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Dr. Birx predicts up to 200,000 coronavirus deaths 'if we do things almost perfectly'

cabse5 said:
Scientists didn't do things perfectly. They didn't quarantine those most at risk to coronavirus from everybody else at the start.

About 200,000 will die from scientists' blunders of social distancing? What a shame. Somebody should pay (other than China).
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Scientists cannot quarantine anyone. Also everyone is at risk from Covid 19. Over half of the hospitalizations are people under 65
 
chuckiechan said:
Because compared to today they were in the dark ages, medically. Plus WW1 troop movements, especially troop ships, spread it far and wide with little in the way of quarantine. Plus, the poor were crammed together in multi generation tenements.

We are much better off.

And to whomever asked, if I’m wrong I will admit it.
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Everyone wishes you were right but the odds are not with you. Also what good is modern medicine if too many people crowd our ICU's? 100,000 dead mean a million or more infected.
 
iguanaman said:
Everyone wishes you were right but the odds are not with you. Also what good is modern medicine if too many people crowd our ICU's? 100,000 dead mean a million or more infected.
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Does anyone agree that the picture will be different in two weeks? I believe so. And therefore so will the data that the statisticians use. And as updated data is used the predicted outcome will change, and therefor today’s opinions will have to change to match the new statistics.
 
chuckiechan said:
Does anyone agree that the picture will be different in two weeks? I believe so. And therefore so will the data that the statisticians use. And as updated data is used the predicted outcome will change, and therefor today’s opinions will have to change to match the new statistics.
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Yes it will either be worse or hopefully better. I don't think you can out guess them though. They have a lot of experience doing these calculations.
 
swing_voter said:
Damn man, she says 200K is the best case scenario. lol
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Seems to be managing expectations to me.

Well if you say 200,000 in a perfect scenario, then if it only goes to 100,000 then they claim a miracle, or 250,000 and it wasn't so bad...

It only really looks bad if it's way higher than that.
 
chuckiechan said:
Does anyone agree that the picture will be different in two weeks? I believe so. And therefore so will the data that the statisticians use. And as updated data is used the predicted outcome will change, and therefor today’s opinions will have to change to match the new statistics.
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Yes, of course it will be different or in two weeks we'll be approaching 100k dead, and we will be a long, long way from over this virus, which will be with us (absent a cure or miracle speed on an effective vaccine) for a year or more from today - well into 2021.

If the projection is 100k dead for the duration of this thing, that estimate assumes that social distancing and all the rest has a BIG positive (i.e. beneficial) impact on the rate of spread, which will start to show up in the death toll about 10-14 days from when we see infections slow considerably.
 
Ikari said:
Well it's going to get worse before it gets better, I think. But I'm hoping the 200,000 number is way off. It may be hard to predict everything at this stage. We have kept the fatalities relatively low, compared to other places. I think we're sitting at about 1.8% mortality, which has crept up a little. But it's a far cry from Italy's 11%.

Trump extended the Covid protocols through April, I think it's starting to sink into him that this is serious. Though I do hope that if we are serious about the social distancing and such, we'll keep these numbers down.
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What scary is that the US had 504 deaths on Sunday, and over 600 on Monday. .. that's 'getting worse before it gets better'. I think the lockdown will start having an effect in NYC in the deaths about april 7th to the 15th..

I hope there is a significant drop off
 
Ikari said:
Well it's going to get worse before it gets better, I think. But I'm hoping the 200,000 number is way off. It may be hard to predict everything at this stage. We have kept the fatalities relatively low, compared to other places. I think we're sitting at about 1.8% mortality, which has crept up a little. But it's a far cry from Italy's 11%.

Trump extended the Covid protocols through April, I think it's starting to sink into him that this is serious. Though I do hope that if we are serious about the social distancing and such, we'll keep these numbers down.
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The US is still early in the time frame for mass infections. I believe death rates increase quite a bit after the first week of being infected. So deaths for the next two weeks should increase quite a bit. Infections will also increase in that time frame but if social distancing works ( ie people do it) infection rates could slow down after 2 weeks
 
JasperL said:
Yes, of course it will be different or in two weeks we'll be approaching 100k dead, and we will be a long, long way from over this virus, which will be with us (absent a cure or miracle speed on an effective vaccine) for a year or more from today - well into 2021.

If the projection is 100k dead for the duration of this thing, that estimate assumes that social distancing and all the rest has a BIG positive (i.e. beneficial) impact on the rate of spread, which will start to show up in the death toll about 10-14 days from when we see infections slow considerably.
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I was just re-reading some stuff on the Spanish Flu and the first round in the US it was mostly just a 3-4 day ugly cold. Then it returned. I knew it made a few rounds and changed but really...a 3-4 day ugly cold is exactly what I had the last week in Jan...1.5 weeks after having the flu. And I almost never get sick. But cv showed up 20 minutes away about a week later....1st case in the US.

They also said it was possible it came from China (birthplace of most influenzas) because thousands of Chinese had been imported to Europe to dig trenches.
 
Lord Tammerlain said:
The US is still early in the time frame for mass infections. I believe death rates increase quite a bit after the first week of being infected. So deaths for the next two weeks should increase quite a bit. Infections will also increase in that time frame but if social distancing works ( ie people do it) infection rates could slow down after 2 weeks
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Very early indeed...huge stretches of virgin population barely touched (it seems) so far. It will spread everywhere. The final impacts of those infections remains to be seen.
 
Lursa said:
Very early indeed...huge stretches of virgin population barely touched (it seems) so far. It will spread everywhere. The final impacts of those infections remains to be seen.
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It really depends on how well social distancing works.

People are goingto have to start wearing masks and not rule gloves when going in public or people will start dieing due to lack of money and food
 
Lord Tammerlain said:
It really depends on how well social distancing works.

People are goingto have to start wearing masks and not rule gloves when going in public or people will start dieing due to lack of money and food
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It will still reach everywhere in the US...it is remarkably communicable. But again, it all depends on the circumstances how the infections end up affecting those areas. More spread out, more treatment options by then, more medical resources available, etc.
 
chuckiechan said:
... let us put a pin in this statement, and see how close she is when this ends. And if she is off by 75% in one calendar year, she should be fired, shamed, ... and be kicked to the curb to be a talking head on MSNBC and she can explain her disappointment to Trump haters that she was wrong.
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Does that apply to Trump as well since he's been promoting these figures as well?
 
Drawdown said:
If she is off by 75% they can just claim social distancing worked.
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Social distancing hasn't protected those most at risk to coronavirus and everyone else will either be sick or a carrier of coronavirus.
Social distancing of any kind doesn't do anything other than screw up our lives and prolong the pandemic.

No one has encountered anything like coronavirus and China kept it a secret to the world's demise so there aren't any experts in this case.
And the scientists in charge aren't using common sense. Not with this social distancing crappola.
 
chuckiechan said:
Well, I just parked a bookmark in my calendar.
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Social distancing would've worked if everyone was highly susceptible to coronavirus. Since everyone isn't highly susceptible to coronavirus, social distancing will probably kill more people than a straightforward quarantine.

A quarantine would've protected those most at risk to coronavirus. Social distancing of any kind, even if it's shutter-in-place social distancing, wouldn't.
 
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Torus34 said:
As the White House coronovirus response coordinator, Dr. Birx speaks for ... wait for it ... President of the United States of America Donald Trump.

Regards, stay well, and be thankful you're not one of the '15'.
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What does Trump have to do with this scientific incompetence, IMO? Trump has no scientific expertise, whatsoever, and the scientists, well, they don't have any expertise (because coronavirus is new and the rollout by China was different) nor common sense.
 
RAMOSS said:
And, if the deaths are over 100,000 in the usa this year because of this?? What will you say then?
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I will say it's because of the incompetence of using social distancing to ward off coronavirus deaths.
 
iguanaman said:
Scientists cannot quarantine anyone. Also everyone is at risk from Covid 19. Over half of the hospitalizations are people under 65
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You think age is the only factor for deteriorating heath due to coronavirus?:lamo Besides age, other factors are: because of respiratory conditions of any age and also because of immune deficiencies of any age.
 
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chuckiechan said:
Does anyone agree that the picture will be different in two weeks? I believe so. And therefore so will the data that the statisticians use. And as updated data is used the predicted outcome will change, and therefor today’s opinions will have to change to match the new statistics.
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I'm afraid social distancing of any kind slows down the virus but also prolongs it. Meaning the stats will be onerous longer, we'll be squatted in our homes longer and we'll be without jobs longer...But the amount of deaths will probably be the same (unless there's a vaccine). The number of deaths will just take longer due to social distancing.:roll:
 
iguanaman said:
Yes it will either be worse or hopefully better. I don't think you can out guess them though. They have a lot of experience doing these calculations.
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Scientists have absolutely zero experience with this type of pandemic and zero experience with the type of rollout from China. Scientists are treating this pandemic like it was the mother of all pandemics. Like everyone will become gravely ill from the virus because everyone is being isolated via the shutter-in-place social distancing.
 
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cabse5 said:
I will say it's because of the incompetence of using social distancing to ward off coronavirus deaths.
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So, if it's under 100,000, you will say 'oh, it's an over reaction', and if it's over 100,00 'it's the incompetence of using social distancing'. ? That's not what the modeling is saying. The modeling is saying if we DON'T use social distancing, it could be up to a million.

It looks like you are trying to have it both ways to me.l
 
RAMOSS said:
So, if it's under 100,000, you will say 'oh, it's an over reaction', and if it's over 100,00 'it's the incompetence of using social distancing'. ? That's not what the modeling is saying. The modeling is saying if we DON'T use social distancing, it could be up to a million.

It looks like you are trying to have it both ways to me.l
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I'm saying it will be because of social distancing that the number of deaths will RISE to as much as 100,000. Social distancing in all forms, even the most stringent current one, shuttering-in-place, will produce more deaths than a quarantine because no one is protected from exposure to coronavirus while using social distancing of any kind.

EDIT: Also, social distancing will slow down the virus but will also prolong it meaning more deaths will be created from social distancing from sheer length of time.
 
cabse5 said:
I'm saying it will be because of social distancing that the number of deaths will RISE to as much as 100,000. Social distancing in all forms, even the most stringent current one, shuttering-in-place, will produce more deaths than a quarantine because no one is protected from exposure to coronavirus while using social distancing of any kind.

EDIT: Also, social distancing will slow down the virus but will also prolong it meaning more deaths will be created from social distancing from sheer length of time.
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There is no basis for your claim you know. In fact, all evidence shows that the facts are exactly opposite.
 
RAMOSS said:
There is no basis for your claim you know. In fact, all evidence shows that the facts are exactly opposite.
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Which facts? Coronavirus is new. The way China didn't report Coronavirus to anyone else is new.

One has to use common sense when there are no facts to use. Will social distancing protect anyone form coronavirus exposure? No. Social distancing slows down the virus but also prolongs its existence. Will quarantine protect anyone from coronavirus exposure? Yes. If done properly, a quarantine will remove those most at risk to coronavirus from everybody else...and a quarantine will shorten the violent life of the contagion. With a proper quarantine, those outside the quarantine may contract the contagion where they may become ill and/or need to go the hospital but they will have less of a chance of dying.
 
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