possible. A few rural counties can prevent Miami's fire from burning north of the Lake. Now that they're locked down, perhaps they will succeed.
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As others have mentioned, this is not the meaning of the term in epidemiology. Threegoofs is right.
 
Aristaeus said:
Looking at the graphs between cases and deaths growth, there's about an 8 day lag between new cases and people from those new cases dying. So the 1,000 deaths a day is coming from 10-11,000 new cases a day. The past 5 days, the US has had 20-25,000 new cases a day. I would expect at least 2-2,500 deaths a day between April 5th - April 10th. Where it goes after that, we'll see.
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Yep. The lag may be even longer than that, as it takes some patients some 14 days between first symptoms and death.
 
EnigmaO01 said:
Someone said? Is that how you get your news? Someone said? :doh
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It's the same some people Trump relies on (they live in his head).
 
calamity said:
Deaths will definitely escalate. Expect 5% mortality among those 217,000-pus with active cases. That's about half the Italian rate. So I doubt I am being pessimistic with that figure. Best case of 10,000 additional deaths this time next week. And, that is definitely best case.
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We don't know what's the real case-fatality rate. In epidemiology, this is only calculated AFTER the end of an epidemic, because during it, we don't know exactly how many cases are out there, including the mild and asymptomatic untested and undiagnosed cases. So I don't expect that even in Italy their 10% rate will hold. Some epidemiologists have estimated that the real case-fatality rate might end up being something like 1.4%. I've been working with even lower numbers, such as 0.8%.

Anyway, we don't know. We'll see. The way this is going, though, is not good, there's no denying it.
 
Stealers Wheel said:
330,000,000 Americans
60% = 198,000,000 Americans
1% of 198,000,000 Americans = 1,980,000 dead

We did not lose that many lives in all the wars the US has ever been involved combined. It would be a tragedy of epic proportions.
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It's true. Americans also experience great tragedies just like people of other nations, and the loss of life can be enormous.
 
GreatNews2night said:
We don't know what's the real case-fatality rate. In epidemiology, this is only calculated AFTER the end of an epidemic, because during it, we don't know exactly how many cases are out there, including the mild and asymptomatic untested and undiagnosed cases. So I don't expect that even in Italy their 10% rate will hold. Some epidemiologists have estimated that the real case-fatality rate might end up being something like 1.4%. I've been working with even lower numbers, such as 0.8%.

Anyway, we don't know. We'll see. The way this is going, though, is not good, there's no denying it.
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At the time of the H1N1 pandemic in 2009, the experience rate of deaths was higher than the actual estimate after a more thorough testing survey was conducted. But, it's still an estimate. Your .8% estimate could be right, including all the mild and asymptomatic cases, which are currently missing from the data. But even at that rate, 0.8% would be catestrophic.

You're also right that it is idiocy to highlight the "recovery" rate (which is remarkably low and lagging the death rate significantly) when the vast majority of the cases are mild. It's the 20% that require hospitalization and 5% that require ICU care that are significant. But, that doesn't matter to those who don't care about others but only want to listen to themselves pontificate incessantly and inaccurately.
 
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