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How long can this continue?

joko104

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I've commented before that other than mega billion dollar companies, companies deeply tied into government (like defense contractors) or a tunnel vision (currently ventilators and masks), government never considers or communicates with the private sector at all. This not only leads to idiotic changes or rules, but serious production problems and even some sector saying "to hell with this" and just getting out of it.

I'll try not to ramble, but do wish to make the point. Someone we know told us yesterday a gallon of milk he bought the day before turned to a white gel overnight. It was not spoiled or near expiration date. I know what that means. Some dairy farmer ran out of some chemical he uses so used another than generally works for liquids, but did not know it reacts with milk. That then could do so to all the other milk it was added to down the food processing path. While people think of food products in terms of mega companies and grocery stores, actually food is a network originating for hundreds of thousands of small sources - domestic and international. Most people don't know there are unnamed chemicals in nearly all consumable products. For example, bottled purified water has chemicals added to it, with the USDA approving doing so - and approving not stating so on the label because it toxic. Other than salt and citrus, most preservatives are poisons. However, the opinion is tiny trace amounts don't hurt you and the dangers of spoiled and contaminated foods and liquids is just too great in the alternative.

Yesterday, I spent most the day buying up the last of a key ingredient for our unique signature product - buying the last of small amounts all over the country - where before I'd just place 1 order once a month. However, now a month's supply is a 5 day supply. Tomorrow I will pursue buying the last in New Zealand and Australia (the EU long out of it). Most mega companies will not bother with tiny purchases and will just be out of inventory. Most small scale companies don't have the funds to carry much inventory. So I am finding it, but that will end.

The rest of yesterday and today I am seeking out and buying up the last of a particularly popular size and style bottle - and any even close to being like it. I'm finding 500 here, a thousand there, 100, and the "big score" of 10,000. If lucky I'll be able to find maybe 20,000. At current levels we need over 100,000 minimally for the next 30 days, and that might not be enough. We're down to about 10,000 or so. Thousands of other companies use that bottle style and size. NONE can get it. The bottle suppliers all estimate replacement inventory the end of April. But I know what that means. It means they hope to get delivery from China by then.

It is just assumed "don't worry, they'll be food." "Don't worry, there will still be over-the-counter drugs." "Don't worry, there will be everything to electric companies to replace blow transformers." "Don't worry, there will be plenty of ........" How does the government know that? The government doesn't know that at all. The government does not communicate with the private sector. There is no assurance empty food shelves will be filled. There is no assurance food processors will have what they need so the food and beverages are safe. Switching to other chemicals or make shift measures carries many risks as well. Masks and ventilators aren't the only thing hospitals can run out of. Here, their supplier of distilled water (true distilled water) just delivered the last 30 five gallon jugs of true zero ppm water - to us. They don't know when they'll have more. Want distilled water? Maybe WalMart has some left. Good enough for a hospital? It's not good enough for us. We tested it a couple years ago. ALMOST zero ppms. ALMOST means NOT distilled water. We are stocking up everything we can realizing everything is going to rapidly cease to be available anywhere in the country - or the free world.

If we lose packaging ability or inventory ability, many food processors and other operations of others lose the ability to do their thing too. Some of our producing commercial customers are going into panic mode. How can they keep operating? At first, it was "YAHOO! We're making money now!' with huge sales increases. But this is becoming "how do we stay in business without what we must have?!"
 
Needless to say, the prices of all inventory items is increasing rapidly, and this will be passed on to consumers. For us, some key items are costing over 200% more. As suppliers sell the very last of their inventory, they do raise prices because it is their last sales for an unknown period of time. So why not?

Continuing to 24/7 frantically urgie everyone to live in terrified panic by the MSM facilitates price gouging and more hording - now by companies too such as ours because there is no choice for us. But it isn't hording as we will use it all - and will need more quickly. Desperate people will become violent. People will fight over the last item on the shelf. People will pay a 10X mark up for that last item. In this, the value of money crashes - and you can't eat gold bars and silver eagle coins if that is your emergency alternative funds.

I don't think this can go on much longer without shortages and serious permanent harm across the manufacturing and production. But how to keep supplying the public isn't even being explored by the government. They just assume everything will be fine. I think it will be ok (with increasing problems) until the end of April. Then it could get very serious in terms of shortages. You won't hear anything about this on the MSM - because neither government nor the MSM talks to the producing and manufacturing private sector. I'm confident not one farmer, dairy farm, rancher or any one else on the primary initial levels of food production has gotten 1 call from anyone in any level of government asking "do you have everything you need to keep operating?" We haven't. I spoke with a Class 1 company (meaning the most critical of all - we are Class 2 in their category, which is still quite high). No one from government has asked them if there are inventory problems.

I expect food quality to decline very quickly. And then increasingly become dangerous in terms of contamination. This situation can not continue indefinitely.
 
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Let's review...

Continuing to 24/7 frantically urging everyone to live in terrified panic on the MSM facilitates price gouging and more hording

So you blame MSM for the panic... and then ...

I think it will be ok (with increasing problems) until the end of April. Then it could get very serious in terms of shortages. You won't hear anything about this on the MSM - because neither government nor the MSM talks to the producing and manufacturing private sector.

... you are spreading panic while saying MSM is not reporting enough on it.
 
When you are giving people $600 a week on top of their unemployment checks plus $1200 then this will continue for so long as we keep rewarding people not to work.
 
When you are giving people $600 a week on top of their unemployment checks plus $1200 then this will continue for so long as we keep rewarding people not to work.

Blaming the poor. Check.
 
When you are giving people $600 a week on top of their unemployment checks plus $1200 then this will continue for so long as we keep rewarding people not to work.

That is senseless. People will get 600 a week for unemployment as long as the crisis goes on, then they will go back to work. The money does not dictate the crisis, the virus does
 
When you are giving people $600 a week on top of their unemployment checks plus $1200 then this will continue for so long as we keep rewarding people not to work.

Man, if I had only known that the path to the easy life was to be quarantined in my home for months on end while being scared of going outside for fear of catching a deadly contagion, I would have tried to make a global pandemic possible years ago.
 
I've commented before that other than mega billion dollar companies, companies deeply tied into government (like defense contractors) or a tunnel vision (currently ventilators and masks), government never considers or communicates with the private sector at all. This not only leads to idiotic changes or rules, but serious production problems and even some sector saying "to hell with this" and just getting out of it.

This premise is completely false. Industry interests have significant influence over every law governing them and every regulation that are subject to. Why do you think they spend such massive amounts of money on political campaigns, lobbying and so on. Hell at times they even write their own regulations and the draft bills governing them.

You elected them to write new laws. They’re letting corporations do it instead. – Center for Public Integrity

For example, for every dollar environmental and conservation groups spending lobbying government, oil and gas will spend between 100 and 200 dollars - and that is just one industry sector.

In light of that, the fact that state and local governments have taken the extraordinary step of essentially shutting down their economies to curb the spread of Covid-19 should tell you how serious the risks of an uncontrolled spread of this pandemic would be.
 
Man, if I had only known that the path to the easy life was to be quarantined in my home for months on end while being scared of going outside for fear of catching a deadly contagion, I would have tried to make a global pandemic possible years ago.

How lazy and lacking in any self respect and integrity must one be to think that if you give someone 1200 dollars and up their unemployment checks for 4 months, you are rewarding and enticing them not to work? I can't imagine how anyone could think that other than if they were projecting somehow.
 
This premise is completely false. Industry interests have significant influence over every law governing them and every regulation that are subject to. Why do you think they spend such massive amounts of money on political campaigns, lobbying and so on. Hell at times they even write their own regulations and the draft bills governing them.

You elected them to write new laws. They’re letting corporations do it instead. – Center for Public Integrity

For example, for every dollar environmental and conservation groups spending lobbying government, oil and gas will spend between 100 and 200 dollars - and that is just one industry sector.

In light of that, the fact that state and local governments have taken the extraordinary step of essentially shutting down their economies to curb the spread of Covid-19 should tell you how serious the risks of an uncontrolled spread of this pandemic would be.

The point joko is making, and it is a serious one, is that our government(s) have shut down so many "non-essential" businesses and services that it will soon start to affect "essential" services.

How many different people and companies are required to work in tandem and interdependently to get, say, those fresh eggs, or the butter, or the bread onto our store shelves? Quite a lot, by all indicators. If one of them is shut down, or the cost of business is raised on one of the businesses, it causes a negative cascade that effects all the other businesses in the supply chain which ends up being placed upon us, the consumers, in the end.
 
When you are giving people $600 a week on top of their unemployment checks plus $1200 then this will continue for so long as we keep rewarding people not to work.

Unemployment benefits should be enough to survive on but not much more, this is to incentivize people to get back into the employment sector where possible. If your financial payments to the unemployed are too large, you might incentivize them to stay home, but that is just the problem for a minor section of the populous.

You also have to prod them to take a job, if they refuse a fitting job once, 10% less money, do it twice 25% and three times 50% off their benefits, refuse a 4th time with no good reason, well than it will be bye bye benefits.
 
The point joko is making, and it is a serious one, is that our government(s) have shut down so many "non-essential" businesses and services that it will soon start to affect "essential" services.

How many different people and companies are required to work in tandem and interdependently to get, say, those fresh eggs, or the butter, or the bread onto our store shelves? Quite a lot, by all indicators. If one of them is shut down, or the cost of business is raised on one of the businesses, it causes a negative cascade that effects all the other businesses in the supply chain which ends up being placed upon us, the consumers, in the end.

If you read a typical stay at home order for a city or area, they generally account for that. Thus if a business is not explicitly allowed to stay open, but are essential to businesses explicitly deemed essential, then that business can stay open as well.
 
Man, if I had only known that the path to the easy life was to be quarantined in my home for months on end while being scared of going outside for fear of catching a deadly contagion, I would have tried to make a global pandemic possible years ago.

Most democrats would. They are entitled like that.
 
I've commented before that other than mega billion dollar companies, companies deeply tied into government (like defense contractors) or a tunnel vision (currently ventilators and masks), government never considers or communicates with the private sector at all. This not only leads to idiotic changes or rules, but serious production problems and even some sector saying "to hell with this" and just getting out of it.

I'll try not to ramble, but do wish to make the point. Someone we know told us yesterday a gallon of milk he bought the day before turned to a white gel overnight. It was not spoiled or near expiration date. I know what that means. Some dairy farmer ran out of some chemical he uses so used another than generally works for liquids, but did not know it reacts with milk. That then could do so to all the other milk it was added to down the food processing path. While people think of food products in terms of mega companies and grocery stores, actually food is a network originating for hundreds of thousands of small sources - domestic and international. Most people don't know there are unnamed chemicals in nearly all consumable products. For example, bottled purified water has chemicals added to it, with the USDA approving doing so - and approving not stating so on the label because it toxic. Other than salt and citrus, most preservatives are poisons. However, the opinion is tiny trace amounts don't hurt you and the dangers of spoiled and contaminated foods and liquids is just too great in the alternative.

Yesterday, I spent most the day buying up the last of a key ingredient for our unique signature product - buying the last of small amounts all over the country - where before I'd just place 1 order once a month. However, now a month's supply is a 5 day supply. Tomorrow I will pursue buying the last in New Zealand and Australia (the EU long out of it). Most mega companies will not bother with tiny purchases and will just be out of inventory. Most small scale companies don't have the funds to carry much inventory. So I am finding it, but that will end.

The rest of yesterday and today I am seeking out and buying up the last of a particularly popular size and style bottle - and any even close to being like it. I'm finding 500 here, a thousand there, 100, and the "big score" of 10,000. If lucky I'll be able to find maybe 20,000. At current levels we need over 100,000 minimally for the next 30 days, and that might not be enough. We're down to about 10,000 or so. Thousands of other companies use that bottle style and size. NONE can get it. The bottle suppliers all estimate replacement inventory the end of April. But I know what that means. It means they hope to get delivery from China by then.

It is just assumed "don't worry, they'll be food." "Don't worry, there will still be over-the-counter drugs." "Don't worry, there will be everything to electric companies to replace blow transformers." "Don't worry, there will be plenty of ........" How does the government know that? The government doesn't know that at all. The government does not communicate with the private sector. There is no assurance empty food shelves will be filled. There is no assurance food processors will have what they need so the food and beverages are safe. Switching to other chemicals or make shift measures carries many risks as well. Masks and ventilators aren't the only thing hospitals can run out of. Here, their supplier of distilled water (true distilled water) just delivered the last 30 five gallon jugs of true zero ppm water - to us. They don't know when they'll have more. Want distilled water? Maybe WalMart has some left. Good enough for a hospital? It's not good enough for us. We tested it a couple years ago. ALMOST zero ppms. ALMOST means NOT distilled water. We are stocking up everything we can realizing everything is going to rapidly cease to be available anywhere in the country - or the free world.

If we lose packaging ability or inventory ability, many food processors and other operations of others lose the ability to do their thing too. Some of our producing commercial customers are going into panic mode. How can they keep operating? At first, it was "YAHOO! We're making money now!' with huge sales increases. But this is becoming "how do we stay in business without what we must have?!"

We're 30 days away from complete societal breakdown unless someone shows some leadership at some level.

30 days.
 
That is senseless. People will get 600 a week for unemployment as long as the crisis goes on, then they will go back to work. The money does not dictate the crisis, the virus does

No people will get their regular unemployment PLUS $600 a week so they will not go back to work as long as possible which will be easy since so many businesses will close for good as a result of workers refusing to work
 
How lazy and lacking in any self respect and integrity must one be to think that if you give someone 1200 dollars and up their unemployment checks for 4 months, you are rewarding and enticing them not to work? I can't imagine how anyone could think that other than if they were projecting somehow.

Keep in mind these are the same voters who plugged for Trump, then were shocked he wanted to repeal the ACA. Critical thinking skills best left out side the polling booth.
 
Let's review...



So you blame MSM for the panic... and then ...



... you are spreading panic while saying MSM is not reporting enough on it.

That is not responsive and foolish if you think 100,000,000 people are reading this forum. Rather, in confirms you fully supporting deliberately false information to the public by both the government and MSM.

The MSM has declared there are no problems, no causes of death, no problems or future problems other than you dying of covid-19. The government and MSM outright lied telling people NOT to stock up - "no more than a couple weeks" - and it was a lie based upon nothing every time they said it - and I knew it a lie every time they said so. Did you?
 
Unemployment benefits should be enough to survive on but not much more, this is to incentivize people to get back into the employment sector where possible. If your financial payments to the unemployed are too large, you might incentivize them to stay home, but that is just the problem for a minor section of the populous.

You also have to prod them to take a job, if they refuse a fitting job once, 10% less money, do it twice 25% and three times 50% off their benefits, refuse a 4th time with no good reason, well than it will be bye bye benefits.

You can't eat unemployment benefits. Unemployment benefits will not get you perscription and OTC drugs. Money is only worth what it can buy - and how much it costs.
 
The point joko is making, and it is a serious one, is that our government(s) have shut down so many "non-essential" businesses and services that it will soon start to affect "essential" services.

How many different people and companies are required to work in tandem and interdependently to get, say, those fresh eggs, or the butter, or the bread onto our store shelves? Quite a lot, by all indicators. If one of them is shut down, or the cost of business is raised on one of the businesses, it causes a negative cascade that effects all the other businesses in the supply chain which ends up being placed upon us, the consumers, in the end.

That's it.

It only takes 1 missing item or tool in an assembly line to completely shut the assembly line. If the automaker runs out of just one size fastener, all auto production comes to a stop until some alternative can be made - and quick fix can be a bad or dangerous quick fix. Sure, they can rivet it. Will the rivet hold? Or pull thru the plastic? Cause rapid corrosion from dissimilar metals? Will vibration cause the alternator to fall off after 20,000, into the radiator causing thousands of dollars of damage, a billion in warranty claims and/or fatal accidents? They can weld it too, but welding some materials and angles can not take long term vibration stress while a nut and bolt or screw can.

The same is true for all production, including food, medical supplies etc etc. Essentially, it all is on assembly lines - involving numerous companies and components. It only takes one missing element to bring it to a complete stop or require best-guess fast alternatives - leading to such as milk that turns to gel in a day. Oops. Bad quick fix choice. Not everyone and every company is qualified to instantly find and implement instant alternatives to deal with inventory shortage.
 
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China has not been manufacturing at any where near their normal run rate for some time now. They are just recently getting back up to speed. That donut hole in the supply chain is hitting us.
 
No people will get their regular unemployment PLUS $600 a week so they will not go back to work as long as possible which will be easy since so many businesses will close for good as a result of workers refusing to work

Do you understand that once the crisis is over, that the $600 will cease.
 
We are in recession now, and if we are not back to work by 1 June, we will go into Depression.

That will depend on the Virus, and I wish Trump and the national and state governments acted sooner.

How soon and how good a vax will determine how quickly we are able to return to the level of economic activity of January.
 
If you read a typical stay at home order for a city or area, they generally account for that. Thus if a business is not explicitly allowed to stay open, but are essential to businesses explicitly deemed essential, then that business can stay open as well.

Which defeats the entire of purpose of stay at home orders because virtually every business is looking for the loophole to stay open.

My tobaccconist shop was closed by the state because it’s non essential. Another one by my house is allowed to stay open because in addition to cigars they sell candy bars and beer and so they were allowed to be classed as a grocery store.

Maybe we should just let businesses and the free market determine essential.
 
The point joko is making, and it is a serious one, is that our government(s) have shut down so many "non-essential" businesses and services that it will soon start to affect "essential" services.

How many different people and companies are required to work in tandem and interdependently to get, say, those fresh eggs, or the butter, or the bread onto our store shelves? Quite a lot, by all indicators. If one of them is shut down, or the cost of business is raised on one of the businesses, it causes a negative cascade that effects all the other businesses in the supply chain which ends up being placed upon us, the consumers, in the end.

What you don’t understand is that leaving all non-essential businesses open along with schools, social events and churches would spread the virus much faster. Then the virus would shut the government down
 
We are in recession now, and if we are not back to work by 1 June, we will go into Depression.

That will depend on the Virus, and I wish Trump and the national and state governments acted sooner.

How soon and how good a vax will determine how quickly we are able to return to the level of economic activity of January.

We should send the country back to work before May and just say “tough” if you get the virus.

This is based on the idea you have an affirmative right to not get sick and this is enforceable by the government. Which is a faulty line of reasoning for many reasons. If we go into depression then many more people will die then from the virus. Poverty takes a decade off of your life, isolation leads to drug use and suicide, etc. letting the crooks out of jail will result in more murders and crimes
 
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