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UPDATE: Curve Continues To Flatten - Just As Mashmont Predicted.

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Mashmont said:
Yes it is, but you can't tell that by your graph. Let's say I compressed the dates into 2 inches. The graph would appear very steep. But if I spread it out, you could see the flattening.
Click to expand...

Factually incorrect. Stretching or shrinking the horizontal axis does not flip the sign of the concavity of the graph. This is basic calculus.

It's why mathematicians say you have to look at data, not drawings.
Click to expand...

You're looking for concavity, not slope. Do you even know what concavity of a graph is? :lol:
 
SMTA said:
The goal post here being being not flattened, right!?
Yea, it’s moving vertically every day.
Do you require education as to that meaning??
Click to expand...
No, you missed it, totally.

First he said:

Mashmont said:
Only 130,000 COVID cases, max. This wouldn't make a garden variety flu season. Can you say hoax?
Click to expand...

A couple of days later, he changes his tune:

Mashmont said:
Really the number of supposedly sick means nothing. What matters is the number dead,
Click to expand...

Understand now?
 
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Mashmont said:
We know the numbers are increasing, but the rate of increase is decreasing. Showing it in the 'standard' way wouldn't demonstrate that.
Click to expand...

How does your chart show the rate of increase better than using simple % instead of your contrived method of showing %. And why would your chart show 0% increase as 100% increase?

The graph at #197 represents the flattening of the curve upward quite well for S Korea and China. It doesn't show flattening for the US because in spite of you weird large % increase new cases are not slowing down much at all.
 
Crovax said:
Having 80% of the US infected by easter weekend is not a good thing
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If 80% of the US was infected it would mean the virus has burnt out because long before that point so many people will have been infected and recovered so the virus can’t spread to new hosts without immunity.

That would be a tremendously good thing
 
EMNofSeattle said:
If 80% of the US was infected it would mean the virus has burnt out because long before that point so many people will have been infected and recovered so the virus can’t spread to new hosts without immunity.

That would be a tremendously good thing
Click to expand...

People over 65 with health issues might not agree.
 
Visbek said:
lol

The rate of change is not decreasing yet, and you're not using anything resembling any sort of standard method.

Let's look at some real numbers, and a real rate of change:

View attachment 67276552


And let's see how badly you're botching your predictions:

View attachment 67276553
Click to expand...

Thanks, I knew there had to be a more accurate and sensible way to present what most graphs show.
 
The chart I just saw on TV showed the Chinese cases levelling off and the US line almost straight up to over 100,000!
 
jpn said:
When Mashmont lies on his side it appears to flatten, yes. :mrgreen:

Have you seen this? It's an interactive model just published by the University of Washington. You can follow along day-by-day, and also by state.
Click to expand...

They predict 81,000 total deaths in the US.

I would breathe a huge sigh of relief if the final numbers were anywhere near that low. Hell I'll be surprised if we don't crack a quarter of a million. :(
 
Gimmesometruth said:
No, you missed it, totally.

First he said:



A couple of days later, he changes his tune:



Understand now?
Click to expand...
Sorry. I thought that you were referring to me.
No harm, no foul.
 
Mashmont said:
Guys, recall a couple of days ago, the president ignited the stock market by proclaiming America would be open for business Easter week. Looks like the great man's optimism worked. DJIA has risen 3000 points in three days!! Now the libs have to give him credit for this giant boost since they did the same for 0bummer in 2009 when the market went up after he tanked it.

The president's optimism is borne out by the current trend which, for eight days running, saw the 3-day rolling average increse DROP yet again. Mashmont is still sticking with the view the curve will be going downhill Easter week as the president proclaims. Recall, I was the only scientist saying this a few days ago. Now others have joined in. The differs sharply from the leftwing 'scientists' saying this current cycle could go through mid-to-late summer (absurd!)

I am now getting my past numbers from infection2020.com. Here are the numbers, and here are the predictions for the next three days in red: Let's see how we do.

Mar 16-19 4727 14332 312% increase
Mar 17-20 6507 19762 304% increase
Mar 18-21 9421 26881 285% increase
Mar 19-22 14332 35226 245% increase
Mar 20-23 19762 46455 218% increase
Mar 21-24 26881 55225 205% increase
Mar 22-25 35226 69222 196% increase
Mar 23-26 46455 86043 185% increase
Mar 24-27 55225 96643 175% increase
Mar 25-28 69222 114909 166% increase
Mar 26-29 86043 134227 156% increase
Click to expand...

lol

There are at least 100,013 cases of novel coronavirus in the United States, according to CNN Health’s tally of US cases that are detected and tested in the country through public health systems.

So far, 1,545 people have died in the United States from coronavirus.

Today, there have been at least 359 new deaths reported. That is the most deaths reported in the US in a single day.
Click to expand...

So we made it past 100K cases and suffered the most deaths in a single day to this point. That really sounds like it's "flattening".

This sort of dismissive, flippant, partisan nonsense is dangerous during a crisis where people need to keep their resolve and their sanity to push through safely. I will say that we haven't suffered as many deaths as some of Europe has. Italy has a 10% mortality rate, Spain just under 8%, the UK is sitting at about 5%. We've maintained about 1.5%, which is much higher than the flu, but better than some of these other countries. That is a good thing, and if we keep serious about this crisis I think we will likely see that percentage drop by the time all is said and done.

But we don't need reckless behavior trying to mitigate the dangers that this crisis poses. And most of this reckless behavior tends to be made in order to somehow praise Trump or deflect from his mishandling at the beginning of the crisis. There's no need for that. There's no need to panic, though we do need to practice social distancing and such. But we have to be honest, serious, and rational about this crisis. If we do, I think we'll see death rates much lower than H1N1.
 
Gimmesometruth said:
No, you missed it, totally.

First he said:



A couple of days later, he changes his tune:



Understand now?
Click to expand...

Aw, don't be sore at Mash just because Trump has handled this virus better than asleep-at-the-wheel 0bummer did H1N1.

Barack, take note of a master at work.
 
Ikari said:
lol



So we made it past 100K cases and suffered the most deaths in a single day to this point. That really sounds like it's "flattening".

This sort of dismissive, flippant, partisan nonsense is dangerous during a crisis where people need to keep their resolve and their sanity to push through safely. I will say that we haven't suffered as many deaths as some of Europe has. Italy has a 10% mortality rate, Spain just under 8%, the UK is sitting at about 5%. We've maintained about 1.5%, which is much higher than the flu, but better than some of these other countries. That is a good thing, and if we keep serious about this crisis I think we will likely see that percentage drop by the time all is said and done.

But we don't need reckless behavior trying to mitigate the dangers that this crisis poses. And most of this reckless behavior tends to be made in order to somehow praise Trump or deflect from his mishandling at the beginning of the crisis. There's no need for that. There's no need to panic, though we do need to practice social distancing and such. But we have to be honest, serious, and rational about this crisis. If we do, I think we'll see death rates much lower than H1N1.
Click to expand...

Yes, there are more cases, but also understand the rate of increase is slowing. But with today's bill, I don't think anyone any longer can say anything other than President Trump has done a near-perfect job. I myself wouldn't have spent that money, but there are political realities for the president.
 
Mashmont said:
Guys, recall a couple of days ago, the president ignited the stock market by proclaiming America would be open for business Easter week. Looks like the great man's optimism worked. DJIA has risen 3000 points in three days!! Now the libs have to give him credit for this giant boost since they did the same for 0bummer in 2009 when the market went up after he tanked it.

The president's optimism is borne out by the current trend which, for eight days running, saw the 3-day rolling average increse DROP yet again. Mashmont is still sticking with the view the curve will be going downhill Easter week as the president proclaims. Recall, I was the only scientist saying this a few days ago. Now others have joined in. The differs sharply from the leftwing 'scientists' saying this current cycle could go through mid-to-late summer (absurd!)

I am now getting my past numbers from infection2020.com. Here are the numbers, and here are the predictions for the next three days in red: Let's see how we do.

Mar 16-19 4727 14332 312% increase
Mar 17-20 6507 19762 304% increase
Mar 18-21 9421 26881 285% increase
Mar 19-22 14332 35226 245% increase
Mar 20-23 19762 46455 218% increase
Mar 21-24 26881 55225 205% increase
Mar 22-25 35226 69222 196% increase
Mar 23-26 46455 86043 185% increase
Mar 24-27 55225 96643 175% increase
Mar 25-28 69222 114909 166% increase
Mar 26-29 86043 134227 156% increase
Click to expand...

So...here we are at March 27th, and there are 100,013 confirmed cases. It isn't midnight yet, so there will probably be a few more. Using Mashmont math, the predicted 175% increase is really 181% (which, for the rest of us who use regular math, would be an 81% increase). My other criticisms not withstanding, the prediction missed the mark by 6 points. Curve unflattening? Could be. I guess we will see.
 
ashurbanipal said:
So...here we are at March 27th, and there are 100,013 confirmed cases. It isn't midnight yet, so there will probably be a few more. Using Mashmont math, the predicted 175% increase is really 181% (which, for the rest of us who use regular math, would be an 81% increase). My other criticisms not withstanding, the prediction missed the mark by 6 points. Curve unflattening? Could be. I guess we will see.
Click to expand...

In truth today's 10,000 was a short jump, but it was what the three-day chart dictated. Saturday and Sunday have bigger gaps. Let's see how we're doing Sunday night.
 
Mashmont said:
In truth today's 10,000 was a short jump, but it was what the three-day chart dictated. Saturday and Sunday have bigger gaps. Let's see how we're doing Sunday night.
Click to expand...

Sure--I would agree that a miss of six points on one range isn't enough to disprove anything. That said, this morning when I checked we were at just under 80,000, so we've jumped by over 20,000 confirmed cases today.
 
flogger said:
Total BS the greed and selfishness of Americans really staggers belief on this issue . Is the dollar really all that matters to you ? :doh
Click to expand...

The problem is that, here in America, thanks to generations of economic idiocy, without those dollars, people start to starve to death after a few weeks.
 
Mashmont said:
Aw, don't be sore at Mash just because Trump has handled this virus better than asleep-at-the-wheel 0bummer did H1N1.

Barack, take note of a master at work.
Click to expand...

Your analysis of President Obama's admin is as accurate as your "130K max!" prediction.
 
ashurbanipal said:
The problem is that, here in America, thanks to generations of economic idiocy, without those dollars, people start to starve to death after a few weeks.
Click to expand...

And a selfish greedy few couldn't care less and as a consequence once this virus runs its course I expect the US will have the highest death rate per million of any country on Earth ...... and even after that you still won't care :roll:
 
Mashmont said:
In truth today's 10,000 was a short jump, but it was what the three-day chart dictated.
Click to expand...
That happens when you move the goalposts.

Just 2 days ago, you predicted that there would be 81,642 cases... on 3/31. Are you going to use your "math" to figure out how much you blew that prediction?
 
ashurbanipal said:
So...here we are at March 27th, and there are 100,013 confirmed cases. It isn't midnight yet, so there will probably be a few more. Using Mashmont math, the predicted 175% increase is really 181% (which, for the rest of us who use regular math, would be an 81% increase). My other criticisms not withstanding, the prediction missed the mark by 6 points. Curve unflattening? Could be. I guess we will see.
Click to expand...

Also the manner of calculating is total nonsense. Because let us be honest, the 312% increase was an actual increase of a mere 10,000. Which when compared to the very low start point will always lead to ridiculously high percentages but it says nothing about the crisis.


Mar 16-19 4727 14332 312% increase numerical growth 9,605 which is a daily average of 2,401
Mar 17-20 6507 19762 304% increase numerical growth 13,225 which is a daily average of 3,314
Mar 18-21 9421 26881 285% increase numerical growth 17,460 which is a daily average of 4,365
Mar 19-22 14332 35226 245% increase numerical growth 20,894 which is a daily average of 5,401
Mar 20-23 19762 46455 218% increase numerical growth 26,683 which is a daily average of 6,671
Mar 21-24 26881 55225 205% increase numerical growth 28,344 which is a daily average of 7,086
Mar 22-25 35226 69222 196% increase numerical growth 33,996 which is a daily average of 8,499
Mar 23-26 46455 86043 185% increase numerical growth 39,588 which is a daily average of 10,355
Mar 24-27 55225 100,013 181% (according to ashurbanipal) numerical growth 44,788 which is a daily average of 11,197

And in 2 days or so the daily growth will be about 17,000 A DAY and possibly even rising further

This percentage stupidity is absolute nonsense, the 312% growth was daily growth of 2,401 while the 181% growth is 11,197. Tell me which is worse? The meaningless 312% figure or the actual daily growth average of 11,197?

In 12 days the number of daily infections has grown by almost 10,000 infections. That is not really flattening of any curve except the meaningless one Mashmont made up.
 
CaughtInThe said:
RUSH LIMBAUGH: "Folks, this coronavirus thing, I want to try to put this in perspective for you. It looks like the coronavirus is being weaponized as yet another element to bring down Donald Trump. Now, I want to tell you the truth about the coronavirus. (interruption) You think I’m wrong about this? You think I’m missing it by saying that’s … (interruption) Yeah, I’m dead right on this. The coronavirus is the common cold, folks."
Click to expand...

Interesting term to have used: "DEAD right"

At least subconscious Rush is dealing with the magnitude of the issue. Probably living in silent fear, aware he would be part of the vulnerable crowd.

Commercial Rush, however, realizes fuel for the G-5 is still expensive. Just keeping telling his very malleable, not so bright, "dittoheads" (another term I love) what they want to hear, and sign another ad contract.
 
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flogger said:
And a selfish greedy few couldn't care less and as a consequence once this virus runs its course I expect the US will have the highest death rate per million of any country on Earth ...... and even after that you still won't care :roll:
Click to expand...

Well...I will care--but my point was, it seems to me we are screwed one way or another thanks to the Nixon/Reagan/Clinton reworking of our economy that's led to a cult of maximum efficiency and just-in-time delivery that leaves 95% of Americans without any savings to speak of, and 95% of businesses in the same fix, thus requiring the economy to move forward or collapse. By "collapse," I mean the sort of severe collapse where people disappear and are never heard from again, mass looting and consequent murders, etc. It's happened before. As a back-of-the-envelope estimate, it'll only take another 3 months of present circumstances to get us there. About as many will die under that scenario as will from the virus.

Do I think it's moronic? Tragic? Ridiculous? Morally repugnant? All of the above. But a little over half of the people here believe in the myth that they are individuals completely not reliant on anyone else, and they keep voting for it. I hope maybe this will wake them up, but I suspect not.
 
Peter King said:
Also the manner of calculating is total nonsense. Because let us be honest, the 312% increase was an actual increase of a mere 10,000. Which when compared to the very low start point will always lead to ridiculously high percentages but it says nothing about the crisis.


Mar 16-19 4727 14332 312% increase numerical growth 9,605 which is a daily average of 2,401
Mar 17-20 6507 19762 304% increase numerical growth 13,225 which is a daily average of 3,314
Mar 18-21 9421 26881 285% increase numerical growth 17,460 which is a daily average of 4,365
Mar 19-22 14332 35226 245% increase numerical growth 20,894 which is a daily average of 5,401
Mar 20-23 19762 46455 218% increase numerical growth 26,683 which is a daily average of 6,671
Mar 21-24 26881 55225 205% increase numerical growth 28,344 which is a daily average of 7,086
Mar 22-25 35226 69222 196% increase numerical growth 33,996 which is a daily average of 8,499
Mar 23-26 46455 86043 185% increase numerical growth 39,588 which is a daily average of 10,355
Mar 24-27 55225 100,013 181% (according to ashurbanipal) numerical growth 44,788 which is a daily average of 11,197

And in 2 days or so the daily growth will be about 17,000 A DAY and possibly even rising further

This percentage stupidity is absolute nonsense, the 312% growth was daily growth of 2,401 while the 181% growth is 11,197. Tell me which is worse? The meaningless 312% figure or the actual daily growth average of 11,197?

In 12 days the number of daily infections has grown by almost 10,000 infections. That is not really flattening of any curve except the meaningless one Mashmont made up.
Click to expand...

Oh, you bet. I'm trying not to make a bunch of what I call kitchen-sink arguments (throwing everything at them including the kitchen sink); there's enough here for everyone to offer their criticisms.
 
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