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UPDATE: Curve Continues To Flatten - Just As Mashmont Predicted.

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We're gonna pretend this didn't happen?

Mashmont said:
I am a math wonk as everybody knows...

America is BRIMMING with optimism!!!!

Note. Predictions are in red. They have not happened yet.

3-Day: Cases Beg: Cases End:

Mar 18-21 6332 19862 313% increase
Mar 19-22 9572 27021 282% increase
Mar 20-23 14312 35409 247% increase
Mar 21-24 19862 46158 232% increase
Mar 22-25 27021 54428 201% increase
Mar 23-26 35409 66710 190% increase
Mar 27-30 46158 78468 170% increase
Mar 28-31 54428 81642 150% increase

Remember Mashmont's predictions, people. Only 10,400 deaths, max. Only 130,000 COVID cases, max. This wouldn't make a garden variety flu season. Can you say hoax?
Click to expand...
 
ecofarm said:
We're gonna pretend this didn't happen?
Click to expand...
I'm not :D

I've called him out on his failed predictions and goalpost-moving several times. He's blown multiple predictions in just two days.

Personally, though, I'm more amused that he apparently failed 7th grade math.
 
Crovax said:
Having 80% of the US infected by easter weekend is not a good thing
Click to expand...

It would be a great thing because that many would build an immunity from this particular CHINA Virus. What everyone her is forgetting is that not everyone gets this and not everyone has bad trouble with it.
 
JackA said:
You're a self described "scientist" who doesn't learn. The idea of flattening an epidemic's curve by the percentage decline in infections is simply stupid. This is explained in your mirror thread but the explanation of course didn't sink in. One look at your numbers, going from 4,727 to 96,643 in less than two weeks, is not quite the good news you think it is.
Click to expand...

Just means more were tested is all.
 
Paradoxical said:
It would be a great thing because that many would build an immunity from this particular CHINA Virus. What everyone her is forgetting is that not everyone gets this and not everyone has bad trouble with it.
Click to expand...

No doctor that's wrong. No one agrees with that
 
Mashmont said:
Yeah, but since when do Communists tell the truth? They never have. And China has lied bigtime three months ago.
Click to expand...

That's why the virus spread do much. Before they let the cat out of the bag, there were many flights of infected Chinese that came here by plane and we know what happened next, don't we. Thank you China.
 
zyzygy said:
The rule is that if Masmont makes a claim, it's wrong.
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talk radio is often wrong but they do it in a very shady way and normally give themselves a way out.

i guess that's the next step in his evolution.
 
Mashmont said:
Guys, recall a couple of days ago, the president ignited the stock market by proclaiming America would be open for business Easter week. Looks like the great man's optimism worked. DJIA has risen 3000 points in three days!! Now the libs have to give him credit for this giant boost since they did the same for 0bummer in 2009 when the market went up after he tanked it.

The president's optimism is borne out by the current trend which, for eight days running, saw the 3-day rolling average increse DROP yet again. Mashmont is still sticking with the view the curve will be going downhill Easter week as the president proclaims. Recall, I was the only scientist saying this a few days ago. Now others have joined in. The differs sharply from the leftwing 'scientists' saying this current cycle could go through mid-to-late summer (absurd!)

I am now getting my past numbers from infection2020.com. Here are the numbers, and here are the predictions for the next three days in red: Let's see how we do.

Mar 16-19 4727 14332 312% increase
Mar 17-20 6507 19762 304% increase
Mar 18-21 9421 26881 285% increase
Mar 19-22 14332 35226 245% increase
Mar 20-23 19762 46455 218% increase
Mar 21-24 26881 55225 205% increase
Mar 22-25 35226 69222 196% increase
Mar 23-26 46455 86043 185% increase
Mar 24-27 55225 96643 175% increase
Mar 25-28 69222 114909 166% increase
Mar 26-29 86043 134227 156% increase
Click to expand...

Mash, I'm going to make this very simple for you.

Let's look at a chart that comes from the website that you linked to. We will assume for the moment that every one of your numbers, not including predictions, are correct.

Covy 03-27-20.jpg

Now you tell me, Mashmont. According to the above graph from the website that you provided, is the curve flattening? Yes or no. Very simple question. :)
 
Paradoxical said:
It would be a great thing because that many would build an immunity from this particular CHINA Virus. What everyone her is forgetting is that not everyone gets this and not everyone has bad trouble with it.
Click to expand...

The 2 million or so that die from it might find it an inconvenience
 
Mashmont said:
....... for eight days running, saw the 3-day rolling average increse DROP yet again. Mashmont is still sticking with the view the curve will be going downhill Easter week as the president proclaims. Recall, I was the only scientist saying this a few days ago. Now others have joined in. The differs sharply from the leftwing 'scientists' saying this current cycle could go through mid-to-late summer (absurd!)

I am now getting my past numbers from infection2020.com. Here are the numbers, and here are the predictions for the next three days in red: Let's see how we do.

Mar 16-19 4727 14332 312% increase
Mar 17-20 6507 19762 304% increase
Mar 18-21 9421 26881 285% increase
Mar 19-22 14332 35226 245% increase
Mar 20-23 19762 46455 218% increase
Mar 21-24 26881 55225 205% increase
Mar 22-25 35226 69222 196% increase
Mar 23-26 46455 86043 185% increase
Mar 24-27 55225 96643 175% increase
Mar 25-28 69222 114909 166% increase
Mar 26-29 86043 134227 156% increase
Click to expand...

Yes there is a decreasing % of increase. That doesn't mean the actual number of cases are decreasing it just means is they are not increasing as fast as they did at the beginning of the epidemic.
Mar 21-24 26881 55225 205% increase
Mar 22-25 35226 69222 196% increase
Mar 23-26 46455 86043 185% increase
Mar 24-27 55225 96643 175% increase
Mar 25-28 69222 114909 166% increase
Mar 26-29 86043 134227 156% increase
-----------------------------------------------------------hypothetical extension of % increases (and yes the numbers are not consistent )until the numbers are the same or very close in which case the % increase would be at or near !00%. How does that make sense?
Mar 27-30 90000-----135000.-----150%........increase
Mar 28-31 100000-----140000-----140%--------increase
Mar 29-01 120000-----142000-----118%-------increase
Mar 30-02 145000-----145000-----100%-------- increase?????? actual % of increase is 0%. And why aren't you presenting the % increase in the standard way(Mar 26-29. 86043......134227 =56% increase)
 

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Phys251 said:
Mash, I'm going to make this very simple for you.
Now you tell me, Mashmont. According to the above graph from the website that you provided, is the curve flattening? Yes or no. Very simple question. :)
Click to expand...

When Mashmont lies on his side it appears to flatten, yes. :mrgreen:

Have you seen this? It's an interactive model just published by the University of Washington. You can follow along day-by-day, and also by state.
 
Phys251 said:
Mash, I'm going to make this very simple for you.

Let's look at a chart that comes from the website that you linked to. We will assume for the moment that every one of your numbers, not including predictions, are correct.

View attachment 67276546

Now you tell me, Mashmont. According to the above graph from the website that you provided, is the curve flattening? Yes or no. Very simple question. :)
Click to expand...

Yes it is, but you can't tell that by your graph. Let's say I compressed the dates into 2 inches. The graph would appear very steep. But if I spread it out, you could see the flattening. It's why mathematicians say you have to look at data, not drawings.
 
weaver2 said:
Yes there is a decreasing % of increase. That doesn't mean the actual number of cases are decreasing it just means is they are not increasing as fast as they did at the beginning of the epidemic.
Mar 21-24 26881 55225 205% increase
Mar 22-25 35226 69222 196% increase
Mar 23-26 46455 86043 185% increase
Mar 24-27 55225 96643 175% increase
Mar 25-28 69222 114909 166% increase
Mar 26-29 86043 134227 156% increase
-----------------------------------------------------------hypothetical extension of % increases (and yes the numbers are not consistent )until the numbers are the same or very close in which case the % increase would be at or near !00%. How does that make sense?
Mar 27-30 90000-----135000.-----150%........increase
Mar 28-31 100000-----140000-----140%--------increase
Mar 29-01 120000-----142000-----118%-------increase
Mar 30-02 145000-----145000-----100%-------- increase?????? actual % of increase is 0%. And why aren't you presenting the % increase in the standard way(Mar 26-29. 86043......134227 =56% increase)
Click to expand...

We know the numbers are increasing, but the rate of increase is decreasing. Showing it in the 'standard' way wouldn't demonstrate that.
 
zyzygy says that Mashmont fails yet again!
 
Mashmont said:
We know the numbers are increasing, but the rate of increase is decreasing. Showing it in the 'standard' way wouldn't demonstrate that.
Click to expand...
lol

The rate of change is not decreasing yet, and you're not using anything resembling any sort of standard method.

Let's look at some real numbers, and a real rate of change:

2020-03-27_17-16-20.jpg


And let's see how badly you're botching your predictions:

2020-03-27_17-13-31.jpg
 
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