Math up-date.

We have two daily figures available to us. These are the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 infections and the number of deaths assigned to the virus in the US.

Calculating the day over day change, the percent increase in confirmed cases has dropped from a high of 73% on 3/19 to 15% on 3/29 and 3/30/2020.

The mortality rate as a percent of confirmed cases of viral infection reached a low of 1.2% for the period 3/22-24 and then began climbing, reaching 1.93% on 3/30/2020.

Using the base period of 3/22-24 with its mortality rate of 1.2 and computing from it the probable number of confirmed cases of infection should testing have been comparable to the base period, the number of confirmed cases of infection for 3/30/2020 would be 226,500 instead of the reported 164359.

And so it goes.

Regards, stay well and be thankful you're not one of the '15'.

Torus34 said:

We have two daily figures available to us. These are the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 infections and the number of deaths assigned to the virus in the US.

Calculating the day over day change, the percent increase in confirmed cases has dropped from a high of 73% on 3/19 to 15% on 3/29 and 3/30/2020.

The mortality rate as a percent of confirmed cases of viral infection reached a low of 1.2% for the period 3/22-24 and then began climbing, reaching 1.93% on 3/30/2020.

Using the base period of 3/22-24 with its mortality rate of 1.2 and computing from it the probable number of confirmed cases of infection should testing have been comparable to the base period, the number of confirmed cases of infection for 3/30/2020 would be 226,500 instead of the reported 164359.

And so it goes.

Regards, stay well and be thankful you're not one of the '15'.

Click to expand...

What does this mean?

Not much gets past me at this stage of my life, but U got me.




tyvm

Hawkeye10 said:

What does this mean?

Not much gets past me at this stage of my life, but U got me.




tyvm

Click to expand...

Hi! Thank you for your response. The '15' refers to a quote. Here it is:

"And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done." President of the United States of America Donald Trump.

Regards, and stay well.

Torus34 said:

Hi! Thank you for your response. The '15' refers to a quote. Here it is:

"And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done." President of the United States of America Donald Trump.

Regards, and stay well.

Click to expand...

Hmmmmmmm

Trump is always selling, he is a salesman.....this is what they do..... if you dont approve you might consider voting for someone else.

Regards.

In the OP I presented data and a minimal bit of number-crunching. I did not discuss the inferences which could be drawn. Should anyone wish to discuss further uses of the raw data, I'd be pleased to respond.

Regards to all.

Torus34 said:

We have two daily figures available to us. These are the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 infections and the number of deaths assigned to the virus in the US.

Calculating the day over day change, the percent increase in confirmed cases has dropped from a high of 73% on 3/19 to 15% on 3/29 and 3/30/2020.

The mortality rate as a percent of confirmed cases of viral infection reached a low of 1.2% for the period 3/22-24 and then began climbing, reaching 1.93% on 3/30/2020.

Using the base period of 3/22-24 with its mortality rate of 1.2 and computing from it the probable number of confirmed cases of infection should testing have been comparable to the base period, the number of confirmed cases of infection for 3/30/2020 would be 226,500 instead of the reported 164359.

And so it goes.

Regards, stay well and be thankful you're not one of the '15'.

Click to expand...

Be very careful using the percent of increase as proof of anything. If a person gains 5 pounds of body weight every week - that person will become quite obese, yet each week their percent of body weight increase will decrease.

Torus34 said:

In the OP I presented data and a minimal bit of number-crunching. I did not discuss the inferences which could be drawn. Should anyone wish to discuss further uses of the raw data, I'd be pleased to respond.

Regards to all.

Click to expand...

Statistics change the impact of everything.

As more and more are tested that number is about to skyrocket. Employing the new Abbott Labs device and other similar devices, we are going to be testing 100,000 daily before the end of the week and soon many more than that.

This will serve to drive down the reported rate of mortality vs infections, but will really not have a real world effect on anything.

China's numbers are obviously corrupted by something and that "something" is likely the Chinese Communist Party. Reported deaths from the virus in Wuhan are just above 2,500.

However: To bury the 2,500+ dead, 42,000 Funerary urns are going to be required in Wuhan. What's wrong with this picture?

Wuhan residents dispute officials''' COVID-19 death toll - Business Insider
<snipo>
Wuhan's funeral homes were "handing out 3,500 urns every day."

RFA's reporting, which could not be independently verified by Insider, said at the current rate, about "42,000 urns would be given out" between March 23 and April 5, when a traditional grave-tending festival begins.
<snip>