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Dr. Birx predicts up to 200,000 coronavirus deaths 'if we do things almost perfectly'

chuckiechan

chuckiechan

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Dr. Birx predicts up to 200,000 coronavirus deaths 'if we do things almost perfectly' - AOL News

The White House coronavirus response coordinator said Monday that she is "very worried about every city in the United States" and projects 100,000 to 200,000 American deaths as a best case scenario.

In an interview on "TODAY," Dr. Deborah Birx painted a grim message about the expected fatalities, echoing that without doing any measures they could hit as high as 2.2 million, as coronavirus cases continue to climb throughout the U.S.
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IMO, they are using scare tactics to try to get people to self quarantine, keep social distance, and do with the medical people are saying. That is criminal.

So let us put a pin in this statement, and see how close she is when this ends. And if she is off by 75% in one calendar year, she should be fired, shamed, and have her medical license revoked and be kicked to the curb to be a talking head on MSNBC and she can explain her disappointment to Trump haters that she was wrong.

I refuse to accept that it is the government's job to instill a sense of panic based on straight line statistics that are devoid of the impact of future events.
 
chuckiechan said:
Dr. Birx predicts up to 200,000 coronavirus deaths 'if we do things almost perfectly' - AOL News



IMO, they are using scare tactics to try to get people to self quarantine, keep social distance, and do with the medical people are saying. That is criminal.

So let us put a pin in this statement, and see how close she is when this ends. And if she is off by 75% in one calendar year, she should be fired, shamed, and have her medical license revoked and be kicked to the curb to be a talking head on MSNBC and she can explain her disappointment to Trump haters that she was wrong.

I refuse to accept that it is the government's job to instill a sense of panic based on straight line statistics that are devoid of the impact of future events.
Click to expand...

Scientists didn't do things perfectly. They didn't quarantine those most at risk to coronavirus from everybody else at the start.

About 200,000 will die from scientists' blunders of social distancing? What a shame. Somebody should pay (other than China).
 
I took it the opposite way. That they are downplaying it to prevent panic..and having to increase the bad news incrementally in the hopes they can acclimate us to the stark reality, like a frog in hot water.

I hope it’s not that..but you know, the reports from hospitals and the world on lockdown....this isn’t the flu is it.
 
cabse5 said:
Scientists didn't do things perfectly. They didn't quarantine those most at risk to coronavirus from everybody else at the start.

About 200,000 will die from scientists' blunders of social distancing? What a shame. Somebody should pay (other than China).
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Its like saying since only you posted to only me, you have a 100% post rate to my posts.
 
chuckiechan said:
Dr. Birx predicts up to 200,000 coronavirus deaths 'if we do things almost perfectly' - AOL News



IMO, they are using scare tactics to try to get people to self quarantine, keep social distance, and do with the medical people are saying. That is criminal.

So let us put a pin in this statement, and see how close she is when this ends. And if she is off by 75% in one calendar year, she should be fired, shamed, and have her medical license revoked and be kicked to the curb to be a talking head on MSNBC and she can explain her disappointment to Trump haters that she was wrong.

I refuse to accept that it is the government's job to instill a sense of panic based on straight line statistics that are devoid of the impact of future events.
Click to expand...

If she is off by 75% they can just claim social distancing worked.
 
That's like half the people we lost in WWII.
 
chuckiechan said:
Dr. Birx predicts up to 200,000 coronavirus deaths 'if we do things almost perfectly' - AOL News



IMO, they are using scare tactics to try to get people to self quarantine, keep social distance, and do with the medical people are saying. That is criminal.

So let us put a pin in this statement, and see how close she is when this ends. And if she is off by 75% in one calendar year, she should be fired, shamed, and have her medical license revoked and be kicked to the curb to be a talking head on MSNBC and she can explain her disappointment to Trump haters that she was wrong.

I refuse to accept that it is the government's job to instill a sense of panic based on straight line statistics that are devoid of the impact of future events.
Click to expand...

Those are NOT 'straight line statistics.' If you assume no change from trends through yesterday, we'd hit 10,000 deaths by April 4 or 5th, then 100 thousand deaths somewhere within a few days of April 15th. So those projections assume social distancing works, and does an effective job of not just flattening the curve but lowering deaths, and not just through May or June or so, but through next year at this time, March 2021, or whenever we discover a cure and/or an effective vaccine.

Here's the latest log scale of deaths at Worldometer.com. That little flattening of the curve we see from yesterday is what has to happen and be sustained to keep those numbers from hitting 10k by next week, then a that lower estimate of 100,000 by tax day. So let's hope it's not a statistical blip and we did see a real drop in daily deaths.

Screen Shot 2020-03-30 at 11.36.12 AM.jpg
 
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chuckiechan said:
Dr. Birx predicts up to 200,000 coronavirus deaths 'if we do things almost perfectly' - AOL News



IMO, they are using scare tactics to try to get people to self quarantine, keep social distance, and do with the medical people are saying. That is criminal.

So let us put a pin in this statement, and see how close she is when this ends. And if she is off by 75% in one calendar year, she should be fired, shamed, and have her medical license revoked and be kicked to the curb to be a talking head on MSNBC and she can explain her disappointment to Trump haters that she was wrong.

I refuse to accept that it is the government's job to instill a sense of panic based on straight line statistics that are devoid of the impact of future events.
Click to expand...

America lost 200,000 in one month during the Spanish flu. What makes this estimate so hard to believe? It's actually generous in my opinion.

And what exactly is wrong with scaring people into making the right decisions, for their own health and safety? People should know the risks.
 
Damn man, she says 200K is the best case scenario. lol
 
Well it's going to get worse before it gets better, I think. But I'm hoping the 200,000 number is way off. It may be hard to predict everything at this stage. We have kept the fatalities relatively low, compared to other places. I think we're sitting at about 1.8% mortality, which has crept up a little. But it's a far cry from Italy's 11%.

Trump extended the Covid protocols through April, I think it's starting to sink into him that this is serious. Though I do hope that if we are serious about the social distancing and such, we'll keep these numbers down.
 
Irredentist said:
America lost 200,000 in one month during the Spanish flu. What makes this estimate so hard to believe? It's actually generous in my opinion.

And what exactly is wrong with scaring people into making the right decisions, for their own health and safety? People should know the risks.
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FL- was late to closures- Mar 17 -



Florida total cases -5,473 new cases +523 updated daily
Click on US and you can sort by State -last column on right under dashboard can provide county by county is some cases

Site has a wealth of detailed information by State
Coronavirus Update (Live): 746,066 Cases and 35,347 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
 
chuckiechan said:
Dr. Birx predicts up to 200,000 coronavirus deaths 'if we do things almost perfectly' - AOL News



IMO, they are using scare tactics to try to get people to self quarantine, keep social distance, and do with the medical people are saying. That is criminal.

So let us put a pin in this statement, and see how close she is when this ends. And if she is off by 75% in one calendar year, she should be fired, shamed, and have her medical license revoked and be kicked to the curb to be a talking head on MSNBC and she can explain her disappointment to Trump haters that she was wrong.

I refuse to accept that it is the government's job to instill a sense of panic based on straight line statistics that are devoid of the impact of future events.
Click to expand...

That’s pretty ridiculous. Right now everyone is working off of models and estimates without complete information on a new virus, and at the same time being pressed to provide some guess on how many deaths. Even Fauci’s guess of 100k to 200k carries his caveat to not hold him to it.
 
Moon said:
That’s pretty ridiculous. Right now everyone is working off of models and estimates without complete information on a new virus, and at the same time being pressed to provide some guess on how many deaths. Even Fauci’s guess of 100k to 200k carries his caveat to not hold him to it.
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But the headlines don’t say “... but don’t hold me to it.”
 
chuckiechan said:
Dr. Birx predicts up to 200,000 coronavirus deaths 'if we do things almost perfectly' - AOL News



IMO, they are using scare tactics to try to get people to self quarantine, keep social distance, and do with the medical people are saying. That is criminal.

So let us put a pin in this statement, and see how close she is when this ends. And if she is off by 75% in one calendar year, she should be fired, shamed, and have her medical license revoked and be kicked to the curb to be a talking head on MSNBC and she can explain her disappointment to Trump haters that she was wrong.

I refuse to accept that it is the government's job to instill a sense of panic based on straight line statistics that are devoid of the impact of future events.
Click to expand...

Do the napkin math.

With an R-naught number of 2, modeling suggests that at least 50% of Americans will contract COVID-19 = 165 million.

Out of that 165 million, experience says that ~17% will require hospitalization = 28 million.

Employing a very conservative 1% mortality rate, American deaths = 280,000

And that is a best case scenario. As Dr. Birx cautioned, "if we do things almost perfectly" which we are not.

US mortality estimates range from a rock bottom low of 165,000 to 2 million.
 
chuckiechan said:
Well, I just parked a bookmark in my calendar.
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Just posting to get notified when you bump this in the future.
FWIW...
I am doing in another thread that experts concluded that we would have over 1 million fatalitiesand by march 23rd (already past) multiple major cities healthcare systems would be overwhelmed beyong capacity. Something they were wrong about

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 
chuckiechan said:
Dr. Birx predicts up to 200,000 coronavirus deaths 'if we do things almost perfectly' - AOL News



IMO, they are using scare tactics to try to get people to self quarantine, keep social distance, and do with the medical people are saying. That is criminal.

So let us put a pin in this statement, and see how close she is when this ends. And if she is off by 75% in one calendar year, she should be fired, shamed, and have her medical license revoked and be kicked to the curb to be a talking head on MSNBC and she can explain her disappointment to Trump haters that she was wrong.

I refuse to accept that it is the government's job to instill a sense of panic based on straight line statistics that are devoid of the impact of future events.
Click to expand...

As the White House coronovirus response coordinator, Dr. Birx speaks for ... wait for it ... President of the United States of America Donald Trump.

Regards, stay well, and be thankful you're not one of the '15'.
 
chuckiechan said:
Dr. Birx predicts up to 200,000 coronavirus deaths 'if we do things almost perfectly' - AOL News



IMO, they are using scare tactics to try to get people to self quarantine, keep social distance, and do with the medical people are saying. That is criminal.

So let us put a pin in this statement, and see how close she is when this ends. And if she is off by 75% in one calendar year, she should be fired, shamed, and have her medical license revoked and be kicked to the curb to be a talking head on MSNBC and she can explain her disappointment to Trump haters that she was wrong.

I refuse to accept that it is the government's job to instill a sense of panic based on straight line statistics that are devoid of the impact of future events.
Click to expand...

And, if the deaths are over 100,000 in the usa this year because of this?? What will you say then?
 
Irredentist said:
America lost 200,000 in one month during the Spanish flu. What makes this estimate so hard to believe? It's actually generous in my opinion.

And what exactly is wrong with scaring people into making the right decisions, for their own health and safety? People should know the risks.
Click to expand...

I don't think the OP is going to age well.
 
Irredentist said:
America lost 200,000 in one month during the Spanish flu. What makes this estimate so hard to believe? It's actually generous in my opinion.

And what exactly is wrong with scaring people into making the right decisions, for their own health and safety? People should know the risks.
Click to expand...

Because compared to today they were in the dark ages, medically. Plus WW1 troop movements, especially troop ships, spread it far and wide with little in the way of quarantine. Plus, the poor were crammed together in multi generation tenements.

We are much better off.

And to whomever asked, if I’m wrong I will admit it.
 
chuckiechan said:
Dr. Birx predicts up to 200,000 coronavirus deaths 'if we do things almost perfectly' - AOL News



IMO, they are using scare tactics to try to get people to self quarantine, keep social distance, and do with the medical people are saying. That is criminal.

So let us put a pin in this statement, and see how close she is when this ends. And if she is off by 75% in one calendar year, she should be fired, shamed, and have her medical license revoked and be kicked to the curb to be a talking head on MSNBC and she can explain her disappointment to Trump haters that she was wrong.

I refuse to accept that it is the government's job to instill a sense of panic based on straight line statistics that are devoid of the impact of future events.
Click to expand...

Yes, but you do understand, I hope, that given your worshipful veneration of twump, there's absolutely no reason to do anything other than laugh at your opinion.

People who believe what you asserted are immune to reason.
 
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