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Recovery v. Mortality 03/30/20

Captain Adverse

Captain Adverse

Classical Liberal Sage
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Well it is 8:59 AM EST and a check of this site shows the following stats among confirmed cases in the USA:

United States Coronavirus (COVID-19) Tracker

Confirmed Case: 143,148.

Deaths: 2,578 that is up 17% (+383 in the last 24 hours.)

Recoveries: 4,865 that is up 344% (+3770 in the last 24 hours.)

That is a 1.8% mortality rate among confirmed cases so far.

The good news at this point is a 3.4% recovery rate among confirmed cases so far.

I still think the mortality rate is not reflective of a valid rate. IMO there are a significantly larger number of people who either have it but are feeling minor to moderate effects, or people who have had it and have already recovered.

Time will tell just how bad things really were, and hopefully we can learn from it.
 
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Captain Adverse said:
Well it is 8:59 AM EST and a check of this site shows the following stats among confirmed cases in the USA:

United States Coronavirus (COVID-19) Tracker

Confirmed Case: 143,148.

Deaths: 2,578 that is up 17% (+383 in the last 24 hours.)

Recoveries: 4,865 that is up 344% (+3770 in the last 24 hours.)

That is a 1.8% mortality rate among confirmed cases so far.

The good news at this point is a 3.4% recovery rate among confirmed cases so far.

I still think the mortality rate is not reflective of a valid rate. IMO there are a significantly larger number of people who either have it but are feeling minor to moderate effects, or people who have had it and have already recovered.

Time will tell just how bad things really were, and hopefully we can learn from it.
Click to expand...



Just to point out that a 3.4% recovery rate would mean 96.6% don't recover. I don't believe you quite meant it that way as the recovery rate is an improving rate, which is, as you say, good news.
 
Captain Adverse said:
Well it is 8:59 AM EST and a check of this site shows the following stats among confirmed cases in the USA:

United States Coronavirus (COVID-19) Tracker

Confirmed Case: 143,148.

Deaths: 2,578 that is up 17% (+383 in the last 24 hours.)

Recoveries: 4,865 that is up 344% (+3770 in the last 24 hours.)

That is a 1.8% mortality rate among confirmed cases so far.

The good news at this point is a 3.4% recovery rate among confirmed cases so far.

I still think the mortality rate is not reflective of a valid rate. IMO there are a significantly larger number of people who either have it but are feeling minor to moderate effects, or people who have had it and have already recovered.

Time will tell just how bad things really were, and hopefully we can learn from it.
Click to expand...

I see the confirmed case number going up, but wonder if they should add the tests administered number as well.
In my area, it would take a lot of effort to actually get tested, and the results could take up to two weeks.
I think abbot labs, is bringing out their 15 min test, when that happens, we should expect the confirmed cases to spike,
not because of new cases, just quicker test turnaround.
 
bluesmoke said:
Just to point out that a 3.4% recovery rate would mean 96.6% don't recover. I don't believe you quite meant it that way as the recovery rate is an improving rate, which is, as you say, good news.
Click to expand...

That percentage will go up as time progresses. The big issue is not the percentage that recover over time, but total numbers that actually get infected, and the percentage of those that die. Let's suppose the death rate is .5% , and you get 150 million people infected. That still is 750,000 people who die. That's the number we have to worry about and address.. The current models suggest between 100K and 200K dead in the USA. Those are the numbers that actions have to be taken to drive down.
 
Captain Adverse said:
Well it is 8:59 AM EST and a check of this site shows the following stats among confirmed cases in the USA:

United States Coronavirus (COVID-19) Tracker

Confirmed Case: 143,148.

Deaths: 2,578 that is up 17% (+383 in the last 24 hours.)

Recoveries: 4,865 that is up 344% (+3770 in the last 24 hours.)

That is a 1.8% mortality rate among confirmed cases so far.

The good news at this point is a 3.4% recovery rate among confirmed cases so far.

I still think the mortality rate is not reflective of a valid rate. IMO there are a significantly larger number of people who either have it but are feeling minor to moderate effects, or people who have had it and have already recovered.

Time will tell just how bad things really were, and hopefully we can learn from it.
Click to expand...

Those statistics do no include my friend who is hopefully getting over his infection. He was not tested, did not seek medical help, and stayed at home. Yesterday being Day 5 for him, he reported feeling better.

I suspect more are in his category, unreported and untested.

Early on the Chinese reported 2 sub-categories of the virus. One was more commonly fatal, the other was more commonly relatively minor.
 
Thoreau72 said:
Early on the Chinese reported 2 sub-categories of the virus. One was more commonly fatal, the other was more commonly relatively minor.
Click to expand...

Same virus, it just affects some more lethally.
 
Mach said:
Same virus, it just affects some more lethally.
Click to expand...

Certainly different individuals respond differently to all sorts of stimuli.

Sorry I don't have a link, but several weeks ago I read an article describing that the Chinese had found 2 variants, or whatever the proper term might be, they designated "L" and "S" I believe, and in their experience one more often caused death, as the other was more often not fatal.

It might easily be said from what we've seen in these last few months that the Chinese took it more seriously than the US did.

What is passed off by our media as information is more accurately described as fear-mongering.
 
Thoreau72 said:
Certainly different individuals respond differently to all sorts of stimuli.
Sorry I don't have a link, but several weeks ago I read an article describing that the Chinese had found 2 variants, or whatever the proper term might be, they designated "L" and "S" I believe, and in their experience one more often caused death, as the other was more often not fatal.
It might easily be said from what we've seen in these last few months that the Chinese took it more seriously than the US did.
What is passed off by our media as information is more accurately described as fear-mongering.
Click to expand...

What U.S. doctors have discussed these two variants...do you have some credible source? Or you heard it from China was enough for you to go CT on this?
 
Mach said:
What U.S. doctors have discussed these two variants...do you have some credible source? Or you heard it from China was enough for you to go CT on this?
Click to expand...

I read a lot. So I'm sorry I cannot pinpoint the article I referred to. It was probably one of the many articles written by Larry Romanoff and others on numerous alternative media.

I read some of the mainstream media too, but those are just like they have been for 20 years or more, mostly propaganda, mostly ideas like WMD and such that they want you to think.

US doctors are currently up to their collective ass in alligators as you know.

Most often the alternative media provides stories suppressed or ignored by MSM.

Whether you understand it or not, believe it or not, doesn't matter. :peace
 
Captain Adverse said:
Well it is 8:59 AM EST and a check of this site shows the following stats among confirmed cases in the USA:

United States Coronavirus (COVID-19) Tracker

Confirmed Case: 143,148.

Deaths: 2,578 that is up 17% (+383 in the last 24 hours.)

Recoveries: 4,865 that is up 344% (+3770 in the last 24 hours.)

That is a 1.8% mortality rate among confirmed cases so far.

The good news at this point is a 3.4% recovery rate among confirmed cases so far.

I still think the mortality rate is not reflective of a valid rate. IMO there are a significantly larger number of people who either have it but are feeling minor to moderate effects, or people who have had it and have already recovered.

Time will tell just how bad things really were, and hopefully we can learn from it.
Click to expand...

Widespread testing could tell us the same things in far less time - hopefully, someone will do that instead of "We'll just have to wait and see what happens".
 
Captain Adverse said:
Well it is 8:59 AM EST and a check of this site shows the following stats among confirmed cases in the USA:

United States Coronavirus (COVID-19) Tracker

Confirmed Case: 143,148.

Deaths: 2,578 that is up 17% (+383 in the last 24 hours.)

Recoveries: 4,865 that is up 344% (+3770 in the last 24 hours.)

That is a 1.8% mortality rate among confirmed cases so far.

The good news at this point is a 3.4% recovery rate among confirmed cases so far.

I still think the mortality rate is not reflective of a valid rate. IMO there are a significantly larger number of people who either have it but are feeling minor to moderate effects, or people who have had it and have already recovered.

Time will tell just how bad things really were, and hopefully we can learn from it.
Click to expand...

We had 10,000 cases two weeks ago. Shouldnt we be having thousands of recoveries every day, by now? Maybe they could report on outcomes so far. Only a few % are even hospitalized. What about the 90% that arent? Whats happened to the tens of thousands confirmed infected that arent in the hospital?
 
ttwtt78640 said:
How, exactly, do you know that?
Click to expand...

I too had read/heard somewhere that the virus had mutated after leaving China and starting its world travels - couldn't offer a source, however. So it's likely there are at least two "strengths" of the same virus out there, similar to most seasonal viruses.
 
CanadaJohn said:
I too had read/heard somewhere that the virus had mutated after leaving China and starting its world travels - couldn't offer a source, however. So it's likely there are at least two "strengths" of the same virus out there, similar to most seasonal viruses.
Click to expand...

It would also explain why some who had recovered (from one strain?) can catch it (from another strain?) after they had allegedly developed immunity. Knowing whether there are, in fact, two (or more?) strains of this novel coronavirus would seem to be very important.
 
ttwtt78640 said:
What, exactly, does "behave similarly" mean? We know that different strains of "the" flu virus behave similarly, yet a flu vaccination effective against one strain may or may not be effective against another.
Click to expand...

Based on that article, lethality is the same. It appears as though the differences in strains is relatively minimal so far. Hopefully this doesn’t eventually derail vaccination.
 
Captain Adverse said:
Well it is 8:59 AM EST and a check of this site shows the following stats among confirmed cases in the USA:

United States Coronavirus (COVID-19) Tracker

Confirmed Case: 143,148.

Deaths: 2,578 that is up 17% (+383 in the last 24 hours.)

Recoveries: 4,865 that is up 344% (+3770 in the last 24 hours.)

That is a 1.8% mortality rate among confirmed cases so far.

The good news at this point is a 3.4% recovery rate among confirmed cases so far.

I still think the mortality rate is not reflective of a valid rate. IMO there are a significantly larger number of people who either have it but are feeling minor to moderate effects, or people who have had it and have already recovered.

Time will tell just how bad things really were, and hopefully we can learn from it.
Click to expand...

I agree with you. The numbers are not accurate because we don't test everyone in the country and that's not realistic at this point. I like to compare to influenza. Numbers for influenza are massive, tens of millions of cases just in the USA and around 50,000 death in the US average. World wide the World Health Organization estimates that worldwide, annual influenza epidemics result in about 3-5 million cases of severe illness and about 250,000 to 500,000 deaths. Accurate numbers world wide are not maintained for total cases as many go unreported.
 
i hate to oversimplify this whole thing but all numbers are gonna go up (not necessarily %s) because we're just starting to test a lot of people.
 
RAMOSS said:
That percentage will go up as time progresses. The big issue is not the percentage that recover over time, but total numbers that actually get infected, and the percentage of those that die. Let's suppose the death rate is .5% , and you get 150 million people infected. That still is 750,000 people who die. That's the number we have to worry about and address.. The current models suggest between 100K and 200K dead in the USA. Those are the numbers that actions have to be taken to drive down.
Click to expand...

150 million infected.

That's 1,000 times of what we have now. 1,000

To get to 150 million infected you would need 1 million new cases every day for 150 days or 5 months.

Cut this in half for 75 million infected.

Think about rather those numbers could possibly be true.
 
roberthughey said:
150 million infected.

That's 1,000 times of what we have now. 1,000

To get to 150 million infected you would need 1 million new cases every day for 150 days or 5 months.

Cut this in half for 75 million infected.

Think about rather those numbers could possibly be true.
Click to expand...

And, if we don't keep the 'social distancing' in place, that is likely the number of people that would get it.
 
RAMOSS said:
That percentage will go up as time progresses. The big issue is not the percentage that recover over time, but total numbers that actually get infected, and the percentage of those that die. Let's suppose the death rate is .5% , and you get 150 million people infected. That still is 750,000 people who die. That's the number we have to worry about and address.. The current models suggest between 100K and 200K dead in the USA. Those are the numbers that actions have to be taken to drive down.
Click to expand...



That's why I never paid much attention to those who, when we once had a low death rate, pointed out how low our death rate was in the US. Both too early to tell and the fact that it's the number that die if we can't contain the number infected, regardless of the death rate, like you say. Of course, larger numbers of infected combined with high death rates is the worst scenario. Yes, a lower ratio is always better than higher, but doesn't and shouldn't allay genuine concern.
 
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